Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY made a thrust to the upside peaking at 124.47, the highest level since 2002. The advance was caused by the market’s positive sentiment about the US dollar.

The expectations of a good NFP release next week may keep the greenback in demand. The next important level lies at 125.00, 125.75 and 126.20. The risk to this bullish scenario comes from comments of Japanese policymakers who may decide to halt the yen’s decline as a too weak national currency hurts importers and consumers.

Japanese economic data released during the past week was mixed: although inflation and industrial production surpassed analysts’ expectations, inflation sharply decelerated in April compared with the previous month (from 2.2% to 0.3%). Moreover, consumer spending remained extremely weak: the indicator fell by 1.3% from the previous year. The decline was surprising because in April 2014 spending in was already very low.

Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the current yen weakening in the past few days has been rough and pledged to monitor the situation. However, Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said on Friday the pace of yen declines could not necessarily be described as excessive.

On Monday watch Japanese capital spending data, and on Tuesday the nation will release average cash earnings figures. US NFP will be the most important event of the week. Support lies at 122.00, 121.50 and 120.80. As long as USD/JPY stays above 119.30, the outlook will remain bullish.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: sell target – 1.5100
1 June 2015, 08:22 Comments: 0

By: Dima Chernovolov

GBP/USD approaches sell target 1.5200
Next sell target – 1.5100

GBP/USD has been falling in the last few trading sessions in accordance with our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier broke the support trendline of the daily up channel from the middle of April (which has enclosed the previous primary ABC correction②). The breakout of this up channel accelerated the active impulse wave (3). The price is currently approaching the support level 1.5200, which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this pair.

If GBP/USD breaks the support level 1.5200, the pair can then fall to the next sell target 1.5100 (target price calculated for the completion of the active impulse (3)).

 

[haziq06]

GBP/USD: sell target – 1.5100
1 June 2015, 08:22 Comments: 0

By: Dima Chernovolov

GBP/USD approaches sell target 1.5200
Next sell target – 1.5100

GBP/USD has been falling in the last few trading sessions in accordance with our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier broke the support trendline of the daily up channel from the middle of April (which has enclosed the previous primary ABC correction②). The breakout of this up channel accelerated the active impulse wave (3). The price is currently approaching the support level 1.5200, which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this pair.

If GBP/USD breaks the support level 1.5200, the pair can then fall to the next sell target 1.5100 (target price calculated for the completion of the active impulse (3)).

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 2
2 June 2015, 08:53 Comments: 1

Open positions:*​

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0930, TAKE PROFIT 1.0732, STOP LOSS 1.1015

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.80, TAKE PROFIT 125.69 (revised), STOP LOSS 123.40 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5318, TAKE PROFIT 1.5150, STOP LOSS 1.5315 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9450, TAKE PROFIT 0.9599, STOP LOSS 0.9385

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2200, TAKE PROFIT 1.2667 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2410 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 133.90, TAKE PROFIT 137.64 (revised), STOP LOSS 134.98 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0234, STOP LOSS 1.0401

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3482, TAKE PROFIT 1.3891, STOP LOSS 1.3483 (revised)

Trade ideas:​

EUR/GBP: SELL higher

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for June 3

2 June 2015, 15:39 Comments: 0

EUR/USD rose towards 1.1200 on hopes about the Greek deal and a small improvement in the euro area’s inflation data. The press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi will start at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday. Everyone will be interested in whether the central bank will be really buying more bonds in June. Draghi will likely assess the QE program as successful and underline that the ECB is fully committed to it. Support is at 1.0925 and 1.0850. Resistance is at 1.12 and 1.13 ahead of 1.1570.

GBP/USD found some support at the 100-day MA at 1.5165 and rose above 1.5300 on better-than-expected UK construction PMI. Britain will release services PMI at 08:30 GMT. Resistance is at 1.5340 and 1.5500.

USD/JPY tested more than 12-year high at 125.05 before sliding to 124.00. Support lies at 123.30 and 122.80. Resistance is at 125.10 and 125.50.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7700. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept monetary policy unchanged and didn’t provide much of an easing rhetoric: the RBA is waiting for the Fed to make the first move. Australia will release Q1 GDP on Wednesday (01:30 GMT), a slight acceleration in economic growth is expected. Resistance is at 0.7740 and 0.7800.

