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June-06, 2022, Daily Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The EUR/GBP slashes Friday’s gains on Monday and aims towards the 0.8500 mark after reaching a daily high near 0.8590s, though retracing on a buoyant market mood as global equities record gains. At the time of writing, the EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8530, losing 0.47%.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/GBP remains upward biased, despite Monday’s retracement. However, the cross-currency would face solid resistance at around 0.8600, a level last traded on May 12, which sparked a correction towards highs of 0.8390s, before resuming the uptrend towards 0.8590s. EUR/GBP traders need to be aware that volatility shrank, and the EUR/GBP formed a bullish flag, which would open the door for further gains. Nevertheless, the cross would consolidate in the 0.8500-0.8600 area before aiming toward fresh YTD highs above 0.8700.

EUR/USD

On the other hand, In the major of EUR/USD, the pair still holds some bullish potential, largely rooted from last week’s bounce of support at prior resistance. This is taken from a zone running from 1.0593-1.0638 and that area caught a bounce on Wednesday that held into the end of the week. That bounce found lower-high resistance in the same zone that caught the prior high, plotted from around 1.0767-1.0787.

While this could carry some bullish potential, there may be more amenable areas for that elsewhere which I’ll look at after our next chart. But, on this setup, the area of focus is that support zone running from 1.0593-1.0638. If sellers can punch through that, then the door re-opens for bearish scenarios in the pair, looking for a return to the 1.0500 psychological level.

US Dollar​

The dollar advanced modestly on Monday as a boost in risk appetite sent U.S. equities higher and kept gains on the safe haven in check ahead of a key reading on inflation later in the week.

After touching a near twenty-year high of 105.01 on May 13, the dollar has eased back to around the 102 level, although Friday's strong payrolls report helped the dollar notch its first weekly gain in three.

The dollar index rose 0.098% at 102.190, with the euro down 0.12% to $1.0706 ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting later this week.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.35% versus the greenback at 131.32 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2547, up 0.47% on the day.


GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair broke resistance at 1.2491 which turned into strong support yesterday. This level coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement which is expected to act as major support today.

Equally important, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward, while the moving average (100) is headed to the upside. Accordingly, the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the EMA 100 is pointing to the uptrend.

This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (1.2524) in the coming hours. The GBP/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 1.2524.

USD/CAD​

Elsewhere, USDCAD is wanting again towards unchanged on the day

The USDCAD has transfer again towards unchanged on the day. The value on Friday closed at 1.25854. The excessive worth simply reached 1.25848. The present worth is buying and selling at 1.25765.

The pair initially moved to the draw back, however discovered help close to an previous trendline after reaching a brand new low going again to April 21. The North American session has seen a bounce to the upside of the final 3-4 hours. The excessive worth for the day was within the Asian session at a pleasant spherical variety of 1.2600.

Getting again into constructive territory for the day and above the 1.2600 stage would have merchants wanting towards the falling 100 hour shifting common 1.26104. Recall from final Thursday, the value moved as much as check that shifting common line solely to search out sellers close to the extent and a rotation again to the draw back. Because of this, the shifting common’s significance has elevated. Getting above it could be a step within the bullish path.

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[Forex Forum]

June-7, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The EUR/USD instrument fell by 40 basis points on Tuesday. The news background of today was simply absent, so the market moved the instrument only based on wave markup. And the wave marking is now almost unambiguous - it assumes a further decrease in the instrument by another 50-100 basis points. Already on Wednesday and Thursday, the news background for the instrument will be much stronger, but this does not mean that demand for the European currency will begin to grow again.

American inflation may cause a decline in the European currency and the construction of the corrective wave b will be completed. And on Thursday, the ECB should announce the completion of the APP program or its readiness to raise the interest rate at the next meetings, then the demand for the European currency will already grow. Thus, the wave analysis and the news background still look very harmonious with each other.

GBP/USD

On the other hand, The British pound climbs for the second straight day amidst two days of a volatile trading session, courtesy of political issues, mainly the Boris Johnson no-confidence vote on Monday. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2593, gaining 0.54%.

