Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Pair AUDUSD kembali kepada turun naik antara tahap utama diwakili oleh 0,7595 sokongan dan rintangan saluran penurunan utama bahawa menurun sekarang untuk 0,7640, dengan itu,saya akan terus dengan berkecuali sehingga harga berjaya melepasi satu tahap ini untuk mengesan sasaran seterusnya jelas .

Seperti yang telah dinyatakan dalam laporan baru-baru ini, memecahkan sokongan yang dinyatakan akan menolak harga untuk meneruskan perdagangan dalam saluran penurunan harga yang tersebut diikuti dengan mensasarkan 0,7448 kemudian 0,7329 tahap awalnya, manakala melanggar rintangan akan membawa harga untuk menghidupkan trek jangka jangka pendek dan sederhana ke arah atas, untuk memulakan sasaran positif pada 0,7833 dan diperluaskan kepada 0,8115.

julat dagangan dijangka untuk hari ini adalah antara 0,7500 sokongan dan 0,7710

trend dijangka untuk hari ini: Bergantung kepada tahap yang dinyatakan di atas

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: bears try to broke "Window"

There’re a support by the lower “Window” and a resistance by the 13 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “Harami” at the local high, so bears are likely going to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a new low.

We’ve got a “Tower” pattern at the local high, which has a confirmation. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average once again. If we see a pullback from this level, sellers will likely try to deliver a new low.

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GBP: a hint of recovery, but for how long?

The EUR/GBP has fallen significantly since Monday as investors became anxious about how Deutsche Bank manages to unravel from its mounting problems. However, the pound’s advances are believed to be limited and the currency could easily crash from its peaks unless supportive data is published this Friday. Alternatively, if we don’t receive any signs of British economic recovery, the GBP may shoot again from its weekly highs.

The main stakeholders favor the first scenario which stands for the pound’s depreciation. Danske – the largest bank in Denmark, is long EUR/GBP from 0,8374, with a target at 0,9000 and stop at 0,8100. Its decision could be explained by various reasons. Danske believes that GBP will continue to depreciate with BoE’s monetary easing and considerable imbalances in the UK economy. It points out at the forecasts of the significant current deficit of approximately 6,4% of 2015 GDP. On top of this, Bank of England in its latest announcement made it clear that it is going to cut rates again this year, if its forecasts for growth are confirmed by the data. In addition, there is uncertainty about further EU-UK relationship is hovering in the air. The British government has yet not triggered the withdrawal process, striving to somehow prepare the vulnerable economy for the turbulent consequences.

Société générale also remains bearish of GBP and decides to open long position on EUR/GBP from 0,8620 with a target at 1,0000. According to the bank’s analysts, the EUR/USD may rise by 5 – 10% from its current position. There is a great potential for an upward movement, since there was a long period of consolidation and sideways trading.

CITI, unlike its colleagues, tends to support the second scenario. Recently, it has opened a short position on EUR/GBP from 0,8622, with a target at 0,8333 and a stop at 0,8750. CITI’s analysts noticed an evening star pattern on the technical EUR/GBP chart.

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EUR/USD: "Double Zigzag" in wave E

Wave E of (Y) turned out to be a Double Zigzag, so wave [x] is likely going to be continued. If we see a pullback from 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in wave [y] of E.

E

There’s a zigzag in wave [x], which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Previously, wave (b) was ended under 4/8 MM Level, so bears are likely going to reach the main intraday target at 2/8 MM Level.

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EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver wave [y] of E

Wave E is likely taking form of a double zigzag. Previously, the price formed a pullback from 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). So, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [y] of E soon.

The main intraday target on the one-hour chart is 6/8 MM Level. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (c) of [y]. In this case we should keep an eye on +2/8 MM Level as a possible bullish goal.

