Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Options levels on main pairs
25 April 2016, 13:44 Comments: 0

EUR/USD

The most approximate resistance levels 1.1324; 1.1424; 1.1481; 1.1520
The most approximate support levels 1.1229; 1.1145/12; 1.1075; 1.0990
Upside risks range: 1.1324-1.1582
Downside risks range: 1.1229-1.0990

EUR/USD closed lower strong put-level 1.1229 that makes background for further decline throughout the duration of this week.

The proximate troughs for the bear movement are 1.1145 and 1.1075.

The buyers gain traction, starting at a little bit higher level than 1.1324, expected increase is up to 1.1424, 1.1481.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 27
26 April 2016, 15:35 Comments: 0

By Kira Iukhtenko

Forex market remains calm ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting that will take place on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rate unchanged tomorrow and there is no press-conference planned. That’s why traders all over the world will be closely watching the FOMC policy statement for any hints on a rate hike on the June meeting. The chance for any is low in light of the worrisome economic indicators we’ve seen recently. On Tuesday week durable goods orders data confirm the concerns: US economy could have slowed down over the Q1 2016. These expectations are hurting the US dollar.

EUR/USD is pushing higher for a second day in a row. Dovish Federal Reserve could support the euro tomorrow, pushing the pair towards the major resistance at 1.1460. However, the 1.1500 area still remains a hard nut to crack for the buyers, so be careful about going long on highs. There are no releases scheduled in the euro zone tomorrow, so all eyes will be glued to the Fed.

GBP/USD has finally broken above the 1.4500 area. Given such a decisive move, I’m cancelling my bearish forecasts for now. An inverse “head-and-shoulders” pattern with an initial target of 1.5000 has been confirm. Beware the 1.4660 resistance, though (February high). Watch the UK advance Q1 GDP tomorrow – if slowdown confirmed, the pair could retrace lower, but later in the day the Fed could become a game-changer once again.

You may find my analytical overview of USD/JPY and AUD/USD in the video.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Technical picture

USD/JPY is consolidating in a narrow 110.60/111.60 range since the beginning of the week. Traders prefer staying out of the market ahead of the FOMC and BOJ meetings. Technically, I see space for more bullish recovery towards 113.50 this week, but, as I've already said, the game of central banks could change the picture dramatically. The Fed will likely put pressure on USD/JPY (if no hints on the June hike given). Vice versa, the BOJ could boost the pair to our target at 113.50 if gives any hopes for more easing to follow... The question is whether it gives or not.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 28
27 April 2016, 14:44 Comments: 1

By Elizabeth Belugina

A very important event for the US dollar is due on Wednesday: the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting will be released at 18:00 GMT. The change in the central bank’s interest rate is very unlikely, so the main thing to watch will be the Fed’s statement. There are some more hawkish members within the Fed, so the central bank may prepare ground for a potential rate hike this summer. Yet, the central bank will probably try to sound balanced. The main thing to watch is whether the phrases about “unstable situation at global financial markets” and “risks for global economy as a whole and the US economy in particular” remain in the text of the statement. If they do, the US currency will remain under negative pressure. If they don’t, the greenback will gain versus other majors.

Later on Wednesday watch Japanese inflation and retail sales figures: the forecasts are negative. There’s also chance that the Bank of Japan will ease policy on Thursday. You can learn more about trading on the Japanese central bank’s decision here.

The meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will take place on Wednesday night. Support for NZD/USD is at 0.7800/7780, while resistance is at 0.6900/50.

Resistance for EUR/USD lies in 1.1350/1.1375 area, while support is at 1.1215/1.1190. The advance of GBP/USD stalled as British economic growth pace decline in Q1. Support is at 1.4550 and 1.4500. Resistance is at 1.4640/70.

AUD/USD fell below 0.7600 as Australian CPI unexpectedly contracted in Q1. This revived expectations of potential RBA rate cut next week. Watch support at 0.7560 ahead of 0.7500 and 0.7400. Resistance is at 0.7690.

Find more analysis for the major currency pairs in the video.

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8772

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

NZD/USD after the RBNZ meeting
28 April 2016, 10:34 Comments: 0

By Elizabeth Belugina

The Reserve bank of New Zealand left the benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25% despite the expectations of a rate cut. Indeed, the RBNZ cited high commodity prices in some region: lower rate would increase this bubble even more. As a result, NZD/USD rallied towards 0.7000.

Yet, the central bank said that “further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range”. It means that the RBNZ may actually reduce rate in the coming months. The decision to cut rate will be made in case of lower inflation expectations and worse global outlook. The RBNZ also expressed concerns with high level of the national currency saying that the New Zealand’s dollar “remains higher than appropriate given New Zealand’s low commodity export prices”. It means that the higher NZD/USD goes, the more likely will the rate cut be.

NZD/USD is now trading above the level, where it was when the RBNZ reduced rate in March. The expectations of a future rate cut won’t let NZD to get very high.

Resistance is at 0.7050 (April high) and 0.7100 (top of the uptrend since January). Support is at 0.6890 and 0.6780.

