Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

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Forex trading plan for April 17​

US dollar index keeps on falling for a third day in a row. US economic data keeps on disappointing the market: on Thursday we’ve seen weak housing market figures. On Friday the market will focus on March CPI (April: +0.2%).

EUR/USD recovered to 1.0770, regaining almost 50% Fibonacci retracement from the early-April downtrend. Growth remains limited by the 1.1050 mark: Greek default fears keep on weighing the sentiment. Greece will have to pay more than 1 billion euros to IMF in early-May. We will see, is the euro strong enough to close above 1.0700 today. Watch the final euro zone’s CPI on Friday (no revision expected). Mario Draghi will speak to IMF on Saturday.

GBP/USD pushed to 1.4940, but stays below the major resistance at 1.5000. We’ll watch the UK labor data tomorrow. Jobless rate is expected to have lowered to 5.6%. Political risk for the pound will increase closer to May 7 election, so be ready to sell the cable higher.

AUD/USD jumped to 0.7800. Aside from the weak USD, Aussie was supported by upbeat Australia’s labor market data. Jobless rate declined to 6.1%, while employment increased above forecast. However, note that AUD/USD is forming trend continuation pattern these days. Watch the 0.7915/30 resistance area.

USD/CAD – “la vedette” of the past few days. The pair plummeted to 1.2250 as the BOC promised not to cut rates. Watch a bunch of Canadian data on Friday (13:30 GMT). Forecasts are mostly upbeat. Yesterday’s drop below the 1.2350mark was a strong bearish signal for the market. Next support – 1.2180 (bottom of the daily Cloud). USD/JPY consolidates around the 119.00 mark. USD bears are much less aggressive here.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: watch bearish signals


Elizaveta Belugina

USD/JPY has breached down an important support line which was limiting the downside since the middle of January. The pair also went below 55- and 100-day MAs. This surely provides bearish signals. Now we expect the pair to slide at least to 118.30. Given the weak US data and the growing certainty that the Federal Reserve won’t start raising rates in June, further decline to the levels below 117.00 looks very likely.

Next week there will be only few important data releases in Japan like trade balance on Wednesday. Keep an eye on figures from the US, though there won’t be many of them, and the market’s risk sentiment.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 20​

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.78

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9450, STOP LOSS 0.9585

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7695

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 128.70, TAKE PROFIT 126.08, STOP LOSS 129.45

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0385

Trade signals:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.0740, TAKE PROFIT 1.0955, STOP LOSS 1.0680

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2305, TAKE PROFIT 1.2047, STOP LOSS 1.2370

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 21
20 April 2015, 13:21 Comments: 0

US dollar weakened last week on the stream of weaker-than-expected data releases in the US. On Friday, however, bright consumer sentiment provided the greenback some support. As a result, it reached technical support versus some of the major currencies and may strengthen a bit. Still, we don’t speak about the uptrend resumption in USD – for this we need more positive statistics. This week watch US unemployment claims on Thursday and durable goods on Friday.

EUR/USD met resistance in the 1.0850 area on Friday and fell approaching 1.0700 on Monday. The pair retraced 61.8% of the decline from April 6 to April 13. Big declines in the euro have paused, but the single currency is still affected by the Greek question: according to the comments of the officials, the nation remains far from the compromise with its creditors. The pair will trade in consolidative fashion until the Eurogroup’s meeting on Friday. Support is at 1.0700 and 1.0650/40. Resistance is at 1.0850 and 1.0920. On Tuesday Germany and the euro area will release economic sentiment data at 09:00 GMT, forecasts are optimistic.

GBP/USD spiked up to 1.5050 on Friday forming a shooting star candle on the daily chart. Next resistance is at 1.5163. On the downside pound may test 1.4800. Next support is at 1.4740. The approaching elections remain the negative factor for the cable. Next important event for the pair is release of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. No votes for a rate hike in the UK are expected.

USD/JPY broke below important technical levels last week, but found some support in the 118.50 area. Next support levels lie at 118.30 and 115.00. Resistance is at 119.30 and 119.70.

AUD/USD remains near the highest levels since the end of March as Australia released last week some better-than-expected employment data and China reduced reserve requirement ratio on Sunday in an effort to boost lending and economic growth. Support is at 0.7730 and 0.7695. The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 22​

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar

The US currency is struggling to recover following the last week’s selloff with the USD index reaching 98.70 on Tuesday. The US corporate profits are coming out slightly better than expected – in comparison to reduced forecasts. This factor could render some support to the US financial markets in the near term. You should also watch the US existing home sales and crude oil inventories on Wednesday.

EUR/USD

ZEW economic activity indices came out mixed on Tuesday with the German figures missing expectations (53.3 vs. 55.6 expected). On the contrary, euro area index surprised to the upside (64.8 vs. 63.7 expected). Euro zone’s economic calendar is rather light tomorrow, while on Thursday the market will focus on a block of PMI indices. Greek problem will remain on the table this week, pressuring the euro. Volatility could jump with every new headline, so watch the news flow.

EUR/USD has already given up 50% of the last week’s gains, falling below 1.0700. Continued USD recovery could put more pressure on the pair. Targets lie at 1.0660 (recent low) and 1.0620 (trend support).

GBP/USD

Cable follows the market trend, descending from the last week’s peak of 1.5050 (55-day MA). We expect the pair to reach 1.4810/00 area in the coming sessions. On Wednesday, the BOE is scheduled to release its meeting minutes. However, we doubt that many Committee members support a rate hike in the current environment.

