Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD rises following Bank of Canada interest rate cut

The USDCAD pair continues to rise following a reduction in Canadian interest rates. Positive US data may cause the Canadian dollar to lose ground further. Find out more in our analysis dated 25 July 2024.

The Canadian dollar is losing ground against the US dollar for the second consecutive week. The Bank of Canada lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.5%. Consequently, the USDCAD rate has risen further, approaching April’s highs.

This week’s forecast of economic indicators is not favourable for the Canadian dollar. Average weekly earnings are expected to decline further, following decreases in the previous two reports. The decline in earnings could be attributed to rising unemployment, a negative economic factor.

Previous data show a decrease in manufacturing sales to 0.4%. Growth is unlikely in the current period, with a decline appearing more probable.

US initial jobless claims are projected to reach 237,000, lower than the previous figure. This suggests a decrease in unemployment, which could positively impact the US dollar and drive the USDCAD rate higher.

USDCAD technical analysis

The forecast for 25 July 2024 shows that the USDCAD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 1.3740. The market has formed a consolidation range around this level. With an upward breakout, the wave could extend to the local target of 1.3825. Once the price reaches this target, a correction is possible, aiming for 1.3740 (testing from above). Subsequently, a new growth wave could start, targeting 1.3892.

The interest rate cut in Canada and technical analysis for today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a potential uptrend towards 1.3825, which could extend to 1.3892.

Read more - USDCAD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD continues to rise: risk appetite supports buyers

The EURUSD pair is rising. The week begins quietly, with the US Federal Reserve meeting lying ahead. Find out more in our forecast dated 29 July 2024.

The EURUSD pair climbs to 1.0859 on Monday.

The focus will be on the US Federal Reserve meeting this week. The Fed must maintain all the fundamentals for a September interest rate cut.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (core PCE) price index rose by 0.1% m/m in June after stabilising in May. The indicator increased by 2.5% year-over-year compared to the May reading of 2.6%. All this aligned with expectations. However, a further decline would bolster confidence that the Fed will reduce the rate quickly. The Federal Reserve uses this inflation measure to make its monetary decisions.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop around 1.0850 with no clear trend. A rise to 1.0871 remains relevant today, 29 July 2024. Subsequently, the price could fall to 1.0833 and then rise to 1.0874. A price surge to 1.0886 is also possible. This entire growth structure is viewed as a correction of the previous decline wave. Once it is complete, a new decline wave is expected to start, aiming for 1.0820 and potentially continuing to the local targets of 1.0777 and 1.0760.

Although the EURUSD pair maintained its recovery momentum, it is temporary. The EURUSD forecast for today aligns with technical indicators, suggesting a further corrective wave towards (at least) 1.0874. Once completed, the EURUSD rate is expected to decline to the targets of 1.0818, 1.0777, and 1.0760.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCHF is poised for growth; the franc is retreating rapidly

The USDCHF pair has been rising, with this trend persisting for the third consecutive day due to the strength of the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis dated 30 July 2024.

The USDCHF pair has risen for three consecutive days and is now approaching 0.8866.

This movement follows a fairly noticeable decline in the pair in July. The US dollar is clearly rebounding, supported by forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged at today’s meeting. The rate is expected to remain within the 5.25-5.50% range. Investors are primarily anticipating signals regarding the next meeting scheduled for September.

The USDCHF pair is forced to react to external factors. However, Switzerland’s domestic statistics are not robust enough to capture investor attention.

Today, Switzerland will release the report on the KOF leading indicators index for July, which is expected to decrease slightly to 102.6 points from the previous 102.7.

USDCHF technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDCHF pair continues its correction towards 0.8888. Today, 30 July 2024, a rise to 0.8870 is expected, followed by a decline to 0.8833 (testing from above). Subsequently, the USDCHF rate could rise to 0.8888, with the correction potentially extending to 0.8900. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave could begin, aiming for 0.8761 as the wave’s main target.

The USDCHF pair has been rising for the third consecutive day. Technical indicators for today’s USDCHF forecast suggest a further correction towards 0.8888, followed by a decline to 0.8761.

Read more - USDCHF

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD is correcting: investors await signals from the Federal Reserve and the Canadian economy

The USDCAD rate is declining on Wednesday following a protracted rise amid expectations of the Federal Reserve’s decision and falling oil prices. Find out more in our analysis dated 31 July 2024.

The USDCAD rate reached 1.3863 on Monday, marking the pair’s eight-month low. Investors attribute this decline to anticipating the Federal Reserve’s decision and falling oil prices amid concerns about sluggish oil demand from China. The USDCAD rate continues to tumble on 31 July 2024, testing the 1.3840 support level.

