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[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.09.10: GBP: British Pound has been traded in the same pattern for the third day

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling is traded with some decrease on Thursday repeating the pattern of the last two trading sessions.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD and is going up giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has not formed a clear signal on Thursday.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5650 the pair will go to 1.5680 and 1.5725. If the level of 1.5580 is exceeded, sellers’ targets will become the levels of 1.5530 and 1.5500.
According to the data released earlier number of people who receive unemployment benefit in Great Britain increased by 2.3 thousand in August while reduction by 3 thousand was predicted. Unemployment rate remained at the level of 7.8%.
Low data only confirmed general index trend, however it was not significant enough to make the GBP go down.
As it became known on Wednesday number of unemployed in Great Britain increased by 2.3 thousand in August to 1.47 million people while market expected reduction by 3 thousand.
The data released earlier showed that according to the RICS estimations the UK houses prices index declined by 32% in August against reduction by 8% in July. Thus the index hit its lowest since the summer of 2009. However other statistic was more positive: consumer confidence Nationwide increased to 61 in August against the previous level of 56. Expectations index rose from 77 to 84 which was the first growth factor for the last 5 months.
The Bank of England interest rate is at the level of 0.50% per annum now where it remains for five consecutive months.
Worth noting that although the UK indicators do not demonstrate significant downswing, a slight decline which is under way a month after month is obvious: if this tendency maintains the British economy will end up in the complex situation.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.09.10: CHF: Swiss Franc regains after the fall however remains within the range

Swiss Franc rate is traded in the range today at the Forex currency market however it is getting stronger. Traders do not hurry to buy the currency allowing it to regain after the fall yesterday in advance of the Swiss National Bank meeting today.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF however it goes up slowly giving grounds to buy the pair. Stochastic Oscillator failed to identify a signal so far, being in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: if the pair exceeds the level of 1.0045, the movement will go to 1.0090 and 1.0140. If the current trend maintains it seems that nothing will happen before the CSHB meeting.
The Swiss National Bank meeting will be held today – it is expected that regulator’ monetary policy will remain unchanged and it is possible to combat inflation with the more humble tools.
It became known earlier that investors’ optimism index ZEW in Switzerland declined to -5.1 in September against the previous level of 9.1.
Taking into account the latest not very positive statistics (it became known earlier that producer prices index in Switzerland rose by 0.1% against the forecast of growth by 0.3% and consumer inflation amounted to 0.3% y/y) market believes that the CNB will commence monetary policy tightening in the nearest future, although at the moment everything will be left unchanged.
Swiss economy seems to be stable: GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country.
Investments into the CHF are becoming increasingly attractive for the Forex investors: market realizes that the SHF does not constitute a menace at the moment and is not planning to do it in the nearest future. The fact that investors are averse to risks at Forex counts in favor of CHF at Forex – public debts as well as budget deficit is at a low level in Switzerland; which is another merit of the CHF.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.09.10: AUD: Australian Dollar sales rate is not high; currency is looking for catalysts

Trades are sluggish and inactive for the Australian Dollar at the Forex currency market today: due to the fact that interest rate in the neighboring New Zealand was left unchanged and considering Japanese situation traders do not hurry to take risk, although basically the Aussie has a chance to grow.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD however it is going down giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Thursday, being in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9340 bears will go to 0.9300 and 0.9250.
According to the Australian data released today inflation expectations totaled 3.1% in August.
Statistics released yesterday did not make traders more optimistic – consumer confidence index fell by 5.0% in September against the rise by 5% in August. Consumer confidence declines – according to Westpac, the growth of August was leveled down by today’s report however the July level of 11% still remains inaccessible. The weak data of September indicates the necessity of being prudent: the rate remains unchanged for a very long time; however the indicator reduces reflecting the economic processes in the country.
It became known last week that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept current interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.50% per annum as markets had expected. There was also nothing new in Mr. Stevens’ comments: he stressed that the world economic outlook is still vague although the Australian economic recovery rate is quite acceptable.
According to the data released earlier GDP level in Australia rose to the maximum of the last three years in QII demonstrating consolidation by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.9%. Previous index value was at the level of 0.7%. Economists believe that Chinese demand for iron ore is an activator of the Australian economic growth. New interest rate increase hardly threatens Australia. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.50%per annum now. The main and official version of the last RBA meeting is as follows –current level of the inflation decline made it possible not to undertake drastic measures to tighten monetary policy.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.09.10: JPY: Yen is not left in peace

