Daily FX Analysis – AUD Stable, USD/JPY, NZD, GBP Rise.
Introduction
The GBP/USD pair edges higher to 1.2630 in the early Asian session, supported by a weaker USD and increased UK house prices, indicating confidence that the Bank of England may not cut interest rates soon. Meanwhile, AUD/USD maintains gains above 0.6500 on mixed Chinese inflation data. NZD/USD holds positive ground above 0.6100 after strong New Zealand Q4 labor market data, suggesting potential further Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy tightening. USD/JPY sees modest gains above 148.00 amid dovish BoJ comments, while the Japanese Yen struggles amid declining real wages and household spending.
Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD
GBP/USD Drifts Higher To 1.2630 On Weaker USD, UK Higher House Prices.
The GBP/USD pair gained traction during the early Asian session on Thursday. The uptick in the major pair is bolstered by rising house prices in the UK, which supported bets that the Bank of England was not likely to cut interest rates soon. GBP/USD benefited from the improving risk mood on Tuesday and gained 0.5%, erasing a large portion of Monday’s losses in the process. Early Wednesday, the pair trades marginally higher on the day above 1.2600. Market participants will keep an eye on risk perception mid-week. According to the latest news, Qatar, acting as a mediator, said that Hamas had given a “generally positive” response to a proposed truce deal with Israel.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.2645 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2664 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2640 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.2655 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2678 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2675 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.6354 | Buy Zone | Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator : 38.9323 | Sell Zone | Positive
Daily FX Analysis – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD.
Introduction
GBP/USD steadies above 1.2600, showing resilience despite a softer USD. The pair struggles to extend gains from the 1.2570 region, maintaining a narrow range in early European trading. While upbeat US labor market figures lifted the Greenback, the Bank of England’s stance on delaying rate cuts may limit further losses. EUR/USD faces resistance near 1.0800 and the 100-day SMA, maintaining a struggle to break through. The pair hovers around 1.0770, influenced by a late loss of USD momentum and comments from ECB’s Robert Holzmann. AUD/USD trades near 0.6500 after RBA Bullock’s testimony, facing limited upside amid cautious market sentiment. USD/CAD rebounds near 1.3460 on lower crude prices and market caution amid Middle East tensions.
The GBP/USD struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish bounce of around 50 pips from the 1.2570 region and oscillates in a narrow band during the early European trading hours on Friday. Spot prices trade near the top end of the weekly range, around the 1.2620 area. On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair declined towards the 1.2615 level showing slight losses with upbeat US labor market figures benefiting the Greenback with Jobless claims from the week ending on February 3 coming in lower than expected. However, the Bank of England (BoE) holds a somewhat similar stance as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in delaying rate cuts so the losses may be limited.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.2637 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2658 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2638 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.2645 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2671 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2673 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.8720 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
Stochastic Oscillator : 38.8021 | Sell Zone | Positive
Weekly FX Analysis – GBP/EUR steady, AUD/USD, USD/JPY volatile.
Introduction
GBP/USD remains resilient above 1.2600 as the US Dollar struggles to gain strength amid lower-than-expected CPI revisions. After briefly dipping below 1.2600 on Thursday, the pair stabilized, influenced by hawkish Bank of England comments and improved risk sentiment. Meanwhile, EUR/USD inches higher near 1.0800 after US CPI revisions, maintaining a sideways trend. The Australian Dollar hovers around 0.6500, supported by RBA Governor Bullock’s commitment to managing inflation. USD/JPY approaches 150.00 as the focus shifts to US inflation data, with Fed policymakers maintaining a hawkish stance.
Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD
GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2600 As USD Fails To Gather Strength.
GBP/USD continued to fluctuate above 1.2600 on Friday as the US Dollar found it difficult to stay resilient against its major rivals. The data from the US showed that the monthly CPI increase for December was revised lower to 0.2% from 0.3%. GBP/USD declined below 1.2600 on Thursday but managed to stabilize above that level early Friday. In the absence of high-tier data releases, the risk perception could impact the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation. The USD benefited from recovering US Treasury bond yields on Thursday and weighed on GBP/USD. Hawkish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) officials and the modest improvement seen in risk mood, however, helped the pair erase its losses.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.2639 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2659 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2638 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.2646 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2671 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2673 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.0589 | Buy Zone | Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator : 40.2344 | Neutral Zone | Positive
The EUR/USD pair hovers around 1.0800, with attention on the ZEW survey and US CPI data. ECB’s Panetta hints at a potential rate cut, while the Fed considers economic data before adjusting rates. Meanwhile, GBP/USD sees modest gains, and the US Dollar struggles amid uncertainty. The Australian Dollar strengthens on risk-on sentiment, and the Japanese Yen remains subdued post-national holiday, influenced by BoJ’s dovish remarks. Traders await key US inflation figures.
Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD
EUR/USD Gains Ground Near 1.0800, ZEW Survey, US CPI Data Eyed.
EUR/USD holds positive ground around 1.0795 on the consolidation of USD.ECB’s Panetta said the moment is fast approaching for the ECB to cut rates, gradual steps might help to mitigate the volatility on markets. Many Fed officials agreed that the FOMC may review further economic data before lowering interest rates. The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers near 1.0800 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. Despite the lack of major US data releases last week, many Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will provide insight into the interest rate outlook later this week. The US inflation and Retail Sales for January will be the highlights this week. At press time, the major pair is trading at 1.0795, gaining 0.07% on the day.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.0797 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.0829 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.0855 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.0794 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.0831 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.0893 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.4182 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
Stochastic Oscillator : 29.6279 | Sell Zone | Positive
Daily FX Analysis – GBP up, EUR down, USD rebounds.
Introduction
GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2600, propelled by favorable UK labor market data, including a drop in the ILO Unemployment Rate to 3.8%. While the market maintains an optimistic stance, attention shifts to the US inflation report, anticipating potential impacts on the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Meanwhile, EUR/USD faces a bearish outlook, hovering below key levels, with a focus on US CPI data. USD/CAD breaks a five-day decline on market caution ahead of US inflation data, and NZD/USD declines on lower Kiwi Inflation Expectations in Q1.
Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD
GBP/USD Holds Comfortably Above 1.2600 After UK Labor Market Data.
GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.2650 in the European morning on Tuesday. The data from the UK showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate declined to 3.8% in December, while the annual wage inflation softened to 6.2% from 6.7%. An upbeat market mood is sponsoring a leg-up on the major, though it remains within familiar levels. Market participants are eyeing an inflation report in the United States (US) which is expected to fuel speculations for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Regarding monetary policy, the BoE is expected to slash rates by 80 basis points through 2024, less than the 110 bps at the beginning of the last week.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
MA 20 : 1.2655 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.2633 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
MA 20 : 1.2667 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2674 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.2925 | Buy Zone | Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator : 44.3336 | Neutral Zone | Positive
Daily FX Analysis – GBP falls, AUD holds, JPY rises, USD/CHF adjusts.
Introduction
“The GBP/USD faces a decline below 1.2600 following soft UK inflation data, amplifying the pressure on Pound Sterling. Meanwhile, robust US economic indicators suggest a prolonged period of higher interest rates, driving the pair to 1.2598. The Australian Dollar also grapples with US Dollar strength amid positive CPI numbers, while the Japanese Yen gains support from a shift in global risk sentiment and verbal intervention. USD/CHF, having reached an 11-week high, corrects slightly as investors anticipate continued US Dollar strength amid inflation concerns.”
Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD
GBP/USD Slumps Below 1.2600 After Soft UK Inflation Data.
GBP/USD lost its traction and declined below 1.2600 in the European session on Wednesday. The data from the UK showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.6% every month in January and weighed heavily on Pound Sterling. The GBP/USD plunges below 1.2600 as strong economic data from the United States (US) suggests the Federal Reserve (Fed) would keep interest rates higher for longer. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.2598 after hitting a daily high of 1.2683. GBP/USD slid on hot US CPI data, traders await UK inflation figures.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.2618 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2643 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2634 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.2616 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2659 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2673 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.0237 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
Stochastic Oscillator : 30.7950 | Sell Zone | Negative
EUR/USD remains near 1.0725, closely watching ECB President Lagarde’s speech in the wake of mixed Fedspeak and the upcoming US Retail Sales report. The pair shows signs of balance recovery after a modest US dollar retracement led to gains. In other markets, NZD/USD sees slight gains, while GBP/USD faces pressure following UK GDP data. USD/CAD attempts to rebound, influenced by a subdued US dollar and the potential impact of declining WTI prices. The broader focus includes key economic indicators like the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD
EUR/USD Sticks To Lows Near 1.0725, Lagarde Eyed.
EUR/USD is holding lower ground while eyeing the 1.0700 mark in European trading on Thursday. The US Dollar struggles amid mixed Fedspeak, as traders await the US Retail Sales report for fresh policy hints. Ahead of that, ECB Lagarde’s speech is eagerly awaited. The modest retracement in the US dollar (USD) triggered a decent bounce in risk-oriented assets on Wednesday, encouraging EUR/USD to regain some balance and leave the area of yearly lows in the sub-1.0700 zone. On the ECB’s side, Vice President L. de Guindos remarked that although progress is being made, caution is warranted to avoid premature conclusions.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.0762 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.0799 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.0839 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.0755 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.0806 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.0889 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 37.4419 | Sell Zone | Bearish
Stochastic Oscillator : 12.4185 | Sell Zone | Positive
Daily FX Analysis – GBP, EUR, AUD, USD/JPY challenges, insights.
