Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD awaits Yellen's testimony
23 February 2015, 07:48 Comments: 0

Kira Iukhtenko

According to the Federal Reserve's minutes of Jan. 27-28 meeting, many FOMC members think that the interest rates should stay near 0 for a longer time period because of low inflation and other risks. The central bank wants to see signs of continuing economic growth and recovery in inflation before raising rates. Policy minutes became a negative surprise for the dollar bulls.

Does it mean that we have to drop our June rate hike expectations? I’d better not judge hastily. The labor market is showing an upbeat dynamics over the past moths. What’s more, a stronger oil price recovery in the coming months would support the US inflation.

On the new week the US currency is expected to strengthen ahead of the Janet Yellen’s testimony on Tuesday, Feb. 24. She could pay attention to the positive economic developments that took place over the past weeks. Yellen is unlikely to discuss hate hike terms, but “hawks” would be grateful for any optimistic comments. You should also pay attention to the consumer price index on Thursday and to the preliminary Q4 GDP on Friday.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 24
24 February 2015, 06:48 Comments: 0
Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1451

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.70, TAKE PROFIT 120.48, STOP LOSS 117.98

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9602, STOP LOSS 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.7907, STOP LOSS 0.7715

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2475, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2501

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0629

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 181.45

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7510, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7450
Trade signals:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5588, STOP LOSS 1.5328

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.10, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 133.50

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7385, TAKE PROFIT 0.7254, STOP LOSS 0.7465

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Feb. 25
24 February 2015, 14:49 Comments: 0

EUR/USD is leaning to the downside. Support is at 1.1260 and 1.1200. Greece has revealed the list of reforms. According to the European Commission, this is a valid starting point. However, investors see now that Greek question won’t be solved soon, so upside potential for the euro is limited. The ECB president Mario Draghi will make speak on Wednesday at 16:30 GMT and may comment on monetary policy.

GBP/USD remains capped by the 1.5480 resistance (23.6% Fibo). Next resistance lies at 1.5589 and 1.5800, support – at 1.5370. The Bank of England’s Governor Carney said today UK inflation turn negative in the nearest future, but it’s expected to recover quickly. BOE notes stable wage growth. Carney will also speak tomorrow at 10:00 GMT. On Thursday watch the second Q4 GDP estimate (no changes expected).

USD/JPY keeps trading sideways. The pair rose above 119.40. This opens the way up to 119.60 and 120.00/25. Support is located at 118.33/27 and buyers should become active in case of decline to this point. Below 118.27 a decline towards 117.30 is possible.

Aussie dollar keeps on consolidating above the 0.7700 mark. However, the pair was once again rejected by resistance at 0.7850 on Monday. On Wednesday watch the release of China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Feb. 26
25 February 2015, 14:40 Comments: 0

EUR/USD remains mostly flat. The pair’s waiting for fresh catalysts. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi is to speak on Wednesday at 16:30 GMT and may make some comments on monetary policy. On Thursday Germany releases a set of data on unemployment numbers, retail sales figures and Gfk consumer confidence data. The euro area will publish business climate and M3 money supply data. Meanwhile, the ECB releases the targeted LTRO amount at 10:15 GMT. The outlook is neutral/negative. Thepairmaystaystuckinthe1.1440/1.1260 area.

On Tuesday USD/JPY formed a long spike up reaching 119.80. Then cane a selloff which brought the pair down to the 100-meriod MA on the H4 chart. Resistance is at 119.60 and 120.00. Support is in the 118.30 area ahead of 117.30. Uncertainty about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike points at sideways trading. There will be no news from Japan until Friday, so pay attention to the US economic figures, especially inflation data due at 12:30 GMT on Thursday.

GBP/USD is trading above the previous resistance at 1.5480. The Bank of England’s Martin Weale said that rates may need to rise earlier than markets expect. Although Weale has already said this recently, this time his words encouraged the bulls as the Fed’s comments were, on the contrary, very moderate. The UK will release revised Q4 GDP data at 09:30 GMT. According to the initial estimate, the nation’s economic growth has slowed down to 0.5%. Technically pound is trying to break above the daily Ichimoku Cloud, although it seems that it lacks strength. The close above 1.5520 would be a positive signal. Next resistance is at 1.5580 (100-day MA) and 1.5620 (Dec. 31 high). Support is at 1.5400 and 1.5350.

AUD/USD pushed to 0.7900, gaining more than 70 pips on Wednesday. Aussie was supported by upbeat Chinese HSBC PMI that has finally overcome the 50 points waterline. The pair recovered above 38.2% Fibonacci from the late-January decline, confirming a local bottom at 0.7630. Next resistance to watch lies at 0.7960 and 0.8000. Focus on the Australian capital expenditure data on Thursday (-1.7% expected versus 0.2% prior) - they could spoil the bullish picture. All the other market drivers this week will refer to the US dollar.