In America watch the release of the ADP non-farm employment change at 12:15 GMT (forecast: +200K). USD will be data dependant. The sentiment about the US dollar is rather positive, so traders will be buying it on the dips.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/JPY:buy target – 140.00
3 June 2015, 07:54 Comments: 0

By: Dima Chernovolov

EUR/JPY broke resistance zone
Next buy target – 140.00

EUR/JPY continues to rise after recently breaking through the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 136.00 and 137.20. This resistance zone was further strengthened by the resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from December. The breakout of this resistance zone is likely to accelerate the active intermediate (C)-wave from last month (which is a part of the primary ABC correction ②from April, as can be seen below).



EUR/JPY is likely to rise further inside the active impulse wave 1 of the larger (C)-wave toward the next buy target at the resistance level 140.00.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for June 5

4 June 2015, 13:17 Comments: 0

The event risk in the coming sessions is extremely high. On Friday OPEC is due to announce the results of its meeting; Greece should pay 300 million euros to the IMF, while the US will release the key indicator of the labor market – Non Farm Payrolls – at 12:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, NFP increased by 226K in May.

EUR/USD reached 1.1385 driven by growth in German yields, but then returned to 1.1300 on better-than-expected data from the US released on Thursday (American unemployment claims declined). Traders are taking profits ahead of the US NFP release on Friday. We’ll surely see more volatility on Friday. The pair will follow the negative scenario (down to support at 1.1150, 1.1075 and 1.0975) if there’s no deal on Greece on Friday and the nation puts off paying to the IMF to the end of the month and if there’s a big upside surprise in the US NFP). If a temporary solution of Greek problem is found and NFP disappoints, EUR/USD may be able to rise to 1.1465, 1.1530 and 1.1600.

GBP/USD tested 1.5440. The Bank of England left its policy unchanged: the decision didn’t influence the pound much. Higher German yields are positive for GBP as well. Resistance is at 1.5445, 1.5500 and 1.5530 (200-day MA). Support is at 1.5300, 1.5250 and 1.5170 (daily MAs).

USD/JPY is fluctuating around 124.25. So far Japanese officials have done little to talk the pair down. There no bullish drivers for the pair from the side of Japan, but good figures from the US can push the dollar higher. Support is at 123.60/50, 123.30 and 122.70. Resistance is at 124.70, 125.05 and 125.70.

AUD/USD slid to 0.7725 after meeting resistance above 0.7800. Aussie bulls were discouraged by another dismal Australian data release. Resistance is at 0.7800 and 0.7850. Support is at 0.7600 and 0.7550. Selling the rallies looks like the best strategy.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

US Dollar: forecast for June 8-14
5 June 2015, 13:21 Comments: 0

Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the US Dollar revived at the beginning of the new week ahead of the US labor market release. The figures came out surprisingly strong: May NFP equaled to 280K. What’s more, average earnings growth index overcame the forecast, rising to 2.3% (highest since 2009). The data increase expectations for a Fed’s rate hike at the coming meetings. Growing income could support the consumer activity in the coming months.

Next week the US economic calendar isn’t very rich with events. On Thursday pay attention to the retail sales. According to the expectations, the indicator has risen from 0.0% to 1.1% in May. On Friday American will release producer price index – here a return to the positive area is expected (forecast: +0.4%). USD index could easily break above 98 points if the coming releases confirm the economic recovery.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

trading plan untuk 9 JUn

US Dollar is retracing lower on Monday following the sharp growth on Friday. However, we do not expect the bearish correction to be long-lived: strong NFP and average hourly earnings made the markets believe that the Fed could raise the interest rate in September. The market is now looking forward to the retail sales release on Thursday. Forecast is upbeat (+1.1%), so the greenback could get another boost.

EUR/USD recovered towards the 1.1200 mark from the Friday’s low of 1.1050. German bond yields returned to growth following the strong manufacturing figures. However, we expect the decline to resume soon: break below 1.1050 could open the way to 1.0820.

GBP/USD found some support at 1.5200, but we expect the pair to extend the decline this week. Watch the UK trade balance on Tuesday. Break below the 1.5200 support will open the way to 1.5080. We’ll remain bearish below 1.5450.

USD/JPY retraced from the Friday’s peak of 125.85, but holds above the 125.00 support. The pair remains overbought, so we could see a dip to 124.60 in the coming sessions. This area could be a good point to rebuy the US dollar.

AUD/USD has once again found support at 0.7600. Next resistance lies at 0.7740 и 0.7810. Watch the Australia’s business confidence index and home loans tomorrow. Data could surprise the market to the downside. What’s more, China is scheduled to release May CPI and PPI (forecasts – negative).