Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Norkina : Dollar cannot find its strength
18 August 2015, 10:10 Comments: 0

Tatyana Norkina – analytic for company FBS

The US dollar is not able to recover strength against the yen after Friday's rebound from the 124.50 resistance. The course of the currency pair USD / JPY remains inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel, under the resistance line Tenkan-sen on the four-hour timeframe.

Perhaps, the resumption of offensive bulls is prevented by local overboughtness of the pair, which is confirmed by the Chinkou line. However, in both the short and long term, perspectives, the market situation is owned by the bulls. Indeed, the golden cross and bullish cloud may increase positive sentiment, which will subsequently lead to the breakthrough 124.50.

Technical levels: Support - 124.00 ; Resistance - 124.50.

Trading recommendations: 1. Buy - 124.30; SL - 124.10; TP1 - 125.60; TP2 - 126.00.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for August 19
18 August 2015, 11:18 Comments: 1

Kira Iukhtenko

Wednesday is going to be an important day for the US dollar. We will be watching the inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The US currency could get fundamental support from the Chinese economic developments and the commodity rout extension.

GBP/USD has finally tested the levels above 1.5700 after the upbeat UK inflation releases. CPI added 0.1%, while the core CPI surged to 1.2% (5-months high). Price growth raised hopes for the BOE rate hike in the near future. Fix above 1.5700 would open the way to our next target of 1.5790.

There are no important releases to watch in the euro area until Friday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is testing the 1.1050 support as we write (100-day MA). Fix below would trigger a move to 1.0820. Fed’s expectations will play the biggest part in the coming days.

RBA meeting minutes released on Tuesday showed the central bank is satisfied with the AUD depreciation. We see space for more downside in the coming sessions. China’s risks will influence the Aussie, so the pair AUD/USD targets 0.7315.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: buy target - 1.1400
21 August 2015, 08:18 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

EUR/USD reached buy target 1.1200
Next buy target - 1.1400

EUR/USD yesterday broke above the resistance level 1.1200 – which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The pair earlier reversed up sharply from the support zone lying between the former resistance trendline from the start of the year (acting as support now after it was broken previously) and 50% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier upward impulse wave from July.

The breakout of the resistance level 1.1200 is likely to strengthen the bullish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions. EUR/USD is set to rise further in the active minor corrective wave 2 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1400.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: forecast for August 24-30


By Elizabeth Belugina

The past week was eventful for the euro area and especially for Greece. International creditors agreed to provide the nation with 86-billion euro bailout. Greece will be getting the money within the next 3 years. In return, Greek authorities will have to raise taxes and cut spending. Greece got the first 26-billion tranche on Thursday: 10 billion will be used to recapitalize the banks, while about 3 billion were repaid to the ECB.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

US dollar: forecast for August 24 - 30
21 August 2015, 12:31 Comments: 0

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar index reached its lowest level since June 30 by the end of the week (95.40). Increased global uncertainty lowers expectations for a Fed’s rate hike on the September 17 meeting. Dovish Fed’s policy minutes and lower inflation data became another argument against a premature hike. Futures market is currently pricing in only 24% chance for a Fed’s hike in September.

Chart. USD Index Weekly

We believe the US currency has some room for a corrective decline, but the buyers are expected to return into the market ahead of the September 4 NFP. It will finally become clear that there is nothing more stable than the US economy these days.

US are scheduled to release a bag of important figures on the new week. Pay special attention to the Q2 GDP second estimate. There is a chance for the figure to be revised higher from the preliminary +2.3% reading. The famous Jackson Hole symposium starts on Thursday.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for August 26
25 August 2015, 14:05 Comments: 0

By Elizaveta Belugina

Chinese authorities finally addressed the economic and market turmoil by cutting the benchmark interest rate. The markets felt relief: stocks recovered and oil recovered, while the euro and the yen that strengthened as safe havens during the ‘Black Monday’ declined. US dollar was supported by the low-yielding currencies on the latest news from China as the move of the People’s Bank of China diminished fears that the Federal Reserve will have to delay interest rate hikes. Data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence improved. US durable goods orders will be released at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday (forecast is negative).

EUR/USD spiked towards 1.1715 on Monday, but is now testing 1.1500 to the downside. The pair met resistance of the mildly sloping uptrend, which has been in place since March. In the 1.1700 area, one can also find 55-week MA and resistance of the 2014-2015 decline. Resistance is at 1.1625, 1.1700 and 1.1800. There are signs of a top, and the euro will likely return lower. Support is at 1.1430, 1.1380 and 1.1280. Fundamentally, we think that the ECB won’t like to see the euro so high, so it will be more difficult for the single currency to get much higher at this point.

GBP/USD rose to 1.5800 on Monday closing above 1.5700 since the end of June. Pound should be more cheering of the recovery in oil that the euro. Still, resistance lies at 1.5815 (May high) ahead of 1.5900/30 (July high). Support is at 1.5700 and 1.5630. UK will release data only of the minor importance, so the market’s focus will remain on the US and risk sentiment.

USD/JPY is consolidating below resistance at 120.50 and 121.50. The pair was supported this week by the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and the 55-week MA. However, the advance of the US dollar will likely be limited as the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike took a blow after the recent market’s turmoil. Support is at 119.40, 118.88 and 118.00.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7200 after testing 0.7038 on Monday. On Wednesday morning, we will hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens. Support is at 0.7170 and 0.7115. Resistance is at 0.7285, 0.7310 and 0.7335.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug 26
26 August 2015, 07:17 Comments: 0

Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 120.20, TAKE PROFIT 115.86, STOP LOSS 120.75 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5725, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930, STOP LOSS 1.5625

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7295

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3140 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 135.56, STOP LOSS 139.05

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0745

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6540, TAKE PROFIT 0.6342, STOP LOSS 0.6635

Trade ideas:

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9440, TAKE PROFIT 0.9259, STOP LOSS 0.9557

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7225, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7150

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 27
27 August 2015, 07:43 Comments: 0

Open positions:

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 134.33, STOP LOSS 137.65

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 120.20, TAKE PROFIT 115.86, STOP LOSS 120.75 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0745

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7220 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3140 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6540, TAKE PROFIT 0.6342, STOP LOSS 0.6635

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9440, TAKE PROFIT 0.9259, STOP LOSS 0.9557

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7225, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7150

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/JPY: buy target - 138.00
28 August 2015, 07:46 Comments: 0

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

EUR/JPY reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 138.00

EUR/JPY recently reversed up from the combined support zone lying between the support level 135.40 (which stopped the previous B-wave, as you can see from the daily EUR/JPY chart below), the former resistance trendline of the recently broken daily Triangle (acting as support now after it was broken by the previous C-wave) and the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous intermediate ABC correction (2).

Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone - EUR/JPY can be expected to correct further up to the next buy target at the resistance level 138.00.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6​

Although we expect the ECB meeting to be a bearish factor for the euro, be aware of the fact that the market’s risk sentiment and the stock markets haven’t stabilized. This can make the single currency swing to the upside. As a result, one has to be prepared for volatile trading.

The technical picture for the euro looks bearish. A shooting start will the long upper shadow is ready to form on the weekly chart. Moreover, the pair returned below 200-day MA. Support is at 1.1150, 1.0950, 1.0850 and 1.0800. A bunch of resistance levels is located at 1.1380, 1.1430 and 1.1500 ahead of 1.1700.