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EUR/USD & German Trade Balance: Not an enough catalyst for today's moves

Today at 06:00 GMT will be released the German trade balance’s figures and it seems that we could expect an increase from 19.4B to 20.0B for August. It should be noted that Eurozone has been living a surplus in terms of exports and the data for Germany is still showing some positive numbers, despite the latest two releases, where we saw some numbers below the forecasted. Today’s liquidity should be slow, as economic calendar’s data will be little, because of holidays in North America.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a complex structure in the short-term, while the pair remains to trade below the 200 SMA. One could expect a rise to the 1.1227 level, but today’s events shouldn’t be enough catalysts to move the pair across the board. That’s why we can expect very technical moves for the EUR/USD and eventually, it can find dynamic resistance at 200 SMA to resume the bearish bias.

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Powder and shot from FX Bazooka: “The third candle” strategy

As you know, three is a magic number, so there is a forex strategy named “The third candle” that proved to be rather efficient. We suggest you learn it and add to your ammunition to earn more money while trading. The strategy can be applied to any currency pair on any timeframe. In order to use it you should plot stochastic indicator (5, 3, 3) on your technical chart.

How to use it

1. Select the first candle. Its maximum and minimum should be located higher than that of the previous candle. The color of the previous candlestick does not matter.

2. Wait until the second candle closes in the red zone, the closing price of the previous two candles should be lower. If the second candle opens above the closing price of the first candlestick, the bearish signal is particularly strong.

3. Open a short position at the opening of the third candle. The signal must be confirmed by Stochastic indicator.

4. If the bodies of the first and second candles are very small – you shouldn’t enter the market, because quotes failed to get momentum and bears are losing their strength.

5. Stop loss should be placed a few pips above the high of the first candle.

6. Take-profit is usually plotted at the close of the third candle.

7. If you set a take-profit target at a certain mark, but the price is moving sideways, it is advisable to close the position at the fifth candle once the order is open.

And one more thing to bear in mind: don’t use this strategy in a highly volatile period of trading.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Greenback drops with eyes on Fed gathering minutes

On Wednesday, the evergreen buck descended against other key currencies, as traders turned to the minutes of the Fed’s latest gathering, due later in the day, though sustained expectations for a 2016 American rate lift kept the major American currency close to seven-month peaks.

The currency pair EUR/USD fell 0.10%, reaching 1.1043, the lowest value since July 27.

USD/JPY rose 0.12%, hitting 103.63 after on Wednesday, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda repeate4d to Japan's parliament that he’s still willing to drop interest rates or expand asset buying if required.

Traders were waiting for the minutes of the Fed’s September policy gathering for fresh clues on the major bank’s future policy moves.

Demand for the American dollar is still supported, as on Tuesday, the odds for a December rate lift passed the 70% threshold.

The currency pair GBP/USD leapt 1.25% to hit 1.2275, bouncing off the multi-decade minimums achieved during recent trading sessions amid surging ‘hard Brexit’ worries for the UK.

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EUR/USD: wave (iv) coming soon

We’ve got a wedge in wave (i), which led to a decline in wave (iii). However, the current bearish impulse is likely going to end soon. So, if a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction, which could be wave (iv).

There’s a possible diagonal triangle, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Therefore, if we see a pullback from 0/8 MM Level, then bulls will probably try to set up a correction. The main intraday target for wave (iv) is 2/8 MM Level.

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

US dollar: outlook for October 17-22

It was another bullish week for the US currency. US dollar index, which tracks the dynamics of the greenback against 6 currencies of America’s trading partners, rose above July highs in the 97.60 area. A close above this level will open the way for further gains to 98.50 and 99.00. Support is at 96.00 and 95.15.

According to CME, the possibility of the Fed’s December rate hike accounts for 63%. FOMC meeting minutes showed that the central bank is leaning towards raising rates. Several FOMC members said a rate hike was needed “relatively soon”, although speculation that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen may be too dovish to allow a December rate hike is limiting the power of USD bulls. The Fed will keep watching the incoming US economic data in order to make its judgement by December. The regulator is expected to leave policy unchanged at November meeting and move only after the Unites States elect a new President. Retail sales and producer prices figures released in the past week exceeded forecasts.

Next week the US will release Empire State manufacturing index and industrial production on Monday, consumer inflation on Tuesday, building permits, housing starts and crude oil inventories on Wednesday and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, unemployment claims and existing home sales on Thursday. The third and the last round of the US presidential debate will take place on Wednesday. The latest Fox News poll showed that Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased to seven points.

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