Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

How much strength has EUR/USD?​

EUR/USD is enjoying powerful support in the 1.1100/1.1050 – here one can find January low, late March and early April highs and May minimum. During the past week the single currency has managed to confidently overcome the 100-day MA below which it used to trade for a year.

The pair has 2 main drivers of growth: weak statistics from the US and rising 10-year German bund yields. The top in the euro will be confirmed only when demand for these securities picks up and their yields turn down.

Traders keep closing short positions on the euro: dollar’s exchange rate has prices in strong policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed, and now these expectations are being played back. Even the expected absence of the Fed’s rate hike in June will affect the US dollar. EUR/USD may rise to 1.1535/1.1585 и 1.1600 before the sellers get active once again. Near-term support is at 1.1200.

However, risks for the euro remain: Greece will soon run out of money. In 2 weeks the nation will once again be on the verge of default. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis claimed that he may call for the emergency meeting of the Eurogroup to ask for the delay of the debt repayments which are currently set on July and August. In the long-term if the euro keeps rising, this will hurt the euro area’s economy.

Next week there will be even 3 speeches of Mario Draghi – one on Thursday and two on Friday. In his last speech the ECB’s President repeated that the central bank aims to conduct QE in full volume. In addition, pay attention to the release of German and the euro area’s economic sentiment indexes on Tuesday as well as the European PMIs on Thursday.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for May 20
19 May 2015, 13:22 Comments: 0

EUR/USD slid below the 100-day MA at 1.1175. Support lies at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000. The pair was under attack from both sides: the euro was weakened by the comments of the ECB board member about the asset purchases in May and June and bad figures from Germany, while the US dollar was strengthened by the unexpectedly good American housing market data. On Wednesday the Fed will release minutes of its April meeting. We don’t expect the central bank to signal a June rate hike, but once again say that all will depend on the economic data. This may limit the dollar’s decline, but with the increased pressure on the euro, EUR/USD should be a sell on rallies.

GBP/USD fell to 1.5450. UK CPI contracted in April on the annual basis. This means that the Bank of England may be father away from raising the interest rates than the market has thought. On Wednesday the Bank of England will release its meeting minutes. Decline below 1.5400 will open the way down to 1.5270 and 1.5150. Resistance is in the 1.5570/1.5600 area.

USD/JPY rose towards 120.50 on good figures from the US. The pair awaits the release of Japan’s Q1 GDP. Weak reading will help the pair get higher. Further resistance is at 120.85 and 121.00. Support is located at 119.90, 119.50 and 119.30.

AUD/USD fell to 0.7935. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes showed that the central bank doesn’t rule out further rate cuts. Support is at 0.7855 and 0.7780. The levels of 0.8000/30 are now acting as resistance.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/JPY: sell targets – 133.10 and 131.50


By: Dima Chernovolov

EUR/JPY reversed from resistance zone
Next sell targets – 133.10 and 131.50

EUR/JPY recently reversed down from the strong resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 137.50 and 136.00 (this resistance zone also earlier reversed the previous corrective waves 4 and (2) in January and February respectively). The latest downward reversal for this resistance area completed the preceding sharp primary ABC correction ② from the middle of April.

The active impulse wave 1 yesterday broke the sharp support trendline from the start of the aforementioned ABC correction. The breakout of this support trendline should add to the bearish pressure on EUR/JPY in the coming trading sessions. EUR/JPY is likely to fall to the next sell targets 133.10 and 131.50.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: daily recommendations
21 May 2015, 10:01 Comments: 0

EUR/USD found support at 1.1060 on Wednesday and recovered to 1.1150 on Thursday. French and the euro area’s manufacturing PMIs improved, though German reading fell. All in all, the figures released today show that the euro area’s economy is still in desperate need of monetary stimulus. The euro is currently facing resistance at 1.1155 (100-day MA). Further obstacles for the bulls lie at 1.1225, 1.1255 and 1.1290.

A close below 1.1050 is needed to make the picture turn bearish. The euro still has a chance to stabilize above this level. Traders will wait for further data from the US due today, on Friday and the next week. The ECB’s comments about buying more bonds in May and June may be not as strong as initially though by the market, because the general size of the quantitative easing (QE) program will remain the same. If the minutes of the central bank’s April meeting due today at 11:30 GMT show that the ECB wasn’t considering the expansion of the QE program, this may help the euro. Also pay attention to the speech of Mario Draghi and the FOMC members later today.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/NZD: sell target – 1.0600
22 May 2015, 08:37 Comments: 0

By: Dima Chernovolov

AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target – 1.0600

AUD/NZD continues to decline after recently reversing down from the strong resistance level 1.0810 (which also previously reversed the minor corrective wave 2 at the end of January, as you can see below). The resistance zone near 1.0810 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward price thrust from October. The price recently created the two daily Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns near the resistance level 1.0810 – Falling Star and Bearish Engulfing.

