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[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 10.09.10: JPY: Yen allows USD a brief respite

At the Forex currency market today the Japanese Yen rate goes down a little giving the USD a chance to regain slightly.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area today however it is going up, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is not giving a clear signal on Friday.
Forex recommendations: if the current external background maintains buyers’ targets will be the levels of 84.30 and 84.60.
Japanese Prime Minister Mr. Khan stated today that resolute steps against expensive Yen shall be taken only if circumstances require so. He reiterated once again that sharp currency fluctuation threatens local economy however setting up a regulator for the currency market is not an easy task.
As became known on Tuesday morning the Bank of Japan kept the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.1% per annum, lending volume was also left unchanged.
The Yen no longer responds to the monetary politicians’ verbal attacks in its address- not a single measure has been implemented from all those mentioned by the Japanese authorities; amid another wave of uncertainty and obscurity at the global capital market traders are risk averse again and turn to the safe harbors.
An interesting fact is worth noting: the head of the Democratic Party Ozzava entered the political scene imperceptibly: he used to refrain from making comments until recently, however in the last few days his opinion is widely carried in all the news. Today the politician stated that the Bank of Japan should respond immediately to what is happening at the currency market, despite the questionable success of the sole currency intervention. Earlier Ozzava noted that the possibility of the currency intervention by the Bank of Japan should not be excluded– at the same time it is required to set clear objectives for the monetary system reforms. The politician noted also that the Bank of Japan has sufficient reserves to overcome deflation even on its own. Earlier he came out with a statement regarding economy and expensive Yen: he noted last week that it is necessary to halt the rise of the Yen; however he did not suggest any means to do it, specifying only that resources of the Bank of Japan in this respect are limited. In general Ozzava stressed that the Yen’s growth is not that crucial in the long term prospects.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 10.09.10: CHF: Franc is at the new month lows in pairing with USD

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to go down today due to the positive external background and investors’ willingness to take risk towards the end of the week. The Franc has reached new month lows by midday in pairing with the USD.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is close to the signal line for the pair USD/CHF and is not giving a clear signal. At the same time Stochastic Oscillator is giving a pair sell signal being in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Most likely at the moment that the pair will go down within the fixed profit range.
Domestic situation in Switzerland is still unchanged.
Information released last week helped to clarify Swiss exports situation in 2009. Thus more than 50% of exports were concentrated in the West European countries, in Japan and the USA. For comparison: Swiss GDP in 2009 was 536 billion francs, while exports volume amounted to 181 billion francs – ie 34% of GDP. Worth noting that leading indicator index in Switzerland reduced to 2.18 points in August against the previous level of 2.22 points – economists believe that the data is not too positive, as the slump expectations were not that low; however this factor did not make the overall picture of Swiss economy more negative. Swiss National Bank continues to work hard to keep inflation in the positive area which is a positive factor for Switzerland.
Swiss statistics released earlier was not the most positive: number of unemployed in the country increased by 0.55 thousand in August, it became the first growth rate in 6 months. Altogether number of unemployed has reduced by 33.5 thousand since the beginning of the year. Unemployment rate remained at the level of 3.6% in August.
Swiss economy seems to be stable: GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country. Investments into the CHF are getting more and more attractive for the Forex investors: market realizes that the SHF does not constitute a menace at the moment and is not planning to do it in the nearest future. The fact that investors are averse to risks at Forex counts in favor of CHF at Forex – public debts as well as budget deficit is at a low level in Switzerland; which is another merit of the CHF.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 10.09.10: AUD: Australian Dollar continues to grow, nevertheless purchase volume reduces

The Australian Dollar rate continues to grow at the Forex currency market today amid the oil prices stability and investors favourable sentiments in general. However the pair AUD/USD purchase rate goes down significantly which indicates traders’ willingness to stem the trend growth probably in advance of the forthcoming weekend.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and tends to go down which gives a signal for the bearish trend start. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a pair sell signal on Friday.
Forex recommendations: in case of sales the pair downward targets will be the levels of 0.9140 and 0.9100.
Positive momentum for the AUD was provided by the statistics released yesterday on the Australian labour market: unemployment rate reduced to 5.1% against the previous level of 5.3%.
It became known this week that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the current interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.50% per annum as markets had expected. At the same time there was nothing new in Mr. Stevens’ comments: he stressed that the world economy outlook is still vague although the Australian economic recovery rate is quite acceptable. The rate will be maintained at the current level for the five consecutive months and investors do not expect it to change until the beginning of the next year.
According to the data released earlier GDP level in Australia rose to the maximum of the last three years in QII demonstrating consolidation by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.9%. Previous index value was at the level of 0.7%. %. Economists believe that Chinese demand for iron ore is an activator of the Australian economic growth. New interest rate increase hardly threatens Australia. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.50%per annum now. The main and official version of the last RBA meeting is as follows –current level of the inflation decline cannot prevent from undertaking drastic measures to tighten monetary policy.
Worth noting that the economy still provides support to the AUD – labour market at least.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 13.09.10: Euro is growing supported by good Asian statistics

