EUR/USD: bears have a good mind to move on because of the "Flag"
The price has faced a resistance on the 34 Moving Average, which pushed the price a little bit down. However, the current bearish movement could be just a local correction, so the market is likely going to achieve the 89 Moving Average afterwards. If a pullback from this line happens later on, there’ll be a chance to see the pair somewhere in the nearest support area at 1.1057 – 1.1032.
As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat in progress and the price is testing the “Triangle’s” upper side. Also, we’ve got a local “Pennant” pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1188 – 1.1222 in the short term. At the same time, if bulls stop here, a downward movement in the direction of a support at 1.1032 becomes possible.
Yesterday the pair AUD/USD updated the two-week highs to the 0.7540. As we noted earlier, there is a strong resistance at this level. Additionally, the market was quite overbought. It's stopped the recovery process. Therefore today we saw a correction to the Tenkan-Sen. This line is holding the further falling of pair, but the correction can be continued up to the Kijun-sen. An then the new buyers may return to the market .
Technical levels: support – 0.7500, 0.7460; resistance – 0.7540.
There’s a “Doji” in the nearest support line, which has been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance during the day, which could reverse a price movement in the direction of the last low. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a confirmed bearish “Engulfing”. The last candles are bearish and there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible an achievement the nearest “Window”.
We’ve got an “Engulfing” at the local low, which has a good conformation. Also, there’s a “Doji” at the local low, so the pair is likely going to get a support on the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens afterward, bears will probably try to return into the market.
USD/JPY & US NFP June release: Will we see it below the 100.00 level?
Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the US NFP reading for June, after the strong decline that had during the May release, where it added only 38,000 jobs. However, for this time, analysts expect a decent recovery towards the 175K number and if the current reading is better than expected, it should be given clearer signs about current situation of overall US economy. Bear in mind that yesterday's ADP jobs data showed a positive number, with 172,000 jobs added, which was above the consensus of 159,000.
The technical picture of USD/JPY at H4 chart ahead the US NFP is still very bearish. A resistance can be found around the 103.24, where the pair can do a breakout to test the bearish trend line projected from the 111.34 high level, of course if the reading for non-farm payrolls is higher than expected. However, if reading is worst than last release or below the 100K mark, it can test the “Brexit” low of 98.97 level.
Next buy targets - 0.9950 and 1.0000
AUD/CAD continues to rise inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which recently broke the resistance level 0.9800. The breakout of this resistance level intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair – accelerating the active impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ from the end of May.
The pair is currently approaching the resistance trendline of the wide weekly down channel from December. If the pair breaks this down channel - AUD/CAD can then be expected to rise further to the next buy targets at resistance levels 0.9950 (top of earlier wave 2) and 1.0000 (which has been reversing the price from March).
GBP/NZD reversed from long-term support level 1.7670
Next buy target - 1.8200 GBP/NZD continues to rise – following the earlier upward reversal from the major long-term support level 1.7670 (which also previously reversed the pair sharply in April of 2013, as can be seen from the weekly GBP/NZD chart below). The upward reversal form this support level occurred well outside of the lower weekly Bollinger Band – which adds to the probability the upward correction will be continued in the nearest time.
With the oversold reading visible on the weekly RSI indicator - GBP/NZD can be expected to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.8200.
AUD/CAD rising inside impulse waves (3) and ③
Next buy targets - 0.9950 and 1.0000
AUD/CAD continues to rise inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which recently broke the resistance level 0.9800. The breakout of this resistance level intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair – accelerating the active impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ from the end of May.
The pair is currently approaching the resistance trendline of the wide weekly down channel from December. If the pair breaks this down channel - AUD/CAD can then be expected to rise further to the next buy targets at resistance levels 0.9950 (top of earlier wave 2) and 1.0000 (which has been reversing the price from March).
There’s a “Harami” on the nearest “Window”. If this pattern confirms, bulls are likely going to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price reached a “Window”, so the 21 Moving Average could bring any bearish pattern afterwards. If so, a downward correction becomes possible.
We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Tower” on the nearest resistance. However, there’re a “Hammer” and an “Engulfing” on the 13 Moving Average, so buyers are likely going to deliver a new low very soon.
Despite of the current upward movement, the main bearish trend is still on the table. So, it’s likely that the middle of the last huge black candle is going to act as a resistance once again. Also, we haven’t got any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible an achievement of the 89 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re two “High Waves”, which both have been confirmed, so bulls are probably going to reach the nearest resistance level.
There’s a “Shooting Star” at the local high, but also we’ve got an “Engulfing” at the last low, which has been confirmed enough. So, the current upward movement is likely going to move on.
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