Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j41P2zFoe5c&feature=youtu.be

The US Dollar came under bearish pressure on Wednesday – preliminary April NFP from ADP came well below the forecast (159K versus 199K expected). What’s more, the March reading has been revised to the downside to 175K. Market expectations for the Friday’s NFP release are turning more and more negative, weighting on the greenback. We’ll watch the unemployment claims figure on Thursday (forecast – slight increase).

North-American currency is expected to stay under pressure until the end of the week. EUR/USD was seen testing the May 1 high of 1.1290 on Wednesday. There is a double bottom pattern with a neckline at 1.1050 being formed. We expect the correction to extend towards the 1.1530 resistance this week. Watch the German factory orders in the euro zone tomorrow.

UK parliamentary elections are taking place on Thursday, May 7. Political uncertainty is expected to increase after the election, as the government will have to form a coalition. That’s why the upside in GBP/USD will be limited. A weekly candle with a long upper shadow also is a bearish signal. Support - 1.5080, 1.5000 and 1.4950. Break lower would open the way for a new wave of selling.

AUD/USD pushed above 0.8000. Watch out the resistance in the 0.8070 area. Australia will release labor market data tonight – forecasts are downbeat.

USD/JPY came back under bearish pressure, failing to overcome 120.50. We target the triangle bottom at 118.50 in the coming days.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for May 8


The market’s attitude towards the US dollar has dramatically deteriorated in comparison with the hopes seen at the beginning of the week. ADP employment report missed the forecast, especially taking into account the fact that the previous reading was revised to the downside. The unemployment claims released on Thursday, however, came lower than expected (265K vs. 277K) – this is the main source of hope for the USD bulls ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls. NFP is expected to show gain of 227K jobs vs. 126K in March. The unemployment rater is expected to decline from 5.5% to 5.4%.

Friday promises a very volatile trading. We’ll see bigger market reaction if NFP disappoints than if it comes at a good level. Our main scenario is to prepare for a USD-negative scenario.

EUR/USD reached 1.1390 where it met some resistance. The euro looks overbought. Support is at 1.1250 (100-day MA) and 1.1150. If US NFP is below forecast, the pair may jump to 1.1500/35.

GBP/USD is awaiting the results of the UK election: the exit polls figures will be available around 21:00 GMT. Conservatives ahead will be GBP-positive, while Labourists ahead will be GBP-negative. Watch support at 1.5100 and resistance at 1.5270. A break of one of these levels may provoke a move either to 1.4900 or 1.5550.

USD/JPY is slowly declining for the fourth day in a row. Support is at 118.70/50. Resistance is at 120.00 and 120.50. Below the latter level the bears will continue to dominate. A miss in NFP will make the pair challenge 118.50/30.

AUD/USD has lost some momentum as it failed to settle above 0.8000 as Australian labor market data was weaker than forecasts. Resistance is at 0.8030. Support is at 0.7900, 0.7840 and 0.7760. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release monetary policy statement on Friday morning. Buying on the dips may prove to be a right strategy.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: agenda for May 11-15

Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD rose to 1.1390 supported by the rising German bund yields before its advance paused as US labor market data came out better than some had feared.

Let’s see what the coming week is preparing for EUR/USD. On Monday, May 11, the euro area’s finance ministers will once again meet to discuss the Greek question. Although in April this date was referred to as the deadline for making decision about granting Greece the final 7.2-billion euro tranche of the bailout money, the recent comments from the European authorities show that a deal between the troubled nations and its creditors remains unlikely at this point.

In the past week Greece has managed to make a 200-million-euro interest payment to the International Monetary Fund. However, paying another 750-million-euro to the IMF on Tuesday, May 12, may be very difficult. On Friday, May 15, Greece faces a T-bill redemption for 1.4 billion euro – this is not a problem, because the nation can just rollover such debt. The payment to the IMF is trickier: if there’s no deal at the Eurogroup the day before, Greece will have to choose between paying the IMF and paying public sector wages and pensions. All this creates negative risks for the euro.

On Wednesday watch the releases of the euro zone’s flash Q1 GDP data. All in all, there’s a gradual improvement in European economic fundamentals and this should be reflected in the release and support the euro.

A close below May 1 high at 1.1290 and below the 100-day MA at 1.1240 will be a negative factor. Support is at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.0905. This support looks strong. A close above these levels will open the way to 1.1515/30 (50% Fibo of the December-March decline, February high), although the Greek uncertainty that will return to focus will make the ascent of th single currency more difficult.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 13
13 May 2015, 07:08 Comments: 0

Open positions:*

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 134.25, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 133.09

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0395, TAKE PROFIT 1.0546, STOP LOSS 1.0345

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 184.50, TAKE PROFIT 191.02, STOP LOSS 185.99

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7276 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7470 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.90, TAKE PROFIT 121.67, STOP LOSS 119.23

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5655, TAKE PROFIT 1.5945, STOP LOSS 1.5550

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8185, STOP LOSS 0.7876 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1205, TAKE PROFIT 1.1392, STOP LOSS 1.1129

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9320, TAKE PROFIT 0.9072, STOP LOSS 0.9415

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2044, TAKE PROFIT 1.1803, STOP LOSS 1.2117

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Trading plan for May 14
13 May 2015, 17:34 Comments: 0

EUR/USD rose above 1.1300. Initially the single currency was affected by a bit lower than expected euro area’s economic growth in Q1 (0.4% vs. forecast of 0.5%) and a decline in the region’s industrial production, but then the US released weak retail sales figures (growth slowed down from 1.1% to 0%) which hurt the greenback. This is the evidence that the US economy is doing badly in the second quarter. On Thursday watch American PPI and unemployment claims. In France and Germany banks will be closed for a holiday. Resistance is at 1.1390, 1.1470 and 1.1500. Support is at 1.1160 and 1.1100.

