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Technical analysis by forex traders.

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Oct 3, 2021
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GBPUSD is marginally out of the bullish channel. Price continues to have a positive slope and as long as we trade above 1.3745, bulls will have hopes of seeing higher levels. If price breaks below 1.3745 we will get a bearish signal.

GBPUSD has given us in the last few days several warning signals of a coming reversal. Initially the reversal was expected to move price close to the lower channel boundary. Since support held, we expected price to move again towards the recent highs around 1.3830 and why not break them. However price did not make a new higher high and got rejected at the previous highs. Now it is out of the bullish channel and this is a bearish sign.
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The EUR/USD weekly technical forecast is bearish as Friday saw a big dip towards the YTD lows where it found a little support.

After hitting a new October high of 1.1691 on Thursday, EUR/USD fell below the 1.1600 mark and posted fresh lows near 1.1560. Although mixed European performance and a flattening US yield curve have limited euro strength, the Euro has received some attention after the release of dire US growth figures and the ECB’s monetary policy announcement.
Weakness in US dollar underpins Dogecoin.

The US dollar was also weak across the board, despite the better-than-expected macro-economic data release of the manufacturing PMI. The DXY dropped to 93.86, which ultimately should have pushed the DOGE/USD prices higher, as the two are negatively correlated, but the cryptocurrency ignored the weakness of the US dollar and kept on declining amid a correction. US investors were more focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting scheduled for this week.
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 2, NET LENGTH of crude oil futures dropped -4 425 contracts to 419 293. Speculative longs dropped -4 425 contracts while shorts gained +2 885 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for heating oil dropped -3 407 contracts to 22 384, while that for gasoline slipped -1 348 contracts to 49 697. NET SHORT of natural gas futures slipped -475 contracts to 137 713 during the week.
EUR/USD starts to roll over once more after recent rebound.

EUR/USD has been on the rise over the course of this week thus far, with the pair regaining lost ground since Friday’s low of $1.1513.

A break up through the $1.1617 resistance level would bring a more positive picture into play. However, we are instead seeing the bearish trend kick back in here, with the decline below $1.157 highlighting the beginning of a downward turn.
The pound was flat on the day versus the dollar $1.341

Britain and the EU will intensify their efforts to break the impasse this week, the European Commission’s Maros Sefcovic said.

Analysts were split over how much impact the Brexit tensions were having on the pound.

At 0852 GMT, the pound was flat on the day versus the dollar, at $1.341, lagging behind other major currencies which were benefiting from a “risk-on” mood in FX markets more broadly.

Versus the euro, it was also flat, at 85.325 pence per euro.

Weekly CFTC positioning data showed that speculators are overall bullish on the pound versus the dollar, and that in the week to Nov 9 the size of this net long position remained close to that of the week before.
Oil Trading Analysis and Outlook

Oil futures edged higher Tuesday, with the U.S. benchmark extending the previous session’s bounce, as investors weighed how quickly supply will rise to meet continued strength in demand.

West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery CL00, +0.40% CLZ21, 0.38% rose 53 cents, or 0.7%, to $81.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude BRN00, 0.59% BRNF22, +0.60%, the global benchmark, was up 71 cents, or 0.9%, at $82.76 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

The International Energy Agency, in its monthly report, said the tight supply and demand balance in the global oil market could be set to ease. The IEA said it expects output to rise by 1.5 million barrels a day in the remainder of 2021, with the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia accounting for around half of that amount.
GBPUSD traders having trouble pushing the pair higher.

The GBPUSD got a boost from the higher-than-expected inflation data, but traders have been having trouble extending higher above its 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below).

The GBPUSD price has extended above its 200 hour moving average on three separate hourly bars (including the current bar), but the price has not been able to sustain momentum and has dipped back below the key line. The pair had not been above its 200 hour moving average since October 29 until today.
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