Introduction
GBP/USD maintains stability around 1.2600 after UK retail sales data. Despite a 3.4% monthly increase in retail sales in the UK, Pound Sterling struggles to gain momentum. Meanwhile, EUR/USD faces bearish pressures near 1.0750, impacted by renewed US Dollar demand and dovish ECB comments. The US Dollar steadies after recent losses, influencing the Australian Dollar’s attempt to move into positive territory. Japanese Yen faces challenges near daily lows against USD due to uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s policy shift and risk-on sentiment.
Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD
GBP/USD Holds Steady Near 1.2600 After UK Data.
GBP/USD continues to fluctuate at around 1.2600 in the early European session on Friday. The data from the UK showed that Retail Sales rose 3.4% every month but failed to provide a boost to Pound Sterling. Focus shifts to US January PPI figures. The Pound Sterling (GBP) climbed during the North American session following a soft retail sales report that lifted the major from a crucial technical level. Consequently, the Greenback (USD) is on the defensive as the GBP/USD trades at 1.2586, up 0.17%, after jumping off a daily low of 1.2541. Pound Sterling edges high amid mixed US economic reports, BoE’s rate cut estimates.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.2608 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2633 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2630 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.2596 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20 : 1.2648 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2674 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.0909 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
Stochastic Oscillator : 25.0329 | Sell Zone | Negative
Daily FX Analysis – GBP/USD soars, others hold steady.
Introduction
GBP/USD inches above 1.2600 as the US Dollar weakens, driven by market sentiment anticipating delayed Fed rate cuts. With USD under pressure, GBP/USD consolidates gains. Meanwhile, EUR/USD maintains modest gains below 1.0800 in light trading, impacted by the US Dollar’s decline. Australian Dollar consolidates after gains, supported by dovish Fed comments. USD/JPY retreats to near 150.00 amid improved Japanese Machinery Orders and a subdued US Dollar following Friday’s volatile session. US markets observe a bank holiday on President’s Day.
Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD
GBP/USD Inches Higher Above 1.2600 On USD Weakness.
GBP/USD is consolidating gains above 1.2600 in early Europe on Monday. The US Dollar experiences downward pressure, influenced by market sentiment leaning towards the delayed Fed rate cuts. A US holiday-thinned trading is likely to extend. GBP/USD benefited from the renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness and snapped a three-day losing streak on Thursday. The pair, however, lost its recovery momentum after testing 1.2600 and edged lower in the early European session on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield continued to correct lower following the disappointing Retail Sales data from the US on Thursday and weighed on the USD. Meanwhile, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene reiterated on Thursday that the monetary policy will need to remain restrictive for some time, further supporting GBP/USD.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.2614 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
MA 20 : 1.2633 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2631 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.2607 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
MA 20 : 1.2644 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 50 : 1.2676 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 47.9409 | Buy Zone | Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator : 35.0461 | Sell Zone | Positive
Daily FX Analysis – USD/CAD surges, EUR/USD nears support.
Introduction
In the currency markets, USD/CAD maintains its position above the 1.3500 level ahead of Canada’s CPI data, buoyed by a stronger US Dollar. Meanwhile, EUR/USD retreats from its weekly high, eyeing support at 1.0750, and GBP/USD struggles below 1.2600 ahead of BoE Governor Bailey’s testimony. NZD/USD trades flat amid the PBoC rate decision, influenced by cautious Fed rate cut expectations. The market anticipates potential volatility with upcoming economic data and central bank announcements.
Markets In Focus Today – USD/CAD
USD/CAD Holds Above The 1.3500 Mark Ahead Of Canadian CPI Data.
USD/CAD edges higher to 1.3506 amid the firmer USD. Investors trimmed their bets on rate cut expectations from the Fed as the US January PPI data came in hotter than estimated. Canada’s January CPI report will be released on Tuesday, which is estimated to ease in January. The USD/CAD pair traded on a stronger note above the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the stronger US Dollar (USD). The Canadian inflation data will be in the spotlight on Tuesday and could trigger volatility in the market ahead of the FOMC Minutes. At press time, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3506, gaining 0.12% on the day.
Technical Overview With Chart :
Moving Averages :
Exponential :
MA 10 : 1.3489 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
MA 20 : 1.3473 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
MA 50 : 1.3467 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
Simple :
MA 10 : 1.3487 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
MA 20 : 1.3471 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
MA 50 : 1.3405 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.5737 | Buy Zone | Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator : 58.9418 | Buy Zone | Positive