The pair EUR/USD is traded upward at the Forex currency market on Monday taking advantage of the favourable news from the USA and China.
By 10.Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2816 against the closing session level of 1.2710 on Friday.
The Chinese news released this morning which was estimated by investors as positive was as follows: industrial output level increased by 13.9% y/y in August; inflation – by 3.5% y/y.
The day is going to be uneventful in terms of macro-statistics – only the data which will show industrial output volume in Eurozone for July will draw investors’ attention.
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.2740-1.2890 on Monday trading session.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 13.09.10: GBP: British Pound is growing, supported by external background

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is consolidating at the beginning of the week, taking advantage of the favourable external background.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair GBP/USD, however it is going up this morning, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal at the beginning of the week.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5460 buyers’ targets will be the levels of 1.5510 and 1.5550.
According to the data released at the end of last week the UK producer price level remained unchanged in August having the same value as in July while analytics expected growth by 0.1%. This fact has some impact on GDP which was obvious on Friday however the Pound is consolidating today amid traders’ general enthusiasm.
Earlier the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.50% per annum, volume of the assets redemption program was also kept unchanged in the amount of 200 billion pounds sterling.
According to the data released earlier UK houses prices declined by 0.3% m/m (+1.5% y/y) against the previous fall by 0.1% m/m as per Hometrack. Thus the situation in the housing sector is getting worse. As per the Rightmove report, number of people who buy a house for the first time can decline to the new low even before the end of this year – according to the survey the number of those who planned and bought a house in QIII 2010 amounted to 22.2% against 30.8% a quarter earlier. If experts’ forecast justifies, the situation in the UK housing market will become more complicated; analytics note that there is ground for concern even now.
As became known last week production in the UK manufacturing sector increased by 0.3% on monthly basis (+4.9% y/y) in July. Industrial production rose by 0.3% as well, while the rise by 0.4% was expected.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 13.09.10: CHF: Rate of Franc rate began to grow again

At the Forex currency market on Monday Swiss Franc rate demonstrates growth taking advantage of the favourable external background to rebound after the previous fall.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/CHF. However it is going down giving grounds for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal being in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: if current external background maintains sellers’ targets will be the levels of 1.0090 and 1.0060.
The following Swiss data was released today:
– Producer price: +0.1% m/m (forecast -0.1%);
– Imports price: +0.5% y/y (forecast: +0.3%).
This data supported the CHF.
Swiss statistics released earlier was not the most positive: number of unemployed in the country increased by 0.55 thousand in August, it became the first growth rate in 6 months. Altogether number of unemployed has reduced by 33.5 thousand since the beginning of the year. Unemployment rate remained at the level of 3.6% in August.
Swiss economy seems to be stable: GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country.
Investments into the CHF are getting more and more attractive for the Forex investors: market realizes that the SHF does not constitute a menace at the moment and is not planning to do it in the nearest future. The fact that investors are averse to risks at Forex counts in favor of CHF at Forex – public debts as well as budget deficit is at a low level in Switzerland; which is another merit of the CHF. Leading indicator index in Switzerland reduced to 2.18 points in August against the previous level of 2.22 points – economists believe that the data is not too positive, as the slump expectations were not that low; however this factor did not make the overall picture of Swiss economy more negative. Swiss National Bank continues to work hard to keep inflation in the positive area which is a positive factor for Switzerland.
At the meeting this week the SNB will announce its interest rate decision. The subsequent monetary politicians’ comments will deserve consideration.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 13.09.10: JPY: Yen goes up in price although market is steady