USD/CAD extends the decline for a second day in a row, testing the 1.2400 support on Wednesday. Next support to watch lies at 1.2350. Canada (alongside with the United States) will release inflation data on Thursday.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD: what to expect next week?​

Kira Iukhtenko

The US Federal Reserve sees the economy recovering, but waits for clear signals to begin hiking interest rates. The labor market dynamics seems to be on track, while low inflation, expensive currency and external threats stall the tightening.

Last week the US Chair Janet Yellen sounded more dovish than hawkish when testifying in Congress on Tuesday. The wording “patient” in forward guidance means rates are to stay low for at least two meetings. What’s more, rates could be increased only after the inflation stabilizes.

However, we remain bullish in our USD forecasts: the Fed’s is still planning to raise rates and discusses the right timing. On Thursday the US released inflation figures. Markets focused on core CPI that returned into the positive territory. As a result, demand for the US dollar revived.

On the new week pay attention to the PMI indices on Monday and on Wednesday. On Friday the labor market data will come into the limelight. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the US currency, but the market still has a chance to form a bullish candle for the 8th month in a row.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Key option levels
2 March 2015, 07:18 Comments: 0

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 909m), 1.1200 (EUR 673m), 1.1300 (EUR 594m), 1.1320/25 (EUR 908m), 1.1340 (415m);

GBP/USD: 1.5500 (311m);

USD/JPY: 117.50 (USD 650m), 118.00 (USD 1bln), 120.00 (USD 1.7bln), 121.50 (USD 700m);

AUD/USD: 0.7750 (AUD 520m), 0.7800 (AUD 418m), 0.7910 (AUD 747m).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: trade idea
2 March 2015, 11:53 Comments: 0

Dima Chernovolov

EUR/USD approaches support level 1.1125
Next sell target - 1.1000

EUR/USD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.1450 (which also previously reversed minor ABC correction 4 at the start of February, as you can see from the daily EUR/USD chart below), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier minor impulse wave (v) from January. The latest downward reversal form this resistance zone completed the second minor correction (ii) of the active impulse wave 5.

EUR/USD is currently approaching the support level 1.1125 (which reversed the recent sharp minor impulse wave 3 in January). If the pair breaks this support level, EUR/USD can be expected to fall further to the next sell target 1.1000 (target price for the termination of the larger intermediate impulse (3) from May of 2014).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Mar. 4
3 March 2015, 13:17 Comments: 0

Kira Iukhtenko

EUR/USD did it best to hold above the 1.1200 figure, but failed. The pair is gradually approaching the January low of 1.1097 – break lower would open a direct way to parity. Euro zone released relatively upbeat data at the beginning of the week, but the general picture remains bearish. Watch the Services PMI indices on Wednesday. On Thursday the market will focus on the ECB policy meeting that will be followed by the Draghi’s press conference. Traders await the details of the 1-trillion-euro ECB’s QE program that begins in mid-March.

Net long USD positions have been growing since the beginning of the week. USDIndexhashitan 11-yearhighonMonday. In our view, the ECB meeting could become a good “excuse” for the market to push with a new dollar rally. US employment and wages data on Friday could render further support for the American currency.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD slipped down towards the 1.5350 mark following the last week’s push to 1.5550, The BOE meeting on Thursday will likely be a non-event. Watch UK inflationary expectations on Friday – the figures could weigh on the sterling.

AUD/USD jumped to 0.7840 as the RBA left rates unchanged at 2.25%, but we see growth limited. Markets will be waiting for a rate cut on the next meeting. The expectations will pressure the Aussie in the coming weeks. Australia is scheduled to release Q4 GDP on Wednesday (forecast: +0.7%, Q3: +0.3%). You should also watch Chinese Service sector HSBC PMI on Wednesday. Even if the data are upbeat, we recommend selling AUD/USD from 0.7900/15.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for March 5
Wednesday, March 4, 2015 - 14:58

EUR/USD has weakened to the levels just above 1.1100. The euro is feeling pressure ahead of the meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Resistance is at 1.1215, 1.1270 and 1.1320. Further support is at 1.1050 and 1.1000.

GBP/USD has retraced 38.2% of the advance from January low to February high. The pair was rejected at the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and may fall to its bottom in the 1.5200 zone. Support is in the 1.5310 area (55-day MA). The Bank of England is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged.

USD/JPY failed to hold above 120.00 on Tuesday and may decline to 118.85/77 area where it should find more support. Resistance is in the 120.25/50 area. On Thursday watch US unemployment claims, factory orders and the speech of FOMC Member Williams.

AUD/USD is once again testing 0.7850 which corresponds with the long-term trend line resistance. Australia will release retail sales and trade balance data early on Thursday. Next resistance is at 0.7915. The expectations of RBA’s rate cut are pushed back, not dismissed, so Aussie will probably be limited on the upside. Support is at 0.7800 and 0.7750.

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