So far, the GBP/USD remains buoyant, courtesy of Boris Johnson’s victory, although by a tight margin, spurred a brief relief rally on the pound. Also, falling US Treasury yields narrow the spread between the 10-year US and UK bond yields. However, the sentiment shifted negative, as European bourses closed with losses, while US equities showed some weakness, except for the Russell 2000, up by 0.53%.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value vs. six peers, records minimal losses of 0.01%, sitting at 102.401, a tailwind for the GBP/USD.

JPY/USD​

Japanese Yen weakness has come back to markets in a very big way over the past week. This was one of the most prominent trends in early-2022 trade as markets geared up for rate hikes from pretty much everywhere other than Japan.

While the US was seeing surging inflation and there were signs that the theme was starting to show elsewhere, in Europe, the U.K., and Australia, Japan didn’t have that same problem and this allowed for the BoJ to keep rates low and policy loose as trading counterparts were forced to adjust. This led to a blistering trend in USD/JPY as the pair jumped up to fresh 20-year highs; but after USD/JPY hit the 130.00 psychological level, matters began to slow, and the spot of 131.25 specifically was the area that twice caught the high in the pair, in April and May before prices posed a turn-around.

But, that turn-around was brief as USD/JPY cauterized support around the 127.00 level in late-May before Yen-sellers showed up again around last week’s open.

Russian Ruble​

The Russian rouble gave up gains to weaken on Tuesday, edging away from 61 to the dollar as the finance ministry slightly eased capital controls and investor focus turned to an expected central bank rate cut later in the week.

The finance ministry said export-focused companies were now allowed to transfer foreign currency to their overseas accounts under certain conditions, a move aimed at helping to pay for imports and prevent the rouble from strengthening.

By 1503 GMT, the rouble was 0.2% weaker against the dollar at 61.15, giving up intra-day gains of more than 1%. It has stabilised in the relatively narrow range of 60.0-62.5 in the past few days after rapid swings in May.

The rouble lost 0.5% to trade at 65.40 against the euro.

USD/CHF

The USDCHF moved higher into the US session and in the process moved above the 38.2% of the last trend move lower that saw the pair moved from 1.0063 to 0.95442 (on May 27).

Since that bottom, the price consolidated in a narrow range between 0.9544 and 0.9669 and traded above and below the 100/200 hour MAs. The price moved above those converged MAs on Friday, corrected to the same MAs yesterday, before racing outside the "red box" (and the 0.9669 level).

Today, the pair based near a higher swing area between 0.96948 and 0.9711 before moving to a high at 0.97782. That move took the price above the 38.2% retracement at 0.97426, and another swing area between 0.97488 and 0.97636.

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June-08, 2022, Daily currency trading latest analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

EUR/USD has oscillated around the 1.07 level since the start of the month. A disappointing European Central Bank (ECB) decision at its meeting on Thursday could pave the way for a fall below 1.06 during the week ahead, economists at Scotiabank report.

EUR/USD’s recovery picks up extra pace and challenges the 1.0750 region on Wednesday.

If the rebound surpasses the 4-month resistance line near 1.0750, the downside pressure is expected to lose traction and allow for the continuation of the move to the may high at 1.0786 (May 30). Up from here comes the weekly high at 1.0936 (April 21), an area reinforced by the 100-day SMA.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view is expected to prevail as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.1215.

AUD/USD​

On the other hand, The Australian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar this week with AUD/USD coiling just below the yearly open. The focus now shifts to a breakout of the June opening-range for guidance as Aussie tests broader downtrend resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD technical price charts into the close of the week.

Technical Outlook:

The Australian Dollar turned just pips ahead of the 2016 low last month at 6827 with Aussie rallying more than 6.6% over the past four-weeks. The advance stalled in to key resistance last week and the focus remains on reaction into the 7254/70 zone for guidance- a region defined by the 200-day moving average, the 2022 yearly open and the 52-week moving average. Just higher rests the March high-day reversal close / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 7314/43- both levels of interest for near-term topside exhaustion IF reached.


GBP/USD

Moreover, The price of the currency pair sterling against the dollar rebounded GBP/USD from the support 1.2430 all the way to the resistance 1.2600 and is trying to stabilize above it during trading today, Wednesday. Yesterday the dollar was broadly bought, resulting in gains on almost all major currencies, although this trend was reversed somewhat after the Census Bureau released its trade balance estimate for April.

