BEST COMMODITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BY CAPITAL STREET FX

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Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold dips, Copper rallies, Oil soars, Gas falters.​

Introduction​

Gold (XAU/USD) closes the week with a slight dip, hovering just above $2,018, marking a 0.55% weekly loss. Key indicators show subdued buying momentum, reflecting a pause after December’s rally. Meanwhile, the USD’s recovery, driven by changing bets on the Federal Reserve, exerts downward pressure. Copper prices ease, but a strong week is expected amid China optimism. Oil settles at an eight-week high, fueled by robust U.S. economic growth and Chinese stimulus, while natural gas faces declines due to storage dynamics, production fluctuations, and lighter demand forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

XAU/USD Trades Mildly Lower And Closes A Losing Week After US PCE Figures.​

The XAU/USD experiences a slight decrease, holding slightly above $2,018 with a minor pullback. Key indicators such as RSI and MACD demonstrate a subdued buying momentum, as bulls consolidate December’s rally. On Friday’s session, the XAU/USD was seen trading at $2,018, presenting a slight decline of 0.08% and closing a 0.55% weekly loss. After reaching a level of $2,135 in December, buyers have been largely taking a pause, suggesting a neutral to a bullish outlook on the daily chart. Despite some momentum observed in the four-hour chart, the indicators remain relatively weak. In addition, the USD recovery fueled by markets adjusting their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to the US economy showing resilience is pushing the metal lower.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2024.17 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2028.83 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2019.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2024.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2032.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2029.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.09 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 25.67 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
• S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.54

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2023.48 | Take Profit: 1984.79 | Stop Loss: 2049.27

COPPER​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold is steady, silver falters, oil surges, and gas puzzles despite drops.​

Introduction​

Gold prices maintain modest gains ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, finding support in Middle East tensions and declining US bond yields. Traders remain cautious amid geopolitical concerns, with a drone attack near the Syrian border impacting sentiment. Meanwhile, silver slips below $23.00, signaling a potential downtrend, while oil climbs on escalating Middle East tensions. As weather forecasts suggest light national demand, natural gas futures decline despite a significant storage drop.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

Gold Price Sticks To Modest Gains Ahead Of Fed Meeting.​

Gold price draws some support from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Sliding US bond yields also benefit the XAU/USD, though the uptick lacks follow-through. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting. Investors set off the critical week, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements, on a cautious footing after a Reuters report quoted US President Joe Biden and officials stating that three US service members were killed. Dozens may be wounded after an unmanned aerial drone attack on US forces stationed in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border. The US economic docket is relatively light on Monday, and hence, the geopolitical developments and the pre-Fed positioning could influence the Gold price action.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2025.63 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 2029.15 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 2020.25 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2022.17 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 2031.21 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 2030.98 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 51.10 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 36.02 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
• S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.54

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2032.20 | Take Profit: 2168.19 | Stop Loss: 1887.65

SILVER​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil spikes, gas drops 8%, gold gains, copper challenges.​

Introduction​

WTI crude oil sees a slight uptick amid rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, although concerns over demand in China may limit gains ahead of the FOMC. Traders eye the API report on US stockpiles for short-term opportunities. Meanwhile, natural gas experiences its largest daily decline in nearly two weeks due to an outage at Freeport LNG and milder weather forecasts. Gold prices rise as US bond yields fall, fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Investors await cues from the upcoming FOMC meeting. Copper futures, previously boosted by China’s monetary stimulus, face pressure amid doubts about its impact on economic challenges in the country.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL​

WTI Ticks Higher Amid Geopolitical Risks, China Demand Concerns Cap The Upside.​

WTI attracts some buyers on Tuesday amid fears about supply disruptions in the Middle East. Demand concerns in China could act as a headwind for the commodity ahead of the FOMC. Traders now look to the API report on US stockpiles for short-term opportunities on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices ticked higher during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seem to have stalled the previous day’s rejection slide from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) or a nearly two-month peak. A further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continues to fuel supply concerns and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the black liquid.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 75.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 74.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 74.93 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 75.38 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 73.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 73.60 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.37 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 81.10 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 75.38 R2 : 77.52
• S1 : 68.47 S2 : 66.33

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 75.64 | Take Profit: 79.00 | Stop Loss: 73.58

NATURAL GAS​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Deciphering global markets amid tensions and uncertainties.​

Introduction​

Oil prices decline on weak China data, impacting demand sentiment. Despite this, they are poised for their first monthly gain since September due to escalating Middle East conflicts causing supply concerns. Meanwhile, positive IMF forecasts boost crude oil prospects. In other markets, corn futures fall on weak demand outlook, and gold and silver prices respond to geopolitical tensions and await the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for further direction.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL​

