Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Greenback holds revenues ahead of data

On Monday, the US dollar maintained its weekend revenues against the Japanese yen during Asia trade.

The currency pair USD/JPY stood still, trading at ¥104.12 having reached ¥104.40 earlier in the session. The greenback traded at ¥104.16 late on Friday in New York.

The US dollar had sagged below ¥104.00 during mid-morning trade after positive American retail sales data for September on Friday spurred investors’ hopes for the Fed’s rate surge later this year. However, the American currency later ratcheted up, and hovered above the ¥104.00 level for the rest of the trading session notwithstanding a lack of fresh trading cues.

It feels like the greenback is demonstrating a sign to hit the bottom against the Japanese yen.

That’s a good bet that financial markets are predicting an upturn in the greenback against the Japanese yen, though market participants still require keeping eyes on potential political factors such as American presidential election campaign, which might steeply worsen the risk sentiment.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: "Shooting Star" strengthened bears

There’re a support by the 21 Moving Average and a resistance by the upper “Window”. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline towards the 34 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Dark Cloud”, so bears will have a reason to reach the 34 Moving Average soon.

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Also, there’s a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance once again.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: yen is gathering momentum

USD/JPY experienced some losses in the course of today’s trading session. Now the pair is hovering around the 103.3 level. The recent yen’s appreciation has occurred due to several reasons:

1. On Monday we got disappointing release of US manufacturing data. These numbers could have an important bearing on the Fed’s interest rate decision in December. That’s why the US dollar showed a slack in relation to other currencies.

2. Volatility index posted a slight upsurge as investors become nervous ahead of the third US Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. JPY appreciates in time of crisis and financial instabilities that’s why any additional up-tick in VIX could cause the yen to rise.

3. It’s still unclear whether the Bank of Japan will recourse to additional easing as it had promised earlier or not. For much of 2016 it stayed on the sidelines not changing radically its monetary stance, despite a weak economy and deflation concerns. If BOJ doesn’t change its current interest rates at its next policy meeting scheduled for October 31, the yen could get additional support.

If we look at the technical chart, we will see that USD/JPY stepped into the Ichimoku cloud which means that we may expect a consolidation in the near-time. Any further disappointing US economic data may drag the pair towards the 102.8 mark (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). Alternatively, if investors’ expectations over an imminent Fed rate-hike move reinforce once again, the USD/JPY might test resistance line located at 103.76, against the 50-day MA on the 4H chart.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: on the bearish pressure

Technical levels: support – 103.50, 103.05/10; resistance – 103.80, 104.20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 103.50; SL — 103.30; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: bears broke through triangle

As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a possible triangle in wave (Y) of . The lower side of this pattern has been broken, so bears are likely going to deliver wave 1 in the short term. The main target for the current bearish impulse is -1/8 Murrey Math Line (P=200).

We’ve got a flat pattern in wave [ii], which was ended yesterday. It seems like wave (i) is going to end soon. So, if a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (ii).

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

American stock futures surge ahead of manufacturing PMI

On Monday, Wall Street futures pointed to a slightly higher start ahead of data on activity in the American manufacturing sector as well as appearances from Federal Reserve officials and as traders looked ahead to a busy week in earnings.

The blue-chip Dow futures earned 0.42%, the S&P 500 futures ascended 0.46%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures acquired 0.61%.

In company news, AT&T Inc officially confirmed over the weekend that it agreed to purchase Time Warner Inc for about $85.4 billion in an attempt to create a telecom-media giant. It’s expected to become the greatest acquisition of 2016.

In America, up to 80% of the 116 S&P 500 companies, which had reported as of last Friday had already beat revenue estimates on 8.1% surge, compared to 70% during the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the greenback stood flat against other key currencies, as sustained expectations for a 2016 American rate lift kept backing the greenback.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: consolidation in channel Tenkan-Kijun

Technical levels: support – 104.00/05; resistance – 105.20, 105.70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 104.10; SL — 103.90; TP1 — 105.20; TP2 — 105.70.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A and B; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/USD: bears attacked Senkou Span B

Technical levels: support – 0.7620, 0.7600; resistance – 0.7650, 0.7680.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7710; TP2 — 0.7760.

2. Sell — 0.7620; SL — 0.7640; TP1 — 0.7560; TP2 — 0.7520.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the prices are under the lines; a support of the Cloud.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: "Triple Top" stopped bulls

The last “Pennant” has been broken, so the price meet with a support at 1.2135. The next target is a support at 1.2089. If this level turns out to be broken, the market is going to continue falling down until any reversal pattern arrives.

We’ve got a “Triple Top” on the one-hour chart. Also, there’s a “Pennant”, so the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.2089 – 1.2081. If bears smash this area, we could have a massive decline afterwards.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/AUD reversed from resistance zone

EUR/AUD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.4300
EUR/AUD today reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4450 (former multi-month support level which has been reversing the pair from March) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous strong downward impulse from the middle of September, as can be seen below.

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone stopped the earlier minor correction (ii) – which belongs to the minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate (C)-wave from May. EUR/AUD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.4300.

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