Technical Analisis Dari FBS.com

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

US Dollar & ADP Employment Change: A support for the greenback is coming?

The greenback is still showing weakness across the board, as the recent US data had shown very negative numbers for the national economy's improvement on a quarterly basis and today at 12:30 GMT will be released the ADP employment change data, where the analysts are expecting a slight decline from 172K to 171K on the July's reading. It should be noted that the latest five releases were mixed, so we'll see how the numbers will be ahead of Friday's US NFP.

Our technical view for US Dollar Index at H4 chart is still bearish, as the index has been doing a consolidation below the 200 SMA. However, we're seeing that it's near to the 61.8% retracement level of the move from 93.01 to 97.59. A rebound above it can drive the DXY towards the 95.97 level as the next critical resistance. However, with a weaker-than-expected ADP reading, we could see a breakout below the 94.97 level, towards the 94.34 as the next south's target.

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/9892

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

CHF/JPY falling inside sharp impulse wave

CHF/JPY falling inside sharp impulse wave
Next sell target - 102.20
CHF/JPY continues to fall inside the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3), which began previously – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 107.70 (earlier buy target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 109.00. This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper resistance trendline of the sharp daily down channel from March.

CHF/JPY is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the powerful support level 102.20 (which stopped the previous waves (1) and B).

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/9905

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/USD: the Bulls are on the attack

Technical levels: support – 0.7560, 0.7590; resistance – 0.7620.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7590; SL — 0.7570; TP1 — 0.7680; TP2 — 0.7750.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, Senkou Span A and B are growing up; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/9919

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

AUD/USD: outlook for August 8-14

Although economic news from Australia weren’t very exciting, Australian dollar manage to hold ground against its US counterpart.

Australian economic figures disappointed: building approvals kept contracting, trade deficit widened, while retail sales growth was weaker than expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate from 1.75% to 1.5%. However, this decision was already priced in by the market, and AUD/USD rebounded from 100-day MA and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud in the 0.7485 area and made an attempt to overcome 2016 resistance line.

However, strong US nonfarm payrolls brought AUD/USD lower. A weekly close below 0.7635 will open the way for decline to 0.7580 and 0.7550. Further support is at 0.7490.

As for the economic calendar, NAB business confidence will be released on Tuesday. On Wednesday we’ll hear from the RBA Governor Stevens. Australian central bank doesn’t like stronger national currency, so if the RBA voices its concerns Aussie bears will finally take the situation in their hands. Also watch China’s economic statistics as it will affect the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, AUD/USD.

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/9946

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

USD/JPY: buyers broke the "Window"

We’ve got a “Harami” and an “Engulfing” at the local low. Also, there’s a new “Window”, but we haven’t got any reversal pattern, which makes possible an achievement of the 34 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Harami” has been confirmed, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction.

The price has been rising since a “Doji” arrived at the local low. Moreover, bulls have broken the “Window”, so there’s an open door for testing of the 144 Moving Average.

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/9971

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/GBP rising inside minor impulse wave 5

Next buy target - 0.8620
EUR/GBP continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 5 - which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8300 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp upward impulse 3 from the end of June. The active impulse wave 5 belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of May.

EUR/GBP is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves 5 and (3) toward the next buy target at the pivotal resistance level 0.8620 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3 in June, as can be seen below).

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/9990

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD reached sell target 1.3000

GBP/USD reached sell target 1.3000
Next sell target - 1.2840
GBP/USD today broke below the round support level 1.3000, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level continues the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which began earlier – when the pair reversed down with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star from the resistance zone surrounding the pivotal resistance level 1.3400.

GBP/USD is expected to continue to fall in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.2840 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1 in July).

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10030

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Greenback is firm after Fed comments

On Friday, the evergreen buck held firm, backed by comments from a Fed speaker, suggesting that an American interest rate hike this year is still real because inflation pressure keeps growing.