Oil Falls On Weak China Data; Set For First Monthly Gain Since Sept.​

Oil fell on Wednesday as lackluster economic data in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, weighed on demand sentiment, but prices were set for their first monthly gain since September as broadening Middle East conflicts raised supply concerns. Crude oil prices may experience a positive impact following the recent update on global economic growth by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF has revised its forecast, indicating expectations of stronger growth, particularly in the economies of the United States and China.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 81.29 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 80.19 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 80.11 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 81.07 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 79.42 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 78.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 59.63 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 78.74 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82
• S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.15 | Take Profit: 83.99 | Stop Loss: 79.50

CORN​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Explore gold defiance, copper’s challenge, oil rally, and gas amid the turmoil.​

Introduction​

Gold prices defy a Fed stance on prolonged higher interest rates, gaining ground amid safe-haven demand fueled by Middle East tensions. The precious metal’s ascent is tempered by a resurgent dollar. In contrast, copper retreated from a one-month peak, impacted by mixed signals from China’s economic outlook. Oil prices rise as the U.S. Federal Reserve hints at potential rate cuts and China unveils measures to support its property market. Natural gas futures see modest gains despite bearish weather forecasts and lower industrial demand attributed to a Freeport LNG outage.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

Gold Prices Rise Even As Fed Shoots Down Early Rate-Cut Hopes.​

Gold prices rose on Thursday and were undeterred by the Federal Reserve stating that it will likely keep interest rates higher for longer, while safe-haven buying amid an ongoing conflict in the Middle East also aided the yellow metal. The Fed’s comments spurred a sharp reversal in risk-driven markets, particularly stocks, on Wednesday. This in turn fueled increased safe-haven demand for gold. The yellow metal was also aided by increased demand as a conflict between U.S.-led forces and the Yemen-based Houthi Group worsened. Further gains in the yellow metal were held back by a sharp rebound in the dollar, which traded close to seven-week highs.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2032.12 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 2031.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 2022.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2028.32 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 2029.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 2033.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.73 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 63.81 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2069.38 R2 : 2087.55
• S1 : 2010.57 S2 : 1992.40

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2037.55 | Take Profit: 2057.85 | Stop Loss: 2024.77

COPPER​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Gas, Corn Soar, Oil Rises, Gold Steady.​

Introduction​

U.S. natural gas futures are on the rise as the market anticipates the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) storage report, expected to reveal a significant draw. Projections suggest a draw of approximately -200 to -203 billion cubic feet (Bcf), surpassing the five-year average. Mild weather conditions contribute to lower gas demand, creating volatility in the market. In other commodities, corn futures see midweek gains, while oil prices rise after OPEC+ maintains current output policies. Gold prices remain steady at $2,050, benefiting from a weakened dollar ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data release.

Markets In Focus Today – NATURAL GAS​

Natural Gas Futures Edge Up Ahead Of EIA Report.​

EIA report likely shows natural gas storage draw amid low demand and production downturn due to Freeport LNG issues. EIA report to reveal significant natural gas storage draw. Mild U.S. weather patterns lead to low gas demand. U.S. natural gas futures are experiencing an uptick as the market braces for the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report. Expected volatility surrounds the report, with predictions pointing to a significant draw of around -200 to -203 billion cubic feet (Bcf), exceeding the five-year average of -185 Bcf. Contributing factors include varied temperatures across the U.S., with warmer conditions in the west and east and cooler temperatures from the Plains to Texas.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2.36 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2.57 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2.60 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 36.41 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator : 5.74 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 3.07 R2 : 3.33
• S1 : 2.20 S2 : 1.93

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2.20 | Take Profit: 2.01 | Stop Loss: 2.34

CORN​

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Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil, gas, gold turmoil, silver rises.​

Introduction​

Oil prices face a weekly decline, influenced by hopes for a Gaza ceasefire and a stronger dollar, eroding the supply risks premium. Natural gas experiences a decline due to a storage draw falling short of demand, impacted by mild weather predictions. Gold slumps below $2,040 as upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls lift Treasury yields, affecting XAU/USD. Meanwhile, silver rose over 1% to $23.17, supported by central bank decisions and declining global bond yields.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL​

Oil Prices In Weekly Slump As Gaza Ceasefire Hopes, Stronger Dollar Bite.​

Oil prices fell Friday, to end the week deep in the red as growing optimism over an extended ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war cooled the supply risks premium baked into prices. Faltering growth in China and the possibility of some easing of tensions in the Middle East also reduced prices. High-interest rates, which tend to dampen economic growth and oil demand, in major economies like the United States and the eurozone appear to be here to stay in the near term. A stronger dollar makes oil, priced in the U.S. dollars, more expensive and less attractive to foreign buyers.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 80.00 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 79.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 79.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 80.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 79.32 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 78.60 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.65 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 31.58 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 83.35 R2 : 85.56
• S1 : 76.22 S2 : 74.01

