Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: "Three Line Strike" on the bearish trend
14 April 2016, 10:09 Comments: 0

Galina Svetlova

USD/JPY: "Three Line Strike" on the bearish trend

There's a “Three-Line Strike” at the local high, so the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, we haven’t got any reversal pattern so far, but there're an “Inverted Hammer” and a “Doji” at the last low, which both have been confirmed. Under this circumstances, today’s candle is likely going to be a white one.

USD/JPY: "Three Line Strike" on the bearish trend

The price has been rising since a lot of bullish patterns were formed at the last low. Currently, we’ve got a local correction on the 55 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls will have an opportunity to see the price higher in the short term.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

FX BAZOOKA trading plan for April 15
14 April 2016, 15:43 Comments: 0

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remains rather vulnerable after we’ve seen slower than expected US inflation on Thursday. However, EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure mostly due to the bearish factors: the pair extends correction after approaching the 1.1450/1.1510 long-term resistance area. Next support for the pair lies at 1.1220 (38.2% Fibonacci from the March rally). Break lower will open the way to 1.1140.

GBP/USD also remains a SELL for the coming sessions: the pair came under a renewed bearish pressure after hitting 1.4350 yesterday. The BOE meeting today failed to bring any surprises, but the central bank warned the EU exit will hurt the UK economy.

AUD/USD is pushing higher, supported by the strong labor market data released on Thursday. Option barriers are clustered around 0.7750. Beware the Chinese GDP and industrial manufacturing data release on Friday – this is something that could initiate a pullback in the Aussie’s rally.

As for USD/JPY, the pair has potential for more upside: key resistance moved to 110 yen. This level will be crucial for the further dynamics of the market. In my view, the USD upside still remains limited in this pair.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

US Dollar: forecast for April 18-24
15 April 2016, 15:30 Comments: 0

By Kira Iukhtenko

Core inflation in United States rose by 0.1% in March, down from 0.3% in February. The weaker readings were driven by a monthly fall in clothing prices and lower healthcare inflation. Below-the-forecast reading adds to uncertainty about the further Fed’s policy moves. We believe that the prospects of the US currency remain subdued in the current conditions.

However, the Qatar oil producers’ meeting on Sunday, April 17th, is a risk to our main scenario. Disappointment from the meeting could trigger a sharp US Dollar correction to the upside, so beware this risk.

As for the economic calendar, on the new week we’ll pay attention to the housing market figures on Tuesday and the crude oil inventories data on Wednesday. On Thursday watch the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: bulls run smack into the bearish "Thorn"
19 April 2016, 07:45 Comments: 0

Sergey Logachev

GBP/USD: bulls run smack into the bearish "Thorn"

The price has formed two “Thorns” in a row, which led to the current rise. Moreover, the downtrend line has been broken, so bulls are probably going to taste a resistance at 1.4426. Considering a possible pullback from this level, it’s likely to see the price on a support at 1.4282 – 1.4234 afterwards.

GBP/USD: bulls run smack into the bearish "Thorn"

There’s a flat in a range of the current resistance zone. We’ve got a small “Flag”, so it’s likely to see the market higher. If the price gets a resistance at 1.4369 – 1.4405, a downward correction will be possible, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.4240.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 20
19 April 2016, 14:39 Comments: 0

By Kira Iukhtenko

Risk-sentiment:

Despite the evident failure of the Doha talks, market sentiment remains rather upbeat: we’ve seen the risky currencies strengthen significantly over the recent days.

Economic calendar for April 20:

8:30 GMT – UK labor market data

10:00 GMT – ECB President Mario Draghi speaks

14:30 GMT - Crude oil inventories

20:15 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: "V-Top" points to a correction at least
20 April 2016, 06:38 Comments: 0

Sergey Logachev

GBP/USD: "V-Top" points to a correction at least

The downtrend line has been broken, but then a “V-Top” arrived under the nearest resistance at 1.4426. So, the price stated declining and reached a support at 1.4347. The market is likely going to falling down towards a support at 1.4343 – 1.4305. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price on the next resistance at 1.4458.

GBP/USD: "V-Top" points to a correction at least

We’ve got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed. The price got a support at 1.4347, but bears are likely going to achieve to the lower side of the current support area. In case of a pullback, bulls will have a chance to return to the market and deliver a new high.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 21
20 April 2016, 14:07 Comments: 0

EUR/USD: The market’s attention will be focused on the European Central Bank’s decision (11:45 GMT, no changes in policy are expected) and the press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT). European economic figures were brighter since the last meeting, but the regulator will likely emphasize that monetary policy will remain accommodative. The euro may test levels around 1.1300/1.1270 ahead of the event. Decline below 1.1240 will open the way down to 1.1140. Resistance is at 1.1375, 1.1400 and 1.1460.

