Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 5
Thursday, March 5, 2015 - 09:20
Open positions: *

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1247

USD/JPY: Hold LONG AT 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 120.82, STOP LOSS 119.05

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT AT 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 131.70, STOP LOSS 133.81

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7305

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7520, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7490

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9765, STOP LOSS 0.9534

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7880

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2380
Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5315, TAKE PROFIT 1.5182, STOP LOSS 1.5380

EUR/CHF: Look to BUY

EUR/CAD: Look to SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

_____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)
- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2015-03-05/26692-danske-bank-trade-signals-mar-5#sthash.ZYguQsDe.dpuf

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for March 6


On Friday the main event of the day will surely be the release of the US labor market data at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, US Non-Farm Payrolls have increased in Feb. by 240K after gaining 257K in Jan. American unemployment rate is seen declining from 5.7% to 5.6%. The average hourly earnings’ growth is expected to slow down. NFP above 200K will confirm expectations of the Fed’s hike this summer and will be positive for USD.

EUR/USD remains to be sold. The bearish trend reinforced when the pair broke below the recent lows. Resistance is at 1.1100, 1.1150 and 1.1215. Thebearswillremaininchargebelow1.1260. Support is at 1.1000 and 1.0950. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi has announced that the quantitative easing program (QE) will start on Monday, March 9. Although much of QE is already priced in EUR/USD and Draghi pointed out that the euro zone’s economy improved a bit, divergence between the ECB’s and the Fed’s monetary policies keeps the euro under pressure. In the first half of the day EUR/USD will likely be consolidating ahead of NFP.

The bulls were eager to buy USD/JPY. There’s still resistance in the 120.25/50 and then 120.80 areas to overcome, but the move up towards 124.00 is approaching. Support is at 118.85/70. Japanese authorities could try to discourage the buyers around 121.00, but is the USD rally is broad, the pair will continue going up. So, it all depends on the US data.

GBP/USD in on the downside and may test support at 1.5190/80. Failure to hold there will provoke decline to 1.5080. Resistance is in the1.5300/25 area. AUD/USD lacks strength to break above 0.7850. Support lies at 0.7720.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: outlook remains negative

EUR/USD has fallen to the new minimums. However, as the net short positions on the euro remain extremely big, the ever-present risk of correction up remains high.

The new week in the euro area will be light on the economic data. On March 9 the Eurogroup meeting will take place. Greece will be on the agenda. A couple of weeks ago the euro zone finance ministers approved a 4-month extension of the Greek bailout program and the initial list of reform which the nation has to conduct in return. On Monday Greece is expected to present the details of these reforms. According to the head of the Eurogroup, Athens can get 7.2 billion euro remaining in its bailout as early as this month if the Greek government starts adopting necessary reforms. Greece is now in a very difficult position as it has to make large debt repayments in March and has practically no cash. If it looks like the nation will get money rather sooner than later, the impact on the euro will be bullish.

Also on Monday the ECB will start its large-scale quantitative easing program, so divergence in monetary policy between the US and the euro area will remain one of the main themes. The ECB will purchase bonds with negative yields, and this should dispel concerns that it won’t be able to achieve its balance sheet target.

At the same time, while the ECB lowered 2015 inflation forecast justifying QE, its president Mario Draghi predicted improvements in the euro area’s economy and said that the central bank’s actions do bring positive results. This should make the market feel a bit better about the euro.

Although EUR/USD is much oversold, it went below 1.1210 (61.8% Fibo of the advance in 2000-2008). Resistance in the 1.1260/70 area is expected to be strong. Support is at 1.08 and 1.05.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Goldman Sachs dropped oil prices
9 March 2015, 09:35 Comments: 0

Global oil quotes decline on Monday. Brent oil is trading under pressure with the price falling to $59,40. WTI price declined towards $49,59. Quotes decline following the release of the fresh Goldman Sachs forecast.

Economists of the largest US bank expect the oil prices to resume the decline in spring 2015 on the back of the growing supply. Prices recovered in early 2015 amid increased uncertainty in the Middle East. However, analysts don't expect this effect to be long-playing. Prices will liekly stay under pressure all over the year 2016.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Trading plan for Mar. 10​

On Monday EUR/USD has retraced 38.2% of Friday’s decline, but met resistance around 1.0900. There’s bullish divergence on the daily chart and the euro looks oversold. However, the market’s sentiment about the euro is still negative, so corrections up will likely be shallow. Resistance is at 1.0925, 1.0950 and 1.1000 and the euro is to be sold on rallies. Support lies at 1.0800, 1.0760 (Sept. 2003 low) and 1.0558 (April 2003 low).

Markets are looking forwards to the news from Greece which so far isn’t inspiring. Greece Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said that the nation could be forced into fresh elections or a referendum if euro zone finance ministers reject its plans to ease austerity. The head of European Commission Juncker and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras will meet on Friday.

