AUD/JPY : Daily Signal And Analysis from Instaforex

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Japan Retail Sales Growth Moderated in July Amid Wavering Consumption

Growth in Japan's retail sales increased in July, but less than initially expected after an earlier reading for household consumption for the period has dropped into a sudden contraction.

Retail sales climbed 1.9 percent year on year in July to ¥12.2 trillion, figures from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed. It is lower from a pace of 2.1 percent in June.

Combined with wholesale sales growth of 3.1 percent, the recent retail figure brought overall commercial sales in the country to just short of ¥38 trillion in July, higher by 2.7 percent year-on-year but weakening further from a high of 4.9 percent back in May.

Department store sales dropped into contraction, lower by 2.5 percent year-on-year. However, supermarket sales accelerated from zero growth in June to an increase of 1.1 per cent in July, while convenience store sales picked up 0.2 percentage points to notch a rise of 3.1 percent for the period.

The sales figures took place despite suddenly negative readings on consumer spending in July, lower by 0.2 per cent year-on-year for households with two or more members. This suggests that more people in work is not leading to higher spending at shops.

 

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AUD/JPY profit target reached once again, prepare to sell

The price has reached our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 87.74 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) for a push down to at least 86.48 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing resistance at 95% where we expect a corresponding drop similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Sell below 87.74. Stop loss is at 88.06. Take profit is at 86.48.

 

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AUD/JPY gapped down to our profit target. Prepare to buy on major support

The price has gapped down to our profit target perfectly. We prepare to buy above major support at 87.00 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a bounce up to at least 87.78 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, price gap).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 3.9% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 87.00. Stop loss is at 86.52. Take profit is at 87.78.

 

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Australia's Central Bank Stands Pat on Key Interest Rate

The Reserve Bank of Australia ruled to hold interest rates steady, continuing its rate hike pause as lending measures cool the hot prices in housing markets and as the prospect of a rise in business investment surface.

In a widely expected decision, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent. The central bank has kept rates unchanged since August 2016, and has avoided dropping hints that it will withdraw the stimulus it has in place, contrary to the trend seen among its peers, due persistent concerns about wage wages and soft inflation.

Governor Philip Lowe said that the recent data has been in line with RBA's expectation that the Australian economy's growth will gradually gain momentum over the coming year.

He added that the outlook for non-mining investment has recently improved and business conditions are reported to be at a high level. After the central bank's decision, the currency slightly fell.

The central bank gave little sign of a hawkish tone after a rafter of stronger economic data. However, the head of RBA himself stated last month that it was justifiable for markets to expect that the next movement in rates will be a long way off in the future.

 

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for September 8, 2017

AUD/JPY is currently quite corrective and volatile in nature which formed a rising wedge on the intraday charts. The mixed economic reports from Japan and Australia made the market sentiment quite confused recently which still exists in the market by now. Today, Japan's Final GDP report was published which showed a decrease to 0.6% from the previous value of 1.0% which was expected to be at 0.7%, Bank Lending also declined to 3.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 3.3%, Current Account report showed positive changes with a rise to 2.03T from the previous figure of 1.52T which was expected to be at 1.65T, Final GDP Price Index was published unchanged as expected at -0.4%, and Economy Watchers Sentiment was also published unchanged at 49.7 which was expected to decrease to 49.5. On the other hand, Australia's Home Loans report showed an increase to 2.9% from the previous value of 1.2% which was expected to decrease to 1.0% and RBA Governor Lowe is currently speaking about short term interest rates and future monetary policies which is expected to be quite neutral in nature. To sum up, Japan's economic reports were mostly very negative in nature which capped the growth of the currency against AUD today. However, AUD could not dominate JPY with its positive economic reports today which does signal that JPY is indeed quite strong than AUD in the market with better sentiment. AUD should come up with positive high impact economic reports in the coming days to dominate the JPY growth.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has been very corrective and volatile in nature recently which formed a rising wedge along the way. The price is currently struggling to break over the horizontal resistance level of 87.50 but in the process, some upward fake moves have been observed as well. Currently we will consider sell positions after the price breaks below 86.10-30 support area with a daily close. As the price remains below 88.00 level, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

 

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AUD/JPY bouncing nicely above support, remain bullish

The price is bouncing nicely above major support at 86.92 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and we expect a strong bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 87.61 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension).

RSI (34) is seeing strong ascending support holding our bullish momentum.

Buy above 86.92. Stop loss is at 86.52. Take profit is at 87.61.

 

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AUD/JPY approaching strong support, prepare to buy

Price is approaching major support at 87.91 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) and we expect a strong bounce from this level to push price up to at least 88.56 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) still remains above our ascending support which is holding up our bullish momentum really nicely. Only a break of that ascending support line would trigger a bearish change in momentum.

Buy above 87.91. Stop loss at 87.45. Take profit at 88.56.

 

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Overview of AUD / JPY with the forecast for the current day

Since July of last year, an upward wave is forming on the chart of the AUD/JPY cross currency pair. A correction was structured in a larger-scale wave model. The price entered the pre-completion zone within the limits of the resistance level where a large time frame has passed. The probability of a change in the rate and the beginning of the formation of a downward wave in the near future is very high.

In the first half of the day, traders should expect flat price fluctuations while the pressure on the resistance zone is not ruled out. A breakout in the upper boundary of the zone is unlikely. Moreover, the formation of a reversal and the beginning of a decline are expected.

Boundaries of resistance zones:

- 89.20 / 50

Boundaries of support zones:

- 88.50 / 20

Explanations to the figures: For simplified wave analysis, a simple waveform is used that combines 3 parts namely A, B, and C. All types of correction are created and most of the impulses can be found in these waves. Every time frame is considered and the last incomplete wave is analyzed. The areas marked on the graphs indicate the probability of a change in the direction of motion has significantly increased as calculated in the areas. Arrows indicate the wave counting following the technique used by the author. A solid background of the arrows signifying the structure has been formed while the dotted one means the expected wave motion.

 

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AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

Price touched our buying area and shot up perfectly to our profit target. We prepare to sell below 89.25 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a push down to at least 87.91 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support)

RSI (34) sees horizontal resistance at 64% and we expect a reaction off this level to push price down correspondingly.

Sell below 89.25. Stop loss at 89.67. Take profit at 87.91.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

AUD / JPY review with the current day forecast

The rising wave of the Australian dollar's cross to the Japanese yen is at the peak of its formation. In recent weeks, the pair's quotes are in the framework of the reversal zone. An analysis of the structure of the last 3-month section of the chart shows the formation of a downward wave since July 27. The price reduction started last week gave the start to the final part of the wave (C). By the beginning of the current day, an intermediate level of support has been reached at the price, which caused a flat stop.

Today, at the nearest trading session, a short-term recovery is not ruled out. The swing of the upstroke is probably no further than the resistance zone. Further, the formation of a reversal and the beginning of a second decline are expected. The estimated level of completion of the entire wave is within the support zone.

The boundaries of the resistance zones:

- 88.90 / 89.20

The boundaries of the support zones:

- 87.90 / 60