Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

European stocks start mixed

On Tuesday, European stocks were mixed, as market sentiment remained globally upbeat, following the election of Donald Trump as president of America the previous week, while dismal German third-quarter growth weighed.

During European morning trade, the EURO STOXX 50 went down 0.32%, French CAC 40 ascended 0.24%, while German DAX 30 lost 0.10%.

Market sentiment remained broadly backed by hopes that increased fiscal spending as well as tax cuts under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation.

However, hopes for higher American interest rates also remained intact, following optimism that a pick-up in growth will enable the Fed to tighten borrowing costs.

Earlier on Tuesday, preliminary data disclosed that German GDP ascended 2% during the third quarter, thus ruining hopes for a surge of 0.3% and down from a surge rate of 0.4% in the previous quarter.

In London, FTSE 100 managed to gain up to 0.59%, backed by Pearson Plc, whose stocks rose 5.32%.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: bulls are still active

Technical levels: support – 108.50, 107.30; resistance – 109.70, 110.10.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 109.70; SL — 109.90; TP1 — 108.50; TP2 — 108.00.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising lines of Ichimoku Indicator; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen over the Clouds; but there is an overbought market and a strong resistance levels.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

German economy generates more jobs, though employment growth slows

More folks joined the German workforce over the summer months, though the overall rate of job creation slowed moderately compared with previous quarters. That’s what data revealed on Thursday, suggesting domestic support for growth in the EU’s biggest economy could weaken.

The economy is surging dependent on sturdy domestic demand to bolster growth as well as offset weakness in foreign trade. A table ascend in employment levels, growing real wages and also low interest rates are powering household spending.

In the three months through September, up to 388,000 German citizens joined the workforce, thus increasing it by 0.9% on the year to about 43.7 million, as data from the Federal Statistics Office disclosed. The surge was powered mostly by the services sector.

It marked a slowdown from job growth of approximately 1.2% during the second quarter and 1.3% in the first and also mirrored a wider economic slowdown over the summer months.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Japan October exports are seen dropping again

In October, Japanese exports dipped for a 13 straight month, while core consumer prices descended for an eight month in a row because of a strong yen, as a Reuters survey showed on Friday, thus casting doubt on hopes for a sustainable economic revival.

Exports were supposed to have sunk 8.6% in the year to October. Meanwhile, imports might have sagged 16.3%, according to the survey of 21 economists.

It would result in a trade surplus of about 615.4 billion yen in October, the poll revealed, up from a revised 497.6 billion yen surplus last month.

Considering the recent volume of exports, they aren’t so bad, though a strong yen is weighing on the value of exports as well as exporters' profits.

An inventory adjustment overseas has progressed and it’s definitely favorable for business confidence. So if export data demonstrates a solid tone, it will probably back a view that confidence will catch up. Moreover, recent drops in the Japanese yen will help corporate revenues.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: bears going to test the next support

Bears faced a support at 1.0600, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.0550 – 1.0522. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0636 – 1.0673.

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place between a support at 1.0561 and a resistance at 1.0636. If we see any bearish pattern later on, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.0550 – 1.0522. However, if a pullback from these levels arrives, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: euro is dreaming of the balance of powers

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there are two long-term patterns - "Head and shoulders" and "Crab". Target 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern corresponds to 1,004. The outlook for this pair is still "bearish", so, correction should be used for the opening of short positions.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there is an acceleration of the downtrend which increases the risk of implementation of reversal pattern "Splash and reversal with acceleration". However, until the quotes rise above the upper boundary of the last downward channel, the "bears" will retain their control over the market.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,073 SL 1,0785 TP1 1,05 TP2 1,004

SELL 1,076 SL 1,0814 TP1 1,05 TP2 1,004.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/USD: aussie finished the local correction

Technical levels: support – 0.7390, 0.7360; resistance – 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7430/40; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7360; TP2 — 0.7320.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud but there is a rising Senkou Span A; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are above Kijun-sen; strong resistance near 0.7440.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Euro zone composite PMI suddenly increases in November

In November, economic activity in the euro zone suddenly ascended, registering its strongest growth this year, as both the manufacturing and service sector leapt more than forecast, as preliminary data disclosed on Wednesday.

In a report, market research group Markit informed that its flash Euro Zone Composite Output Index, gauging the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors soared to 54.1 in November, from the previous month’s reading of 53.3 and above predictions for no change.

The flash services purchasing managers’ index ascended to 54.1 this month, from October’s final outcome of 52.8, ruining expectations for an outcome of 53.0.

The preliminary euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index suddenly leapt to a seasonally adjusted 53.7 this month from a final result of 53.5 in October. It happened to be a 34-month peak.

Experts had expected the index to drop to 53.3 in November.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Morning brief for November 25, 2016

USD/JPY climbed above 113.90 overnight on rising 10-year US bond yields. Japanese inflation data came slightly higher than it was expected and ahead of the figure of the last month, but it is still very low to push BOJ to taper its accommodative monetary policy.

EUR/USD slipped down yesterday in the countdown to Italy’s constitutional referendum scheduled for December 4. The euro rose to 1.0575 in the course of Asian session as 10-year US Treasuries had finally slowed down their pace. Later today we will receive goods trade balance data for the US (the consensus forecast indicates an extended divergence between American exports and imports), and flash services PMI.

AUD/USD gained some point having risen to 0.7435 mainly of the rising prices of copper and iron ore. Kiwi moved upwards to 0.7025 in the cross with USD availing of the drop in the US Treasuries.

USD/CAD slid down below 1.3480 due to the weakening of the greenback. Oil prices were mostly steady as investors are waiting for the next week's meeting of the OPEC for clarity on proposed output cut.

GBP/USD didn’t make big moves on the session. The pair is slowly rising towards the next resistance line located at 1.2465. The trigger of today’s session is the British second estimate GDP. The reading should be bullish for the pound. Many strategists call on the market participants to give the pound a break. It has already weakened significantly since the UK voted to leave the EU on June 23. There is little reason to buy/sell the cable aggressively before any news on the UK/EU relationship surface.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: bulls are going to start counter-attack

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is the long-awaited correction towards the downtrend. We can consider the surge in quotes in the course of the trading session on November 9 as the market noise; the extent of the rollback can be measured with the Fibonacci retracement levels. Nearest resistance levels are located at 1,0757-1,077 and 1,083.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, for the development of counter-attack in the direction of the 113% target in the "Shark" reversal pattern, "bulls" should test the current resistance at 1.0665. If they fail to do so, there can be the restoration of the downtrend.



Recommendations:

SELL 1,077 SL 1,0825 TP1 1,04 TP2 1,022

SELL 1,083 SL 1,0885 TP1 1,04 TP2 1,022.

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