AUD/JPY : Daily Signal And Analysis from Instaforex

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Weekly review of AUD / JPY from April 3 on simplified wave analysis

Earlier this year, the chart of AUD/JPY cross pair showed a steady decline in its price. The pattern of the graph was the final part of the correction of a larger scale. The preliminary calculation of its potential indicates the possible continuation of the current rate decline up to the minimum extremes of June 2016.

The quotes of the pair in the recent weeks are in the intermediate support zone. Reaching this level triggered a sideways rollback which does not have a reversal potential.

In the coming days, the ascending part of the trend must complete its formation. The upper limit of the flat is the formed resistance. By the end of the week, a change in direction is expected along with a return to the prevailing direction.

Boundaries of resistance zones: - 82.20 / 82.70

Boundaries of support zones: - 80.40 / 79.90

 
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AUD/JPY Bounced Nicely Off Its Support, Remain Bullish

The price bounced off its support at 81.975 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) where we expect to see a further rise to its next resistance at 82.590 (50% Fibonacci retracement, multiple swings high resistance).

Stochastic (34, 5, 3) made a corresponding bounce off its support at 5.7% where it still has a lot of upside potential.

Buy above 81.975. Stop loss at 81.670. Take profit at 82.590.

 

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for April 13, 2018

AUD/JPY is quite impulsive with the bullish gains after the break above 82.00 price area recently. Recently published mixed economic reports of JPY lead the price to become more impulsive with the AUD gains whereas further bullish pressure is expected in the coming days. Recently JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke about the monetary policies and economic development which failed to impress the market participants with a neutral point of view. On the other hand, despite having mixed economic reports as well AUD gained good momentum over JPY which does indicate the severe weakness of JPY in the process. Today AUD RBA Financial Stability Review report was published with a hawkish result which leads AUD to become more impulsive with its bullish gains in the process. As of the current scenario, AUD is expected to continue the gains further in the coming days whereas JPY may struggle further for the coming weeks.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA proceeding impulsively towards 84.50 price area from where if it is broken with a daily close, further bullish pressure may be observed with a target towards 87.50-89.00 price area. As the price remains above 80.00 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.


 

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AUD/JPY Broke Out Of Its Ascending Support, Remain Bearish


AUD/JPY broke out of its ascending support where we look to sell on strength at 83.311 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). We expect prices to push down all the way to its support at 82.652.

RSI (89) shows a corresponding break out where we expect to see a similar drop.

Sell below 83.311. Stop loss at 83.659. Take profit at 82.652.

 

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for April 20, 2018

AUD/JPY recently gained bearish momentum in the middle of the price range of 82.00 to 84.50 from where the price is currently expected to have bearish pressure in the nearest days. Recently, AUD Employment Change report was published with an increase to 4.9k from the previous negative figure of -6.3k but it failed to meet the expectation of 20.3k and Unemployment Rate was also published unchanged at 5.5%. As AUD missed the expectation of a significant increase in Employment Change, this had a great impact on the gains of AUD against JPY, leading to impulsive bearish pressure with a daily close yesterday.

Today, Japan's National Core CPI report was published with a slight decrease to 0.9% as expected from the previous value of 1.0% and Tertiary Industry Activity also rose to 0.0% from the previous figure of -0.4% but failed to meet the expectation of 0.1%. Due to mixed readings, JPY was unable to provide much pressure over AUD today which lead to certain indecision in the pair currently.

As for the current scenario, JPY is expected to sustain its bearish gains over AUD whereas certain correction and volatility may be observed along the way. Until AUD comes up with a better economic report to counter the bearish pressure, JPY is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is currently holding the price as support in the mid-range between 82.00 to 84.50 area. The impulsive bearish pressure had a greater impact on the recent price action where bears have engulfed the previous consolidation with a daily close yesterday. As the price remains below 84.50 with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected.

 

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for May 18, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which led the price to reside above 83.00 area with a daily close. AUD gained momentum over JPY despite mixed economic reports published recently whereas JPY is under pressure in light of the Bank of Japan's long-term plan.

Recently, Australia's Employment Change report was published with a significant increase to 22.6k from the previous negative figure of -0.7k which was expected to be at 19.8k and the Unemployment Rate edged up to 5.6% from the previous value of 5.5%. The mixed readings worked as a fuel to the gains of AUD recently which is expected to keep momentum in the coming days.

