Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Mar. 26​

US Dollar index remains under pressure in the middle of the week, but holds above the Tuesday’s low. Watch the Fed’s member Dennis Lockhart speech on Thursday. In early March he made some hawkish comments. Also watch US unemployment claims on Thursday. Markets await the Friday’s final Q4 GDP – figures are expected to be revised up. That could revive USD demand on the market.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD is flirting with the 1.1000 hurdle, trying to fix above the 4-month trend resistance. Market sentiment towards the euro remains quite positive amid better-than-expected figures we’ve seen this week (PMIs, German business climate). On Thursday watch the German consumer sentiment index by Gfk – more positive news could follow. Next bullish target - 1.1100. Break higher would open the way to a stronger resistance at 1.1500.

GBP/USD is struggling to recover above 1.4900. Market volatility remains high. Next resistance - 1.4950. Anyway, we remain bearish below the 1.5000 handle. On Thursday don’t miss UK retail sales at 9:30 GMT (forecast – upbeat). US will also release BOE Financial stability report tomorrow.

AUD/USD bulls weakened on Wednesday: the pair rolled back below 0.7900. A daily fix above 0.7915 could become a strong bullish signal, while a decisive pullback – a bearish one. We’re waiting for clear signals.

USD/JPY still holds above the 100-day MA at 119.20 as we write. We target 118 yen in the coming sessions. Japan will release a bunch of data on Friday night – don’t miss CPI and retail sales.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/JPY: sell target - 126.90
27 March 2015, 08:55 Comments: 0

• EUR/JPY completed intermediate correction (2)

• Next sell target - 126.90



EUR/JPY recently reversed down after the pair failed to break above the resistance area lying between the resistance level 130.40 (former strong support level which reversed the sharp primary downward impulse ① in January), the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse (1) and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from December. The downward reversal from this resistance area completed the preceding intermediate correction (2) and started the active intimidate impulse (3).


EUR/JPY is likely to fall further inside the active impulse (3) toward the next sell target at the strong support level 126.90 – which stopped the previous impulse (1). Sell stop-loss can be placed at the distance of one daily ATR (average true range) above the resistance level 130.40.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY will remain under pressure



During the past week yen was in demand as a safe haven currency. Although next week tensions may produce less reaction of the market, global growth concerns can make traders keep buying Japanese currency. In addition, don’t forget the repatriation flows of Japanese companies’ income back to the yen with will support this currency in the first half of the week.

At the same time, data released in Japan showed that without the effect of a sales-tax increase last April Japanese core inflation – the Bank of Japan’s key measure – was zero. Although Japanese central bank has stressed it will look through the effect of slumping oil prices, the soft data will keep it under pressure to expand stimulus to achieve the 2% inflation target. Still, though unexpected the inflation release isn’t regarded as a sign that the Bank of Japan will add monetary stimulus at the coming meetings and this may be another reason to expect that USD/JPY will lack bullish momentum.

The bias of the pair next week will also depend on the attitude to the US dollar and American economic statistics. In Japan there will be some data releases, but of medium importance.

USD/JPY spiked down as low as to 118.30. The pair managed to get some support from the 100-day MA at 118.78. However, there are many bearish developments at the chart. It looks like the recovery, if it happens, will be limited by 120.00/50. Below 118.33 support will be in the 117.30/00 area.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Mar. 31
30 March 2015, 13:05 Comments: 0

Kira Iukhtenko

The US dollar is gaining ground at the beginning of the week, inspired by Yellen’s speech on Friday. The major event of the week – NFP – comes on Friday. In the coming days we’ll see a bunch of other important figures: Chicago PMI and consumer confidence data on Tuesday and manufacturing PMI and ADP NFP on Wednesday. All the forecasts are upbeat.

