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[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 14.09.10: GBP: British Pound Sterling goes down on Tuesday due to weak statistics

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate goes down on Tuesday after brief recovery yesterday. Sale was caused by another block of weak statistics.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is near the signal line and is not giving a clear signal today. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a pair sell signal on Tuesday being in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendation: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5470 the pair will go to 1.5550 and 1.5590. If the pair exceeds the level of 1.5370, sellers’ targets will be 1.5320 and 1.5280.
As the data released today showed houses prices index in Great Britain fell by 32% in August against the decline by 8% in July as per RICS estimation. Thus the index hit its lowest since the summer of 2009.
However other statistic was more positive: consumer confidence Nationwide increased to 61 in August against the previous level of 56. Expectations index rose from 77 to 84 which was the first growth factor for the last 5 months.
According to the data released earlier UK houses prices declined by 0.3% m/m (+1.5% y/y) against the previous fall by 0.1% m/m as per Hometrack. Thus the situation in the housing sector is getting worse. As per the Rightmove report, number of people who buy a house for the first time can decline to the new low even before the end of this year – according to the survey the number of those who planned and bought a house in QIII 2010 amounted to 22.2% against 30.8% a quarter earlier. If experts’ forecast justifies, the situation in the UK housing market will become more complicated; analytics note that there is ground for concern even now.
As became known last week production in the UK manufacturing sector increased by 0.3% on monthly basis (+4.9% y/y) in July. Industrial production rose by 0.3% as well, while the rise by 0.4% was expected.
Earlier the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.50% per annum, volume of the assets redemption program was also kept unchanged in the amount of 200 billion pounds sterling.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 14.09.10: CHF: Swiss Franc continues to grow

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to grow – Franc looks increasingly attractive following the release of the stable data yesterday.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and is going down giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Tuesday.
Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets will be the levels of 0.9970 and 0.9910 today.
It became known yesterday that producer price index in Switzerland increased by 0.1% against the forecast growth by 0.3%; consumer inflation amounted to 0.3% y/y.
The Swiss National Bank meeting will be held on Thursday – it is expected that regulator’ monetary policy will remain unchanged and anti-inflation battle can be carried out with the more humble tools.
Swiss statistics released earlier was not the most positive: number of unemployed in the country increased by 0.55 thousand in August, it became the first growth rate in 6 months. Altogether number of unemployed has reduced by 33.5 thousand since the beginning of the year. Unemployment rate remained at the level of 3.6% in August.
Swiss economy seems to be stable: GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country. Investments into the CHF are getting more and more attractive for the Forex investors: market realizes that the SHF does not constitute a menace at the moment and is not planning to do it in the nearest future. The fact that investors are averse to risks at Forex counts in favor of CHF at Forex – public debts as well as budget deficit is at a low level in Switzerland; which is another merit of the CHF.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 14.09.10: JPY: Yen breaks new records

Japanese Yen continues to be the main news breaker at the Forex currency market. This morning the currency established a new, 15 year record in pairing with the USD, rising to the level of 83.07.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY and is going down, confirming a pair previous sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Tuesday.
Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets today will be the levels of 82.70 and 82.50.
Naoto Khan won elections today and became the head of the Democratic Party, retaining the leader’s chair. In response the Yen surged to a new peak as Khan is not so ardent supporter of the currency intervention as his rival Ozawa.
Earlier Ozawa, a DPR member, stated that the Bank of Japan should respond immediately to what is happening at the currency market, despite the questionable success of the sole currency intervention. Earlier Ozawa noted that the possibility of the currency intervention by the Bank of Japan should not be excluded– at the same time it is required to set clear objectives for the monetary system reforms. The politician noted also that the Bank of Japan has sufficient reserves to overcome deflation even on its own. Earlier he came out with a statement regarding economy and expensive Yen: he noted last week that it is necessary to halt the rise of the Yen; however he did not suggest any means to do it, specifying only that resources of the Bank of Japan in this respect are limited. In general Ozawa stressed that the Yen’s growth is not that crucial in the long term prospects.
However market believes that although intervention possibility reduced it does not amount to blank: Finance Minister Noda stated yesterday that authorities will adhere to the relevant measures if required.
The further bearish target for the pair USD/JPY at Forex is 82.00.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 14.09.10: AUD: Australian Dollar’s rebound today is pretty logical