According to the technical analysis of the pair:

The failure of the current bounce of the GBP/USD currency pair may support the formation of the head and shoulders formation on the daily chart below. This may bring an opportunity for the bears to shoot down if the currency pair fails to gain momentum to rebound higher. To turn to the upside, it is necessary to move towards the resistance levels 1.2785 and 1.3000, respectively.

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[Forex Forum]

June-09, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The British pound is sliding for the second consecutive day, after reaching a daily high near 1.2560, retreated and eyes for a re-test of the 1.2500 figure. At 1.2509, the GBP/USD falls courtesy of a dismal market mood, influenced by the ECB, which is preparing to lift off rates, although it would be done “gradually,” as ECB’s President Mrs. Lagarde acknowledged.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD daily chart depicts the pair remains downward pressured, though consolidating in a wide 1.2450-1.2600 range. The daily moving averages (DMAs) stay above the exchange rate and accelerate downwards. It’s worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), pushed to positive territory, though of late, is back below the 50 mid-line, which exacerbated the GBP/USD fall in the last two days.

Hence, the GBP/USD bias favors sellers. The GBP/USD first support would be the 1.2500 figure. A breach of the latter will send the pair towards challenging the June 7 swing low at 1.2430. Once cleared, the next demand level would be May 17, 1.2313 daily low, followed by the YTD Low at 1.2155.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY retreats from 2-decade highs around 134.55 but is trimming substantial losses, and albeit losing 0.09%, is preparing for a test of the 135.00 figure. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 134.20, a signal that traders are booking profits ahead of the release of US inflation data on Friday.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY monthly chart depicts the pair as upward biased, but RSI readings at 83 suggest the major might be about to peak soon. However, a rally towards 2002’s yearly high at 135.16 is on the cards. If the USD/JPY clears that hurdle, then a move towards the August 1998 high at 147.67 is on the cards.

US DOLLAR​

The US Dollar has been taking a pause in the bullish trend since hitting a fresh high at 105 on DXY in mid-May. That 105 level is a psychological level and after coming into play, it led to a 23.6% pullback of the US Dollar’s recent bullish trend, with a point of support coming into play at the Fibonacci retracement plotted at 101.35.

That low printed last Monday and since then, buyers have been slowly getting back into the matter, pushing a bullish move up to another Fibonacci level at 102.78.

Russian rouble

The Russian rouble slid off a two-week high on Thursday after President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that the market interpreted as a potential means for export-focused companies to scale down conversion of foreign currency.

Exporters will now need to convert forex into roubles in an amount set by a government commission, the decree said, without providing details.

The move was seen as paving the way to an imminent easing of capital controls that had obliged exporters to convert 80% of their revenues into roubles after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24. This ratio was later lowered to 50% in May.

By 1342 GMT, the rouble was 0.3% weaker against the dollar at 59.60 , earlier clipping its strongest point since May 25 of 57.4075.

It was still 0.3% stronger on the day at 63.33 versus the euro after touching a two-week high of 61.20.

USD/CAD

The run to the upside in the USDCAD has now moved through the next key upside target. That target included the 200 day moving average at 1.2659, and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 25 high at 1.26571. Getting above those levels increase the bullish bias. They also represent close risk intraday for the pair.

Recall from last week, the price trade above and below the 200 day moving average on May 30, May 31, June 1, and June 2 before breaking to the downside. The high price during that consolidation took the price up to 1.2686.

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June-10, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The USD/JPY hit levels not seen since 2002 and then pulled back only modestly. Analysts at MUFG Bank point out that the USD/JPY move higher may slow down on an increased risk of intervention to curb yen’s weakness. They see short-term risks in USD/JPY to the upside.

“The risks over the short-term is for USD/JPY to drift further higher. The CPI data and the Fed meeting next week will provide support for US yields, underlining the lack of change to the policy divergence driver, especially given Governor Kuroda’s speech this week. The threat of intervention is certainly now much higher following the statement today expressing concern, which may result in increased reluctance for speculative yen selling and result in non-dollar yen strength in circumstances of broader US dollar strength into the FOMC and BoJ meetings next week.”