USD/JPY is now using previous resistance at 120.50 as support. Further support is at 119.80. Japanese economic growth was revised to the downside. On the upside the next target is at 121.85. Buying on the dips is the strategy.

AUD/USD hovers around its 6-year lows of 0.7720, testing the 200-month MA to the downside. The pair awaits another bearish impulse to speed the downside up. Next support will be seen at 0.7630/00. Tonight watch the NAB Business Confidence figures in Australia. What’s more, China will publish inflation figures tonight – producer prices will likely stay in their deep zero.

GBP/USD has recovered some ground on Monday, but holds below the 1.5100 mark following the sharp selloff on Friday. Technical picture turned clearly bearish as the pair closed the past week below 1.5200. Support lies at 1.5030/00 and 1.4950. On Tuesday the BOE Governor Carney will hold a speech at 14:35 GMT in London

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Mar. 11​

Demand for the greenback keeps on rising after the strong US labor market data released on Friday. However, we have to note that the US dollar longs contacted on a week that ended on March 3. Large players have some doubts about the USD rally sustainability. Watch the retail sales figures on Thursday – we could see growth after two months in the negative territory.

EUR/USD is trading at the 2003 lows (1.0720 as we write). The ECB’s QE program has finally been launched yesterday. The ECB Governor Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak tomorrow in Frankfurt.

GBP/USD attempted to recover after a sharp selloff on Friday, but faced resistance at 1.5130. Next levels to watch below the price are 1.5030, 1.5000 and 1.4950. Watch the UK manufacturing data (forecast: + 0.2%, prior: +0.1%) and the NIESR GDP estimate on Wednesday. EUR/GBP fell to its lowest level since December 2007.

USD/JPY pushed to a new high of 122 yen on Tuesday – this is the lowest level since summer 2007. Japan is scheduled to release core machinery orders tonight (forecast – downbeat). Commodity currencies are also doomed for a decline. Aussie dollar holds around the 5-year lows below the 0.7700 mark, while NZD/USD dipped below 0.7250. Watch industrial production data in Chana tomorrow – growth is expected to have slowed from 7.9% to 7.7%. RBNZ will announce its monetary policy decision tonight – some economists forecast a rate cut.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/USD: trade idea
11 March 2015, 09:13 Comments: 0

Dima Chernovolov

AUD/USD reached sell target 0.7640
Next sell target - 0.7500

AUD/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking the support level 0.7640, which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level was preceded by the breakout of the daily up channel from the start of February (which has enclosed the preceding intermediate ABC correction (4)). The breakout of this up channel accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (5) from last month.

AUD/USD is expected to fall further in the active impulse wave (5) to the next sell target 0.7500 (intersecting with the support trendline of the wide daily down channel from last month). Sell stop-loss can be placed one daily ATR above the broken price level 0.7640.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for March 12​

EUR/USD is hurt by the falling bond yields in the euro area because of the ECB’s QE. The 1.0560 area may offer some support. Corrections will face resistance at 1.0650. Further support is at 1.0500. Data from the US due on Thursday (retails sales, unemployment claims) is expected to improve. This could increase pressure on the euro.

USD/JPY has formed a doji with a long upper shadow on Tuesday unable to close above the psychological level of 122.00 which is now acting as resistance ahead of 124.00. Negative risk sentiment is holding the bulls. Decline below 120.80 will make the pair fall to 120.00 and probably to 119.40.

GBP/USD is affected by the news about the decline in the UK manufacturing & industrial production. Pound is vulnerable for decline to long-term support in the 1.4815 area. The level of 1.5030 will now form resistance. Watch for comments from the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney: in his recent speeches he tended to reassure the markets.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7500 – the bears would like to touch this level. Resistance is in the 0.7720/00 area. Watch Australian labor market data release during the Asian session.

Find more on FX BAZOOKA
- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2015-03-11/26772-forex-trading-plan-march-12#sthash.0uQ0RxQX.dpuf

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for March 13​

US dollar corrected down on Thursday versus the major currencies as America released weaker than expected retail sales figures (-0.6% vs. the forecast of +0.3%). Another month of contraction in the retail sales could raise serious doubts regarding the positive effect of weak energy prices. The unemployment claims, however, were better – lower – than expected. On Friday America will release producer prices and consumer sentiment data.

EUR/USD tested levels below 1.0500, but then corrected up to 1.0680. Resistance is at 1.0700 and 1.0830. However, the general market’s sentiment about the euro remains bearish. Support is at 1.0560 and 1.0500.

GBP/USD recovered almost to 1.5030, but met resistance there. The risks are to the downside. Support is at 1.4915 and 1.4813. Bank of England's Governor Mark Carney sounded a bit dovish saying that low global CPI and strong pound may weigh on UK prices for some time.

USD/JPY may have formed a temporary top and can slide to the 120.00/119.70 area. Resistance is at 121.65 and 122.00. AUD/USD will face resistance at 0.7800 and looks set to print 0.7500.