Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

AUD rises to a two-week peak, supported by several factors

The AUDUSD pair benefits from the RBA’s tough stance, the US dollar’s weakness, and attacks on the yen.

The Australian dollar has reached a two-week high against the US dollar and is hovering near the 0.6660 mark.

The main support for the Aussie came from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which maintains a hawkish stance on monetary policy. The RBA is expected to lower the interest rate much later than other major central banks.

Thus, the markets missed nearly every chance of an interest rate cut from the RBA in 2024. Overall easing is only projected to happen by the end of 2025, with an average expectation of 43 basis points.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that the regulator discussed the need for an interest rate hike at its June meeting without even considering a rate reduction.

The AUD rate is currently benefitting from short attacks on the JPY and the local weakening of the US dollar rate.

Later this week, the market will focus on Australia’s inflation data.

AUDUSD technical analysis

A consolidation range has formed above the 0.6630 level on the AUDUSD Н4 chart and extended to 0.6677 following an upward breakout. Subsequently, the market returned to the 0.6630 level, which is crucial for the AUDUSD forecast for 25 June 2024. With an upward breakout, the price might rise to 0.6750. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline in the AUDUSD quotes to 0.6565. If this level breaks, the trend might continue towards 0.6424, representing an estimated target.

This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 0.6555. The market has reached a local target of the growth wave at the Envelope’s upper boundary – 0.6710. Following this, the price declined to its lower boundary at 0.6577 as part of a correction. Today, the market continues to develop a consolidation range around the Envelope’s central line at 0.6630. With a downward breakout, a decline wave could follow, targeting the Envelope’s lower boundary at 0.6565. An upward breakout might enable a growth wave, aiming for its upper boundary at 0.6750.

Read more - AUDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY falling due to fundamental discrepancies in Fed and BoJ policies

The USDJPY rate declined on Thursday, 27 June 2024, unable to hold at the 38-year high of 160.85 reached on Wednesday.

The Japanese authorities expressed concerns about the sharp decline in the yen. The country’s major financial policymaker, Masato Kanda, said they were closely watching the situation and were ready to act. Renowned currency analyst Masafumi Yamamoto warns that the USDJPY rate may rise to 162.00 if the Japanese authorities do not take prompt action to support the national currency.

However, traders are unsure whether the Japanese authorities’ verbal or actual actions can halt the yen’s decline. The yen’s weakness is attributed to investor uncertainty about the pace of Fed interest rate cuts. The opinion is that if the BoJ slightly adjusts its zero-rate policy at the 30-31 July meeting, this will unlikely significantly impact the yen rate.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the USDJPY H4 chart, the market received support at 160.00. Today, 27 June 2024, a rise to 161.30 is possible, followed by a correction to 160.00 (testing from above). Subsequently, the price could rise to 162.00, potentially continuing the uptrend to 163.30. Once this wave is complete, a decline might start, aiming for 158.90 as the first target.

The Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a 158.90 pivot point technically confirm this USDJPY scenario. The market has received support at the Envelope’s central line and continues growth to its upper boundary. A decline wave is expected from the 161.30 level to the Envelope’s centre at 160.00. Subsequently, a consolidation range could form around this level. With an upward breakout, the growth wave might expand to 163.30. A decline wave aiming for the Envelope’s lower boundary is expected only after the price reaches this level.

Read more - USDJPY

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

NZDUSD declines again: the primary reason is the strong US dollar

The NZDUSD pair is falling, facing strong pressure from the US dollar and reaching mid-May lows.

The New Zealand dollar-to-US dollar rate continues to decline with regular intervals for consolidation, but the overall trend is steady and quick. The NZDUSD pair is falling to 0.6059.

The current values are the lowest since mid-May.

The market is preparing for the evening’s US releases. In particular, it is interested in core PCE data, one of the most significant inflation reports for the Federal Reserve. The figures may provide insight into the Fed’s future actions on interest rates, which is currently offering strong support for the USD. As for news from New Zealand, it remains relatively neutral. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s stance remains unchanged: it will maintain a stable monetary policy at least until mid-2025 due to ongoing inflation growth risks.

However, investors believe that the RBNZ will lower interest rates in November.

Although the NZD rate declined by 1.2% in June, the Kiwi dollar gained 1.5% over the quarter.

NZDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, NZDUSD has completed the first decline wave towards 0.6068 and corrected to 0.6108. Subsequently, the price is expected to fall to the local target of 0.6038. A consolidation range might form around 0.6073, a crucial level for the NZDUSD forecast for 28 June 2024. A downward breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline in the NZDUSD quotes to 0.6038, potentially continuing to 0.5995, the estimated target.

The Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 0.6070 technically confirm this scenario. The market has reached the first target of the decline wave near the Envelope’s lower boundary at 0.6068 and then undergone a correction towards its centre at 0.6108. Today, the market is under pressure to fall to 0.6038. If this level breaks, the price might decline to the Envelope’s lower boundary at 0.5995.

Read more - NZDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR has risen: all eyes on French policy

The EURUSD pair partially recovered its previous decline on Monday. The far-right party was not strong enough in the first round of the French election, which was positive for the market.

EURUSD starts the week rising. The EURUSD pair increased to 1.0753 and returned to levels seen on 13 May.

Investors are now primarily focused on data from the first round of the French snap election. Although the far-right was again winning, it did not appear as strong as before, favouring observers and boosting the EUR rate.

Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) won the first round of the parliamentary election on Sunday. However, the party secured fewer votes than expected.

The euro has declined since France’s President Emmanuel Macron called snap elections.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is currently in a consolidation phase around the 1.0714 level. This level is considered crucial for the current decline wave in the EURUSD pair. Today, 1 July 2024, a corrective phase is expected, targeting 1.0760. Subsequently, a decline wave might start, aiming for 1.0600 and potentially continuing to the local target of 1.0573. The Elliott Wave structure with the centre at 1.0714 technically confirms this scenario.

From the fundamental analysis perspective, the EURUSD pair is supported. Upcoming economic reports will be crucial for determining short-term movements in the EURUSD rate. Technical indicators point to a further decline to the 1.0600 and 1.0573 targets.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD is falling: the market does not believe in interest rate hikes

The Australian dollar is declining for the second consecutive day. The AUDUSD pair is returning to fluctuations within the traded range.

The AUDUSD pair declines to 0.6638 on Tuesday, retreating from a two-week high despite the recent hints from the Reserve Bank of Australia about a potential interest rate increase.

According to the RBA’s June meeting minutes, monetary policymakers prefer to remain vigilant about inflation risks. They believe that significant price rises may necessitate a noticeable rate hike. However, the RBA is confident it can bring inflation down to the 2% target while maintaining economic and employment stability.

Investors estimate a one-in-three chance of an RBA interest rate hike at its August meeting.

On a global level, the Aussie is under pressure from the US dollar due to increased treasury bond yields.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair has formed a consolidation range above 0.6630 and, after breaking above it, extended the range to 0.6677. Subsequently, the quotes returned to the 0.6633 level, crucial for the AUDUSD forecast for 2 July 2024. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline in the AUDUSD rate to 0.6555, representing the estimated target.

The Aussie is under pressure from the USD due to increased treasury bond yields. The AUDUSD technical analysis points to a further correction towards 0.6555.

Read more - AUDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD has risen significantly, and statistics have nothing to do with it

Risk appetite is pushing up the EURUSD pair. US statistics came out mixed, providing no clear signals.

The EURUSD pair has risen markedly over the last two sessions and stabilised at 1.0785 on Thursday.

Yesterday, the market had a plethora of macro statistics to consider, which have been factored into prices overall. The first signals about the state of the employment market have been received and analysed: the ADP number of jobs in the US private sector increased by 150,000 in June compared to the forecasted 163,000 and the previous 152,000, providing a neutral signal. Let us see what Friday’s NFP release will bring.

The services PMI appears uneven. The official PMI report showed a decrease to 48.8 points in June from 53.8 points in May, a warning signal. At the same time, Markit observations reflected an increase to 55.3 in June from the previous 54.8. Readings over 50.0 points indicate improvement and expansion.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD has corrected to 1.0815. Today, 4 July 2024, a consolidation range could form below this level. With a downward breakout of the range, a new decline wave might start, aiming for 1.0730, a crucial level for this wave. Once the price reaches this level, it could correct to 1.0777 (testing from below). Subsequently, the decline structure might develop, targeting 1.0677 and potentially continuing to 1.0630.

Risk appetite supports the EUR position. Technical indicators for today’s EURUSD forecast point to a further decline to the 1.0680, 1.0600, and 1.0555 targets.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

NZD has reached new weekly highs, driven by the weak US dollar

The NZDUSD pair has risen for the fourth consecutive day, driven by the US dollar's weakness.

The NZDUSD pair rises for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.6116.

The New Zealand dollar gains ground due to the US dollar's weakness. The USD previously declined after the release of the ADP employment data in the US private sector and amid decreasing business activity in the services sector. These factors strengthened the market view that the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs by the end of 2024. The US dollar fell, giving other currencies a chance to rise.

