AUD/JPY : Daily Signal And Analysis from Instaforex

[InstaForexRebat]

AUD/JPY right on resistance, remain bearish for a further drop

We remain bearish looking to sell below 88.15 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a further drop towards 87.52 support (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees long term descending resistance holding price momentum down which helps us keep our bearish bias.

Sell below 88.15. Stop loss is at 88.60. Take profit is at 87.52.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

AUD/JPY approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

We prepare to sell below major resistance at 89.31 (Multiple Fibonacci extensions, swing high resistance) for a push down to at least 88.15 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 97% where we expect a reaction from soon.

Correlation analysis: AUD/JPY looks like it has a little bit of a further upside before a drop, and this is in line with what we're expecting on USDJPY's recent rally.

Sell below 89.31. Stop loss is at 89.66. Take profit is at 88.15.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

AUD/JPY dropping nicely, remain bearish for a further drop

The price has dropped nicely from yesterday and we remain bearish below 88.92 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, Elliott wave theory, bearish divergence) for a drop towards 88.17 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% where we expect a reaction from soon.

We can also see bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY expecting drops.

Sell below 88.92. Stop loss is at 89.35. Take profit is at 88.17.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

Fundamental analysis of AUD/JPY for July 28, 2017

AUD/JPY has been very bullish after the break above the resistance level of 87.50. After some downbeat economic reports and the RBA statement, AUD is currently getting weaker against JPY.

Today Australia's PPI report was published with an unchanged value at 0.5% which was expected to increase to 0.6% which did not quite help the currency to gain some momentum against JPY. On the other hand, Japan posted the Household Spending report with a positive figure at 2.3% from the previous negative figure at -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.6%. Besides, the National Core CPI was unchanged at 0.4% as expected while the Tokyo Core CPI showed some growth to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.0%.

The index was expected to be at 0.1%. Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate decreased to 2.8% from previous value of 3.1% which was expected to be at 3.0%. The Retail Sales report was published with an unchanged value of 2.1% which was expected to rise to 2.3%. Along with all these economic reports, the BOJ Summary of Opinions event was held where the outcome was quite hawkish for JPY which is expected to help JPY to gain some momentum in the coming days.

To sum up, as of the recent economic reports, AUD is currently expected to show some more weakness in the coming days before bouncing off again with an impulsive bullish momentum against JPY.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently expected to show some bearish movement towards 87.50 support level before bouncing off again with a bullish move towards 90.50 resistance level. The price is currently residing in a corrective structure and it is quite volatile as well which signals some retracement before launching upward again. As the price remains above 87.50 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

AUD/JPY remains bearish for a further drop

Price has broken a really nice ascending support-turned-resistance line triggering a bearish move. We prepare to sell below 88.83 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 87.65 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% and we also see a bearish exit signalling that a change in momentum has occurred.

Correlation analysis: we are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY and USD/JPY to drop.

Sell below 88.83. Stop loss at 89.35. Take profit at 87.65.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

Japan Consumer Inflation Climbed in June

Core consumer inflation in Japan climbed for a sixth consecutive month in June. However, it showed little sign of gaining upward momentum. The core consumer price index, which strips out the cost of fresh food, increased 0.4 percent year on year in June, unchanged from the month earlier, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Headline CPI was up 0.4 percent year on year.

Food prices climbed 0.8 percent in June, as in May, while the cost of utilities increased 3.5 percent. However, CPI which does not include fresh food and energy prices marked a third month in a row of zero year-on-year change.

Data on household expenditures revealed overall consumer spending climbed 2.3 percent year on year in June, recovering from a fall of 0.1 percent in May and fell short of expectations of a 0.6 percent increase. The Bank of Japan trimmed its inflation forecast for the year to March 2018 from 1.4 percent to 1.1 percent, while cutting its forecast for the year to March 2019 from 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

AUD/JPY dropping perfectly from our selling area, remain bearish for a further drop

Price has reached our selling area and dropped perfectly from there towards our profit target. We remain bearish looking to sell below 88.83 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 87.65 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing a major resistance below 95% and we also see a bearish exit, signalling that a change in momentum has occurred. It still has some downside potential that goes in line with the drop we are expecting on price.

Correlation analysis: we are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY and USD/JPY expecting drops.

Sell below 88.83. Stop loss at 89.35. Take profit at 87.65.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

AUD/JPY approaching profit target, remain bearish

The price has continued to drop nicely towards our profit target. We remain bearish looking to sell below 88.34 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance) for a further push down to at least 87.65 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing intermediate resistance below 45% where we expect a further drop from.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY expecting drops.

Sell below 88.34. Stop loss is at 88.70. Take profit is at 87.65.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

AUD/JPY profit target reached once again, turn bearish for a short term correction

The price has shot up and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell below 88.31 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 87.71 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing intermediate resistance below 85% where we expect a drop from.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing intermediate JPY strength with corrections expected on AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Sell below 88.31. Stop loss is at 88.58. Take profit is at 87.71.

 

[InstaForexRebat]

Fundamental Analysis of AUDJPY for August 3, 2017

AUD has been quite weak recently in comparison to JPY, which led to a drastic fall to 87.50 after an impulsive breakout. This week the RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statement were revealed, where the cash rate was announced to be unchanged at 1.50, which affected the growth of the currency against JPY recently.

As the global economic boom is knocking at the door, most of the global economies are looking forward to a rate hike where Australia seems to be lagging showing no intention to have a rate hike in the recent future. Today Australia's Trade Balance report was published with a worse figure at 0.86B from the previous figure of 2.02B, which was expected to be at 1.78B at least. The weak report made AUD fall drastically today against the JPY.

Trade Balance is the export demand and currency demand, which is directly related to each other; the worst figure showed lower exports and higher imports, which is bad for the economy. On the other hand, JPY has been quite stable with its recent economic reports showing unchanged and mixed economic reports in comparison to AUD.

Tomorrow, Average Cash Earning report is going to be published. It is expected to show a decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.6%, but any positive change is expected to help JPY gain ground against AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of support level 87.50 and dynamic level support of 20 EMA as well. The trend is still bullish and a daily close above 87.50 will provide confirmation for further bullish move in this pair with a target towards the 90.50 resistance level. If the price remains above the 86.00 level, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.