BEST COMMODITY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BY CAPITAL STREET FX

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Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI up, corn down, Fed awaits.​

Introduction​

WTI oil price hovers around $74.20 per barrel, maintaining a positive bias after Israel rejects a ceasefire offer from Hamas. Crude oil prices are expected to continue their winning streak, supported by geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, gold struggles to gain traction amid uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path, keeping traders cautious. Silver faces renewed selling pressure, hitting a two-week low and remaining vulnerable to further declines.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL​

WTI Hovers Around $74.20 With A Positive Bias After Israel Rejected Hamas’s Ceasefire Offer.​

WTI price could gain ground as Israel has dismissed Hamas’ offer for a ceasefire.EIA Crude Oil stockpiles came in at 5.521 million barrels against the expected 1.895 million barrels. The largest US oilfield, the Permian shale basin, is projected to experience its slowest annual growth since 2021. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price hovers around $74.20 per barrel during the Asian session on Thursday. Crude oil prices are expected to continue their winning streak for the fourth consecutive session. WTI price receives upward support as an obstacle emerges on a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 74.2378 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 74.2128 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 74.6695 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 74.9197 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 74.4121 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 73.2419 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.7858 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 31.3964 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 74.53 | Take Profit: 72.35 | Stop Loss: 76.10

CORN​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil rises on geopolitical tensions, gas hits low.​

Introduction​

Oil remains stable with prospects of weekly gains after Israel rejects a ceasefire offer from Hamas, sustaining tensions in the Middle East. Both Brent and WTI experienced a 3% surge as Israeli forces continued operations. Due to bearish storage reports and unfavorable weather forecasts, natural gas futures hit a more than three-year low. Gold struggles amid uncertainty over aggressive Fed rate cuts, while silver shows recovery but faces technical challenges for sustained gains.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL​

Oil Heads For Weekly Gains After Israel Rejects Ceasefire Offer.​

Oil prices were little changed on Friday, staying on track for weekly gains, with tensions persisting in the Middle East after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas. Both benchmarks rose about 3% in the previous session as Israeli forces bombed the southern border city of Rafah on Thursday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a proposal to end the war in the Palestinian enclave The tensions have kept oil prices elevated, with Brent and WTI both set to gain more than 5% for the week.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 80.1468 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 79.8148 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 79.8974 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 80.1115 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 79.9283 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 78.4612 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.5250 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 56.4783 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
• S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 80.89 | Take Profit: 83.41 | Stop Loss: 79.57

NATURAL GAS​

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Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold falters, silver rises, oil soars.​

Introduction​

XAU/USD faces a 0.40% dip to $2,025, signaling a bearish sentiment. Despite soft CPI revisions, gold struggles for traction. Daily chart indicators show a bearish bias, while the four-hour chart suggests a consolidation of losses. Attention turns to next week’s US CPI figures for market direction. Silver (XAG/USD) sees a modest 0.15% gain, trading at $22.60, influenced by a weaker USD. Silver’s potential move toward $23.00 is hinted at, with indications of bottoming out between $22.15-$22.50. Meanwhile, oil prices rise 6% weekly due to Middle East concerns, while natural gas faces a bearish outlook amid ample supply and low demand.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

XAU/USD Declines As Bears Gather Traction Ahead Of US CPI.​

The XAU/USD retreated to $2,025 on Friday, registering losses of 0.40% on the day. Despite soft CPI revisions, the metal failed to gather traction. Daily chart indicators hint at a bearish bias, with RSI’s negative slope and MACD’s rising red bars suggesting selling momentum. In the four-hour chart, indicators appear flat hinting at a consolidation of losses. In Friday’s session, the XAU/USD was observed at a trading level of $2,025, marking a dip of 0.40%. Focus is set on next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from January after the US downward revised the December figures, to continue placing their bets on the next Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2032.3019 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2032.5195 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2024.8748 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2035.7342 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2030.0041 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2033.6970 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.9072 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 38.4197 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
• S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 2022.31 | Take Profit: 1987.13 | Stop Loss: 2043.41

SILVER​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Copper, Oil, Natural Gas.​

Introduction​

Gold prices stagnate around $2,020, grappling with conflicting signals amid hawkish Fed sentiments and positive market sentiment. The USD’s defensive stance, driven by Fed rate cut uncertainty, offers support. Traders eagerly await Tuesday’s US CPI data for market direction. Meanwhile, Copper faces a downturn on the discovery of a sizable deposit in Zambia, signaling potential oversupply. Oil prices dip as Israel concludes Gaza strikes, alleviating Middle East supply concerns. Natural gas experiences a three-year low due to increased production and policy uncertainties, reflecting a bearish market sentiment.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