GBP/USD: British labor market data came out lower than expected. Growth of average hourly earnings slowed from 2.1% to 1.8%. It means lower wage inflation and lower chance that the Bank of England will increase interest rates anytime soon. BoE’s member McCafferty made dovish comments – this is negative for the pound. On Thursday the UK will release retail sales data at 08:30 GMT. The indicator’s decline is expected to slow down, though consensus shows that there still will be a negative reading. The latest Brexit poll showed that more people will vote for Britain to remain in the European Union. GBP/USD has reached resistance line connecting February and March highs. Resistance is at 1.4470/1.4500. Support is at 1.4340 and pound looks vulnerable for correction to 1.4260 and 1.4115.

USD/JPY: US dollar made a higher low on and may try to correct up to resistance at 109.75, 110.00 and 110.75. Below support at 108.70 the pair should slide towards 108.00. Watch Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index at 12:30 GMT on Thursday.

AUD/USD: The pair is technically overbought and has potential for correction down. Decline below 0.7800 will open the way down to 0.7750 and 0.7700. Lower levels of oil will help the bears. Above 0.7800 the focus will be on 0.7850, though we are cautious about going long at this point without a sizeable correction down first.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" is still in the game
22 April 2016, 06:59 Comments: 0

Sergey Logachev

GBP/USD: "Double Top" is still in the game

The market has been trading in a range on the current flat since the downtrend line was broken. So, the price is likely going to test a resistance at 1.4426 once again. If we see a pullback from this level, a decline becomes possible, so the nearest support zone at 1.4343 – 1.4305 will be the main target for bears soon.

GBP/USD: "Double Top" is still in the game

There's a “V-Top” at the last high, which brought the current downward movement. Finally, the price faced a support on the 55 Moving Average, so currently we've got an upward correction. It's likely that the market is going to achieve a resistance at 1.4369 – 1.4405 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this area, a possibility to see the pair near the last low remains a quite high.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Bank of Japan will help USD/JPY
22 April 2016, 13:48 Comments: 0

By Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week USD/JPY corrected up to 110.75. The US dollar managed to strengthen as oil gained and the market’s risk sentiment improved decreasing demand for Japanese yen as the safe haven. In addition, Bloomberg reported on Friday that the Bank of Japan was considering additional policy easing in form of offering banks negative interest rates on some loans. Now the BOJ has negative rates only on some excess reserves of the financial institutions.

The meeting of Japanese central bank will take place on Thursday, April 28, right after the US Federal Reserve makes its decision on Wednesday. No changes in the Fed’s policy are expected. The expectations that the BOJ may lower rates further. These expectations will likely keep USD/JPY supported. Also note that Japan will release a block of important data on Thursday: inflation, retail sales and industrial production figures.

Levels in the 108.00/107.60 area represent good support: the pair tried to break lower several times, but failed. There’s also support at higher levels – at 109.75 and 109.10. Resistance lies at 111.40 and 112.00/35.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 26
25 April 2016, 14:44 Comments: 0

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar started the weak under pressure as traders don’t expect any hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. American new home sales data turned out worse than expected (511K vs. 521K). On Tuesday the US will release durable goods figures at 12:30 GMT: analysts expect improvement after poor figures of the previous month.

EUR/USD recovered to 1.1260. German Ifo business climate missed the forecast (106.6 vs. 107.1), though the data don’t change the fundamental picture for EUR/USD. Last week the ECB didn’t ease monetary policy, but underlined that its approach will remain accommodative. The euro’s failure to overcome levels in the 1.1400 area last week mean that the bulls don’t have enough strength to push the pair higher. Resistance at 1.1300 and 1.1350 should limit the upside. Support is at 1.1215 and 1.1150.

GBP/USD tested levels above 1.4500 on Monday. British pound broke above resistance line connecting February and March highs and the next targets on the upside may lie at 1.4635/70. Support is at 1.4440 and 1.4400. The pair rose as US President Barack Obama spoke in favor of the UK remaining within the European Union.

USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 111.87, but then tested levels below 111.00. Earlier the US dollar gained on the expectations that the Bank of Japan will start lending to banks at negative interest rate. However, traders still seriously doubt that any measures of Japanese central bank would be efficient. Below 110.85/75 the pair will slide to 110.30.

AUD/USD recovered a bit after 3 days of declines. Resistance is at 0.7730. A break higher will open the way up to 0.7760 and 0.7800. Support is at 0.7690 and 0.7650.