GBP/USD remains supported on Wednesday even despite the dovish inflation report. The BOE lowered its 2015-2016 growth forecast and confirmed that inflation will stay subdued before returning to the target in 2 years. BOE’s forecasts are based on gradual rate hikes, beginning from mid-2016. As a result, expectations for a rate hike in 2015 decreased today. Note that the labor market data reflected improvement. As for the technicals, we remain bullish for GBP/USD above 1.5500 and target 1.5790 in the coming sessions. Post-election optimism and USD-disappointment will likely drive the pair up.

USD/JPY slid to 119.00 and may test lower levels at 118.50/30 and 118.00. Resistance is at 119.80. AUD/USD jumped up to 0.8100 on the expectations on more easing in China and bad news from the US. Aussie has a chance to strengthen to 0.8200/40. Support is at 0.8030 and 0.8000.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for May 15
14 May 2015, 13:17 Comments: 0

Data released in the US on Thursday was mixed: the unemployment claims turned out to be better than expected, but producer prices unexpectedly contracted. The latter will add to the expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates rather later than sooner. On Friday there will be some more releases in America: industrial production at 13:15 GMT and preliminary consumer sentiment at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD tested levels above 1.1400. Support is at 1.1290, 1.1170 and 1.1100. Resistance is at 1.1500 and 1.1620.

GBP/USD rose above 1.5800. Resistance is at 1.5880 (50% Fibo of the 2014-2015 decline) and 1.5900 (200-week MA). Support is at 1.5625 (200-day MA) and 1.5570/50. Economic data released in the UK remain encouraging, but the Bank of England downgraded economic outlook in the Inflation Report released on Wednesday. The pound has potential to rise a bit higher, but be cautious with big longs.

USD/JPY found some support at 119.00, though the pair still looks vulnerable for a decline to 118.50/30. On Friday pay attention to the speech of the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda.

Support for AUD/USD is at 0.8060 and 0.8000. On the upside target lies in the 0.8250 area.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 15
15 May 2015, 06:47 Comments: 0

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1230, TAKE PROFIT 1.1534, STOP LOSS 1.1275

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5655, TAKE PROFIT 1.5945, STOP LOSS 1.5600

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9135, TAKE PROFIT 0.8936, STOP LOSS 0.9215

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8234, STOP LOSS 0.8000 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 134.25, TAKE PROFIT 137.64, STOP LOSS 135.03 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0395, TAKE PROFIT 1.0546, STOP LOSS 1.0345

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 184.50, TAKE PROFIT 191.02, STOP LOSS 185.99

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 118.83, TAKE PROFIT 120.28, STOP LOSS 118.28

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2044, TAKE PROFIT 1.1803, STOP LOSS 1.2117

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3587, TAKE PROFIT 1.3891, STOP LOSS 1.3537

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: same old song
15 May 2015, 12:20 Comments: 0

Elizaveta Belugina

USD/JPY remains in range. The pair pulled down from the levels in the 120 yen area, but got support near 119.00.

Traders are already used to the picture seen at dollar/yen chart: American currency lacks strength for growth because of the weak data, while the yen is weakened by the expectations of the additional stimulus from the Bank of Japan.

On Friday, May 22, there will be a meeting of the Bank of Japan. In his last speech the head of the regulator said that he doesn’t see any immediate need for further monetary easing as the broad trend of inflation is steadily improving. As a result, we assume that this time the regulator’s policy will remain unchanged. In addition, pay attention to the release of the Japan’s Q1 GDP on Wednesday and the US statistics, especially the Fed’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and inflation figures on Friday.

Key levels for USD/JPY remain the same: 119.00 and 118.50/30 on the downside and 120.00 and 120.50/85 on the upside. The coming week will be full with economic data, so the pair will likely be trading in a more volatile way.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

How much strength has EUR/USD?

EUR/USD is enjoying powerful support in the 1.1100/1.1050 – here one can find January low, late March and early April highs and May minimum. During the past week the single currency has managed to confidently overcome the 100-day MA below which it used to trade for a year.

The pair has 2 main drivers of growth: weak statistics from the US and rising 10-year German bund yields. The top in the euro will be confirmed only when demand for these securities picks up and their yields turn down.

Traders keep closing short positions on the euro: dollar’s exchange rate has prices in strong policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed, and now these expectations are being played back. Even the expected absence of the Fed’s rate hike in June will affect the US dollar. EUR/USD may rise to 1.1535/1.1585 и 1.1600 before the sellers get active once again. Near-term support is at 1.1200.

However, risks for the euro remain: Greece will soon run out of money. In 2 weeks the nation will once again be on the verge of default. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis claimed that he may call for the emergency meeting of the Eurogroup to ask for the delay of the debt repayments which are currently set on July and August. In the long-term if the euro keeps rising, this will hurt the euro area’s economy.

Next week there will be even 3 speeches of Mario Draghi – one on Thursday and two on Friday. In his last speech the ECB’s President repeated that the central bank aims to conduct QE in full volume. In addition, pay attention to the release of German and the euro area’s economic sentiment indexes on Tuesday as well as the European PMIs on Thursday.