EUR/USD

Yesterday’s European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and press conference (although more hawkish) sent the euro tumbling post-announcement. Leading up to the announcement, markets were pricing in a more aggressive stance but the ECB quelled these projections by opening up the potential for a 50bps rate hike in September and not July as many expected. In addition, growth forecasts were revised lower thus weighing on euro upside despite the possibility of the aforementioned 50bps jump. GDP growth revisions read as follows:

2.8% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023, and 2.1% in 2024

Technical outlook

Trendline resistance on the daily EUR/USD chart has held once again emphasizing its importance since early February 2022. Price action is skewed to the downside and I would not be surprised if we see bears break below 1.0600 towards the 1.0500 psychological zone.

Resistance levels:

1.0800
Trendline resistance (black)
50-day EMA (blue)
20-day EMA (purple)

Support levels:

1.0600
1.0500

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NZD/USD

The NZDUSD rallied in the Asian session, and moved back up toward a topside trend line.

Recall from yesterday, the price did move briefly above that trend line but quickly reversed to the downside. That move to the downside extended to a swing area between 0.63749 and 0.63792 toward the end of trading yesterday and into the earlier Asian session. Buyers lean against that level pushing the price toward the aforementioned topside trend line.

The low price briefly move below the 61.8% retracement at 0.6353. That came near a swing area between 0.63447 and 0.63479 and the lower channel trendline at 0.6336 currently (and moving lower).

XAG/USD

Silver (XAG/USD) advances after seesawing earlier in the day, reaching a three-week low at $21.27, but staged a recovery after the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment slumped the most in 5 decades. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $21.82, erasing earlier losses and now gaining 0.57%.

In the meantime, the US Dollar is rallying to fresh three-week highs, at 104.174, gaining 1.96%. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield is rallying to new four-week highs at 3.14%, up by twenty basis points.

US consumer sentiment plunges, and US inflation rose to 4-decades highs
US consumer sentiment plummeted the most in 5-decades, following an inflation report that in the previous two months before May reading fell though rebounded to 8.6% YoY.


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June-13, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The safe-haven dollar rose to a fresh four-week high against a basket of currencies on Monday, supported by fears of a global economic slowdown and bets on steep interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Global financial markets continued to smart from Friday's hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data that led to a broad-based drop in risk sentiment and fueled bets on even more aggressive policy tightening.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks the greenback against six other major currencies, was up 0.4% at 104.83, within sight of the 2-decade high of 105.01 touched in mid May.

USD/JPY

On the other hand, The USD/JPY plunges close to 200 pips after breaking above the 135.15 January 2002 high, as speculations of Japanese authorities’ intervention in the FX market emerged last Friday. At 134.18, the USD/JPY retreated from daily highs at around 135.19, despìte US Treasury yields extending their gains towards multi-year highs.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value against its peers, is advancing 0.64% at 104.857 after reaching a 20-year high at around 105.065.

Central bank divergence between the Fed and the BoJ’s had been the main drivers of the USD/JPY in the year. Also, the positive correlation of the pair with the US 10-year Treasury yield triggered a USD/JPY rally, from 116.00 to 135.00.

EUR/USD​

Elsewhere, EUR/USD sank on Monday, falling as much as 0.9% to 1.0420 at its worst point, hitting its lowest level in more than a month, pressured by broad-based U.S. dollar strength and risk-off sentiment. During the session, the DXY index briefly surged above the 105.00 mark, touching its highest level in more than 20 years, bolstered by soaring U.S. Treasury yields. Stocks also plummeted amid hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 3% and entering bear market territory, a move that reinforced safe haven demand.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD deepened losses at the start of the week, breaking below a key area of support near 1.0500, a bearish signal for price action. If the pair closes below this level decisively, we could see a move towards the 2022 lows at 1.0349 in the coming days. On further weakness, the focus shifts lower to exchange rate parity.

On the other hand, if dip buyers return and manage to spark a bullish reversal, initial resistance appears at 1.0500. If prices climb above this barrier, upside pressure could pick up pace, pushing EUR/USD towards the next ceiling around 1.0650.


GBP/USD

The GBPUSD is down for the 4th consecutive day, and in the process, the pair has moved to test the swing low from May 13 (and low for the year) at 1.21543.

The low price for the day has reach 1.2160 so far.