The latest CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) data reveals a notable increase in bearish positions on the Canadian currency. Speculators are betting on a further decline in the Canadian dollar to a record level. As of 23 July, net short positions increased to 161.6 thousand contracts from 132.5 thousand a week ago.

Investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but anticipate a signal for an imminent cut. Traders will also focus on Canada’s monthly GDP data, which is due for release today.

Analysts note that prolonged one-way movements in the currency market rarely exceed ten trading sessions. Therefore, investors are likely to begin closing short positions in the Canadian dollar soon, which could potentially push the USDCAD rate down.

USDCAD technical analysis

USDCAD technical analysis for 31 July 2024 shows that the pair has completed a growth wave, reaching 1.3864. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, the rate is expected to decline to 1.3828 before rising to 1.3844 (testing from below). Subsequently, a decline wave might develop, aiming for 1.3793 as the first target of the downtrend.

Investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates and closely monitor Canada’s GDP data. Closing short positions in the Canadian dollar may lead to further declines in the USDCAD rate. Technical indicators for today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a decline wave towards 1.3792.

Read more - USDCAD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD declines further following a correction

The AUDUSD pair is falling despite improved trade balance and increased commodity price index. Find out more in our analysis dated 1 August 2024.

The balance of trade reflects the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports. An increase in exports indicates economic development, while import volumes indicate domestic demand. Positive trade balance readings, above both the expected and previous values, are considered a positive factor for the national currency. Australia’s trade balance has increased to 5.589 billion, highlighting economic development and potentially positively impacting the AUDUSD rate.

The commodity price index shows changes in sales of exported goods. Rising prices increase returns on exports and impact the trade balance. Although the current reading is negative, the index has increased from its previous level, which is generally considered positive for the national currency.

The PMI shows the country’s production activity level over the previous period. A reading above 50.0 indicates economic growth, while below 50.0 signals a decline. The index is currently projected to be 0.3 points higher than the previous reading, which may theoretically be considered positive. However, as the index remains below 50.0, it shows negative results. Although today’s AUDUSD forecast based on fundamental analysis appears favourable for the Australian dollar, it does not prevent the currency pair from declining.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The H4 chart shows that the AUDUSD pair maintains its downward momentum towards the local target of 0.6473. The AUDUSD rate is expected to reach this target today, 1 August 2024. Subsequently, a correction could follow, aiming for 0.6610 (testing from below). Once this correction is complete, another decline wave could develop, targeting 0.6430.

Overall, fundamental data aligns with the AUDUSD indicator-based technical analysis, suggesting that the downtrend might continue to the 0.6473 and 0.6430 levels.

Read more - AUDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

NZDUSD is in positive territory: the market favours risk

The NZDUSD pair has recovered quite well. The market is once again interested in risk. Find out more in our analysis dated 2 August 2024.

The NZDUSD rate has noticeably recovered after its previous decline. The pair is hovering around 0.5953 on Friday.

July’s decline in the NZDUSD rate was relatively stable, driven by weak reports from China, a general exit of investors from carry trade positions in the Japanese yen, and an unfavourable sentiment towards risky assets. The New Zealand dollar is now recovering amid stabilised demand for risky assets and improved market sentiment.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold a meeting on 14 August. Investors believe there is a 36% likelihood of an interest rate cut at this meeting. Expectations for the October meeting are relatively high, with another reduction in borrowing costs anticipated.

NZDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the NZDUSD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.5858, and has corrected towards 0.5977 (testing from below). The NZDUSD forecast for today, 2 August 2024, indicates that a consolidation range is forming at the top of a corrective wave. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline towards 0.5888. If the price breaks below this level, the trend could continue to 0.5802, the first target of the downward wave.

The NZDUSD pair has partially recouped its previous decline. Today’s NZDUSD technical analysis suggests the trend may continue to the 0.5888 and 0.5802 target levels.

Read more - NZDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD: a temporary rally following weak US data

The GBPUSD rate is aggressively declining today after rising on Friday on weak US data. Find out more in our analysis dated 5 August 2024.

The GBPUSD currency pair rose by over 0.5% on Friday due to a weak US employment report. This report heightened concerns about a potential recession and increased expectations for a more significant Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Friday’s data revealed that the US economy added just 114,000 jobs in July, falling short of the projected 175,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, reaching the highest level since 2021, while wage growth slowed more than anticipated.

According to analysts, if investors focus solely on Friday’s US employment data, this may distort the GBPUSD forecast for today. An average reading over the past three months could provide a more accurate picture.

Overall, traders believe that the strengthening of the pound sterling may be temporary. If the released data indicate easing inflation and declining employment in the UK, the Bank of England might ease its monetary policy, which could exert significant pressure on the GBPUSD rate.

