Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for June 25
24 June 2015, 15:14 Comments: 0

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar Index stands still after the Tuesday’s rally. United States released final Q1 GDP today – the reading as revised to the upside, but confirmed contraction (-0.2% vs. -0.7% prior). Markets await May consumption sector data on Thursday – forecasts are infusing with hope. You should also watch weekly jobless claims and Fed’s Powell and Tarullo members’ speeches tomorrow. We expect the dollar buying to resume.

EUR/USD growth attempts were capped by the 1.1230 mark o Wednesday. Renewed Grexit fears pulled the pair the 1.1200 mark. EU Economic Summit will take place in Brussels tomorrow. There still is a chance to reach a deal before the June 30 IMF payment deadline.

We expect EUR/USD to slide towards the 1.1050 support in the current uncertain environment. On the weekly chart the pair is forming a “bearish engulfing”. Medium-term downtrend seems to be resuming these days. Resistance lies at 1.1230 and 1.1400.

GBP/USD paused at the 1.5700 mark following a two-day selloff. Pound was supported by the mortgage approvals figures. However, we expect the decline to resume soon. Bearish target lies at 1.5550. We remain bearish below 1.5900.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

CAD/JPY: sell target – 99.00
25 June 2015, 08:09 Comments: 0

By: Dima Chernovolov

CAD/JPY broke support level 100.00
Next sell target – 99.00

CAD/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 101.00, upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from February (as you can see from the daily CAD/JPY chart below). The downward reversal from this resistance zone completed the previous primary ABC correction ② from January.

Having just broken below the round support level 100.00, CAD/JPY is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 99.00. Strong resistance remains at 101.00.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for June 26
25 June 2015, 13:48 Comments: 0

EUR/USD is fluctuating around 1.1200 as traders await news from Greece. It looks like the negotiators will take their time. On Friday there will be the second day of the EU Economic summit. Before that there will be more discussions and press conferences on Thursday evening. German finance minister Schaeuble said that Greece has actually moved backwards and that no progress has been made so far and that the difference between two sides has become larger. The key differences are over pensions and other budget cuts. On the other hand, EU’s Moscovici said the creditors agree with Greece on some aspects of reform proposals. Support lies at 1.1150 ahead of 1.1050.

The pound was supported on Thursday as the US dollar remained held by the hopes about Greece. Yet, there’s strong resistance for GBP/USD in the 1.5800 area. Support is at 1.5640 and 1.5593 ahead of 1.5550. The Bank of England’s Governor Carney will speak at 14:15 GMT.

USD/JPY is trading sideways. The latest US economic releases have been mildly positive for the greenback, but the yen is supported because of uncertainty about Greece. Keep an eye on Japanese inflation data due early on Friday: figures are expected to be weak and may lead to some USD buying. Still, there’s resistance in the 124.40/60 area ahead of 125.00. Support is at 123.20 and 122.45. The US will release revised consumer sentiment figures at 14:00 GMT on Friday.

AUD/USD has some support above 0.7700/0.7680. Resistance is at 0.7795/0.7800 and 0.7850. The near-term outlook for the pair looks neutral. No important releases are planned in Australia. NZD/USD recovered from 5-year lows, but New Zealand’s trade balance data if shows deficit may hamper the rebound. Resistance is at 0.6940 and 0.7000. Support is at 0.6850.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: forecast for June 29 - July 5
26 June 2015, 11:14 Comments: 1

Euro zone’s finance ministers failed again to reach an agreement about Greece on Thursday. The talks will resume on Saturday, June 27. According to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, it’s “crucial” to finally get the deal this time. For now the biggest problem in negotiations is that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsypras refuses to cut pensions. However, if Tsypras accepts more austerity, he may lose support of the parliament and will have to seek a fresh mandate.

There are 2 scenarios ahead: either the Eurogroup secures a bailout for Greece and helps it avert default or it starts developing measures to protect the euro area from the financial market turmoil. Greek government has to repay 1.6 billion euro to the IMF on Tuesday. Note that German parliament has to ratify any changes first before paying for a bailout.

Taking all into account the negotiations that will take place during the weekend, we can expect a volatile opening on Monday. EUR/USD stabilized between in the 1.12 area ahead of the news. Support is at 1.1050 and then at 1.0965 and 1.0825. Resistance is at 1.1300, 1.1465 and 1.1665. In our view, even in case of a Greek relief, the euro’s rally will be short-lived and will represent an opportunity to open short positions.