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate is going up a little on Thursday after dramatic fall yesterday caused by the Bank of Japan intervention; however the JPY buyers are still hesitant – the country’s authorities announced earlier that intervention in to the trades have not been completed.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY and is going up giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a pair sell signal being in the overbought area.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 85.50 the pair will go to 86.10 and 86.30. If the level of 85.20 is exceeded, sellers’ targets will be 84.60 and 84.20.
Something that had been expected for a long time at Forex happened at last yesterday: it was currency intervention although Japanese authorities stress that intervention into the trades has not been completed. The exact amount of the Yen sales is still unknown however market believes that that the regulator has sold the currency for about $1.20 billion.
The Bank of Japan representative Noda stated that intervention would not have significant effect on the monetary policy because policy is determined by economics and its indices. Noda emphasized that today’s regulator’s efforts would stabilize situation at the financial areas.
The head of the Bank Shirakawa also made a statement in which he noted that authorities should closely monitor the downside risks to the national economy; the politician gave an indication that the Bank’s further intervention is probable.
Naoto Khan won elections and became the head of the Democratic Party, retaining the leader’s chair. In response the Yen surged to a new peak as Khan is not so ardent supporter of the currency intervention as his rival Ozawa. The events today showed that investors’ joy was premature.
On Thursday Shirakawa noted that intervention would help to appease Forex market; currency market as well as stock market is unstable although the economic demonstrates moderate recovery.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.09.10: CAD: Canadian Dollar gathers strength

At the Forex currency market on Thursday the Canadian Dollar rate continues to demonstrate slight growth.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CAD and continues to descend which gives ground for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.
Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets today could become the levels of 1.0240 and 1.0200.
According to the deputy of the Bank of Canada governor Timothy Lane the economic recovery rate in Canada is more moderate now compared with the previous quarters. The county’s economy grows only due to the public and private spendings while actual GDP is still not far from its pre-crisis level.
In his view revitalization of the country is uneven and economic activity level is lower than expected.
He also reaffirmed the earlier GDP forecast for Canada noting that expected economic growth this year is about 3.5%, in 2011 –about 2.9%.
At the meeting last week the Bank of Canada decided to raise interest rate level to 1% per annum (+25 basis points). Although the decision was entirely predictable Forex market responded to this by buying up CAD, ignoring monetary politicians accompanying comments that the situation in the economy is vague and uncertain.
In the release the Bank of Canada emphasizes that national economy growth rate slowed down in QII this year although the process is within the forecast scope. The Bank gave an indication that although some stimulation of the financial system will be continued, further monetary policy tightening as well as rate rise is not excluded.
Statistics released in September did not please investors a lot: thus number of begun constructions in Canada reduced by 3% m/m in August while new houses foundations totaled 183 thousand. If the situation does not improve in the nearest few months, the CAD will be under significant pressure.
The Canadian trade balance deficit increased to 2.7 billion CAD in August against 1.8 billion in July. It was caused by the exports volume reduction which traditionally supports economy.
The released statistics is weak – it is too weak to deter the Bank of Canada from the interest rate increase in the nearest future if only monetary politicians detect really disturbing signals in the statistics.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.09.10: Euro continues its steady growth

The pair EUR/USD is traded upward at the Forex currency market on Friday morning however the Dollar fell to the lows of five weeks. Although German news this morning did not come up to expectations, investors estimate the European economic situation as positive.
By 10.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3125 against closing session level of 1.3077 yesterday.
As it became known this morning producer price index in Germany remained unchanged in August while analytics expected growth by 0.3%.
Forex awaits the U.S statistics to be released this afternoon in particular consumer confidence index from the U.S. Michigan University.
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3040-1.3190 on Friday trading session.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.09.10: GBP: British Pound continues to grow supported by external positive factors

There is interesting development of the British Pound Sterling at the Forex currency market – investors take account of the UK poor statistics however optimistic external background seems to be much more important than negative domestic factor.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD and is going up confirming a pair previous buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.
Forex recommendations: buyers’ targets today will be the levels of 1.5740 and 1.5775.
Statistics released earlier did not please market. The UK retail sales data was bad: it demonstrated decline by 0.5% while investors expected growth by 0.3% in August.
It is an alarm bell for the economy: it indicates in particular that people feel cautious and alerted regarding their spendings as the British economy outlooks are still very uncertain.
The data released earlier was not too optimistic either: number of people who received unemployment benefit in Great Britain increased by 2.3 thousand in August while reduction by 3 thousand was predicted. Unemployment rate remained at the level of 7.8%.
As it became known on Wednesday number of unemployed in Great Britain increased by 2.3 thousand in August to 1.47 million people while market expected reduction by 3 thousand.
The data released earlier showed that according to the RICS estimations the UK houses prices index declined by 32% in August against reduction by 8% in July. Thus the index hit its lowest since the summer of 2009. However other statistic was more positive: consumer confidence Nationwide increased to 61 in August against the previous level of 56. Expectations index rose from 77 to 84 which was the first growth factor for the last 5 months.
The Bank of England interest rate is at the level of 0.50% per annum now where it remains for five consecutive months.
Worth noting that although the UK indicators do not demonstrate significant downswing, however slight decline which is under way a month after month is obvious: if this tendency maintains the British economy will end up in the complex situation.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.09.10: CHF: Swiss Franc determines movement direction