Having recently completed the intermediate ABC correction (2) - AUD/NZD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target 1.0600.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 25
25 May 2015, 07:02 Comments: 0

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1115, TAKE PROFIT 1.0882, STOP LOSS 1.1210 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.80, TAKE PROFIT 122.03, STOP LOSS 120.45

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9300, TAKE PROFIT 0.9599 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9279

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.2200, TAKE PROFIT 1.2352, STOP LOSS 1.2160 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7200

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.0450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0305, STOP LOSS 1.0507

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 187.30, TAKE PROFIT 192.00, STOP LOSS 187.82

Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3482, TAKE PROFIT 1.3891, STOP LOSS 1.3392

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7345, TAKE PROFIT 0.7177, STOP LOSS 0.7400

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

 

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for May 27



US dollar remains strong versus other currencies. American durable goods data came out in line with expectations with the previous readings revised to the upside.

EUR/USD slid to 1.0900 and may test 1.0800. Greece remains the main area of concerns. In June the nation has to repay 5.7 billion euro in short-term bills and 1.56 billion euro to the International Monetary Fund. Disagreements between the nation and its creditors remain in areas such as budget targets, sales-tax rates, and pension and labor market rules. On Tuesday Greek officials are negotiating with representatives of the European Commission and the IMF. The euro may also weaken versus the franc as demand for Swiss currency is mounting with increasing tensions in the euro area. Watch 1.0300 and 1.0225 on the downside.

GBP/USD fell to 1.5450. The pair needs to rise back above 1.5500 to relieve the bearish pressure. The pair is driven by the sentiment about the US dollar. Decline to 1.5270/1.5175 looks likely at this point.

USD/JPY reached 8-year high in the 123.00 area. Levels to watch on the upside include 123.66 (July 2007 high) and 124.13 (June 2007 high). Support is at 122.05/00, 121.70 and 121.00/120.85. The Bank of Japan will release its meeting minutes on Wednesday morning.

AUD/USD is trying to hold on to 0.7800. Below target levels lie initially at 0.7700 and then at 0.7650. Resistance is at 0.7950 and 0.7900.

USD/CAD rose to 1.2400. A close above this point will be bullish, but dovish comments from Canadian central bank are still necessary to allow growth to 1.2550 and higher. The Bank of Canada’s meeting will take place on Wednesday. No changes in the monetary policy are expected.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Deutsche Bank: USD/JPY has bullish potential
28 May 2015, 07:59 Comments: 0

USD/JPY enjoys a strong rally, hitting the highest level since the year 2002 (124.30 area). Despite the resistance ahead, analysts at Deutsche Bank recommend staying long on the pair. They are citing four fundamental reasons for more upside:

1) Trade balance. Japan trade balance turned back to surplus in March, but dipped back into the red zone in April. Deutsche Bank sees risk for the trade deficit to stay because of the oil market recovery.

2) Outflows. “While foreign interest in Japanese securities cooled in the first months of the year, Japanese investors expanded their purchases of foreign assets in Q1, with weekly flows in April and May suggesting they are holding up well”, analysts say.

3) Monetary policy. The US Fed is widely expected to hike rates in 2015, while the Bank of Japan remains clearly dovish. Rate divergence will increase.

4) Light positioning makes USD/JPY more responsive to widening real rates than in the year 2014. Real money was ready to buy USD/JPY at 119.00. We see the first resistance around 125.00 yen.

Trade idea: Buy USD/JPY on dips with a 125-128.00 target in 2015 and 130.00 in 2016.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Trading plan for May 29
28 May 2015, 13:23 Comments: 0

The US Dollar is trading in the green zone on Thursday despite the higher than expected unemployment claims. The market awaits the US Q1 GDP revision on Friday - according to Reuters forecast, growth will be revised to the downside from +0,2% to -0,8%. In our view, the pessimism is already priced in by the market, but the USD rally could still slow down for some time.

EUR/USD consolidates around the 1,0900 mark (55-day MA). Intraday resistance is seen at 1,0950. Next support is seen at 1,0810 and 1,0710. Watch the German retail sales, Spanish CPI and private loans in euro zone tomorrow.

GBP/USD extends the decline, falling below 1,5300. The market was disappointed by the news that the Q1 UK GDP was left unrevised at 0,3%. Next bearish targets are 1,5180 (50% Fibo) and the 1,5100 mark.

USD/JPY tried to retrace from the multi-year highs, but met buyers around 123,50. As a result, the pair returned back above 124.00/10. Watch the Japanese CPI data tomorrow. National core CPI is expected to have slowed down from 2,2% to 0,2% in April. The news could trigger a new wave of JPY selling. Targets are 125.00 and 126.80/127.10.

AUD/USD fell to 0,7620 on Thursday as the market was disappointed by the Australia Q1 CapEx contraction by 4,4%. The next bearish target is 0,7550.