My forex journey

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug. 28

EUR/USD: hold short from $1.3412 with a target at $1.3127 and a stop at $1.3219

GBP/USD: look to sell

USD/JPY: hold long from 103.54 with a target at 105.45 and a stop at 103.42

USD/CHF: hold long from 0.9121 with a target at 0.9226 and a stop at 0.9122

AUD/USD: possibly buy

USD/CAD: hold long from 1.0857 with target at 1.1053 and a stop at 1.0795

NZD/USD: hold short from 0.8400 with target at 0.8282 and a stop at 0.8440

EUR/GBP: possibly sell

EUR/JPY: hold short from 137.10 with a target of 136.37 and a stop at 137.45

EUR/CHF: possibly sell

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Trade Ideas

EUR/USD edged up to $1.3150. On Wednesday the single currency got support on the news that the fire in Ukraine ceased. As for the euro area itself, retail sales contracted by 0.4%. The pair tested levels above the 100-hour MA, but some vague comments from Ukraine won’t be able to drive euro up for long, and more downside is likely ahead of the ECB’s meeting. However, the risk that the ECB will disappoint EUR-bears at the press conference is rather high. The spikes up during Draghi’s comments seem quite likely. Important US data releases will add to the volatility. Support is at $1.3130, $1.3105 and $1.3085. Resistance is provided by the last week’s minimums ($1.3160), the 200-hour MA ($1.3173), the H4 Ichimoku Cloud ($1.3200) and last week’s high ($1.3220).
- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2014-09-03/25689-trading-plan-september-4#sthash.etYBUp8W.dpuf

Key events to watch on Thursday

AUD: Retail Sales, Trade Balance

JPY: Band of Japan Policy Meeting, Press Conference

GBP: Bank of England Policy Meeting

EUR: ECB Policy Meeting, Press Conference

USD: NFP from ADP, Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

CAD: Trade Balance
- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2014-09-03/25689-trading-plan-september-4#sthash.etYBUp8W.dpuf

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Events to watch on Tuesday (Sept. 9)

AUD: NAB Business Confidence, Home Loans

GBP: BOE Governor Carney Speaks, Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance, NIESR GDP Estimate

CAD: Housing Starts

On Monday EUR/USD has been trading flat. Data from the euro area was mixed. The single currency is supported by higher EUR/GBP. Releases due tomorrow aren’t very important, and the pair may continue lacking drivers. Resistance is at $1.2955 and $1.3000. Support is at $1.2920, $1.2900 and $1.2850. Keep an eye on the news: Fitch says that ECB’s actions will help to restore economic growth and inflation. ECB’s representative said that more than one ECB member voted against ABS plan.

http://www.fbs.com/forex-community

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

9 September 2014, 11:16 Comments: 0
How do large banks trade EUR/USD?

Barclays: holds SHORT from 1.3280, Take Profit 1.2815, Stop loss 1.3438 (Open on Aug 21)

CitiFX: holds SHORT from 1.2908, Take Profit 1.2200, Stop loss 1.3200 (Open on Sep 8)

Danske Bank: holds SHORT from 1.2972, Take Profit 1.2788, Stop loss 1.2961 (Open on Sep 5)

Credit Suisse: holds SHORT from 1.2950, Take Profit 1.2790, Stop loss 1.2990 (Open on Sep 9)

Morgan Stanley: SELL LIMIT at1.3040, Take Profit 1.2500, Stop loss 1.3140 (Open on Sep 5)

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

GBP/USD: Trade ideas for September 11

Felipe Erazo

The GBPUSD is trying to form a bullish pattern above the support level of 1.6196, where is located the 50.0 Fibo retracement level, in addition to the resistance level of 1.6230 is very strong.

However, the GBPUSD could fill the bearish gap where is located the 200 EMA (Green line). If the GBPUSD enhance a pullback at current levels, the next target would be the support level of 1.6052. The RSI indicator stays in positive territory.

Trading recommendations: Place sell orders at current levels with take profit at 1.6052, with stop loss at 1.6240.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

FBS: trading plan for Sep. 16

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH ON TUESDAY

AUD: RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks (00:00 GMT), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (01:30 GMT)
JPY: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks (05:30 GMT)
GBP: CPI (08:30 GMT)
EUR: German & Euro Zone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment (09:00 GMT)
CAD: Manufacturing Sales (12:30 GMT), BOC Gov Poloz Speaks (16:45 GMT)
USD: PPI (12:30 GMT)

TRADE IDEAS

EUR/USD showed a series of higher lows. However, the bears are quite persistent, and the pair once again turned down from the 200-hour MA. Euro met resistance of the Ichimoku Cloud on H4 and may test the lower Bollinger band at $1.2890. Below this level euro will be vulnerable for a slide to $1.2850 – this is our base scenario. Forecasts for the euro zone’s data due tomorrow are negative. A return above $1.2962 is needed to switch the outlook to bullish with $1.3015 in sight.

