Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Apr. 7
6 April 2015, 14:20 Comments: 0

Kira Iukhtenko, Elizaveta Belugina

US dollar remains under pressure against all the major currencies following the weak NFP figures released on Friday. The March reading came out twice below the forecast at 126K, lowering expectations for the Fed’s rate hike in June. It seems that we are now standing on the edge of a stronger bearish USD correction. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday added to market pessimism, coming slightly below the forecast. On Tuesday, the US agenda is light, while on Wednesday our attention will be glued to the FOMC meeting minutes release.

EUR/USD found support in the 1.0965 area and may test resistance at 1.1050 as traders are still digesting weak NFP released on Friday. The euro breached the uptrend resistance line last week adding strength to the bulls. Support is at 1.0950 (100-period MA at H4) and 1.0900. A break below this level will reduce powers of the buyers. Further resistance is at 1.1110/20.

GBP/USD pushed above 1.4950 on Monday, trying to recover above the January lows. This is where 38.2% Fibonacci from the Feb-March descent lies. The major strong resistance for the cable is 1.5000 – a daily close above here would confirm the bullish strength. Support lies at 1.4740 and 1.4630. Watch the UK Services PMI on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT (forecast – upbeat).

AUD/USD met resistance at 0.7700 on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 04:30 GMT. There’s a risk of a surprise rate cut. If RBA lowers key rate, Aussie will fall to 0.7500 and probably lower. Otherwise, the pair will recover to the 55-day MA at 0.7780. Our main scenario is AUD-negative.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Large banks: positioning on EUR/USD

Danske Bank holds LONG from 1.0874, TAKE PROFIT 1.1115, STOP LOSS 1.0799 (entered on April 7)

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 1.1025, TAKE PROFIT 1.0730, STOP LOSS 1.1115 (entered on April 6)

BNP Paribas holds SHORT from 1.0990, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1165 (entered on March 25)

 

[haziq06]

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/NZD: sell targets - 1.4120 and 1.4000​

EUR/NZD falls inside minor impulse 3
Next sell targets - 1.4120 and 1.4000

EUR/NZD recently reversed down strongly from the resistance level 1.4500 (which has been reversing this currency pair from the middle of last month, as you can see from the daily EUR/NZD chart below). The resistance zone near 1.4500 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from February. The downward reversal from 1.4500 completed the previous minor ABC correction 2 – starting the active minor impulse 3, which then broke the daily Triangle from March.

EUR/NZD is expected to fall further in the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next sell targets - 1.4120 (low of the earlier impulse wave 1) and 1.4000.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/CHF: buy target - 0.7600
9 April 2015, 08:24 Comments: 0

AUD/CHF rises inside minor C-wave
Next buy target - 0.7600

AUD/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the the support level 0.7200 (which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this currency pair), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp corrective A-wave from January (belonging to the intermediate ABC correction (2)). The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous B-wave with the strong Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Double-Doji Morning Star (highlighted below).

AUD/CHF is likely to continue to rise in the active C-wave toward the next buy target 0.7600. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the support level 0.7400.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/SGD: buy target - 1.3760
10 April 2015, 08:28 Comments: 0

USD/SGD completed intermediate ABC correction (2)
Next buy target - 1.3760



USD/SGD recently reversed up sharply from the strong combined support zone lying between the support level 1.3500 (which also previously reversed the minor correction 4 in February), 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) and the lower daily Bollinger Band – as you can see from the daily USD/SGD chart below. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – thereby completing the previous intermediate ABC correction (2).



USD/SGD is currently approaching the resistance level 1.3630. If the pair breaks this resistance level – it can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at 1.3760 (top of earlier wave B).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

13 April 2015, 12:57 Comments: 0

Kira Iukhtenko

Canadian dollar is worth watching on the new week: Bank of Canada meeting on Wednesday, retail sales and inflation data on Friday will likely keep the market on the stretch.
Fundamental background

BOC is widely expected to leave interest rate unchanged at 0.75% in April. However, these days we are much more concerned by the bank’s Monetary Policy Report. Current BOC economic forecasts still do not fully consider the oil shock effect, so the new ones will likely reflect lower inflation and growth expectations. Employment figures gave out a warning signal last week: the upbeat headline figures were achieved only due to a surge in part-time jobs, while the full-time employment went down dramatically. What is more, despite the current oil stabilization, price decline could easily resume in June when the impact of “Iran factor” increases. In this case, pressure on the export-dependent Canadian economy will resume.

Gloomy economic prospects will likely push the Canadian central bank to new rate cuts in the coming months. We forecast another 50 bps cut over the May-September period. While the Fed is expected to launch a rate-hiking cycle during the same months, monetary policy divergence will likely put the USD/CAD pair under pressure, offering new trading opportunities.
Technical picture

USD/CAD rally has clearly paused over the past 2.5 months, but the overall trend remains bullish. The pair failed to top despite the overall USD selloff in March. Solid buy orders are clustered around the 1.2400 mark: you may see the basing candles formed recently on a daily chart.

This week’s bunch of releases creates a high chance for pushing above the local 1.2700 resistance. Buy the pair on a breakout, targeting 1.2780 and 1.2830. From a broader view, the price is likely to leave the current consolidative range in Q2 with a medium-term target at 1.3060. The picture remains bullish above 1.2350.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for April 14​

Open positions:*

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0475

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.95, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.60

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.4680, TAKE PROFIT 1.4415, STOP LOSS 1.4745
Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3460, TAKE PROFIT 1.3190, STOP LOSS 1.3570

GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7500, TAKE PROFIT 0.7311, STOP LOSS 0.7560

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7638, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7688

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2575, TAKE PROFIT 1.2784, STOP LOSS 1.2490

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL at 1.0620/37

USD/CHF: BUY lower at 0.9710/00

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for April 15
14 April 2015, 12:50 Comments: 0

The strength of the US dollar was undermined by lower-than-expected retail sales and producer prices data. However, the weakness in American currency looks temporary and represents an opportunity for short-term longs.

EUR/USD is consolidating below 1.0600. The ECB’s president Mario Draghi will conduct a press conference at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday. As it’s too early for the regulator to give hints on QE tapering, the euro may find itself under pressure. We think of selling its attempts to recover targeting 1.0460 with stop loss at 1.0705.

GBP/USD is trading in the 1.4700 area after there was buying interest in the 1.4600 area. Inflation data came out weak, and this is a bearish factor for the pound. Taking into account uncertainty caused by approaching election, we’ll be selling British currency. On the downside the short-term target is at 1.4500. Main resistance is at 1.4850.

USD/JPY has so far been unable to settle above 120.50/80. However, support at 119.50 and 119.20/00 as well as at 118.70 looks pretty good as well. The pair slipped down this week as Shinzo Abe’s economic advised said that the exchange rate should be closer to 105 yen per dollar. All in all, we may see the test of support before the pair makes another go up.

AUD/USD is indecisive ahead of the release of China’s Q1 GDP on Wednesday. Chinese economic growth is expected to slow down from 7.3% to 7.0%. The target at 0.7500 is getting closer and closer. Resistance is at 0.7635 and 0.7738.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/AUD: buy target - 1.9600


GBP/AUD reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 1.9600

GBP/AUD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support zone lying at the intersection of the support trendline of the wide daily up channel from last year and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward corrective wave 2 from the end of March. The upward reversal from this support zone created the strong daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star (highlighted on the daily GBP/AUD chart below).

Having just broken above the resistance level 1.9400, GBP/AUD is likely to rise further – in line with the strong daily uptrend - toward the next buy target 1.9600 (this resistance level reversed the previous minor wave 2).