The Japanese Yen rate goes up at the Forex currency market on Monday despite positive external background and Forex investor’ interest in risk
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY however it goes down giving grounds for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal.
Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets today will be the levels of 83.90 and 83.60.
The situation in Japanese economy has not changed much at the weekend.
Elections will take place in Japan tomorrow. The Democratic Party will elect its new leader. The current head of the Party who is at the same time Japanese Prime Minister Khan is among the main candidates as well as his perpetual opponent Ichiro Ozawa.
Worth noting that Ozawa is proponent of the urgent currency intervention – he stated earlier that the Bank of Japan should respond immediately to what is happening at the currency market, despite the questionable success of the sole currency intervention. Earlier Ozawa noted that the possibility of the currency intervention by the Bank of Japan should not be excluded– at the same time it is required to set clear objectives for the monetary system reforms. The politician noted also that the Bank of Japan has sufficient reserves to overcome deflation even on its own. Earlier he came out with a statement regarding economy and expensive Yen: he noted last week that it is necessary to halt the rise of the Yen; however he did not suggest any means to do it, specifying only that resources of the Bank of Japan in this respect are limited. In general Ozawa stressed that the Yen’s growth is not that crucial in the long term prospects.
In case of his victory Ozawa is geared up for carrying out intervention which has not been carried out in Japan for 6 years, since 2004. According to the public opinion poll electorate supports Khan at the moment however most of the politicians support Ozawa.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 13.09.10: AUD: Australian Dollar continues to ascend steadily

The Australian Dollar rate continues its steady growth at the Forex currency market which had started in the middle of last week. Thus ascending trend for the currency has been going on for the fourth session in a row.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is going up, confirming a pair previous buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal being in the overbought area.
Forex recommendations: buyers’ targets today will be the levels of 0.9350 and 0.9385.
Economic situation in Australia remains unchanged currently.
It became known last week that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept current interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.50% per annum as markets had expected. There was also nothing new in Mr. Stevens’ comments: he stressed that the world economic outlook is still vague although the Australian economic recovery rate is quite acceptable.
The rate will be maintained at the current level for the five consecutive months and investors do not expect it to change until the beginning of the next year.
According to the data released earlier GDP level in Australia rose to the maximum of the last three years in QII demonstrating consolidation by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.9%. Previous index value was at the level of 0.7%. %. Economists believe that Chinese demand for iron ore is an activator of the Australian economic growth. New interest rate increase hardly threatens Australia. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.50%per annum now. The main and official version of the last RBA meeting is as follows –current level of the inflation decline cannot prevent from undertaking drastic measures to tighten monetary policy.
Worth noting that the economy still provides support to the AUD – labour market at least.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 13.09.10: CAD: Canadian Dollar is going up again smoothing over the fall on Friday

The Canadian Dollar demonstrates steady growth at the Forex currency market at the beginning of the week due to the stable oil prices support.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CAD and is going down giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Monday being in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets today will be the levels of 1.0250 and 1.0200.
The block of the Canadian news released on Friday confused investors.
Thus the number of began constructions in Canada dropped by 3% in August while the number of new houses foundations amounted to 183 thousand. If the situation does not improve in the nearest few months, the CAD will be under significant pressure.
The Canadian trade balance deficit increased to 2.7 billion CAD in August against 1.8 billion in July. It was caused by the exports volume reduction which traditionally supports economy.
The released statistics is weak – it is too weak to deter the Bank of Canada from the interest rate increase in the nearest future if only monetary politicians detect really disturbing signals in the statistics.
At the meeting last week the Bank of Canada decided to raise interest rate level to 1% per annum (+25 basis points). Although the decision was entirely predictable Forex market responded to this by buying up CAD, ignoring monetary politicians accompanying comments that the situation in the economy is vague and uncertain.
In the release the Bank of Canada emphasizes that national economy growth rate slowed down in QII this year although the process is within the forecast scope. The Bank gave an indication that although the financial system stimulation will be continued, further monetary policy tightening and the rate rise are not excluded.
The Bank of Canada expects that the country’s economy will grow by 3.5% this year; while the growth forecast in April was by 3.7%. Growth forecast for 2011 was reduced to 2.9% from 3.1%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 14.09.10: Euro goes down after yesterday’s rebound

The pair EUR/USD goes down after the rebound yesterday at the Forex currency market on Tuesday morning.
By 10:35 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2869 against closing session level of 1.2882 yesterday.
Asia is a news maker again today: The Ruling Party leader elections are going on in Japan, according to the observers Naoto Khan who is now the head of the Democrats will surely overtake his nearest competitor Ozawa. If it happens currency intervention probability in Japan will reduce significantly as Khan is an observation proponent.
Eurozone statistic and statistics of some Eurozone countries released today will attract investors’ attention; the U.S. statistics will be released in the afternoon as well.
In general the Euro should chill out and relax after the sharp rebound.
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.2780-1.2920 at the trading session today.