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is close to the opening levels making no headway on Friday: after the fall yesterday caused by the Swiss National Bank comments that the currency needs catalysts.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/CHF and is going up giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator gives a pair sell signal today being in the overbought area.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown of the level of 1.0180 the pair will go to 1.0220 and 1.0270. If the pair breaks down the level of 1.0130, sellers’ targets will be 1.0090 and 1.0060.
Yesterday the Franc declined significantly at Forex due to the bad news pressure from the SNB. Thus at the meeting yesterday the Bank decided to keep interest rate at the level of 0.25% for three months. However the major impact on the CHF had another factor: the Bank announced that with the current interest rate inflation level in the country would amount to 0.7% this year and 0.3% in 2011. By the year of 2012 inflation level will hit the level of 1.2%.
Thus indicated inflation level makes it possible for the SNB to leave monetary policy unchanged which affected the Franc’s rate.
Swiss economy seems to be stable: GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country.
It became known earlier that investors’ optimism index ZEW in Switzerland declined to -5.1 in September against the previous level of 9.1.
Meanwhile investments into the CHF are becoming increasingly attractive for the Forex investors: market realizes that the SHF does not constitute a menace at the moment and is not planning to do it in the nearest future. The fact that investors are averse to risks at Forex counts in favor of CHF at Forex – public debts as well as budget deficit is at a low level in Switzerland; which is another merit of the CHF.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.09.10: AUD: Australian Dollar grows steadily on Friday

The Australian Dollar rate continued the growth at the Forex currency market on Friday which had been interrupted earlier this week– after two days trading in the narrow range which was caused by the external background the Aussie consolidates again today and tests local highs.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is going up, confirming a pair previous buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Friday.
Forex recommendations: if the current external background maintains the pair will go to 0.9500 and 0.9550.
It became known last week that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept current interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.50% per annum as market had expected. There was also nothing new in Mr. Stevens’ comments: he stressed that the world economic outlook is still vague although the Australian economic recovery rate is quite acceptable.
According to the data released earlier GDP level in Australia rose to the maximum of the last three years in QII demonstrating consolidation by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.9%. Previous index value was at the level of 0.7%. Economists believe that Chinese demand for iron ore is an activator of the Australian economic growth. New interest rate increase hardly threatens Australia. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.50%per annum now. The main and official version of the last RBA meeting is as follows –current level of the inflation decline made it possible not to undertake drastic measures to tighten monetary policy.
Statistics this week was not too optimistic for the AUD at Forex: inflation expectations totaled 3.1% in August. Consumer confidence index fell by 5.0% in September against the rise by 5% in August. Consumer confidence declines – according to Westpac, the growth of August was leveled down by today’s report however the July level of 11% still remains inaccessible. The weak data of September indicates the necessity of being prudent: the rate remains unchanged for a very long time; however the indicator reduces reflecting the economic processes in the country.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.09.10: JPY: Yen continues to retreat at the end of the week

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate continues to retreat under the pressure of the Japanese monetary politicians who carried out intervention this week aimed at preventing the JPY further consolidation.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY however it slowed down the growth pace and is ready to decline, forming a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.
Forex recommendations: off the market. In case of the bearish trend formation sellers’ targets will become the levels of 84.60 and 84.20.
Finance Minister Noda noted today that although different countries interpret intervention differently he believes that his country’s actions are appropriate; however he agrees that the whole background of the process should be explained.
Currency intervention conducted by the Bank of Japan this week was intended to reduce significant fluctuation at the currency market however it would not help the country to curb deflation
Noda noted also that China should continue to work out currency reforms.
The head of the Bank Shirakawa made a statement in which he noted that authorities should closely monitor the downside risks to the national economy; the politician gave an indication that the Bank’s further intervention is probable. On Thursday Shirakawa noted that intervention would help to appease Forex market; currency market as well as stock market is unstable although the economic demonstrates moderate recovery.
Naoto Khan won elections and became the head of the Democratic Party, retaining the leader’s chair. In response the Yen surged to a new peak as Khan is not so ardent supporter of the currency intervention as his rival Ozawa. The events today showed that investors’ joy was premature.