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8786

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Gold broke out of the triangle. What's next?

Gold price pushed significantly higher on the past week, hitting $1280 per ounce on Friday. Price broke out of the consolidative triangle even quicker than we expected. Next resistance lies at 1284.50 – March peak and the highest level since early 2015. Break higher will open the way to 1308 and potentially even higher. We could reach $1400 per ounce by the end of the year.

The yellow metal has already climbed by 16% since the beginning of the year as prospects of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike are fading. We expect the US interest rate to remain unchanged until late 2016, and this scenario is supportive for gold. Next week watch the US NFP on Friday – weaker reading could push the price to new highs.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Key option levels: May 2-8
2 May 2016, 14:01 Comments: 0

Grigory Zverev

EUR/USD

o the closest resistance levels: 1.1472; 1.1560; 1.1637; 1.1706

o the closest support levels: 1.1305; 1.1240; 1.1164/25; 1.1053

o the range of upside risks: 1.1472-1.1871

o the range of downside risks: 1.1305-1.0880

Considering EUR/USD, the bulls has managed to turn the tide in their favor. However for growth continuation they need to overcome the number of strong resistances. Medium-term risks belong to bears so far. 1.1472 level excess will predetermine the new wave of growth to the 1.1560 and 1.1637 levels. The currency pair selling should be considered lower than 1.1305 level, with the target points at 1.1240 and 1.1164.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: bears pushing aside all obstacles
3 May 2016, 10:16 Comments: 0

Galina Svetlova

USD/JPY: bears pushing aside all obstacles on the way

The pair has been falling down since a “Three Methods” was formed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance, which could bring a reversal bullish pattern. If so, there’ll be an open door for a bullish correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, we haven’t got any reversal patterns so far. In this case, today’s candle is probably going to be black.

USD/JPY: bears pushing aside all obstacles on the way

There's a “Harami” at the last low, so a local upward correction becomes possible. Its main target is the 21 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will likely going to deliver a new low.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/AUD broke pivotal resistance level 1.5200
3 May 2016, 09:33 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

EUR/AUD broke pivotal resistance level 1.5200
Next buy target - 1.5430

EUR/AUD today broke through the resistance area lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.5200 (top of the previous minor B-wave from the start of April) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) from February. The breakout of this resistance area continues the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the major long-term support level 1.4500, which has been reversing the price from December, as can be seen below.

EUR/AUD is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5430. Strong support now stands at the recently broken price level 1.5200.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for May 5
4 May 2016, 13:25 Comments: 0

US dollar recovered on more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve’s members. San Francisco Fed President John Williams claimed he could vote for an interest rate hike in June if the economy keeps improving. In addition, according to Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, two rate hikes this year were certainly possible. However, ADP employment report showed that the number of employed people in the United States rose by only 156K in April vs. 205K expected.

Risk assets also suffered as crude oil was under pressure. the American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday that US inventories increased last week by 1.3 million barrels.

EUR/USD is holding above support at 1.1460 after it formed spike up to 1.1614 on Tuesday, but failed to stay at these maximums. Euro area’s retail sales contracted by 0.5% in March, while an increase by 0.1% was expected. On Thursday German and French banks will be on holiday. Next support is at 1.1415 and 1.1350. The pair has to rise above 1.1550 in order for the bulls to feel powerful again. Note that there’s declining 100-week MA at 1.1638, and it should create significant resistance.

GBP/USD returned down to 1.4500. British manufacturing unexpectedly fell in April for the first time in 3 years. The nation’s construction PMI also came lower than expected (52.0 vs. 54.1). In addition, ICM poll, which was weighted to take into account the likelihood of respondents taking part in the vote, showed that 45% of voters were in favor of Brexit, while 44% were against it. The pound may suffer more if services PMI due at 08:30 GMT on Thursday disappoints. Below 1.4500 we’ll focus on the next big figure at 1.4400/1.4388 (100-day MA) and 1.4330. Resistance is at 1.4550 and 1.4630.

USD/JPY tried to recover after falling as low as to 105.55 on Tuesday. The lack of monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan last week is the biggest bearish factor the pair. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Tuesday that the government is monitoring speculative foreign-exchange trades and will act if it’s necessary. On Thursday liquidity will be lower because of a bank holiday in Japan, so we may see some volatile moves. The pair will likely remain under bearish pressure. Support is at 105.00 (200-day MA) ahead of 103.70 (may 2013 high). Resistance is at 107.50 and 108.25 ahead of 110.50.

AUD/USD was little changed in the 0.7480 area where it fell from levels above 0.7700 on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rate from 2.00% to 1.75%. There wasn’t much of the forward guidance in the central bank’s accompanying statement – we may get more insight about that from the RBA’s quarterly monetary policy statement, which is due on Friday. The RBA’s decision to act is probably connected with the slowdown in Australian inflation. Resistance lies at 0.7560 and 0.7600. Decline below 0.7450 will open the way down to 0.7410. Australia is due to release retail sales and trade balance figures at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, an improvement in data is expected.

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