Drilling to the hourly chart, the price action today initially found Asian session support near 1.2260. That level was the swing low going back to May 9. The subsequent bounce saw the price reenter a swing area between 1.2288 to 1.2302. The high price on a corrective move stalled right at the 1.2300 natural resistance level (the high reached 1.22998) and just below the high of the swing area. The price has been trending to the downside since that successful test.

XAU/USD​

Gold spot (XAU/USD) slides to a new monthly low near the $1820 figure on Monday, as US Treasury yields skyrocket, propelled by Friday’s hotter than expected US inflation numbers, ahead of the US Federal Reserve June meeting, in which investors have priced in a 50 bps increase. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1826.60, down near 2.20%.

In the meantime, Gold remains trading heavy after reaching a daily high near $1880, weighed by higher US Treasury yields. The 10-year benchmark note rate jumped to multiyear-highs, to levels last seen in 2011, at around the 3.314% threshold, up by 15 bps.

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June-14, 2022, Daily forex trading analysis and currency exchange forecast, by forex forum.​

The EUR/USD continue to pull back after the beginning of the American session and it is hovering around 1.0410, slight above Monday’s close. Earlier on Tuesday, the pair peaked at 1.0485 but then lost momentum as Wall Street turned to the downside and as US yields printed fresh highs.

After a positive opening, the Dow Jones is falling by 0.42% and the S&P 500 by 0.11%. The US 10-year bond yield stands at 3.45%, the highest since April 2011. The FOMC meets and will announce on Wednesday a rate hike. Speculations of a 75 basis points rate hike rose after CPI inflation data on Friday; the PPI numbers today came below expectation but did not alleviate tightening expectations.

USD/JPY

On the other hand, Early on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expanded bond buying and offered to increase purchases over different durations on Wednesday, to bring the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) back within the 0.25% cap.

USD/JPY TECHNICAL LEVELS TO CONSIDER

On the daily chart, USD/JPY appears to be consolidating between 135 and 134.50 as the market contemplates the next move. While it is difficult to make a case against the US dollar, prices look overbought at current levels – shown by the RSI. In addition, price action over the last few days offers little insight other than ‘indecision’, as small candle bodies are accompanied by extended wicks on both sides.

As such, if we are to see a lower move/pullback, the lowest wick around 133.20 becomes the tripwire for a potential drop lower followed by 131.35. On the upside, a break and hold above 135, could indicate the re-emergence of the bullish trend – something that could very well materialize should markets view tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision as hawkish. A potential 75 basis point hike would widen the current interest rate differential even more which could see the yen depreciate against the dollar further.

US Dollar​

Moreover, The dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, to scale a fresh two-decade high, as traders braced for an aggressive rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week to try to curb inflation.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks its performance against six other major currencies, was up 0.1% at 105.27, after climbing to as high as 105.32, its strongest since December 2002.

With inflation and growth-related concerns plaguing economies around the world, the greenback has benefited from safe haven flows in recent weeks and months.


NZDUSD

Elsewhere, The NZDUSD - like other pairs vs the USD - is on a downward streak. For the NZDUSD it is working on its 8th consecutive day to the downside. The move lower has taken the price from 0.6575 on June 3 to the low of 0.6218 today so far. Yesterday the price closed at 0.62589. Stay below that level is more bearish

The move to the downside has pushed the price toward the May low which bottomed at 0.6212 on May 13. That is also the low for the year. The low price on May 12 was at 0.62164. Getting below both those levels would open up the door for further downside momentum. The low price just reached 0.6218 – just above those levels and trades at 0.6224 currently.

AUD/USD​

The Australian dollar plunges to fresh four-week lows after news that the Federal Reserve would hike 75 bps in the June meeting, the largest since 1994, as US inflation hit 8.6%, showing signs of not abating in the near term. After reaching a daily high near 0.6970, the Aussie dollar collapsed and trades at 0.6894 at the time of writing.

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD is downward biased, reinforced by the break below the June 2 low at 0.7140, extending the pair losses towards the 0.7030s area. Nevertheless, on Monday, the major collapsed in tandem with most G8 currencies vs. the greenback on Federal Reserve news.

Therefore, the AUD/USD might re-test the 0.6900 before resuming the uptrend. Then the AUD/USD first support would be the May 16 low at 0.6872. A breach of the latter would expose the May 13 daily low at 0.6853, followed by the YTD low at 0.6828.

