My forex analysis

[radex78]

Yesterday's gold price fell to a low of $2350 from a high of $2390 today. Gold failed to continue its upward trend and returned to the band.

In post-NFP Friday trading, the price of gold fell to a low level of $2350 then soared to $2392. The price is now back to the $2350 range which may be the current support zone.

Today Jerome Powell will testify in Washington DC about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee which may interest investors to see the hawkish or dovish side of the answer to the previously unexpected question.

Next, there was Yellen Speaks speech and FOMC member Bowman Speaks which also covered today's fundamental news.

But Powell's testimony favored markets because of his important role. As head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the nation's currency than anyone else.

Powell will provide 2 testimonies by reading a previously prepared statement and answering unscripted questions where he will answer unknown questions in advance.

The moment may provide subtle clues about future monetary policy that is possible to drive the market.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price pullback into the Bollinger band again after breaking out of the upper band line at the weekend. Bollinger bands appear to draw a flat channel with narrow bands reflecting the price may be moving in a range.

VB high points to a value of 56 and VB low points to a value of 42, there is a narrowing of the Bollinger band according to TDI reflecting a decrease in volatility.

Market Base Line (MBS) shows a value of 49 with Trend Signal Line 53 and RSI price line 58.

XAUUSD H4

Price moves below the middle band line with a flat drawing band reflecting sideways or perhaps a change in trend. If the price falls, perhaps $2242 will act as a dynamic support.

VB High on the TDI indicator shows a value of 76 and VB Low shows a value of 47, the spacing is stretched, reflecting an increase in volatility.
The MBS line shows a value of 62, the trend may tend to rise. However, the Trade Signal Line shows a value of 57 cross MBS from upside, reflecting a short-term downtrend signal.

The RSI price line points to a value of 53, allowing the price to still be in the bullish level zone.

 

[radex78]

Silver was steady in the range of 30-31 price level yesterday. Price draws a doji candlestick with the wicks on the top and bottom of the candle.

The price is consolidating near the upper band line, after last weekend the silver price jumped to 31,489. However, it failed to continue its rise and fell again to a low of 30,424.

There is a triangle pattern that reflects reduced supply and demand. The market may still be waiting for Powell's testimony to support investors in responding to the Fed official's comments.

According to CME's FedWatch Tool, there is an increase in investors' expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Although lawmakers are pressuring Powell to lower interest rates, Powell is likely to keep interest rates high for longer.

Silver has a positive correlation with gold, often when gold rises silver also rises, but sometimes there are different moving average anomalies between gold and silver.

Silver D1

The price moves to form a symmetrical triangle pattern, this allows for a trend continuation scenario.
The upper band line is slightly expanding, indicating rising volatility.

VB high on TDI points to a value of 65 and VB low points to a value of 41, reflecting somewhat reduced volatility.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 53, the major trend may tends to be bullish.

The RSI price line points to level 57, indicating that the price trend tends to be bullish.

Trend Signal line points to the value 55, trying to cross the RSI price line from the upper side.

Silver H4

Price consolidation at the middle band line. Bollinger bands have deflated somewhat, indicating somewhat reduced volatility.

The TDI Market Base Line shows a value of 65, the market may be more likely to be bullish.

VB high is 77 and VB low is 52, reflecting an upward trend with somewhat reduced volatility

The RSI price line points to level 53, the price is above the uptrend level. Trade signal line 57, drawing a descending line indicates that the uptrend is weakened.

 

[radex78]

Yesterday the price of GBPUSD rose to a high of 1.28480 from a low of 1.27817. The price drew a long body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow.

Powell's statement may have pushed the USD slightly lower amid the US economy, which is cooling, thereby increasing speculation about the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates sooner.

Today investors will probably focus on CPI and Unemployment Claims data. Core CPI CPI Ex Food and Energy is predicted at 0.2% from previous data of 0.2%. CPI price of goods and services purchased by consumers is expected to be 0.1% from the previous 0.0%. CPI Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers year after year is expected to be 3.1% from previous data of 3.3%.

The next economic calendar schedule Unemployment Claims is predicted to be 236k from the previous 238k.
Investors may respond after the release of the actual news data mentioned.

GBPUSD D1

GBPUSD price is moving near the upper band line of the standard setting. Expanding bands reflect rising volatility away from the mean.

TDI's VB high shows a value of 70 and VB low shows a value of 41, reflecting high volatility.

TDI's Market Base Line (MBL) points to level 56, a higher bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 66, the trend is more bullish.

The Trade Signal Line points to level 62, crossing the MBL line reflects bullishness.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD price is moving near the upper band line at 1.28484. The band expands slightly which allows volatility to rise.

VB high points to level 81 and VB Low points to level 55, indicating bulls at medium volatility.

The Market Base Line (MBL) points to a value of 68 indicating a higher bullish weight.

