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AUD/USD: buy targets - 0.7600 and 0.7700
14 March 2016, 10:30 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7500
Next buy targets - 0.7600 and 0.7700

AUD/USD recently broke up sharply through the resistance zone lying at the intersection for the resistance level 0.7500 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp extended downward impulse from last May. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 3 – both of which belong to the sharp intermediate (C)-wave from the middle of January.

AUD/USD is likely to rise further to the next buy targets - 0.7600 (former strong support from last June) and 0.7700. Strong support now stands at 0.7500.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: technical analysis
15 March 2016, 06:28 Comments: 0

Sergey Logachev

EUR/USD: technical analysis

We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern at the last high, which led to the current downward movement. It’s likely that the market is going to reach a support at 1.1067. If we see a pullback from this level, then bulls might try to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.1245 – 1.1273.

EUR/USD: technical analysis

There’s a flat movement between a resistance at 1.1214 and the 55 Moving Average line, which acts as a support. In the short term, bears are likely going to achieve a support area between the levels 1.1067 – 1.1057. If sellers be stopped by this area, then the price might start rising towards a resistance at 1.1245.

 

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Forex trading plan for March 16
15 March 2016, 14:08 Comments: 0

By Elizabeth Belugina

The main thing in the US retail sales report was that the indicator for January was revised down from 0.2% to -0.4%. Although these data aren’t critical for the Fed, they remind us that not all is well in the US economy. In the recent days the market’s expectations switched to the more hawkish side. However, demand for the greenback will likely decline on Wednesday, especially against safer franc, euro and yen.

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, economic projections and statement at 18:00 GMT. Janet Yellen’s press conference will start at 18:30 GMT. Traders will also pay attention to February inflation figures at 12:30 GMT. The rate hike at this meeting isn’t priced in, so in case of surprise from the Fed we’ll see US dollar jump and stocks fall. However, the main scenario is that the FOMC doves won’t allow a rate hike. Yet even just Yellen’s comments that the Fed will increase rates this year will give USD bullish impulse versus commodity currencies and gold.

Oil prices kept falling as Iran doesn’t want to freeze production. Such dynamics affected commodity currencies. USD/CAD reached resistance line at 1.3400. AUD/USD slid to the target of 0.7450. US dollar should be weaker on Wednesday, but after the releases the situation may change. Resistance for AUD/USD is at 0.7500/30, while the next support is at 0.7425.

British pound was once again affected by the potential Brexit: the polls showed than more people lean to voting for the UK to leave the EU. GBP/USD breached short-term uptrend channel. Below 1.4150 (38.2% Fibo of March recovery) the pair will fall to 1.4100 and 1.4080 (January 21 low). Resistance is at 1.4215 and 1.4270. Britain will release labor market data at 09:30 GMT on Wednesday.

USD/JPY fell below 113.00 after the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged and removed the phrase about the possibility of further rate cuts from its statement. Negative pressure will persist. Next support is at 112.30/00 and 111.00. Resistance is at 113.50 and 114.30.

 

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EUR/USD: "window" acts as a support
16 March 2016, 09:18 Comments: 0

Galina Svetlova

EUR/USD: "window" acts as a support



The pair has been contracting since a “Shooting Star” arrived last week. There’s a “Three Methods” pattern on the nearest “Window”. We haven’t got any reversal patterns, so it’s likely that a decline will go on towards Moving Average lines and the lower side of “Window” area. As we can see on the Daily chart, the 89 Moving Average line acts as a support. The last candles are bearish so far, so the downward movement is probably going to the nearest support line.

EUR/USD: "window" acts as a support

There's a flat in progress under the previously formed small “Window”. The last candles on the 55 Moving Average line are bearish, so we can expect that the current correction is going to be continued towards the nearest support line on the one-hour chart.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/CAD: sell target - 1.2850
17 March 2016, 10:47 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

USD/CAD reached sell target 1.3200
Next sell target - 1.2850

USD/CAD recently broke sharply below the support level 1.3200, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.3200 intensified the bearish pressure on USD/CAD, accelerating the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ② from the middle of January.