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June-15, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The British pound gained some ground on Wednesday and trimmed five days of consecutive losses after reaching a 2-year low at around 1.1935. However, the GBP/USD stages a recovery and is back above the 1.2000 mark, trading at 1.2092, up by 0.81% at the time of writing.

Positive sentiment and lower US Treasury yields, a tailwind for GBP/USD

The pullback in US Treasury yields weighed on the greenback against the pound. The US 10-year Treasury yield is sliding five bps, at 3.418%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a measure of the buck’s value against some peers, records minimal losses of 0.06%, down at 105.411.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is falling on Wednesday, trading at daily lows near 1.0380 ahead of the Fed’s decision. The US dollar is posting mixed results while the euro is falling across the board weakened after the European Central Bank emergency meeting.

The EUR/USD awaits the outcome of the two-day Fed meeting trading at daily lows and looking at the May bottom of 1.0345/50. The mentioned area is a key support that if broken could open the doors to 1.0300 and below. Also, the area could trigger a rebound. Resistance levels might be located at 1.0420 and then 1.0490/1.0500.

USDCHF​

As the market awaits the FOMC decision at 2 PM ET, the USDCHF is trading near its highs for the day and for the week just reached 1.00297. The high price yesterday extended to 1.0036.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price action initially moved to the downside in the Asian session, and in doing so entered within a wide swatch of swing highs and lows that was developed between May 9, and May 18. That area comes between 0.9961 and 0.99937. The price low extended to the low of that swing area at 0.9961, where support buyers did show up and push the price back to the upside.


AUD/USD

AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.6850 (which stopped the earlier sharp downward impulse wave 1 in the middle of May).

The upward reversal from the support level 0.6850 is likely to create the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – a strong buy signal for this currency pair.

Given the oversold daily Stochastic, AUDUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next round resistance level 0.7000.

XAU/USD​

Gold found some bids this morning after the week’s significant drop towards $1800/oz. The U.S. dollar being one such influence is trading marginally lower thus boosting gold prices ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision later this evening (see calendar below). Retail sales will serve as a precursor to the Fed rate decision and we could see anything higher than 0.2% could add to the already hawkish narrative, leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold.

Russian rouble

The Russian rouble was down slightly in Wednesday trading, while stocks gained ground, shielded from the widespread global sell-off of recent days by Moscow's capital controls.

At 1330 GMT, the rouble shed 0.5% against the dollar at 56.89 and was down 0.3% to trade at 59.35 against the euro.

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June-16, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

EUR/USD advances above the 1.0400-1.0500 range, and it is trading with gains of 0.68% during the New York session, at around 1.0509 at the time of writing.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD daily chart depicts the pair as downward biased unless it recovers the 1.0800 mark. Furthermore, the Relative Strenght Index at 43 remains in negative territory, despite Tuesday’s jump, which propelled the consolidation in the EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD 1-hour chart depicts the pair trading above a double bottom neckline in the near term. However, the last candle shows price exhaustion, and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.66 accelerating toward overbought conditions, a pullback towards the neckline around 1.0470 is on the cards. That said, the EUR/USD will find some resistance levels at the R1 daily pivot at 1.0512, followed by the double bottom target at 1.0550.

USD/CAD

The Canadian Dollar slipped more than 1.2% against the US Dollar this week with USD/CAD surging back into a critical resistance pivot on the heels of a 75 basis point hike from the FOMC. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold and we’re on the lookout for possible price inflection here this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly technical price chart.

Initial weekly support now rests with the June 6th weekly reversal close at 1.2784 and the 61.8% retracement at the 1.27-handle- we’ll reserve this threshold as our medium-term bullish invalidation level. A topside breach / close above 1.3023 is needed to validate resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objectives at the 75% parallel (currently ~1.3120) and the 100% extension of the 2021 advance at 1.3230- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Russian rouble​

The Russian rouble and stocks gained on Thursday, as the head of the central bank said the currency would remain free-floating and that capital controls should continue to be relaxed.

At 1435 GMT, the rouble was 0.7% stronger against the dollar at 56.61 and had gained 1.4% to trade at 58.96 versus the euro.

