Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Greenback goes up, as Fed meeting looms

On Tuesday, the evergreen buck pushed higher against the common currency and the yen, as market participants turned their focus to the outcome of the Federal Reserve policy gathering starting later in the day, amid widespread hopes for a rate lift.

The U.S. dollar index, measuring the US dollar’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six key currencies, rallied 0.14%, hitting 101.14.

The Fed is widely supposed to raise rates for the first time in a year on at the conclusion of its gathering on Wednesday, with market participants pricing in a 100% likelihood of a surge.

The Fed will also announce updated economic forecasts, while markets will be monitoring closely signals on the outlook for inflation and also the expected pace of rate lifts in 2017.

Traders were still wary amid concerns that the major US bank could strike a cautious tone on the outlook for policy tightening in 2017.

The currency pair EUR/USD declined 0.15%, hitting 1.0620. USD/JPY shot up 0.28%, getting to 115.33, holding below Monday’s peaks of 116.12, the strongest value since February 8.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: "Thorn" stopped bulls

There’s a local consolidation inside the resistance area. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance on the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to test a support at 1.0655 – 1.0594.

The price is consolidating between a resistance at 1.0666 and a support at 1.0603. So, the pair is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.0666 – 1.0697.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: local bullish "Flag"

The pair found a resistance at 1.2498, so the price is consolidating. Considering the previously formed “Upward Wedge”, the market is likely going to rise towards a support at 1.2384 – 1.2358. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to have an achievement of the next resistance at 1.2476 – 1.2498.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price is trading under the 34 Moving Average. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so bulls are likely going to get a resistance on the 55 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line be on the table, bears will try to reach the nearest support between the levels 1.2418 – 1.2384.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: "Triple Top" led to decline

The price is consolidating between a resistance at 1.2498 and a support at 1.2309. Considering the previously formed “Wedge” pattern, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2358 – 1.2309 in the short term. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an option to have a bullish correction.

We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Pennant” pattern as well. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2309. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will have an opportunity to push the price in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2384.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Gold struggles near 11-month minimums as firm greenback weighs

On Wednesday, gold struggled close to the previous week's 11-month minimums, as a firm American dollar and the possibility of further American interest rate lifts next year kept weighing.

In New York, February delivery gold futures rallied 0.15%, hitting $1,135.35 per troy ounce, having fallen 0.8% during the last session.

Prices of the number one precious metal dipped to $1,124.30 the previous week, an outcome not observed since February 2.

The dollar index, measuring the US dollar’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six key currencies, was little changed, showing 103.21 during early trade. The index managed to rise to 103.62 on Tuesday, thus demonstrating the strongest outcome since December 2002.

Since the American election in early November, the dollar index has surged almost 6% thanks to bets of higher American growth and a faster tempo of interest rate surges under incoming president Donald Trump.

March delivery silver futures lost 0.1%, hitting $16.10 a troy ounce, platinum dipped 0.7%, trading at $917.40, palladium sank 1.14%, reaching $663.17 an ounce, the lowest value since November 9.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: consolidation on Tenkan-sen

Technical levels: support – 1.2350; resistance – 1.2390, 1.2410.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2390; SL — 1.2410; TP1 — 1.2320; TP2 — 1.2300.

Reason: bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are inside of the channel of Tenkan-Kijun.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Gold rallies, but remains close to 10-month low

On Friday, gold edged up, but the number one precious metal was still keeping to a 10-month low as the stronger American dollar and hopes for more American rate lifts next year kept weighing.

In New York, February delivery gold futures rose 0.13%, hitting $1,132.15, not far from the 10-month minimum of December 15 at $1,123.90.

The February contract concluded Thursday’s trading session 0.22% lower at $1,130.70 an ounce.

Futures were about to gain support at $1,123.90 and also resistance at $1,136.10, Wednesday’s peak.

The greenback was boosted after American Commerce Department told on Thursday that GDP rallied at an annual rate of 3.5% for the three months by September 30, up from last estimate of 3.2% and exceeding hopes for 3.3%.

The US dollar has been broadly backed since the Fed concluded its policy gathering the previous week by increasing interest rates by 25 basis points and forecast three more rate lifts in 2017.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to end on 2/8 MM Level

The last pullback from 1/8 MM Level led to an upward correction, so we have wave [ii], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Previously a bearish impulse in wave has been formed. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline in wave [iii].

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (b) is taking form of a double zigzag. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave (c) of [ii] in the short term. If we see another pullback from 6/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish impulse.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Japanese companies ramp up output



In November, Japanese factory output ascended and manufacturers expect to spur output in coming months, data demonstrated on Wednesday, underscoring the major bank's view that a pick-up in global demand will ensure a steady economic recovery.

In November, retail sales also increased and inventory dipped for three straight months, thus suggesting a broader improvement in the Japanese economy, with a recent rebound in exports also observed supporting growth.

The figures back the dominant market view that the Bank of Japan is going to hold off on expanding monetary stimulus in the nearer months.

Industrial output added 1.5% in November from the previous month, as preliminary data issued by the trade ministry revealed, roughly matching a median market forecast for a 1.6% surge.

Manufacturers polled by the ministry expect output to go up 2% in December and 2.2% in January, an indication that they’re getting more optimistic on the outlook for overseas demand

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: "Thorn" stopped bears

The main trend is bearish, so the last “Wedge” pattern has been broken. However, the price faced a support at 1.0373, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0506 – 1.0524 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0340.

The last “V-Bottom” pattern pushed the price to a resistance at 1.0451. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0498 – 1.0506 in the short term. If we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to get a support on the 34 Moving Average.

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