Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: "Window" could be a reason for deeper upward correction

The last “Window” was finally closed, so we’ve got two bullish patterns such a “Morning Star” and an “Inverted Hammer”, which both have been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a confirmed “Shooting Star”, so when a local correction ends there’ll be an opportunity to see a bearish candle.

The price has been moving up and down under the “Window”. Also, we’ve got a “Harami” and a “Piercing Line” at the local low, so an upward movement becomes possible. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance line.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: bulls knock through the "Window"

We’ve got a “Three Methods” here, so the 21 Moving Average was broken afterwards. There isn’t any reversal pattern, so bulls are likely going to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price broken the nearest “Window”, so buyers will likely try to reach the next resistance line.

The last black candle has a big shadow, which led to the current upward movement. Considering we don’t have any bearish patterns, the market is likely going to achieve the 144 Moving Average during the day.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Swiss franc goes down on SNB intervention to stem revenues

On Friday, the Swiss franc rebounded from nearly one-year peaks against the common currency after the Swiss National Bank officially confirmed it was intervening in the FX market with the only purpose to weaken the national currency.

The currency pair EUR/CHF last traded at 1.0842, showing a 0.6% slump – the greatest dip since July 2015. The sink was caused by the UK’s decision to break up with the European bloc on the Jun 23 referendum, the so-called Brexit.

The traditional safe haven asset, franc, that tends to be sought out by traders in times of financial instability, soared as the financial markets struggled to digest the Brexit’s implications.

Great Britain voted by a substantial margin to leave the European Union. To be exact, the Leave side managed to gain up to 52%, while the opposite side scored 48%.

Northern Ireland, Scotland and London voted mostly for remain, while Wales as well as the UK outside London strongly supported Brexit.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/JPY falling inside impulse waves 3 (3) and ③

Next sell target - 130.00
GBP/JPY has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking through the support zone lying between the support levels 148.00 and 146.00 (both of which were set as the sell targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which then broke the daily down channel from last November intersecting with the support level 140.00 – giving another strong bearish signal.

GBP/JPY is expected to continue to fall inside the active accelerated impulse waves 3 (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the support level 130.00.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: bullish patterns point to further upward movement

We’ve got a “Doji” and a “Harami” at the local low. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, so bulls are likely going to get a resistance on the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the current upward correction is probably going to be continued.

There’s a flat in progress under the last “Window”. Considering bullish patterns at the local low, the market is likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average in the short term.

layari https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/9409 untuk lebih lanjut

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Pound goes up as Brexit worries ease

On Wednesday, the British pound edged up because concerns over Brexit’s impact receded.

The greenback dipped as low as ¥102.25 before it regained some ground to ¥102.39. In New York, late Tuesday, the greenback was worth ¥102.74.

The British pound was soaring against the Japanese yen because worries arose over the compromises, which could be made in the process Great Britain’s departure from the European Union. The sterling sagged to ¥136.40 midday before regaining ground to ¥137.27. Late Tuesday it traded ¥137.09.

The euro weakened from ¥113.76 to ¥113.57, having dropped to ¥113.27 earlier.

Against the evergreen buck, the sterling traded at $1.3409, showing a rise from $1.3343 in New York, late on Tuesday. The euro dared to leap from $1.1067 to $1.1100 late on Tuesday.

Some folks bought the greenback ahead of the gathering, in anticipation of policy steps to back up the economy as well as financial markets. However, they simply unloaded their positions when they saw nothing happening at the meeting.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for June 30

US dollar index kept correcting down as the futures market no longer expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates in 2016. Correction keeps unfolding in many assets, which were sold off on Friday on the Brexit vote news.

EUR/USD is testing levels above the 200-day MA at 1.1100. According to the ECB sources report, the central bank won’t ease policy unless economic data shows that Brexit is affecting the euro area’s economy. Flash European inflation figures are due at 09:00 GMT. The ECB will release accounts of its latest meeting at 11:30 GMT. The pair’s approaching resistance of the formed support line since November in the 1.1200 area, and it won’t be easy for the euro to get much higher. Support is at 1.1055 and 1.0925.

