Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Feb. 3​

EUR/USD keeps on consolidating in the $1.1350/1250 range, forming a small horizontal triangle. The medium-term EUR/USD prospects remain gloomy. From the technical viewpoint, euro approached the upper border of the bearish channel ($1.1350) – this is where the first significant resistance lies. Next level to watch - $1.1420 (Jan. 27 high). Selling euro on rallies seems to be the best strategy. On Tuesday euro zone will release Spanish unemployment data. Number of unemployed people is expected to have fallen in January, but less than in December. Pay attention to the news from Greece – these days the new government is trying to soften the credit conditions.

AUD/USD tried to recover above the $0.7800 mark on Monday, but remains in a clear bearish channel. On Tuesday Australia is scheduled to release trade data and building approvals. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting will be in focus – we can’t exclude a new rate cut. In this case the $0.7710 support will likely be broken. Next medium-term bearish target lies at $0.7000. However, note that the pair is oversold and approached the channel support line: in absence of dovish news from RBA the bullish recovery could extend towards $0.7900 and $0.8300.

USD/JPY remains in the triangle, formed in December 2014. On Monday the pair tested the 117 yen mark, but failed to sustain the downside. Next resistance lies at 118.30. This week the Japanese agenda is light, so the pair will mostly be driven by the US data.

GBP/USD resumed the decline on Monday, approaching the $1.5000 mark. Strong manufacturing PMI data failed to support the pound. On Tuesday US is scheduled to release construction PMI (forecast – downbeat). Fix below $1.5000 will open the way to $1.4815. Resistance - $1.5030/50 and $1.5010.

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[TamingSari]

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1350 (EUR 458m), 1.1450 (EUR 1.2bln);

GBP/USD: 1.5000 (GBP 771m);

USD/JPY: 117.00 (USD 2bln), 118.00 (USD 1.4bln), 118.50 (USD 320m), 119.00 (USD 330m);

USD/CAD: 1.2350 (USD 300m), 1.2450 (USD 405m), 1.2500 (USD 353m);

AUD/USD: 0.7650 (AUD 529m), 0.7900 (AUD 202m), 0.7925 (AUD 417m);

NZD/USD: 0.7350 (NZD 251m);

AUD/JPY: 0.9400 (AUD 350m).

 

[haziq06]

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: a hard way to the upside

USD/JPY has finally managed to break above the formation within which it has been trading in December and January. However, the pair failed to settle above the key 120 yen level.

The greenback was let down by the disappointing US retail sales data which showed that advance to the 125 yen mark will be harder and slower than they thought.

On Monday during the Asian session Japan will release figures for the Q4 GDP. Japanese economy will probably recover after the previous dip. This will provide another reason to sell the pair, because it will lower the possibility of further stimulus from the Bank of Japan. There recently have been reports that some members of the regulator are against additional monetary stimulus. The situation may become a little bit clearer on Wednesday when the Bank of Japan will conduct a meeting and a press conference.

Later on Wednesday watch the release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes. Hints on the Fed’s staying on hold for a longer period of time will increase negative pressure on USD, while proposals to start raising rates sooner will make traders buy American currency. Support is at117.30, 116.90 and 115.85. Resistance lies at120.50, 120.80 and 121.80.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Feb. 16: FOREX NEWS

FXBAZOOKA.com - EUR/USD edged up as traders hope that by the end of the day the euro zone finance ministers will find solution of the Greek financial problems. In the US today is the bank holiday (the Presidents’ Day).

USD/JPY is trading in the 118.55 area after touching levels above 120.00. According to the data released on Sunday, Japanese GDP increased by 0.6% in the final 3 months of 2014 after sliding by 0.5% in the previous quarter. Such improvement made investors reduce bets on additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan.

GBP/USD edged up to 1.5440. Pound is supported by the recent hawkish-sounding comments of the Bank of England’s policymakers. Both Governor Mark Carney and his deputy, Ben Broadbent, have said the next move in interest rates is likely to be up. Martin Weale, a policymaker at the central bank, added that the central bank will need to start raising interest rates sooner than investors expect as inflation recovers from current low levels.

Among commodity currencies, the Canadian dollar strengthened a bit as USD/CAD declined on signs of a bottom in oil prices. On Friday Brent crude hit a 2015 high above $60 a barrel.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Feb. 17

EUR/USD consolidates above 1.1400 on Monday. Euro is supported by expectations that the euro zone finance ministers will find a solution of the Greek financial problems by the end of the day. There is hope that even if a compromise can't be reached - the ECOFIN meeting on Tuesday is another chance. You should also watch the February ZEW economic indices for euro zone (51.3 expected) and Germany (56.2 expected) tomorrow (10:00 GMT). Next bullish targets for EUR/USD are seen at 1.1500/30 and at 1.1670 and could be hit on the positive news from Greece or strong ZEW indices. On the other hand, a decline below the intraday support of 1.1360 would open the way down to 1.1280.