As for the euro area’s economic calendar, it’s not very full, pay attention to flash inflation data on Tuesday.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 29
29 June 2015, 07:57 Comments: 0

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1235, TAKE PROFIT 1.0887 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.1140 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5710, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.5643

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9370, TAKE PROFIT 0.9573, STOP LOSS 0.9278

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7645, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7739

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2285, TAKE PROFIT 1.2473 OBJ (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2275 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7211, TAKE PROFIT 0.6962 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7079 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0450, STOP LOSS 1.0395

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6970, TAKE PROFIT 0.6675 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.6929 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

USD/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

How to trade on Greece?
30 June 2015, 09:11 Comments: 0

Commerzbank: There was a bullish day reversal candle formed on Monday. Resistance is at 1.1290/1.1325 ahead of 1.1440/1.1534. Still, intraday charts remain negative. Strategists are in small shorts. Support is in the 1.0950 area.

Danske Bank: There will be safe haven flows as uncertainty will remain high ahead of Greek referendum, so EUR/USD and EUR/CHF will go down. The decline may speed up if the first polls show that Greek population is leaning towards a ‘no’ to the referendum proposal.

Westpac: The euro’s dynamics doesn’t match the news flow from Greece: the single currency is holding ground despite the negative implications of the nation’s default. Such resilience in EUR/USD may be explained by the fact that money is pouring into the haven bond markets such as Germany, France and the Netherlands. Month-end and quarter-end add to the difficulty of trading EUR at the moment, with liquidity likely to be thinned by those opting to stand aside.

Barclays Capital: “We recommend staying short EUR/JPY spot and also like being long USD/CHF spot.”

Citi: Buy British pound and Japanese yen versus Australian and Canadian dollars as commodity currencies will get under pressure because of the increased volatility and worse risk sentiment.

 

[haziq06]

Joms tuan/puan kiter mencuba untuk predict NFP:

Contest - Predict NFP
2 July 2015, 12:00 Comments: 1

You have a real opportunity to show your analytical skills and get an exclusive prize from FBS. All you need is to guess the Nonfarm Payrolls indicator that will be announced at 12:30 GMT on July 2 2015.

Contest conditions:

1) Post your guess here in the “Comments” section.
2) Your guesses are accepted until 12:00 GMT on July 2.
3) The first participant with the closest guess will be announced the winner.
4) Only one guess is accepted in the contest, thus a participant with two or more guesses will be disqualified.
5) Only one number is accepted as a guess.
6) The winner will receive a lucky t-shirt from FBS.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 1
1 July 2015, 08:27 Comments: 2
Open positions:*

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5710, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930, STOP LOSS 1.5643

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 137.50, TAKE PROFIT 133.10, STOP LOSS 138.15

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 191.90, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 191.15

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6970, TAKE PROFIT 0.6675, STOP LOSS 0.6886
Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3805, TAKE PROFIT 1.4163, STOP LOSS 1.3730

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

USD/JPY: Possibly SELL

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

UR/USD: forecast for July 6-12
3 July 2015, 14:19 Comments: 0

By Elizabeth Belugina

Greece remains in the limelight. The nation missed a 1.5 billion euro repayment to the IMF on June 30 and went into a technical default. Greek authorities surprised the market by announcing referendum on austerity measures on Sunday, July 5. In case of a “Yes” vote the current government of Alexis Tsipras might resign and the technocratic authorities will be appointed to secure a deal with creditors. If the Greeks say “No” as Tsipras is urging them to, Greece’s financial system will collapse and it will likely have to leave the euro area.

The results of the opinion polls change from day to day. On the one hand, the nation’s population is tired of spending cuts and other tough measures. On the other hand, people are afraid of the turmoil which will start if they reject bailout.

The biggest risk for Greece is the poor state of its banking system. Greek banks stayed shut during the past week and are to reopen on Tuesday, July 7. However, the lenders are running out of money. Greek companies have serious troubles with import.

All in all, the prospects of the euro look grim regardless of the outcome of the Greek vote. The “No” vote will make EUR/USD go down to 1.0800 and probably lower. The “Yes” vote may provoke a spike in the euro to 1.1350/1.1550. Here investors will once again start selling the euro, because political problems won’t end here. Don’t forget that Greece has to pay 3.5 billion euro to the ECB on July 20. This won’t let the relief last long.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/USD: possible upward correction to 0.7450
6 July 2015, 07:50 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

AUD/USD broke strong support zone
Possible upward correction to 0.7450

AUD/USD recently broke sharply down through the support zone lying between the support levels 0.7550 and 0.7620. This support zone has been repeatedly reversing up this currency pair from the middle of March –as you can see from the daily AUD/USD chart below. The breakout of this support zone intensified the bearish pressure on AUD/USD – accelerating the active minor impulse wave 3.

The price might correct up to the resistance level 0.7550 – from where the pair is likely to reverse down toward the next strong support level 0.7450.