At the Forex currency market on Tuesday the Australian Dollar rate is traded downward following four sessions of growth.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD however it goes down, giving ground for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Tuesday.
Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets today will be the levels of 0.9250 and 0.9200.
Worth noting that the economy still provides support to the AUD – labour market at least.
According to the data released earlier GDP level in Australia rose to the maximum of the last three years in QII demonstrating consolidation by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.9%. Previous index value was at the level of 0.7%. Economists believe that Chinese demand for iron ore is an activator of the Australian economic growth. New interest rate increase hardly threatens Australia. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.50%per annum now. The main and official version of the last RBA meeting is as follows –current level of the inflation decline made it possible not to undertake drastic measures to tighten monetary policy.
It became known last week that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept current interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.50% per annum as markets had expected. There was also nothing new in Mr. Stevens’ comments: he stressed that the world economic outlook is still vague although the Australian economic recovery rate is quite acceptable.
The rate will be maintained at the current level for the five consecutive months and investors do not expect it to change until the beginning of the next year.
We would note that AUD buyers can be back at Forex

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 15.09.10: Euro soared up amid positive external environment

The pair EUR/USD is traded near 1.30 at the Forex currency market this morning – the U.S positive statistics released last night and the Asian news today caused this rapid growth.
By 10.25 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2977 against closing session level of 1.2997 yesterday.
It became known yesterday that the U.S. retail sales level increased by 0.4%% in August while market had expected the growth by 0.3%. This morning it became known that The Bank of Japan had carried out intervention – the Finance Ministry asked the CB to take measures to prevent the rise of Yen to the detriment of the economy. The volume of intervention was not specified and the authorities stated that interference in the currency market has not yet completed.
The day is going to be eventful in terms of statistics – Eurozone will be traditionally in the center of attention today than in the afternoon the USA will pick up the baton
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be the range of 1.2810-1.3010 on Wednesday trading session.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 15.09.10: GBP: Pound goes down slightly; investors determine further trend

At the Forex currency market on Wednesday the British Pound retreats slightly after the growth yesterday. There is no fundamentally positive factor for the GBP yet, only external background helps buyers.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD however it started to go down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Wednesday however this signal is not very clear.
Forex recommendations: off the market. In case of breakdown at the level of 1.5500 the pair will go to 1.5540 and 1.5590. If the level of 1.5470 is exceeded, sellers’ targets will be the levels of 1.5420 and 1.5370.
As it became known on Wednesday number of unemployed in Great Britain increased by 2.3 thousand in August to 1.47 million people while market expected reduction by 3 thousand.
The data released earlier showed that according to the RICS estimations the UK houses prices index declined by 32% in August against reduction by 8% in July. Thus the index hit its lowest since the summer of 2009.
However other statistic was more positive: consumer confidence Nationwide increased to 61 in August against the previous level of 56. Expectations index rose from 77 to 84 which was the first growth factor for the last 5 months.
It became known last week that production in the UK manufacturing sector increased by 0.3% on monthly basis (+4.9% y/y) in July. Industrial production rose by 0.3% as well, while the rise by 0.4% was expected.
Earlier the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.50% per annum, volume of the assets redemption program was also kept unchanged in the amount of 200 billion pounds sterling.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 15.09.10: CHF: Swiss Franc pulls back from the peak