RSI Price Line points to level 73, price is in the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line points to level 61 drawing an ascending channel but has not yet crossed MBL

 

[radex78]

Gold prices surged on Thursday from a low of $2370 to a high of $2424. Price draws a long body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow.

The soaring gold price was due to US CPI data showing a slowdown in the US economy. The actual data was smaller than the forecast, causing the USD to weaken.

According to Forexfactory, Core CPI fell 0.1% from previous data of 0.2% and forecast of 0.2%. Monthly CPI fell with a negative value at -1% from earlier data of 0.0% and forecast of 0.1%. Annual CPI fell at 3.0% from the previous 3.3% and forecast 3.1%.

Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims data fell to 222k from previous data of 239k and forecast of 236k.

Slowing US economic data could increase speculation about the Fed lowering interest rates. However, it seems that Powell is trying to act carefully despite pressure from lawmakers. The Fed may cut interest rates in September.

In front of lawmakers he said he would wait until the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, fell below the Fed's target before taking action. This increases speculation the Fed may cut interest rates sooner when the barometer has been met.
CME's FedWatch tool continues to see the Fed's probability increase to 91.2%.

Apart from US economic data, the soaring gold price can also be caused by central bank purchases worldwide, despite news that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) stopped buying gold for two consecutive months in June.

Today the market will still be waiting for core monthly CPI and monthly PPI data and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, which may be able to drive the USD price.

XAUUSD D1

Gold prices moved slightly above the upper band line. Strong buyer pressure causes the price to cross the upper band line. Expanding Bollinger bands reflect increased volatility.

TDI's Market Base Line (MBL) points to level 50, reflecting a neutral signal. MBL is usually used to see long-term trends.

VB high points to level 58. VB Low points to level 42 indicating increased volatility.

The RSI price line points to level 63, indicating an uptrend market.

The trade signal line points to level 57 reflecting bullish sentiment.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price is now at $2411 at the time of writing. Gold prices are consolidating after yesterday's long rally near the upper band line. An expanding Bollinger band reflects a high price deviation that has occurred.

MBL TDI points to level 62 here indicating an uptrend in the long term.

VB high points to 77 and VB Low points to level 46, an indication of high volatility.

The RSI signal line points to level 74 indicating that prices are in the overbought zone, allowing a reversal or retracement.

The trade signal line pointing to level 68 crosses MBL from the downside indicating a change in trend.

 

[radex78]

This week the British pound sterling seems to be one of the stronger currencies. This can be seen from GBPUSD soaring and EURGBP falling.

EURGBP lin Friday extended its downward streak and drew a long-body bearish candlestick with a small shadow on the top candle. Price reached a low of 0.83911 from a high of 0.84210.

The strengthening of the Pound Sterling is thought to be due to the stable political conditions in England. the direct victory of Keir Starmer's Labor Party in the parliamentary elections, which resulted in the most stable political conditions in the United Kingdom (UK).

UK GDP data also shows the country's economic performance experiencing unexpected growth which reduces the possibility of a BoE interest rate cut in August.

According to Forexfactory data, UK GDP rose 0.4% from a forecast of 0.2% and previous 0.0%. Rising GDP growth provided fuel for the strengthening of the GBP.

According to Reuters by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. However, there are other concerns about high service prices and rising wages.

 

[radex78]

Today's gold price is in uncertainty ahead of the release of the New York Manufacturing Index and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks at the Economic Club of Washington DC.

Recently, the US was shocked by the news that Trump's campaign had a shooting incident that caused his right ear to bleed and killed a spectator. The shooter was shot dead by the Secret Service.

Last week the gold price drew a bearish candlestick with a long wick at the bottom of the candle, reflecting the price going down in the face of high buyer pressure so that the wick was longer than the candle body.

Monday's economic schedule that may be of interest to investors is the New York Manufacturing Index which surveys 200 New York state manufacturers to measure the relative level of general business conditions, values above 0.0 indicate an improving economy, and below 0.0 indicate worsening conditions.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Economic Club of Washington DC caught the attention of investors in the hope that audience questions might get hawkish or dovish answers regarding interest rate policy.

XAUUSD D1

The price of gold managed to cross the upper band line on July 11, but the price returned to the bands on July 12, although there was upward pressure after that.

The Bollinger band expands to reflect rising market volatility with the upper band line starting to move away from the middle band line.

VB high points to level 59, and VB Low points to level 42 indicating low volatility.

Market Base Line points to level 50 indicating neutral.

The RSI Price line points to level 60 indicating bullish sentiment for a higher chance.

Trade Signal Line points to level 57, indicating bullish still in hand.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price moves below the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw a slight upward channel with wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment on high market volatility.

VB High points to level 77. VB Low points to level 46 indicating high market volatility.

Market Base Line points to level 62 indicating bullish sentiment has a higher chance.

The RSI Price Line points to level 67 indicating that prices may tend to be above the uptrend level.

The Trade Signal Line pointing to level 69 indicates bullish sentiment.

RSI price line crosses the Trade signal line from the upside there are indications of retracement or pullback.