American retails sales data along with a series of Chinese economic indicators due later in the day will be the market's next key focus points, though trading could be slow with many investors in Japan on leave this week for the summer holidays.

The dollar's index against a basket of six key counterparts edged up to 95.906 from this week's minimum of 95.442 achieved on Wednesday, though it will probably conclude the week lower, having lost approximately 0.3% so far.

The evergreen buck appears to be on a much more substantial footing than when financial markets were worried about the actual impact of Brexit. It might take time a bit but its direction is definitely looking upwards.

Against the Japanese yen, the evergreen buck firmed to 101.83 yen from this week's minimum near 101 yen, although it stood still on the week so far.

https://fxbazooka.com/news/7203

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD & NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: Not a major catalyst for today

Today should be a very flat day in the markets, as in most of the European and South American countries will have holidays. That's why we're seeing a very light economic calendar, but on the American's side, we'll have the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index to be released at 12:30 GMT, where the markets are expecting an increase from 0.55 to 2.50. That should have the medium impact on US Dollar across the board.

Our technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still pointing to the downside, as the resistance zone of 1.1225, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the Brexit's decline, remains very strong. That should give further hints of possible strengthening on the greenback, but the weakness is still alive. The nearest support zone is located at the 1.1073 level and it should be key during this week. In the bullish scenario, a breakout above the 1.1225 level will expose the pre-Brexit high to be tested on a mid-term basis.

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10053

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Forex trading plan for August 16

On Monday US dollar continued feeling the negative consequences of disappointing US macroeconomic data released on Friday. Although US dollar index managed to recover from the day’s lows on Friday, it started the new week under pressure. America will release inflation figures at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday: economists think that weak July retails sales reading may affect the nation’s CPI. Lower inflation means that the Fed will be in no hurry to raise rates – bearish factor for the greenback. The expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December declined from 45% to 41%. As a result, we get an environment, in which dollar is weaker against both safe haven and commodity currencies. Other events in the US economic calendar on Tuesday include building permits, housing starts and industrial production.

EUR/USD is supported and has some limited potential for growth (20-day MA went above the 200-day MA, though longer-term moving averages remain almost horizontal that means the lack of directional pulls for the pair). Despite the euro area’s weak economic data, there’s demand for the euro’s because of the region’s current account surplus. Resistance is at 1.1190 and 1.1225 (100-day MA). Support is at 1.1135 and 1.1100. German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment indexes will be released on Tuesday at 09:00 GMT.

USD/JPY is testing lower levels. The picture is negative, although the bearish momentum isn’t strong. Support is at 100.50 ahead of 100.00 and 99.77. Resistance lies at 101.60. Japan’s economy showed annual growth of 0.2% in Q2, well below expectations for 0.7 % growth. Yet, the news didn’t have any significant impact on the market – it seems that traders would be surprised if the nation’s economic growth accelerated. The key thing is that for now traders don’t expect much from the Bank of Japan, so the yen remains in demand.

GBP/USD fell below 1.30 last week and is vulnerable for decline to 1.2847 in the coming days. Pound started the new week consolidating in 1.2905/40 area. There are some rumors that Brexit may be delayed, but this may bring not a relief, but uncertainty to sterling. On Tuesday the UK will release a block of inflation figures at 08:30 GMT. In addition, the Bank of England will conduct another bond purchase auction. Last Tuesday the auction didn’t attract enough sellers, and the pound declined. This time volatility will likely increase as well.

Riskier assets were supported by big gains in Chinese stocks which rose to 8-month highs on the expectations that the nation’s authorities will increase stimulus because of weaker economic data. In addition, oil prices remained supported by comments about potential OPEC agreement, though production remains high and growing.

AUD/USD went a bit up on Monday after Friday’s selloff. Increase above 0.7676 (July 15 high) is needed to open the way up to the next resistance at 0.7740. Below 0.7650 Aussie will slide to 0.7600. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT.

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10070