GBPUSD technical analysis

Analysis for 5 August 2024 shows that the GBPUSD pair remains in a downtrend, aiming for 1.2700 as the first target. The price is expected to reach this target level today. Subsequently, it could correct towards 1.2870 (testing from below). Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave might begin, targeting 1.2600.

Despite Friday’s strengthening, the pound sterling may weaken due to worsening UK economic indicators and the potential easing of the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Technical indicators suggest that the GBPUSD rate could decline to 1.2700 before correcting towards 1.2870.

Read more - GBPUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD leapt and fell: the currency market reached equilibrium

The EURUSD pair is poised for a correction. The strain level has subsided. Find out more in our analysis dated 6 August 2024.

The EURUSD pair retreated to 1.0951 on Tuesday. The market slightly cooled after the price reached a new multi-week high of 1.1010 yesterday.

Investors had previously positioned themselves against the US dollar in response to Friday’s US employment market statistics and their concerns about a potential recession, with a subsequent weak ISM manufacturing report adding to these fears. In this context, investors expected the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates immediately to prevent a recession. Such actions by the Fed could undermine confidence in the regulator and adversely impact inflation expectations.

The market is gradually stabilising now. The Federal Reserve did not take any significant action or make notable announcements, which reassured the market. In the short term, reduced speculation about an imminent interest rate cut should support the US dollar, pushing the EURUSD rate down.

EURUSD technical analysis

The H4 chart shows that the EURUSD pair has completed a downward wave, reaching 1.1000. The initial phase of this downward wave could develop today, 6 August 2024, aiming for 1.0820. The EURUSD rate declined to 1.0955 and corrected this downward impulse, reaching 1.0985. Subsequently, the market returned to 1.0955, forming a narrow consolidation range around this level. A break below this range is expected, targeting 1.0924 and potentially extending the decline towards 1.0903.

The EURUSD pair corrected towards a local high. Technical indicators in today’s EURUSD forecast suggest that the downward wave could extend to 1.0903, potentially continuing the trend towards 1.0820 and 1.0800 levels.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD declines: the market requires a correction before resuming an uptrend

The USDCAD pair is easing off, with the market adjusting positions. Find out more in our analysis dated 7 August 2024.

The USDCAD rate has fallen for the fourth consecutive trading day, with key movements around the 1.3773 level.

Current movements are part of a corrective phase, though the broader fundamental environment does not favour risk appetite. Investors remain focused on slowing global growth, as reflected in falling oil prices and other commodities.

The Canadian real estate market is also showing warning signs. It is gradually weakening, with increasing indications that consumers are depleting their resources. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in Canada is relatively high, even more so than in the US. However, if the Federal Reserve acts first to reduce borrowing costs, the Bank of Canada is expected to follow suit swiftly.

Fundamentally, the CAD has the potential to weaken. However, this may occur later as investors anticipate emerging threats.

USDCAD technical analysis

Analysis for 7 August 2024 indicates that the USDCAD pair continues its downward momentum towards the initial target of 1.3747. The price is expected to reach this target today, with a correction towards 1.3845. A further decline could develop once the correction is complete, targeting 1.3684 and potentially extending towards 1.3600.

The USDCAD pair is undergoing a correction, but this movement appears to be short-term. Technical indicators in today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a further decline towards 1.3747, followed by a potential correction towards 1.3855.

Read more - USDCAD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

RBA’s hawkish comments support AUDUSD

The AUDUSD rate is rising on Thursday morning; buyers are testing the resistance area. Find out more in our analysis dated 8 August 2024.

The Australian dollar reached a two-week high, rising to 0.6560. Growth was driven by hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock, who highlighted the central bank’s readiness to raise interest rates further to address inflation.

The RBA maintained the interest rate at 4.35%, noting that a tight monetary policy is necessary to bring inflation down to the 2.00-3.00% target range. The regulator’s chief also ruled out the possibility of lowering rates in the next six months, dispelling investor hopes for a relaxation of RBA monetary policy.

The AUDUSD rate was also bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve might more actively lower interest rates in the coming months amid signs of US economic weakness.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The H4 chart shows that the AUDUSD pair has completed a corrective wave, reaching 0.6572. The AUDUSD forecast for today, 8 August 2024, indicates a consolidation range forming around 0.6535, potentially extending to 0.6630. After the price reaches this level, another downward wave is expected to start, targeting the local level of 0.6200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish comments have propelled the AUDUSD pair to a two-week high, and market expectations of a potential interest rate cut in December could support further growth. Technical indicators suggest a possible correction in the AUDUSD rate to 0.6630 today. Subsequently, the trend is expected to extend down to 0.6200.

Read more - AUDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team