At its previous meeting, the Federal Reserve noted an inflation shift in the right direction but believed prices were not moving fast enough to revise interest rates.

Some Federal Reserve monetary policymakers stress the importance of being patient and consistent when making interest rate decisions. Others believe that it is time to raise rates as inflation is rising.

NZDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, NZDUSD has corrected towards 0.6128. The market is forming a consolidation range around 0.6115, which could extend up to 0.6134 today, 5 July 2024. Once the price reaches this level, a new decline wave is expected to start, aiming for 0.6090. Breaking above this level will open the potential for a decline to 0.6040, potentially continuing to 0.6023, the estimated target.

The New Zealand dollar is strengthening, supported by the weakness of the US currency. The NZDUSD technical analysis suggests the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new decline wave to the 0.6090 and 0.6040 targets.

Read more - NZDUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD remains elevated but is not too high

The EURUSD pair continues its ascent. However, the euro faces risks due to the French political situation.

The EURUSD pair appears relatively expensive, hovering at 1.0828 on Monday.

Although US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 191,000, the data fell short of May readings. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.4%. As expected, average hourly earnings in June expanded by 0.3% m/m following a 0.4% increase in May.

The market viewed the statistical data as soft, heightening expectations of a September US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which pressured the USD position.

However, the euro also has reservations. The French election results created uncertainty about the country’s financial prospects. The left-wing alliance may have received an unexpected number of votes, creating challenging conditions for forming the French parliament.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD received support at 1.0806. A consolidation range has practically formed around this level, which is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 8 July 2024. Breaking above the range will open the potential for a growth wave to the local target of 1.0900. After reaching this target, the price is expected to fall to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could develop, aiming for 1.0944

The EURUSD pair remains elevated, but risks are mounting. Technical indicators point to a potential further correction to the 1.0840, 1.0900, and 1.0944 targets.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rise ahead of the Federal Reserve chair’s speech

Gold prices are rising on Tuesday, 9 July 2024, partially recouping Monday’s losses. The 2,350 level serves as strong support.

Today, investors are focused on the upcoming report by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in the US Congress. Last week’s economic data showed weakness in the US employment market, with the unemployment rate reaching the highest level in the past 2.5 years and wage growth slowing to a three-year low. These indicators have significantly increased expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Markets currently estimate the likelihood of a September interest rate reduction at 77%, with another cut following in December. Powell’s speeches to the Senate on Tuesday and the House of Representatives on Wednesday will likely provide investors with insights into the Federal Reserve’s further actions. Additionally, crucial inflation data is due Thursday, which may impact markets. Any hint of rising rate cut expectations may boost gold prices again.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The price of gold remains above the upper boundary of a triangle pattern, with the target for the pattern completion at 2,450 USD. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 9 July 2024, suggests bullish momentum to 2,393. A rebound from the support level will provide an additional signal for a price rise. It is worth noting that the previous testing of this line pushed the price up by over 3%. A price decline below the 2,340 level can invalidate the bullish scenario. Such movement will indicate a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, followed by a further fall to 2,315.

Gold prices are climbing, driven by the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and reinforced by the weak US employment market data. The XAUUSD technical analysis points to bullish momentum, with the first target at 2,393.

Read more - XAUUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: Nagel’s and Powell’s speeches may give hope for the euro’s strengthening

The EURUSD pair continues strengthening ahead of officials’ speeches and amid the rising US national debt.

Wednesday, 10 July 2024, is rich in speeches from the central bank and Fed’s chiefs and officials. A speech by the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank (concurrently a member of the ECB Governing Council) may shed light on the future EU monetary policy and help strengthen the euro against the US dollar. A subsequent speech by Deutsche Bundesbank official Sabine Mauderer may bolster the words of the Deutsche Bundesbank president.

Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are due after the US trading session opens, potentially adding to the market volatility and providing insight into the future of US interest rates. The increasing US national debt also works against the US dollar.

Although any market movements can be expected in this environment, the general situation does not favour the US currency at this stage. The euro is more likely to strengthen than the US dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop above 1.0806. This level is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 10 July 2024, with the market receiving support at this level. A rise to 1.0844 is expected. If this level breaks, the price could climb to the local target of 1.0888. After reaching this target, the price is expected to decline to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could follow, aiming for 1.0900.

The Federal Reserve chair’s speech, rising US national debt, and technical indicators suggest a potential correction towards the 1.0888 and 1.0900 targets.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team