Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: buyers wait for the Fed​

During the last week USD/JPY rose to 122.00, but failed to hold there. Traders are focused on the meeting of the Federal Reserve which will take place on Wednesday, March 18. They don’t hurry to buy American currency wanting the confirmation that the first rate hike is coming soon. Demand for the greenback is also limited by the repatriation flows of the Japanese companies' overseas earnings ahead of the nation’s fiscal year end on March 31.

The Bank of Japan’s meeting is scheduled on Tuesday. The central bank is expected to leave policy unchanged. On Wednesday the nation will release trade balance figures. On Friday Japanese central bank will publish the minutes of its previous meeting. Still, events in the US will be decisive for the pair.

Technically there room for correction to 120.00 and 119.40. In case of the break to the upside, USD/JPY will likely be limited by 124.00 handle. There will be local elections in Japan in April. As weak yen is hurting small firms and consumers, Japanese authorities would want to contain the advance of dollar/yen.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 16
Monday, March 16, 2015 - 07:56​

Open positions:​

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0521, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.0593

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0295, STOP LOSS 0.9908 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2865, STOP LOSS 1.2596 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6961, STOP LOSS 0.7245

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7515, STOP LOSS 0.7265

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.4810, TAKE PROFIT 1.4646, STOP LOSS 1.4900

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7790, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7865

EUR/JPY: Look to SELL

EUR/CHF: SELL AT 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0414, STOP LOSS 1.0685

EUR/CAD: Look to SELL

GBP/JPY: SELL AT 180.00, TAKE PROFIT 176.75, STOP LOSS 180.80

Find more on FX BAZOOKA
- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2015-03-16/26803-danske-bank-trade-signals-mar-16#sthash.468q7rEt.dpuf

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Mar .17

US dollar is trading under slight bearish pressure following the last week’s rally. Markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to change its forward guidance, opening the way for a rate hike in June. At the same time they will likely sound concerned by the deflationary threat hovering above the economy. We expect the US dollar to remain supported at least before the meeting.

EUR/USD recovered towards 1.0600 on Monday. On Tuesday pay attention to the ZEW economic sentiment indices in Germany and euro zone – forecasts are upbeat. There is a high chance of a bullish correction in EUR/USD, resistance is seen at 1.0650 and 1.0700.

GBP/USD rebounded to 1.4800 after hitting 1.4700 on Friday. Wednesday will likely be a volatile day for the cable: UK labor data, annual budget and meeting minutes in the European session and the Fed’s announcement in the US session.

USD/JPY holds below the last week’s peak of 122 yen and is forming a short-term triangle that will likely be broken to the upside this week. BOJ will hold its policy meeting tonight – no changes in policy are expected now.

Commodity currencies are also in demand: AUD/USD recovered to 0.7650, NZD/USD – to 0.7390. RBA is scheduled to release meeting minutes tonight at 00:30 GMT. We’ll see whether there are hints on a rate cut in the coming meetings or not.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for March 18​

EUR/USD rose above 1.0600. US dollar was affected by news that American housing starts fell by 17% in February. Resistance is at 1.0700 and 1.0830. Support is at 1.0570, 1.0500 and 1.0450 ahead of 1.0300. The focus is on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday and press conference at 18:30 GMT.

GBP/USD met resistance in the 1.4850 area and slid to 1.4750. The UK will release labor market data and the Bank of England’s meeting minutes at 09:30 GMT. Support is at 1.4700 and 1.4650. Resistance is at 1.4900 and 1.4950. Bears will dominate as long as the pair is below 1.4900.

USD/JPY is in 121.50/10 area. The Bank of Japan left its policy unchanged in line with expectations having to impact on the pair. Dollar/yen is consolidating ahead of the Fed meeting. Narrow range is a sign that a volatile move is coming. Support is at 120.50, 120.25 and 120.00. A hawkish Fed will make USD test 122.00 and 122.90.

AUD/USD is consolidating around 0.7650. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia March meeting showed that the central bank still thinks that Aussie is too high regarding the fundamentals. As a result, traders will keep expecting that the RBA will further ease its policy. On the hourly chart we see the pair consolidating within a triangle. Support is at 0.7610 and a break below this level will bring the prices down towards 0.7500. Resistance is at 0.7680 ahead of the downtrend resistance line in the 0.7750 area.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Mar. 19​

US Dollar remains under slight bearish pressure on Wednesday ahead of the Fed's policy announcement. The Fed will likely change its policy statement, opening the way for a rate hike in June. However, we expect the greenback to decline following the meeting as the Fed will highlight the negative economic risks. On Thursday United States are scheduled to release jobless claims, current accout and Philly Fed manufacturing index (forecasts - upbeat).

EUR/USD consolidates slightly above 1.0600 and remains vulnerable to further selloff. The pair is unlikely to overcome the 1.0650/80 resistance area. ECB is scheduled to hold another TLTRO auction on Thursday - the demand is expected to be low. Watch the EU economic summit headlines - we could get some news on the Greek question.

GBP/USD plunged to 1.4630, disappointed by weak UK labor data and dovish BOE minutes. MPC members were focused on the downside risks to economic growth and inflation on the past meeting. They are seriously worried by growing policy divergence between the ECB and the BOE.