GBP/USD managed to close the last week’s gap, but faced resistance at $1.6275 on Monday. Market participants remain nervous ahead of the Scotland’s Independence referendum on Thursday. Don’t miss the inflation data on Tuesday: UK annualized CPI growth is forecasted to slow from 1.6% to 1.5%. Negative surprise could resume the GBP selloff. However, hawkish BOE monetary policy minutes on Wednesday could render some support to the currency.

USD/JPY consolidates slightly below the Friday’s 107.30 high. The BOJ Governor Kuroda will hold a speech on Tuesday. However, this week trader’s attention will be glued to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday – disappointing tone of the Fed will trigger a strong bearish correction. Support lies at 106.60, 106.00 and 105.70.

AUD/USD opened today with a 30-pip gap down on poor data from China and Australia, but then moved higher after finding support in the $0.9000 area. Tomorrow Aussie will trade under impact of the RBA minutes. We view the downtrend as strong, but see some room for correction. Resistance is at $0.9060, $0.9100 ahead of $0.9180. The next downside target is at $0.8950.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Trading plan for Sep. 17
Trade ideas

Tomorrow will be a volatile day as the Federal Reserve meets to set policy. There’s the risk for USD to weaken if the Fed doesn’t sound more hawkish.

EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of big events later this week (FOMC tomorrow and the ECB’s TLTRO on Thursday). The Ichimoku Cloud keeps providing resistance at H4. The pair’s trading range has been getting narrower and narrower. We have a sell stop at $1.2900 targeting $1.2810. If the FOMC meeting activates a short squeeze, we’d put a buy stop at $1.3020 targeting $1.3100. Don’t forget that news trading may be a risky business.

GBP/USD is expected to have a volatile day tomorrow. Unemployment in the UK is expected to contract, while the average earning index – to increase. Meanwhile, claimant count contraction is forecasted to slow down. Don’t miss the BOE meeting minutes – hawkish tone will support the sterling. If GBP/USD overcomes $1.6300, it will test $1.6450.

For AUD/USD we have in mind long from $0.9070 to $0.9110. If Aussie fails to overcome $0.9070 will be selling targeting levels back at $0.9000. USD/CHF may be vulnerable for $0.9260. USD/JPY may correct towards 106.00.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH ON WEDNESDAY

GBP: Unemployment data, MPC meeting minutes (08:30 GMT)

EUR: Final CPI (09:00 GMT)

USD: Core CPI (12:30 GMT), FOMC Statement & Economic Projections (18:00 GMT), FOMC Press Conference (18:00 GMT)

NZD: GDP (22:45 GMT)

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Trading plan for Sep. 22

This weekend there will be a G20 meeting devoted to many of the global problems like Russian-Ukraine crisis. This may have an impact on the market’s risk sentiment, especially during the Asian trading session.

AUD/USD is consolidating between $0.9000 and $0.8930. Watch for a break of this range. New Zealand will release July Westpac Consumer Sentiment index early on Monday. Given the recent strong GDP figures, we can get a positive surprise for NZD/USD from this size.

As for EUR/USD watch for Mario Draghi’s speech at 13:00 GMT. Draghi will probably try so say something positive about TLRTO, providing some support to EUR/USD on the intraday. We are selling euro on the increases.

GBP/USD retraced from the $1.6520 resistance and returned below the $1.6400 mark. The technical picture remains bullish as long as the pair holds above the $1.6300 support.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2425

EUR/USD corrected up to $1.2900. Tomorrow watch German Ifo business climate data at 08:00 GMT. So far data from Germany have been discouraging, and we have little reason to expect a bullish release this time. If the reading is significantly lower, euro will fall to $1.2810. The next resistance is at $1.2930 and if this level is broken in case of the positive news, euro will probably rise to $1.3000 – a place to enter short positions.

GBP/USD rose to the upper border of the Tuesday’s $1.6300/6400 range in the early US trade. Daily close above this mark would provoke further growth with a target of $1.6520/30. This is the 55-week moving average that capped the post-referendum rally. Support is seen in the $1.6300/6275 area.

USD/JPY bounced from the 108.20 support. This is the lower boundary of the September ascending channel. We review the current dips as a good buying opportunity with a target of 110 yen and a stop at 107.60.

AUD/USD spiked up on Tuesday: initially Aussie rose to $0.8930 on good data from China, but then reversed down on concerns about Australian economy and geopolitical tensions. The pair recoiled down from resistance line and may test $0.8835 on the downside. Resistance is at $0.8930 and $0.8985. The pair may be moved by the RBA Financial Stability Review (01:30 GMT).

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2800 (large), $1.2850 (large), $1.2860 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6300 (large), $1.6395/1.6400 (large), $1.6450 (large), $1.6500;

USD/JPY: 108.80 (large), 109.25 (large), 109.50 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1000 (large), 1.1060 (large), 1.1100, 1.1200 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8850, $0.8960, $0.9140;

NZD/USD: $0.8100, $0.8155, $0.8200;

EUR/GBP: 0.7870, 0.7935, 0.7960, 0.7965.