Russian stocks also pushed higher in trading in Moscow.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 2.3% to 1,309.7 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 1.6% higher at 2,355.2 points.

USD/JPY

The USDJPY broke below its 200 hour moving average today and buyers turned to sellers. Recall from yesterday, the 200 hour moving average did stall the fall, and not led to a bounce back higher in the Asian session.

The price bounce in the Asian session did extend back above its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above at 134.402 currently), but could not maintain momentum.

The SNB surprise rate decision, sent the pair through the 200 hour moving average and down to a low at 132.304. That tested the intraday swing low from June 7 at 132.306. So far the level is holding, but on a break, the 38.2% retracement at 132.05 would next be targeted, followed by a swing area at 131.24 – 131.345.

GBP/USD​

The GBP/USD pair witnessed a short-covering bounce on Thursday and rallied nearly 150 pips from the 1.2040 area, or the daily low touched in the aftermath of the Bank of England policy decision. The momentum pushed spot prices to a three-day high, around the 1.2280-1.2285 region during the early North American session.

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[Forex Forum]

June-17, 2022, Daily currency pairs analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The dollar is back on the offensive across the board (except for versus Swiss franc) on Friday after two days of solid losses. The USD index climbed back above 104.00 but still lacks recovery momentum, struggling around 104.60 as risk sentiment has improved somehow at the end of a very tough week. European stocks switched into recovery mode, and so did US equities. Still, Wall Street indexes are on pace for a bearish week ahead of a long weekend in the United States.

ECB policymaker Knot said that the central bank could opt for several 50 basis points rate hikes in case the inflation situation in the Eurozone worsens. However, those remarks seem to have no impact on the common currency. EUR/USD is now back below the 1.0500 figure, shedding nearly 0.6% on the day.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD extended its slide after dropping below 1.0500 and touched a fresh daily low below 1.0450. As the dollar continues to gather strength, the pair looks to close the second straight week in negative territory.

DXY rises to 105.00

Following a two-day drop, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of six major rivals, reversed its direction and erased its weekly losses. At the time of press, the DXY was up more than 1% on the day at 105.00.

GBP/USD​

Next week’s economic calendar is rife with high impact events from both the UK and U.S. (see economic calendar below) with UK inflation being the main focus for the pound. Both core and headline inflation figures have yet to take a step back since September last year with expectations looking at another increase. This should increase hawkish pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to increase interest rates by 50bps in August – which they have put forward as an option in during their last rate announcement.

Technical analysis

Daily GBP/USD price action shows the recovery post-FOMC and BoE but has since given back some gains on Friday. Bulls are finding resistance at the 20-day EMA level (purple) and as we head into Wednesdays CPI read I don’t see much in the way of significant price moves for cable. I expect prices to hover between the 1.2200 and 1.2400 levels respectively with my medium/long-term outlook in favor of the U.S. dollar. While there is still room for upside in the short-term, a key point of inflection would be around trendline resistance (black) and whether or not we see a candle close above (breakout) which could then prompt a mindset change to a potential trend reversal.


USD/CAD

The USD/CAD soars above the 1.3000 mark for the first time since May 12 and records a fresh YTD high at around 1.3078 after Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve 75 bps rate hike, which did not catch traders off guard due to an article on the WSJ on Monday that foresaw an increase of that size. The USD/CAD initially reacted downwards to 1.2880 but was seen as an opportunity for USD/CAD buyers, which lifted the pair higher. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.3045, up by 0.81%.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

With the USD/CAD trading at fresh YTD highs, switching to the weekly chart is needed to determine what’s next for the major. It’s worth noting that the USD/CAD is trading above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a strong bullish signal that could lift the pair towards October’s 2020 highs at around 1.3390. Nevertheless, the USD/CAD is retreating below the May 12 high at 1.3076.

A daily close below 1.3078 would open the door for further losses. That said, the USD/CAD first support would be the 1.3000 mark. Once cleared, the following support would be the June 16 1.2860 cycle low, followed by 1.2800.

AUD/USD​

The AUDUSD rallied higher yesterday along with the other dollar selling trends in the major currency pairs. However, once the pair reached the 200 hour moving average and 50% retracement near 0.7066, sellers leaned and the price started wandering back to the downside.

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