EUR/USD dipped below 1.0900 despite upbeat euro zone’s figures. Markets await news from Greece to come this week – the country is running out of cash again. European creditors have to approve the new funding tranche. Tomorrow watch euro zone’s preliminary CPI for March and the unemployment data. Break below 1.0800 would open the way down to 1.0600. Quick progress in a Greek deal could open the way to the 1.1000 resistance, but growth in EUR/USD is unlikely to be resilient.

GBP/USD pulled below 1.4800. Daily close below would be a strong selling signal. Next support - 1.4770 and 1.4700. We remain bearish below 1.5000. Tomorrow watch the current account data and the final Q4 GDP.

USD/JPY pushed higher, testing the 120 yen mark. The 55-day MA acted as a support (119.10). Recovery above 120.40 would be a good buying signal.

Commodity currencies also remain under pressure. AUD/USD extended the decline from 0.7940, hitting 0.7650 on Monday. Fix below 0.7640 would pave the ground to 0.7550 (recent lows).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Market Analytics
Large banks: positioning on EUR crosses
- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2015-0...-positioning-eur-crosses#sthash.YnhKOP6u.dpuf

EUR/USD

Morgan Stanley holds SHORT from 1.0920, TAKE PROFIT 1.0500, STOP LOSS 1.1060 (entered on March 27)

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.0934, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0951 (entered on March 27)

BNP Paribas holds SHORT from 1.0990, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1165 (entered on March 25)

Credit Suisse holds a SELL LIMIT order from 1.1098, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.1255 (entered on March 24)
EUR/GBP

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 0.7350, TAKE PROFIT 0.7015, STOP LOSS 0.7440 (entered on March 24)
EUR/JPY

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 130.85, TAKE PROFIT 126.95, STOP LOSS 131.88 (entered on March 23)
EUR/CHF

Danske Bank holds LONG from 1.0469, TAKE PROFIT 1.100, STOP LOSS 1.0250 (entered on March 27)

Societe Generale holds SHORT from 1.0580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9500, STOP LOSS 1.1100 (entered on Feb. 6)

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Mar. 31​

The US dollar is gaining ground at the beginning of the week, inspired by Yellen’s speech on Friday. The major event of the week – NFP – comes on Friday. In the coming days we’ll see a bunch of other important figures: Chicago PMI and consumer confidence data on Tuesday and manufacturing PMI and ADP NFP on Wednesday. All the forecasts are upbeat.

EUR/USD dipped below 1.0900 despite upbeat euro zone’s figures. Markets await news from Greece to come this week – the country is running out of cash again. European creditors have to approve the new funding tranche. Tomorrow watch euro zone’s preliminary CPI for March and the unemployment data. Break below 1.0800 would open the way down to 1.0600. Quick progress in a Greek deal could open the way to the 1.1000 resistance, but growth in EUR/USD is unlikely to be resilient.

GBP/USD pulled below 1.4800. Daily close below would be a strong selling signal. Next support - 1.4770 and 1.4700. We remain bearish below 1.5000. Tomorrow watch the current account data and the final Q4 GDP.

USD/JPY pushed higher, testing the 120 yen mark. The 55-day MA acted as a support (119.10). Recovery above 120.40 would be a good buying signal.

Commodity currencies also remain under pressure. AUD/USD extended the decline from 0.7940, hitting 0.7650 on Monday. Fix below 0.7640 would pave the ground to 0.7550 (recent lows).
- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2015-03-31/26980-forex-trading-plan-mar-31#sthash.GO5zHK08.dpuf

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Apr. 2​

The US dollar slowed its ascent on Wednesday following the release of the lower-than-expected employment indicator by ADP. The report showed the US private sector created only 189K new jobs in March. Markets are now concerned that the official NFP on Friday will also reflect the labor market slack (forecast: down from +295K to 247K). ISM Manufacturing PMI also surprised to the downside. You should also watch the US trade balance and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday to get more signals about the US economy. US dollar is expected to stay out of demand at least till the end of the week.

The other currency pairs are seen tracking the USD sentiment these days. EUR/USD recovered from 1.0720 on Wednesday, but the 1.0800 area is a strong resistance for now. Next resistance lies at 1.1000/50, while support - at 1.0600. The ECB will release its monetary policy minutes tomorrow.