Gold Price Flat-Lines Amid Mixed Cues, Look To US CPI On Tuesday For Fresh Impetus.​

Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid hawkish Fed expectations and the upbeat market mood. The Fed rate cut uncertainty keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and lends support to the metal. Traders await Tuesday’s US consumer inflation figures before placing directional bets. Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading range, just above the $2,020 level during the Asian session. The recent surge in the US Treasury bond yields, bolstered by the upbeat US macro data and hawkish rhetoric from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, along with a generally positive risk tone, act as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. The downside, however, remains cushioned in the wake of a softer US Dollar (USD), which tends to benefit the USD-denominated commodity.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2030.6821 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2031.6503 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2024.8167 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2034.7780 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2028.4637 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2033.5879 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.5022 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 31.6536 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
• S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 2022.73 | Take Profit: 2001.46 | Stop Loss: 2036.41

COPPER​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI, Corn surge, Gold, and Silver await.​

Introduction​

WTI oil prices surge towards $77.00 amid escalating Middle East tensions, fueled by Houthi strikes on a ship. Geopolitical concerns in the Israel-Hamas conflict heighten supply disruption fears. Meanwhile, US shale production may increase by 20,000 bpd in March. In the agriculture sector, corn closes higher, supported by increased weekly shipments, while gold and silver prices remain steady, awaiting US inflation data for rate cues.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL​

WTI Rises Towards $77.00 On Escalated Middle East Tension, Houthi Strikes At A Ship.​

WTI price extends its gains on a threat of supply disruptions due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched missiles at a ship headed for a port in Iran. US top shale-producing regions could increase output by 20,000 bpd to 9.7 million bpd in March. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its winning streak initiated on February 5, buoyed by heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The price of Crude oil climbs towards $77.00 per barrel during the Asian session on Tuesday. Yemen’s Houthi rebels reportedly launched missiles at a ship headed for a port in Iran, resulting in minor damage to the vessel but no injuries to its crew, according to authorities.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 75.6741 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 75.0692 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 74.9993 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 74.9310 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 75.2041 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 73.3472 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.0643 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 69.4536 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 76.69 | Take Profit: 79.03 | Stop Loss: 75.49

Wheat Futures​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold down, Copper crisis, Oil up, Gas struggles.​

Introduction​

“As Gold struggles near a two-month low, the stronger-than-expected US CPI data diminishes hopes of a Fed rate cut, keeping the precious metal below $2,000. Meanwhile, copper faces pressure from a stronger dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth, exacerbated by a massive deposit discovery in Zambia. Oil prices rise on positive demand forecasts, while natural gas languishes due to warmer weather predictions reducing heating demand.”

Markets In Focus Today – Gold​

Gold Price Struggles Near Two-Month Low As Hot US CPI Temper Fed Rate Cut Bets.​

Gold price hits a fresh two-month low amid bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. The expectations were reaffirmed by the stronger-than-expected US CPI released on Tuesday. A softer risk tone lends support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and helps limit any further losses. Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to attract buyers and languishes below the $2,000 psychological mark, or a two-month low through the early European session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation report released on Tuesday reaffirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding yellow metal, though a combination of factors lends some support and helps limit the downside.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2017.0634 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2023.9850 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2022.0886 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2025.0466 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2025.6890 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2032.2712 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.7932 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator : 8.4879 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
• S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1994.62 | Take Profit: 1972.58 | Stop Loss: 2009.82

COPPER​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – oil dives, corn lows, gold reacts to bonds.​

Introduction​

WTI faces renewed selling pressure, hovering around $76.00 amid a second consecutive day of retreats. Despite geopolitical risks, a surge in US inventories weighs on oil prices, while OPEC’s positive global demand outlook fails to provide support. In the corn market, futures hit new lows, influenced by a red trading session and ethanol-related data. Gold prices tick higher due to sliding US bond yields and geopolitical tensions, while Silver stabilizes above $22, awaiting guidance from US Retail Sales data. Federal Reserve comments suggest a hesitant stance on rate cuts, impacting precious metals.