On top of that, pay attention to the New Zealand GDP tonight. Swiss National Bank will hold its policy meeting later in the day - we could get some hints on rate hikes planned for the coming months.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for March 20​

EUR/USD spiked to the downtrend resistance line connecting December highs and levels at the end of February in the area of 1.1045, but failed to sustain the advance. Retest of 1.0500 now looks quite likely. The market’s still bearish on the euro, but in the coming sessions volatility is going to be high, and we may see some attempts to bring the single currency higher, at better levels for selling. Traders are still digesting the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting and may remain indecisive for some time. Resistance area is at 1.0950/1.1000. Friday will be the second day of the EU economic summit, but no important decisions are expected: the Greek problem will take more time to solve.



GBP/USD has made a very volatile move to 1.5160 (bottom of the daily Cloud, 50% Fibo). The following selloff halted around 1.4800 and now the pair is consolidating in the 1.4900 zone. Britain will release public sector net borrowing at 09:30 GMT, forecast is negative. Yield spread continues to favor the USD and British labor data this week disappointed. The pair’s vulnerable for decline to 1.4720/00.

USD/JPY has touched 119.30 before recovering to 120.80. The Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes will be released early on Friday. This won’t be much of the news because the meeting in question was more than a month ago. The bulls will face resistance at 121.30 and then at 122.00.

AUD/USD spiked up, but failed to close above 0.7800 on Wednesday. There’s a band of resistance in the 0.7850/0.7900 area. Support is at 0.7650 and 0.7560; the bearish daily Ichimoku Cloud is still rather thick. Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens will speak during Friday’s Asian session. This week we’ve learned that the RBA has become more dovish at its last meeting, and Stevens may provide some confirmation of this idea.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 23​

Open positions:

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2640, TAKE PROFIT 1.2900, STOP LOSS 1.2505

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 129.90, TAKE PROFIT 126.57, STOP LOSS 130.85

Trade signals:*

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0939, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.1040

USD/JPY: BUY at 119.71, TAKE PROFIT 121.41, STOP LOSS 119.08

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4785, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4685

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9708, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9625

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7710, TAKE PROFIT 0.7914, STOP LOSS 0.7640

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7275, TAKE PROFIT 0.7015, STOP LOSS 0.7330

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7515, TAKE PROFIT 0.7712, STOP LOSS 0.7445

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Home / Forex Analytics Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 24

Home / Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 24​

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.71, TAKE PROFIT 121.41, STOP LOSS 119.08

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9708, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9625

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 180.20

Trade signals:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0979, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1063

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4820, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4715 (revised)

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7810, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7745

EUR/JPY: SELL at 131.50, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 132.15

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3575, TAKE PROFIT 1.3895, STOP LOSS 1.3470

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7555, TAKE PROFIT 0.7712, STOP LOSS 0.7495 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

The strength of the US dollar has diminished after the Fed’s meeting last week and comments of the Deputy Governor Fisher. Yet, American inflation figures weren’t as bad as some feared. Core CPI, though low, was a bit above forecasts. On Wednesday the market’s attention will be focused on the durable goods orders release at 12:30 GMT.

EUR/USD has approached last week’s high in the 1.1045 area which coincides with the top Bollinger band on H4. The next resistance is at 1.1100. Data from the euro area was marginally better, so consolidation will continue with buyers around 1.0870, 1.0820 and 1.0750. Don’t miss German Ifo business climate index.

GBP/USD so far has failed to settle above January low at 1.4950. Inflation data in the UK was lower than expected. The pair lacks momentum and may revisit levels just above 1.4700. Only BBA Mortgage Approvals are due in Britain on Wednesday, not much of a market mover.

USD/JPY is below support line of the 3-month uptrend. Daily MACD is declining. Further support is at 119.08/00 and 118.60. Resistance is in the 119.80 area ahead of 120.50. US data is the main driver of the pair.

AUD/USD is testing the 0.7900 handle. The pair has breached the downtrend resistance line and entered the bearish daily Ichimoku Cloud. Resistance is at 0.8032 (Jan. 7 low) and 0.8105 (100-day MA). Support is at 0.7850 and 0.7750. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its Financial Stability Review early on Wednesday.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/USD: how sustainable is advance?
25 March 2015, 09:47 Comments: 0

Elizaveta Belugina

AUD/USD has tested on Tuesday the highest levels since January at 0.7939 reaching the peak even despite the US released better-than-expected inflation figures. Yet the pair failed to close above 0.7900. Does Aussie have strength for higher levels?

The Reserve Bank of Australia has released Financial Stability review today. According to ANZ, although this report won’t prevent a rate cut in Australia, it made clear that RBA’s concerns about the high housing prices have increased. However, for now the majority of economists still expect the RBA to reduce its benchmark rate to 2% in April or May. As the central bank did cut rates in February, then it accepts rate cuts as a policy tool despite the heated housing market. The central bank’s statement that ‘further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead’ adds weight to such scenario. This should continue keeping Aussie under pressure limiting its advance. The next RBA meeting will take place on April 7.

Technically the pair has entered the daily Ichimoku Cloud and returned above the 200-month MA at 0.7796. However, there’s a bearish doji candle on the daily chart. Support is at 0.7750. Analysts at UOB expect AUD/USD to trade this week mostly in the 0.7655/0.7870 range.

Westpac believes that AUD/USD has some bullish potential in the coming weeks because of the weaker US dollar and improved price action in industrial metals. A break of 0.7913 will bring AUD/USD to 0.8000 and then potentially to 0.8300.