The pair today broke the round support level 1.3000. If the price closes today below 1.3000 - USD/CAD can then be expected to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the pivotal support level 1.2850 (which stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) in last October).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: bearish correction
18 March 2016, 07:33 Comments: 0

Sergey Logachev

GBP/USD: bearish correction

The market was rising yesterday and finally bulls reached a resistance at 1.4515, which led to the current correction. It’s likely to see the pair lower. If the price finds a support at 1.4436 – 1.4393, then buyers are probably going to achieve a resistance at 1.4577.

GBP/USD: bearish correction

All Moving Average lines were broken by the fast bullish rally. There's a possible “Flag” pattern, so the price is likely going to reach its lower side near a support area at 1.4436 – 1.4393. In case of a pullback from this zone, bulls will have an opportunity to start a new upward movement.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: buying on the dips
18 March 2016, 14:52 Comments: 0

By Elizabeth Belugina

As the expectations for US rate rises this year tempered, EUR/USD made another push to the upside reaching levels above 1.13.

There will likely be more verbal interventions from the European Central Bank as the euro heads up. As inflation in Europe is very low, the regulator would not want the national currency to strengthen by much. The ECB chief economist Praet said on Friday that the deposit rate may be cut further if needed. However, so far the ECB’s efforts haven’t done much to discourage the euro bulls, so, in our view, euro will be bought back in case of declines.

Resistance is at 1.1375 and an increase above this level will open way up to 1.15. Support is at 1.12 and 1.1050.

Tuesday will be the most intense day of the next week in terms of the economic data from the euro area: firstly, the region will release flash manufacturing & services PMIs; secondly, Ifo business climate and ZEW economic sentiment indexes are due for Germany.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: sell target -1.1150
21 March 2016, 10:19 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

EUR/USD reversed from pivotal resistance level 1.1340
Next sell target -1.1150

EUR/USD recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.1340, which previously reversed the price strongly at the start of February, as can be seen from the daily EUR/USD chart below. The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.1340 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1340 stopped the active minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate (C)-wave from the start of December.

Given the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator and the strength of the resistance level 1.1340 - EUR/USD can be expected to fall further from the current levels toward the next sell target at the support level 1.1150.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for March 22
21 March 2016, 14:12 Comments: 1

By Elizabeth Belugina

Global stock markets showed mixed picture, as investors were unsure. On the one hand, the US Federal Reserve’s more dovish approach is good for the market’s sentiment. On the other hand, oil was under pressure after the first increase in US drilling rigs this year.

EUR/USD kept correcting down from last week’s highs. The retracement may continue to 1.1220 and 1.1145 (23.6% and 38.2% Fibo of February-March advance). Watch the euro area’s key March manufacturing and services PMIs at 08:00-09:00 GMT. German and European ZEW economic sentiment index is due at 10:00 GMT. Depending on the data the market will or will not expect more easing from the central bank. Rise above 1.1375 is needed to open way up to 1.1500.

British pound is affected by Brexit concerns and political problems in the UK (British work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith, a supporter of Brexit, resigned over the weekend). The nation will release inflation figures at 09:30 GMT. The forecast for February CPI is rather positive, though public sector net borrowing is expected to increase. The pair will likely test support at 1.4350 and 1.4280, though there still is buying interest for pound, so have cautious targets. Resistance is at 1.4435 and 1.4515.

USD/JPY will likely recover from 111.00 to 112.30/113.00 if the risk the market’s sentiment improves. However, the overall picture remains bearish. Below 111.00 the greenback will be vulnerable for a decline to the psychological mark of 110.00.

AUD/USD was supported by another increase in iron ore prices. Yet, it will be interesting to hear the comments from the Reserve Bank’s Governor Stevens at 05:30 GMT: the RBA doesn’t like high national currency and may try to talk it down. The pair reached 61.8% Fibo at 0.7675 last week and may retreat to 0.7530/00 before resuming growth.

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