Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 5
4 April 2016, 14:05 Comments: 0

By Elizabeth Belugina

The US dollar’s decline was tempered by good economic data released on Friday, but the dovish words by Janet Yellen still affect American currency. On Tuesday pay some attention to US trade balance at 12:30 GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD keeps consolidating around 1.1380 after its thrust to the upside at the end of March. There was news about tensions between Greece and the IMF, though the impact on the euro wasn’t high. The euro area’s Sentix investor confidence index increased marginally to 5.7 from the previous 5.5, but below market's expectations of 6.9. Producer prices declined more than forecast. On Tuesday Germany will release factory orders data at 06:00 GMT (good forecast). All in all, there are buyers for the euro. Increase above 1.1440 should open the way to 1.1500. Support is at 1.1355 and 1.1300.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision at 04:30 on Tuesday. The most interesting thing will be the RBA’s comments on the levels of Australian dollar. AUD/USD rose by almost 8% since the last meeting of the central bank. Although, the recent data from China and Australia were rather good, there’s a good chance that the regulator will try to make Aussie go down a bit, especially taking into account the fact that the Federal Reserve is now less hawkish. Support is at 0.7590 and 0.7550. Resistance is at 0.7680 (March 18 high).

USD/JPY is still vulnerable for more declines to 111.00/110.60. Japanese Prime Minister is expected to outline the specifics of budget at a cabinet meeting tomorrow and there may be talk of fiscal stimulus, which can benefit the yen. According to the Bank of Japan’s survey, Japanese companies' long-term inflation expectations weakened in March from three months ago. Still, for now traders are not focused on the Bank of Japan, and this weighs on the pair.

GBP/USD jumped to 1.4325, where it faces resistance. Britain will release services PMI at 08:30 GMT (the forecast is good). However, be careful of further longs, as pound risks being hit by political news. Support is at 1.4275, 1.4240 and 1.4200. Resistance is at 1.4350 and 1.4400.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: "Three Methods" put new heart into bears
5 April 2016, 10:19 Comments: 0

Galina Svetlova

USD/JPY: "Three Methods" put new heart into the bears

The market has been declining since an “Evening Star” was formed at the last high. Moreover, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which led to the more bearish pressure. So, it’s likely that the price is going to falling down until any bullish pattern arrives. As we can see on the Daily chart, all last candles are bearish and we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, today’s candle is probably going to be a black one.

USD/JPY: "Three Methods" put new heart into the bears

We’ve got a “High Wave” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low, but they haven’t been confirmed yet. It’s likely to see a bullish correction during the day. If the price faces a resistance on the 21 Moving Average, then it’ll be an opportunity to see a new low shortly.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: bears poking fun at bulls in the Pennant
6 April 2016, 06:50 Comments: 0

Sergey Logachev

GBP/USD: bears poking fun at bulls in the "Pennant"

The price has been falling down since a “Triple Top” arrived at the last high. We’ve got a support at 1.4117, but this is likely not the end of the current bearish rally. The market is probably going to get a support at 1.4052. If so, bulls will have an opportunity to achieve a resistance at 1.4170.

GBP/USD: bears poking fun at bulls in the "Pennant"

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the up trend line has been broken. There’s a possible “Pennant” pattern, so the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.4056. If a pullback appears from this level, then it’ll be a chance to see at least a local correction.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 7
6 April 2016, 14:45 Comments: 0

By Elizabeth Belugina

The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed that many members of the central bank are not keen to raise interest rates because of the global uncertainty. Thus the US dollar got another blow. Moreover, oil prices surged by more than 5% as US crude inventories fell for the first time in 2 months.

EUR/USD tested the upper border of the range in the 1.1450 area. However, the single currency lacks strength for further growth ahead of the release of the ECB March meeting minutes at 11:30 GMT and speeches of Mario Draghi and his colleagues. Support is at 1.1350 and 1.1305. There may be buying interest on the dips.

GBP/USD remains volatile. There will be no news from the UK, so the pair’s moves are speculative. Support is at 1.4000 (psychological level) and 1.3930. Resistance is at 1.4170.

USD/JPY fell to 108.60 as traders don’t think that Japanese authorities are able to stop the yen from strengthening. Experts say that currency interventions are unlikely unless the pair falls to 105.00/100.00. The Bank of Japan’s pledge to do more easing if necessary also has little effect on the market’s mood. Next support is at 197.90, while resistance lies at 109.20.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: series of "V" tops
8 April 2016, 06:56 Comments: 0

Sergey Logachev

EUR/USD: series of "V" tops

The main trend remains bullish. There's a flat in progress above the upper side of “Triangle” pattern. The market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1326 in the short term. If a pullback arrives, then bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.1437.