GBP/USD recovered to 1.3520 and the recovery may extend to 1. 3700, support is at 1.3350. Britain will release current account and final GDP for Q1 at 08:30 GMT.

It’s hard for the US dollar to move up versus Japanese yen. USD/JPY faced resistance around 102.85. Next obstacles are at 103.55 and 105.00. Support is at 100.75.

AUD/USD gained a bit more ground as the market’s sentiment improved and commodity prices went up. The upside should be limited by 0.7500. Support is at 0.7330. XAU/USD found support at $1310 and may revisit $1350. Oil prices are supported by the looming strike in Norway and decline in the US inventories.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Which factors influence oil prices?

Oil prices rose for the fifth month in a row. Brent recovered losses it made on the Brexit referendum and rose above resistance line connecting June highs in the $50.40 area.

Bullish factors for oil are: a decline in the US oil inventories (American stockpiles fell by 4.1 million barrels in the most recent week), Venezuela's falling oil production and strong US gasoline demand.

Bearish factors for oil include a ceasefire in Nigeria and receding wildfires in Canada, which should increase supply of the commodity. Nigerian production has already recovered by 200K-300K barrels per day since the middle of June. In addition, although the market players feared the looming strike by Norway's oil sector, even if it happens, the output of the North Sea's biggest producer will fall by only 7%. Moreover, the prospect of Brexit should continue adding uncertainty and limit oil price gains. Note that although most economists forecast higher oil prices in the second half of 2016, the biggest risk to this bullish for oil scenario is weak economic data from the US, Europe and China.

Resistance is still provided by June 9 high at $52.85. Support is at $50.00, $48.50 and $47.00. in the short term we may see more consolidation of the commodity.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for July 1

The market’s risk sentiment will have to survive a test on Friday as China will release official manufacturing & nonmanufacturing PMIs (01:00 GMT). In addition, Caixin manufacturing PMI is due at 01:45 GMT. If the figures disappoint, traders will get another reminder of how uncertain the global economic outlook is. In this case Australian and New Zealand’s dollars will fall, while Japanese yen will strengthen. Good data will support riskier assets, though not by much. Also watch US ISM manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. FOMC member Bullard will speak later on Thursday.

EUR/USD closed above 200-day MA on Wednesday, but, as we expected, the euro’s advance is difficult. Resistance is at 1.1150 ahead of big resistance is in the 1.1200/30 area (former support and now resistance line). Traders sell on the pair’s attempts to get higher. Decline below 1.1070 will open the way to 1.0970/50.

GBP/USD fell as the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney announced that the central bank may have to increase monetary stimulus over summer, though it won't be able to fully offset the negative effects of Brexit. The pound is vulnerable for a decline towards 1.3000. The UK manufacturing PMI is due at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY made very little movement on Thursday. Japan will release inflation data as well as Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing figures early on Friday. Technical levels remain the same: resistance is at 102.85, 103.55 and 105.00. Support is at 102.15 and 100.75.

AUD/USD is limited by 0.7370 on the downside and 0.7470 on the upside. The pair’s awaiting Chinese statistics as well as Australian parliamentary election on Saturday. The news flow makes it not the best time to trade Aussie.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD ahead Construction PMI: Will we see a bearish continuation?

Today at 08:30 GMT will be published the Construction PMI in the UK and another negative reading for June is expected; a pattern that has been repeated for several months already. For this occasion, according to analysts, the indicator could fall from 51.2 to 50.6, which could add pressure on GBP pairs that can not yet manage to make a strong correction after the strong decline recorded after “Brexit” Referendum.

Technical view for GBP/USD at H1 chart is showing a strong demand zone formed around the 1.3150 level (highlighted with a yellow box), and we've been seeing rebounds above it. However, the resistance level of 1.3510 hampers the corrective move, which could be extended towards the 200 SMA on this timeframe. If Construction PMI's reading is below than expected, then it could retest the 1.3150 price territory.