GBP/USD remains under pressure below the 1.4800 mark. We remain bearish below 1.5000. Next bearish targets are 1.4740 and 1.4630. Watch the UK Construction PMI on Thursday.

AUD/USD slowed the decline on Wednesday, finding daily support around 0.7580. China’s manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside on Wednesday. Australia itself is scheduled to release its trade balance on Thursday - trade gap is expected to have widened in February.

USD/JPY pulled down from the 120.40 area on the overall USD weakness. Buyers’ indecisiveness reopens the way towards the 118 yen support.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 3

The markets are awaiting the long Easter weekend and the release of the US NFP on Friday. Taking into account uncertainty and low liquidity trading will be even more volatile than it usually is on NFP Fridays. Before the release (12:30 GMT) US dollar is expected to consolidate.

On Wednesday American ADP employment report disappointed dollar bulls, but on Thursday the US released good unemployment claims data (lower than expected) and trade balance figures. All in all, the recent US data releases give some reasons to worry about the US economy. A reading above 200K and gain in average hourly earnings should be enough for the market to expect a rate hike in June-September.

EUR/USD has found support above 1.0700 this week and returned above 1.0850 on the back of some more positive data from the euro area. Support is at 1.0800, 1.0750 and 1.0700.

GBP/USD was affected by weak UK construction PMI which fell from 60.1 to 57.8. Resistance at 1.4900 still holds. Next resistance is at 1.4950. Taking into account Britain’s political uncertainty, even in case weaker NFP pound’s recovery will be limited by 1.5000. On the downside potential target will be at 1.4630.

USD/JPY was rejected from above 120.00 in the first half of the week and spent Thursday below this mark. This makes the pair vulnerable to test support is 119.28, 118.85 and 118.30. Resistance is at 120.30, 120.50 and 120.80.

AUD/USD is weak. Resistance at 0.7660 has become stronger with the spike to this level on Wednesday followed by a decline to the 0.7530 area. Australian trade deficit widened and 17 out of the 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBA to cut the benchmark rate on Tuesday.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: picture gets worse​

Elizaveta Belugina

In line with our expectations USD/JPY met resistance at 120.50. The advance of the US dollar was constrained by weaker US data. For now dollar/yen is finding itself in range between 121.00 and 118.00. The pair lacks drivers for a breakthrough to the upside. On the contrary, with weak NFP bearish pressure on USD has increased.

The Bank of Japan will meet on Wednesday. We expect no changes in the policy of the regulator. This adds to the neutral/bearish view of USD/JPY. Tankan manufacturing survey showed that inflation expectations among Japanese companies have slightly weakened. Still that may not be enough for further monetary easing at the beginning of April.

Technically there’s scope for the downside in the pair. The pair may be forming a double top on the weekly chart with neckline at 117.00/116.85 area. American currency is supported by 100-day MA and the Ichimoku Cloud at 118.90/30. Still daily Cloud has narrowed and gave other bearish signals. USD should stay above these two moving averages to remain constructive in the near-term. Below the decline will accelerate to 117.00 and 115.85.

Resistance is still in the 120.50/80 area. A close above here is needed to lead the prices to this year’s high at 122.00.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

CFTC: large players cut USD longs
6 April 2015, 10:09 Comments: 0

Ассоrding to the most recent CFTC report, released on Friday, large players decreased USD longs on the week ending March 31. However, these figures don't consider the greenback's selloff on the weak NFP on Friday. Net USD longs contracted by 46K contracts to 367K contracts and are now at their lowest level since December 2014.

Despite all that, large players don't trust in euro: net EUR short positions kept on rising for a fourth week in a row and increased to 225K contracts. Short JPY positions fell for a third week in a row and are now seen at their lowest level since 2013, while AUD shorts - at their lowest level since September 2014. NZD positions turned bullish for a first time since autumn 2014.