GBP/USD holds above the 55-day MA (1.5360), but is trading in the red zone. The cable is trying to enter the daily Ichimoku, supported by the BOE’s Carney hawkish speech delivered last week. Don’t miss the UK inflation figures tomorrow at 9:30 GMT. CPI is expected to have slowed from 0.5% to 0.3% in January, so the release contains a bearish risk for the pound inside. Next resistance lies at 1.5475 (23.6% Fibo), while support – at 1.5350 and 1.5200. The nearest future will show how sustainable the current rally is.

USD/JPY stopped dead in the 118.30/70 range. Today we’ve got some upbeat news from Japan: GDP increased by 0.6% in Q4 2014 after sliding by 0.5% in the previous quarter. Expectations for additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan declined. Tomorrow there are no releases on the Japan’s agenda. The BOJ monthly meeting takes place on Wednesday.

NZD/USD was a big mover on Monday, gapping higher on upbeat New Zealand Q4 retail sales figures. Kiwi approached 50% Fibo from the late-January decline (0.7520). Break higher would open the way to 0.7600/20. AUD/USD consolidates around 0.7780 following the last week’s dip below the 0.7700 figure. Watch the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes at 00:30 GMT on Tuesday – we’ll see how dovish the regulator sounds. The release will impact both the Aussie and the kiwi.

Monday is a bank holiday in the United States. On Tuesday the Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released (forecast - downbeat). On Wednesday markets will focus on FOMC meeting minutes. This publication will likely define the market sentiment towards the US dollar more clearly.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/GBP: trade idea

Dima Chernovolov

• EUR/GBP reached sell target 0.7430

• Next sell targets - 0.7380 and 0.7340

EUR/GBP recently broke down below the support level 0.7430, which was set as the sell target in our earlier report for this currency pair. After breaking below this support level, the pair corrected up to test this price level (acting as resistance now after it was broken) – after which it reversed down and continues to decline at the time of the writing. The resistance zone near 0.7430 was further strengthened by the upper resistance trendline of the daily down channel from the start of January (as you can see from the daily EUR/GBP chart below).

With the daily RSI still trading outside of the oversold territory, EUR/GBP will most probably continue to fall in line with the strong downtrend visible on the daily charts toward the next sell targets - 0.7380 and 0.7340 (intersecting with the support trendline of the weekly down channel from 2011).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Trading plan for Feb. 19

Kira Iukhtenko

The Greek question continues dominating the EUR/USD pair. On Wednesday the exchange rate slipped below the 1.1400 support. Daily close below 1.1360 would be a bearish signal, opening the way towards 1.1310 and 1.1270. Resistance is seen at 1.1450. There is a market speculation that the ECB faces resistance from Germany to allow extra emergency lending for Greek banks. Earlier in the day Greece accused the Eurogroup of changing the draft they previously agreed on Tuesday just at the last minute.On Thursday the ECB is scheduled to release Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts for the first time, trying to increase transparency.

GBP/USD jumped to 1.5440 after the arrival of UK employment data. Unemployment rate lowered to 5.7% in December, while average wages rose from 1.7% to 2.1%. Later in the day the BOE minutes showed MPC voted unanimously to leave monetary policy unchanged. Despite the upbeat news, we remain skeptical about the long-term GBP/USD prospects: UK consumer prices keep on falling, playing against the rate hike expectations. Technically, the bulls could face resistance at the 1.5475 barrier. Watch the UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations on Thursday.

USD/JPY consolidates around the 119.00 mark. The yen met some buying interest on Wednesday after the BOJ left its monetary policy unchanged. Watch the Japanese trade balance on Thursday night. Demand for the commodity currencies remains limited. AUD/USD pulled down from the 0.7800 resistance area, while NZD/USD failed to overcome the 0.7600 mark (50% Fibonacci). New Zealand is scheduled to release PPI tonight.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for Feb. 20​

Greece is the main topic for EUR/USD as it made a request for a 6-month credit which got rejected by Germany. The Eurogroup meeting will take place tomorrow. There are many levels to watch on the upside and the downside. Support for euro is at 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1270 and 1.1200. Resistance is in the 1.1440/50 area and at 1.1500. Volatility is going to increase as the fate of Greece will be determined in the hours to come. Most traders still expect a last-minute compromise. The euro area will release flash PMI data on Friday.

GBP/USD met resistance at 1.5480 (23.6% Fibo of July-January decline) before more resistance in the 1.5550/5600 area. Watch British retail sales figures at 09:30 GMT (forecast is negative). Support is at 1.5400 and a fall below this level will jeopardize the ongoing positive tone making the pair vulnerable for a decline to 1.5350 and 1.5300.

USD/JPY is now caught between 119.40 and 118.40. The consolidation will likely continue. AUD/USD is capped by strong resistance at 0.7850. Support is at 0.7720 and 0.7625.