Markets In Focus Today – Crude OIL​

WTI Retreats Further From The Monthly Peak And Seems Vulnerable Near The $76.00 Mark.​

WTI remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Thursday. A spike in US inventories overshadows geopolitical risks and weighs on Oil prices. The OPEC sees a rise in global demand in 2024, and 2025, albeit fails to lend support. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices extend the overnight pullback from the vicinity of mid-$78.00s, or a fresh monthly peak and drift lower for the second successive day on Thursday. The commodity hovers around the $76.00 mark during the Asian session and remains well within the striking distance of the weekly low touched on Monday.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 75.9666 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 75.3486 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 75.1257 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 75.2912 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 75.5299 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 73.5075 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.0784 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 68.9884 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy : 75.62 | Take Profit: 78.29 | Stop Loss: 74.13

CORN​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Monitor oil, gas, gold, and silver.​

Introduction​

Oil prices paused after the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a forecast indicating slowing demand, contrasting with the optimism sparked by weak U.S. retail sales data hinting at potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The IEA’s report projects a slight reduction in global oil demand growth, while OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook. Natural gas prices reach a new trend low of 1.57, reflecting prolonged bearish sentiment. Gold prices hover around $2,000 following weak U.S. retail sales, still facing weekly losses. Silver experiences a 2.50% surge as lower US bond yields increase its appeal.

Markets In Focus Today – Brent Crude Oil​

Oil Flat As Weaker IEA Outlook Weighs On US Rate Cut Hopes.​

Oil prices stalled on Friday over a forecast of slowing demand by the International Energy Agency after gaining in the previous session on weak U.S. retail sales data that sparked optimism that the Fed might cut interest rates sooner than expected. Both contracts climbed over 1% on Thursday as a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales prompted hopes the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates, which could be positive for oil demand. The IEA’s monthly report said it expects global oil demand to grow by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, slightly down from last month’s estimate. OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its much steeper growth forecast of 2.25 million bpd.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 81.5247 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 80.8005 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 80.3363 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 81.0777 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 80.9204 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 78.9141 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.6771 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 76.6559 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
• S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.09 | Take Profit: 83.43 | Stop Loss: 79.91

Natural Gas​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Energy sinks, gold struggles, China waits.​

Introduction​

Oil prices drop as concerns over sticky US inflation heighten demand worries. Reports of higher producer prices in the US, the largest oil consumer, raise concerns about limited fuel consumption growth amid inflation and higher interest rates. Meanwhile, US natural gas prices hit a three-decade low due to the warmest winter on record, impacting demand. Gold prices rise but remain range-bound amid fears of prolonged US rate hikes. Copper prices slip after a strong prior week, with attention on China’s economic cues for the industrial metal.

Markets In Focus Today – Brent Crude Oil​

Oil Drops As Sticky US Inflation Heightens Demand Concerns.​

Oil prices fell as investor attention returned to the demand outlook after reports of higher producer prices in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user, stoked worries that sticky inflation and higher interest rates would limit fuel consumption growth. Both Brent and WTI contracts had settled higher on Friday, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East offset slowing demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency. Markets are also yet to see the direction of demand from China after it returns from a week-long Lunar New Year holiday, while Presidents’ Day in the United States is set to keep trade relatively muted.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 81.8966 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 81.0715 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 80.4680 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 81.6525 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 81.1121 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 79.1014 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 58.8856 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 88.5776 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
• S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.67 | Take Profit: 83.49 | Stop Loss: 80.73

NATURAL GAS​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil is up gold is over $2,020, and silver is steady.​

Introduction​

WTI crude oil rises to approximately $78.30 amidst Houthi Group strikes on Red Sea shipping vessels, elevating concerns about Middle East supply disruption. Meanwhile, Natural Gas faces a three-year low due to soft European demand. Gold gains momentum near $2,020 amid escalating Middle East tensions and economic uncertainties, with FOMC Minutes in focus. Silver consolidates above $22.45, showing a potential mean reversion towards $23.90 and $25.00.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL​

WTI Moves Higher To Around $78.30 As The Houthi Group Strikes On Shipping Vessels In The Red Sea.​

WTI price edges higher on escalated threat over supply disruption from the Middle East. Iran-led Houthis targeted Belize-flagged, British-registered cargo vessel Rubymar. European Union has deployed warships and early warning systems to safeguard shipping lanes in the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco is considering issuing a bond of up to maturity of 50 years in 2024. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price retraces its recent losses registered on Monday. WTI price trades higher around $78.30 per barrel during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The escalated threat of the oil supply disruption from the Middle East is supporting the prices of Crude oil.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 77.4693 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 76.4050 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 75.6216 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 77.3102 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 76.3290 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 74.0781 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.0690 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 92.0512 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 77.00 | Take Profit: 79.60 | Stop Loss: 75.50

NATURAL GAS​

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