EUR/USD: series of "V" tops

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the last upward channel has been broken, but then the price got a support at 1.1356, so bears couldn't do anything. At the same time, it's likely to see a local downward movement towards a support at 1.1341 – 1.1326 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this area, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.1376 – 1.1409.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: bulls has broken the downtrend line
11 April 2016, 06:36 Comments: 0

Sergey Logachev

GBP/USD: bulls has broken the downtrend line

The price has been moving in a range since the downward trend line was broken. We've got a “V-Bottom” pattern above a support at 1.3995, which led to the current flat. The pair is likely going to get a resistance at 1.4170 – 1.4194. If a pullback from this area arrives, then bears will have an opportunity to return to the market. So, we should cast wary eye at a support at 1.4052 – 1.3995.

GBP/USD: bulls has broken the downtrend line

There's a flat in progress, which led to break the local downtrend line. The 55 Moving Average acts as a resistance, so the market is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.4170 – 1.4190. If we see a pullback from this area, then bears will have a chance to achieve a support at 1.4081 – 1.4056.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 12
11 April 2016, 13:44 Comments: 1

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar index fell to 94.00. Later on Monday the Federal Reserve will hold a closed meeting on interest rates. The last time the Fed conducted such meeting was in November 2015, ahead of the rate hike. However, given the dovish position of the Fed’s head Janet Yellen, traders don’t expect the same to happen this time. However, the Fed will release an announcement sometime after 18:00 GMT, and we should learn more about the regulator’s position from it.

Oil prices represent another important market mover. A very important meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will take place on April 17.

Global stocks rose on Monday, but the positive movement may be brief as the earnings season starts in the US, and the figures will likely be bad.

EUR/USD keeps trading sideways with a small upward bias. Support is at 1.1380, 1.1330 and 1.1300. Resistance is at 1.1455 and 1.1500. No news from the euro area, message from the Fed is in focus.

GBP/USD jumped to 1.4250 on Monday retracing more than 50% of the decline from 1.4460 to 1.4000. The UK will release inflation data at 08:30 GMT. The market expects an improvement in the UK inflation figures, though traders don’t think that the Bank of England will change policy or sound more hawkish at its meeting on Thursday. As a result, we prefer selling GBP/USD on attempts to get higher. Resistance is at 1.4320, 1.4350 and 1.4400. Support is at 1.4180, 1.4135 and 1.4055.

USD/JPY recovered for the second time from the levels below 107.70. Targets for correction up lie at 108.75, 109.10 and 109.50. Break below 107.60 will open the way down to bigger support at 106.60.

If AUD/USD closes the day above 0.7600, it will turn to 0.7670. Failure will result in decline to 0.7500.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

XAU/USD: gold is targeting higher levels
12 April 2016, 07:50 Comments: 0

Daily. It seems that corrective wave [E] still wasn’t finished. At the final section we see the formation of the final part of the upward triple Zigzag – wave (z).

H4. We assume that after the wave (X) was over the pair started developing Zigzag (Z). Today and in the next trading days we expect the price to keep moving towards 1284.2. Then the asset will reverse down.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Trading plan for April 13: beware the Chinese dragon
12 April 2016, 15:24 Comments: 0

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar still remains vulnerable with the USD Index holding below 95 points. Investors remain skeptical about the Fed’s tightening prospects on the April 27 meeting. What’s more, the US currency is hurt by the strong oil market recovery: Brent price broke above 43 dollars on Tuesday. Such а positive market sentiment could be hurt by China’s trade balance on Wednesday – beware the risk. Tomorrow you should also watch US retail sales and PPI: upbeat forecasts pave the ground for a local USD retracement.

EUR/USD is consolidating slightly below the 1.1400 mark. On Tuesday, bulls were trying to break this figure to the upside, but faced strong resistance at 1.1460. In the medium term, we expect the US Dollar to extend the upside, but the 1.1450/1.1510 area is a hard nut to crack. Key support – 1.1350.

GBP/USD has also pushed to the upside on strong UK labor market figures, but was capped by 1.4350. You may see a long-legged candle being formed on the daily chart. The 55-day MA is now acting as a resistance, so we expect the pair to retest 1.4050 in the coming sessions.

As for USD/JPY, a local double bottom is being formed here with a neckline at 108.40. Correction could extend to 109.00.

What’s more, the USD/CAD pair is worth observing these days. Bears are dominating for a third consecutive day. Break below the strong support at 1.2800 (March highs) would pave the ground for more downside. Bank of Canada is scheduled to meet on Wednesday – negative comments about the CAD’s strength could become a temporary risk for our bearish forecast.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: "Three Methods" helped to bears
13 April 2016, 10:00 Comments: 0

Galina Svetlova

EUR/USD: "Three Methods" helped to bears

Despite of a “Shooting Star” and an “Engulfing” at the last high, the current decline looks like just a local correction. The price has reached the 55 Moving Average, which could act as a support, so a small bullish movement is a likely possible in the next few hours. Anyway, the main target for bears is the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “High Wave” and a “Doji”, which both have been confirmed, so today’s candle is likely going to be a black one.

EUR/USD: "Three Methods" helped to bears

We’ve got a very bearish “Shooting Star” with a quite long shadow, which led to the current downward movement. The price found a lodgement under the Moving Average lines. We don't have any reversal patterns so far, but the market is likely going to taste the 144 Moving Average once again. If a pullback from this line happens, it's be a chance for bears to deliver a new low.