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 78.31 | Take Profit: 75.73 | Stop Loss: 80.06

NATURAL GAS​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil surges, gas constraints, gold slides, copper boosted.​

Introduction​

Oil prices rose on Monday as the US plans additional strikes in the Middle East, while Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s largest refinery. The rebound follows last week’s 7% drop, driven by stronger US jobs data and progress in Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks. Concerns about the Middle East conflict persist, impacting oil markets. In the natural gas sector, withdrawals from storage fell short of demand, with expectations of a reversal due to mild weather. Gold prices slide as the dollar surges, fueled by reduced rate-cut expectations. Copper sees a slight rise amid supply concerns in Chile, the world’s top copper producer.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL​

Oil Inches Up As US Plans More Strikes In Mideast, Ukraine Hits Russian Refinery.​

Oil prices nudged higher on Monday, recovering from sharp falls last week, after Washington pledged to launch further strikes on Iran-backed groups in the Middle East and as Ukrainian drones struck southern Russia’s largest refinery. Both benchmarks ended last week down about 7%. They fell 2% on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data suggested interest rate cuts could be further out than expected and on progress in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Investors remained wary of any escalation in the Middle East conflict after the U.S. signaled further strikes on Iran-backed groups in the Middle East in response to a deadly attack on U.S. troops in Jordan.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 79.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 79.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 79.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 80.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 79.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 78.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.02 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 17.15 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 83.36 R2 : 85.57
• S1 : 76.22 S2 : 74.02

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 76.99 | Take Profit: 74.82 | Stop Loss: 78.59

NATURAL GAS​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Crude up, Silver down, Gold eyes $2,000.​

Introduction​

WTI crude oil prices hover around $72.90 amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The US Dollar’s slight decline supports the uptick, but concerns about global supply disruptions due to Middle East tensions and Russia’s actions in Ukraine may limit the downside. Gold steadies near $2,000 as the dollar rally pauses, with the near-term outlook influenced by worries about prolonged US interest rates. Corn futures show mixed midday movement, rebounding from earlier weakness. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) hit a two-week low at $22.25, dropping over 1.40%, impacted by rising US Treasury yields and Powell’s hawkish stance on interest rates.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL​

WTI Recovers Some Lost Ground Near $73.00 Amid Ongoing Middle East Tension.​

WTI prices attract some buyers near $72.90 amid the ongoing Middle East tension. The upbeat US economic data might convince the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep its benchmark rate higher for longer. The US launched retaliatory airstrikes on Friday against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and allied militias in Iraq and Syria. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.90 on Tuesday. WTI prices edge higher on the modest decline of US dollars (USD). The downside of WTI prices might be capped by concerns that tensions in the Middle East and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine could curb global supplies.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 74.2361 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 74.2010 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 74.7017 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 75.3019 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 74.1892 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 73.3012 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.8300 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 22.3991 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 73.59 | Take Profit: 71.40 | Stop Loss: 75.09

GOLD​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, oil, investment trends.​

Introduction​

Gold prices remain range-bound amid persistent fears of a rate cut. Despite a slight relief as the dollar retreats from three-month highs, uncertainties loom due to diminished expectations of early U.S. interest rate adjustments. Bullion faces pressure from bets on prolonged higher interest rates, influenced by robust U.S. economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve comments. In the commodities market, copper edges lower ahead of crucial cues from China, impacted by concerns over slowing demand. Oil prices rise for the third consecutive day on lower-than-expected U.S. crude stockpiles, contributing to a balanced 2024 outlook. Natural gas futures slide as warmer weather outweighs potential mid-month cold.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

Gold Prices Range Bound As Rate Cut Fears Persist.​

Gold prices moved little on Wednesday but saw some relief as the dollar eased from three-month highs, although waning bets on early U.S. interest rate cuts kept the outlook for the yellow metal uncertain. Bullion prices were battered by bets on higher-for-longer interest rates, especially following a slew of strong U.S. economic readings and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields had surged on these signals. While the dollar fell slightly from three-month highs on Wednesday, the greenback was still sitting on strong gains so far in 2024.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2033.6296 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2033.0816 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2024.4301 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2033.5021 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2030.8546 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 2034.6432 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.1219 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 42.6026 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
• S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2036.80 | Take Profit: 2057.10 | Stop Loss: 2024.01

COPPER​

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