On the other hand, today Japan's National Core CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.9% which was expected to be at 0.8%. As for the current scenario, the downbeat economic report from Japan helped AUD to gain more momentum today whereas recent mixed economic reports on Australia's Employment was quite enough to sustain the bullish momentum in the pair. To sum up, AUD is expected to gain further over JPY in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well as 83.00 area from where the price is expected to push higher towards 84.50 in the coming days from where if JPY manages to push lower then certain bearish pressure may be observed in the future. As the price remains above 82.00 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

 

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for May 31, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently, after bouncing off the 80.50-81.50 support area with a daily close. After being in a volatile and corrective structure with bearish squeeze along the way, certain bullish engulfing pattern does indicate the upcoming strong bullish pressure in the market.

Despite the worse economic reports on AUD Building Approvals published recently, certain bullish pressure has been quite significant and surprising for the market participants. Today, AUD Private Capital Expenditure report was published with an increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, but failed to meet the expectation of 0.8% and Private Sector Credit was published with a decrease to 0.4%, as expected, from the previous value of 0.5%.

On the other hand, today, JPY Prelim Industrial Production report was published with a decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 1.4% which was expected to increase to 1.5% and Housing Starts report showed a significant increase to 0.3% from the previous negative value of -8.3% which was expected to increase in deficit to -8.8%.

As of the current scenario, AUD has been quite positive with the economic reports in comparison to JPY today which is expected to lead to further bullish gains in the coming days. Though JPY still has the market sentiment on its favor, but recent bullish pressure is expected to sustain the price pushing higher in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the 81.50 area with dynamic level of 20 EMA holding the price as resistance. After the bearish divergence formed recently which pushed the price lower in an impulsive manner, current bullish bias is expected to push the price higher towards the 83.50-84.00 area in the coming days. As the price remains above the 80.50 area, further bullish pressure is expected in this pair.

 

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for February 14, 2019

AUD/JPY is currently quite impulsive with the recent bullish pressure after bouncing off the 78.50 area with a daily close. AUD is backed by positive economic reports despite the pressure from the US-China trade talks. AUD strength is expected to lead to further bullish pressure in the coming days.

Recently, the US-China trade tensions have fueled an economic slowdown in Australia which is mirrored in the weakest GDP data in last 10 years. Nevertheless, AUD found support from upbeat export data amid China's official trade balance figures.

Today MI Inflation Expectation also increased to 3.7% from the previous value of 3.5%. Moreover, recently Westpac Consumer Sentiment showed significant growth to 4.3% from the previous value of -4.7%.

Tomorrow RBA Governor Kent is going to speak about the key interest rate decisions which is expected to unchanged and monetary policy which may have certain affects from the global trade tensions.

In case the US and China eventually settle up a trade deal, it is expected to lead to further bullish pressure in the pair, enabling AUD to gain momentum against JPY.

On the JPY side, Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda recently stated that it was his responsibility to achieve the BOJ's 2% inflation target by pursuing its stimulus policy and he would make sure to achieve it in the medium term. Kuroda is currently assessing the central bank's stimulus policy so that it would not cause side effects. Today Japan's Prelim GDP report was published with an increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.6% which failed to meet the expected value of 0.4% and Prelim GDP Price Index was published unchanged at -0.3% which was expected to decrease to -0.4%.

Meanwhile, JPY has been flat amid the recently published economic reports whereas AUD is firmer at present. Until optimism about the US-China trade talks boosts AUD growth in the coming days, AUD is expected to dominate JPY for a while.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above 78.50 area with a retest as well.

The bullish pressure is going to push the price higher towards 80.00 and later towards 82.50 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 78.50 area with a daily close, the bullish pressure is expected to continue pushing higher in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 75.50, 77.50, 78.50

RESISTANCE: 80.00, 82.50

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE


 

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AUD/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

AUD/JPY is approaching its resistance at 78.24 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 78.59 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its resistance at 98% where a corresponding reversal is anticipated.

AUD/JPY is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 79.24. Stop loss at 79.81. Take profit at 78.59.

 
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