Swiss Franc rate is traded downward at the Forex currency market on Wednesday – the currency pulls back after the sharp rise on Tuesday.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF however it goes up giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal being in the oversold zone.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0040 the pair will go to 1.0090 and 1.0125.
Yesterday the pair was in the area of the ten months lows amid investors’ interest in currency. At the same time traders continued to ignore Swiss weak statistics.
We would recall: it became known yesterday that producer price index in Switzerland increased by 0.1% against the forecast growth by 0.3%; consumer inflation amounted to 0.3% y/y.
Swiss statistics released before that was not the most positive: number of unemployed in the country increased by 0.55 thousand in August, it became the first growth rate in 6 months. Altogether number of unemployed has reduced by 33.5 thousand since the beginning of the year. Unemployment rate remained at the level of 3.6% in August.
Swiss economy seems to be stable: GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country.
Investments into the CHF are becoming increasingly attractive for the Forex investors: market realizes that the SHF does not constitute a menace at the moment and is not planning to do it in the nearest future. The fact that investors are averse to risks at Forex counts in favor of CHF at Forex – public debts as well as budget deficit is at a low level in Switzerland; which is another merit of the CHF. The Swiss National Bank meeting will be held tomorrow – it is expected that regulator’ monetary policy will remain unchanged and it is possible to combat inflation with the more humble tools.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 15.09.10: JPY: Yen escaped from the highest due to intervention pressure

At the Forex currency market the Yen is still in the center of investors’ attention: currency intervention today which the Bank of Japan took upon for the first time in 6 years threw the JPY down by 200 points, however market is convinced that the JPY correction was inevitable.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY however it goes up giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Wednesday.
Forex recommendations: it would be logical to stay away of the market. It is worth noting however that if the bullish sentiments intensify the pair will go to 85.60 and 86.10.
Thus currency intervention was carried out – however Japanese authorities stress that interference into currency trading is not yet completed. The Yen exact sales volume is still unknown, although market believes that the regulator has sold the currency for about $1.20 billion.
The Bank of Japan representative Noda stated today that intervention would not have significant effect on the monetary policy because policy is determined by economics and its indices. Noda emphasized that today’s regulator’s efforts would stabilize situation at the financial areas.
The head of the Bank Shirakawa also made a statement in which he noted that authorities should closely monitor the downside risks to the national economy; the politician gave an indication that the Bank’s further intervention is probable.
Naoto Khan won elections and became the head of the Democratic Party, retaining the leader’s chair. In response the Yen surged to a new peak as Khan is not so ardent supporter of the currency intervention as his rival Ozawa. The events today showed that investors’ joy was premature.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 15.09.10: AUD: Australian Dollar attempts to go down

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate demonstrates a desire to pull back from the top of the five days growing channel.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD however it tends to go down which will give grounds to sell the pair. Stochastic Oscillator continues to give a similar signal.
Forex recommendations: if the bearish trend maintains and in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9350 the pair will go to 0.9310 and 0.9250.
The following Australian data was released today:
– Launched constructions rose by 0.8% in QII against the growth by 4.3% in QI;
– Consumer confidence index fell by 5.0% in September against the growth by 5.4% in August.
– New vehicles sales in August: +0.3% m/m.
Consumer confidence is declining – according to Westpac, the growth of August was leveled down by today’s report however the July level of 11% still remains inaccessible.
The weak data of September indicates the necessity of being prudent: the rate remains unchanged for a very long time; indicator reduces reflecting the economic processes in the country.
According to the data released earlier GDP level in Australia rose to the maximum of the last three years in QII demonstrating consolidation by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.9%. Previous index value was at the level of 0.7%. Economists believe that Chinese demand for iron ore is an activator of the Australian economic growth. New interest rate increase hardly threatens Australia. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.50%per annum now. The main and official version of the last RBA meeting is as follows –current level of the inflation decline made it possible not to undertake drastic measures to tighten monetary policy.
It became known last week that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept current interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.50% per annum as markets had expected. There was also nothing new in Mr. Stevens’ comments: he stressed that the world economic outlook is still vague although the Australian economic recovery rate is quite acceptable.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.09.10: Euro retreats in the morning, however it might continue its growth in the evening

The pair EUR/USD goes down slightly at the Forex currency market on Thursday repeating the dynamics of the Asian trading floors.
By 10.35 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2986 against closing session level of 1.3010 yesterday.
The Bank of Japan intervention into the trading session continued this morning, experts however believe that its effect will be minimal: the Yen will be in demand until the end of September as fiscal half year is coming to the end in Japan, after that the regulator will need to pour considerable funds into the market to achieve some results.
The day is going to be interesting in terms of macro-statistics: the Eurozone data will be released today and the U.S. labour market statistic is expected in the second half of the session as well.
Presumably the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.2900-1.3070 on Thursday trading session.