My forex journey

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Credit Suisse: buy GBP/USD on dips

Strategists at Credit Suisse expect the 1.7059/52 area to limit the losses in GBP/USD. Next strong support is seen at 1.7008/1.6998 (8.2% retracement of the May/July rally).

They expect buying to resume above the 1.7000 area. However, a break below could see weakness extend to 1.6952/38 (55-day MA). "Above 1.7145/52 is needed to look to the 1.7181 early July high. Above here is needed to confirm a resumption of the uptrend to potential trend resistance at 1.7280 next, and eventually our long-held medium-term target at 1.7330/32", strategists say.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD fell below $1.3500 and renewed this year’s minimum below $1.3460. Euro buyers were clearly in the minority as traders await EU decision on the sanctions against Russia. The single currency is now vulnerable for a decline to $1.3423 (200-week MA). Still, on the H4 chart isn’t confirmed by MACD, while RSI shows oversold. In addition, US inflation wasn’t as high as expected. This may mean that the pair could try to return to $1.3500. Tomorrow there will be nothing of importance in the economic calendar of both the euro area and the US – investors may start making predictions about the euro zone’s PMIs and German IFO on Thursday and Friday. As France and Germany have strong economic ties with Russian companies, they may be reluctant to proceed with strong sanctions aimed at the whole sectors of Russian economy. Still, the EU will surely take some steps.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

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[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD: there's still the chance of $1.3500

Analysts at CMC Markets expect EUR/USD to climb to $1.35, completing a second corrective phase, before turning lower for a third time to end an Elliott Wave chart pattern that began in May.

Analysts at Westpac also think that the pair may recover towards “the breakdown point at $1.3500” as US non-farm payrolls disappointed many traders.

Analysts at SEB Bank target $1.3477/$1.3508 as long as EUR/USD is trading above $1.3378.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Credit Suisse holds GBP/USD short

Credit Suisse maintains a short GBP/USD position from 1.6885 with a stop at 1.6957 and a target at 1.6700. They look for a uptrend to resume from the 1.6698/93 area (May/June lows and 38.2% retracement of the November 2013/July 2014 rise).

Resistance is seen at 1.6894 and 1.6930. In their view, the downside risks remain in place below 1.6960 (trendline resistance from the mid-July high and the falling 21-day MA). Rise above 1.7003 is needed to turn the trend higher again.

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

FBS: trade recomendation for EUR/USD

Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst

The pair has found support at 1.3335. Double test of this level and a following bounce looked inspiring for the bulls, who pushed the price up to 1.3400 on Friday.

Ichimoku. The bearish H4 trend is over as the "dead cross" was cancelled. At the same time the prices fail to fix inside of the Cloud for now.

The hourly picture looks a little bit more optimistic: bulls fixed inside of the positive area, above the Cloud. Ichimoku indicator turned bullish. We would view a fix above 1.3400 as a new buying signal.

Technical levels: support – 1.3390, 1.3400; resistance – 1.3450.

Trade recommendation:

1. Buy — 1.3400; SL — 1.3380; TP1 — 1.3450; TP2 — 1.3480.

1. Sell — 1.3380; SL — 1.3400; TP1 — 1.3335.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2062

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Trading plan for August 14

Key market drivers for August 14 (Thursday)

NZD: Business NZ Manufacturing Index (22:30 GMT on Wed), Retail Sales (22:45 GMT on Wed)
JPY: Core Machinery Orders (23:50 GMT)
AUD: MI Inflation Expectations (1:00 GMT)
EUR: French Prelim GDP (5:30 GMT), German Prelim GDP (6:00 GMT), French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls (6:45 GMT), PPI (7:15 GMT), ECB Monthly Bulletin (8:00 GMT), Final CPI, Flash GDP (9:00 GMT)
CAD: New Houses Price Index (12:30 GMT)
USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices (12:30 GMT)

Trade ideas

EUR/USD went a bit lower on the decline in the euro area’s industrial production, but then jumped to the levels above $1.3400 as US retail sales were weaker than expected (we should blame lower auto and gasoline sales for that). The pair’s now above the H4 Ichimoku Cloud. Still the pair’s jump was a bit too quick. It has reached the upper edge of its recent trading range. With a bunch of important euro zone’s data on the agenda tomorrow, the odds are that the current growth won’t be sustainable, so a trade you may try is selling. Resistance lies at $1.3430, $1.3450 and $1.3475. Downside target lies at $1.3340 (lower Bollinger band on H4). A close below $1.3335 is needed for another leg down.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2094

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

EUR/USD fell to the levels around $1.3240 before correcting a bit up, to $1.3275 and consolidating below this level. Yesterday the pair closed below the support of the descending wedge which used to be in place since April. The oversold pair may try to gain a bit more, though a return above $1.3295 is needed to mark the temporary low. Further resistance is at $1.3330, $1.3375 and $1.3400, while on the downside targets remain at $1.3225, $1.3200 и $1.3105.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2158

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

NZD/USD: Trade ideas for August 26

The NZDUSD has had a significant drop from the level of 0.8429, so now this pair is trying to consolidate below the support level of 0.8319, which coincided with the 61.8 Fibo expansion level in H1 chart.

If the NZDUSD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall until the support level of 0.8281 due to that this pair has been forming a bearish pattern since last Friday by adding the fact that the NZDUSD remains strong in the bearish trend below the 200 EMA (green line).

The RSI indicator is in oversold zone that could indicate that the NZDUSD will start to perform corrective movements in favor of the current trend

Trading recommendations: Hold your current sell orders in the NZDUSD until the support level of 0.8281.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2182

 

[Syazfirul Enterprise]

Market News
27 August 2014, 08:04 Comments: 0
Key option levels (Aug. 27)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3150, $1.3200 (large), $1.3215, $1.3300 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6500 (large), $1.6600;

AUD/USD: $0.9220, $0.9250, $0.9275, $0.9305;

USD/CAD: 1.1000 (large), 1.1025 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8365, $0.8425 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7940/50, 0.8000.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1650