AUD/USD

Watch Australia CPI on Wednesday – consumer prices are expected to have added only 0.1% in Q1 compared to 0.2% in Q4. We expect AUD/USD to stay under pressure: low inflation supports policy-easing expectations on a May 5 meeting. Technical support is seen in the 0.7700/0.7680 area these days. A break lower would open the way back to 0.7600 and 0.7550.

USD/JPY

The pair was in demand on Tuesday, testing the 55-day MA (119.60) to the upside. Watch the 120.50 resistance line that connects the March and April highs. Japan is scheduled to release March trade balance – deficit is expected to tighten.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/NZD: sell target - 1.0000


AUD/NZD reversed from strong resistance level 1.0200
Next sell target - 1.0000

By: Dima Chernovolov

AUD/NZD recently reversed down from the strong resistance level 1.0200 (the pair earlier made a few unsuccessful attempts to break above this resistance level, as you can see below). The resistance zone near 1.0200 was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i) from the start of March. The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.0200 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover (highlighted below).

AUD/NZD is likely to fall further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next sell target at the parity (which reversed the previous minor impulse (i) at the start of this month).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 23
22 April 2015, 14:45 Comments: 0

EUR/USD faces resistance in the 1.0775/1.0800 area created by the line connecting December and April highs. This together with concerns about Greece lets us think that the euro remains a sell. Support is at 1.0682, 1.0660 and 1.0640. Don’t miss the release of the euro area’s key manufacturing & services PMIs at 07:00-08:00 GMT. Slightly better readings are expected.

GBP/USD rose above last week’s highs testing 1.5080 to meet resistance provided by the daily Ichimoku and 55-day MA. Support is at 1.4860. The Bank of England’s meeting minutes released on Wednesday were regarded as a bit hawkish. Technically the pound looks good in the short term and may rise up to 1.5160. Be cautious with longs though: sterling is going to have hard times ahead of approaching elections. On Thursday Britain will release retail sales and public sector net borrowing data at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY recovered this week from support at 118.50, but met resistance in the 119.75 area (55-day MA) ahead of 120.35/50. Traders start to speculate about the Bank of Japan’s meeting on April 30, and the pair may retest 120.00. On Thursday watch US new home sales and unemployment claims.

AUD/USD is above 20-day MA (0.7680), but below the recent highs (0.7840). Higher-than-expected Australian inflation figures reduced expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut in May. On Thursday China will release HSBC flash manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT.

USD/CHF jumped as the SNB announced that pension funds can be subject to negative rates. The pair’s consolidating in the descending triangle, so one may set buy stop and sell stop pending orders near its borders.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: strong resistance ahead
24 April 2015, 11:13 Comments: 0

Kira Iukhtenko

British pound enjoyed a rebound for a second week in a row. The cable remains supported by the overall US dollar weakness. What’s more, rather hawkish MPC minutes released on Wednesday provided the buyers with an additional stimulus.

However, beware of the large sell orders clustered in the 1.5150/1.5200 region. This is where the trend resistance now lies. Break higher would open the way for a rebound to 1.5500, but it’s clearly too early to discuss a bullish reversal.

Next week we’ll be watching the UK first-quarter GDP on Tuesday. Services and Manufacturing PMI indices showed a rebound over the past months, so some economists expect growth to accelerate from 0.6% in the fourth quarter of the past year. However, there is always room for bearish surprises.

GDP figures matter a lot one week before the May 7 election: strong reading could support Prime Minister David Cameron and his Conservative Party and decrease the market uncertainty. Polls remain unchanged for now: both Conservative and Labour parties were stuck on roughly 34% each.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/USD: waiting for Stevens to speak
27 April 2015, 08:42 Comments: 0

AUD/USD is trying to hold above 0.7800. Last week Aussie was in demand rising for 3 days in a row. The pair was helped by better data from Australia and weaker figures from the US.

Resistance is provided by April highs in the 0.7840 area ahead of the 100-day MA at 0.7890. Support is at 0.7760, 0.7680 and 0.7640/25.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens will speak at 22:40 GMT. Traders will be watching the speech looking for the hints about the RBA’s monetary policy meeting on May 5. More traders start to think that the central bank won’t cut interest the benchmark interest rate this time. A positive factor for Aussie is the recovery in iron ore prices from $US46.70 a tonne on April 2 to the $US60 a tonne mark. The expectations of further monetary easing in China are also making economists more optimistic about Australian exports.

On Wednesday there will be important news from the US – American GDP for Q1 and the Fed’s meeting minutes.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

NZD/USD ahead of RBNZ meeting
27 April 2015, 14:11 Comments: 0

NZD/USD managed to close above the 100-day MA on Friday (0.7565), but faces resistance in the 0.7635 area on Monday.

This week is important for kiwi, because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand conducts meeting on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. Last week RBNZ assistant Governor McDermott sounded dovish as he said that the central bank isn’t considering an increase in interest rates at present and is watching for any signs of weakening demand and domestic inflationary pressures that could warrant a rate cut. Such statement was a surprise for the market players, because the RBNZ was on a rate increase cycle as it raised the benchmark rate from 2.5% early in 2014 to 3.5% by July.

The consensus forecast is that the RBNZ will stay on hold this week. Analysts at BNP Paribas think that the markets have overreacted to McDermott’s comments. In their view, New Zealand’s economy is in good shape, and the regulator will just emphasize that rates will stay on hold for a considerable period of time. As interest rates in New Zealand are highest among the advanced economies, the negative impact on NZD will likely be limited. On the other hand, weaker US dollar will push NZD/USD higher.

Further support is at 0.7530 and 0.7465. Resistance is at 0.7700 and 0.7740.