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[LF.Anastasia]

10.07.2012

Forex: analysis and forecast of the pair AUD/USD

1. Current trend of AUD/USD

On the daily chart the Australian Dollar continues to form “bullish” trend. The highest price for the AUD/USD at around 1.03227 was recorded last Friday. On this day large institutional players showed increased interest in purchases, amid the rise in price for raw materials. Since the beginning of trades this week correction in the pair takes place. The most significant resistance level is around 1.0116.

2. Fundamental data

Correction of the Australian dollar was driven by the data on Chinese imports, which was below expectations of the experts, despite the fact that trade surplus amounted to $31.72 billion. The imports increased only by 6.3% against the forecast of 11%. This figure is an alarming indication of slowdown in the Chinese economy.
China is the largest trading partner of Australia. Therefore, fundamental Chinese data affects the rates of the AUD. Information on the employment rate in Australia, which will be released on Thursday, will be worth of attention. Experts expect decline in the rate.

3. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

The most significant resistance levels are: 1.0244, 1.0328 and 1.0445.
The most significant support levels are: 1.0158, 1.0110 and 1.0032.

4. Best entry/exit points

Currently, the best target for the purchases is at the level of 1.0158, with protective stop around 1.0158.

Gold: analysis and forecast

1. Current trend of gold

After the decline on Friday, the price for gold has slightly increased on Monday, due to the purchases of gold. Movement in the “yellow metal” was relatively slow in the range of 1577.00 - 1592.00; however, gold has prospects for the growth in the future.

2. Important levels (Resistance and Support)

The key resistance levels are: 1593.00, 1603.00 and 1620.00. Support levels are: 1577.00, 1566.00 and 1550.00.

3. Best entry/exit points

In the short-term, the most likely scenario is downward trend. In this case, the best entry points will be 1576.50, with protective stop at 1587.00. In the medium-term, gold will have a chance to grow. In such case, the best entry point will be at the level of 1551.00, with stop loss order at the level of 1521.00.

4. Supporting facts

Currently, gold prospects depend on the US Federal Reserve, which has to decide whether additional measures to stimulate national economy will be introduced, or conditions will remain unchanged. Negative US statistics increases hopes of the market participants. The fact that unemployment rate has not changed, increases chances for launching QE3 program (quantitative easing policy program of the US FR). Another important factor, that helps maintain price for gold, is European debt crisis and acceleration of inflation in many countries.

GBPUSD: Market dynamics is not going to change. The fall of the British currency against the USD will continue

1. Current trend of GBP/USD

After prolonged decline in the pair GBPUSD, slight correction has begun in the pair. The fall in the pair may continue in case of strong external factors. We can see that this week started with the flat in the pair; volumes are being accumulated for the further movement. The price is stuck in the narrow channel of 1.5470 - 1.5530. In general, movement dynamics has not changed. The British economy has not yet emerged from protracted recession and the pair GPB/USD is still under pressure. Expected development is as follows: significant fall in the pair GBP/USD will follow after the slight rise.

2. Important levels (Resistance and Support)

We can see, that “bearish” sentiment continues to dominate in the market. To date, the price is in the narrow channel and is waiting for the momentum to shift to either direction. Long-term correction might take place after the decline. In case the price exceeds the first resistance level of 1.5550, we may witness short-term upward movement to the next level of 1.5620. After that decline aimed at 1.5404 will continue. If the price remains below this level, short positions will aim at1.5322.

3. Best entry/exit points

Prospects of the flat deter traders from making decisions. More experienced traders try not to take risk and to “stay out” from the flat in the pair GBP/USD. However, taking into account today’s situation, it is advised to set limits for sale in around the key resistance level of 1.5550 and stop losses below the initial support level of 1.5460.

4. Supporting facts

The pair GBP/USD has grown at the end of the trading day on Monday, despite the lack of economic releases. Pessimistic comments of MPC representative, Mr. Posen, about prospects of the British economy and bank system have been ignored by the market.
Most likely, movement of GBP/USD will be affected by the market sentiment; however economic data should be also considered. The data on industrial output and trade balance is scheduled for the release in the near future. Taking into account the rise in PMI in the manufacturing industry, we can expect positive momentum and short-term rise in the pair up to 1.5550. However sharp fall in the British currency against the USD may take place in the future.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

11.07.2012

Technical analysis of the currency pair USD/CHF

1. Current trend of USD/CHF

As we can see on the four hour chart (fig.1), trades have been in the range of 0.9740 – 09800 since the opening session. At the moment, the short-term prospect seems uncertain. Nevertheless, the price has reached its 15-month highs and “bullish” sentiment continues to dominate (fig.2).

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Currently, the price tries to exceed important level of 0.9800. If this resistance level is broken through, the price will rush to the next resistance levels of 0.9860 and 0.9900.

If “the bears” prevents breakdown of the level of 0.9800, long-term correction may be possible. In such case, target levels will be 0.9740, 0.9690 and 0.9600.

3. Best entry/exit points

If the rate of USD/CHF continues to grow, best levels for the long positions will be: 0.9825 and 0.9875, with protective stops at 0.9790 and 0.9550.
If the price declines, it will be better to enter the market around 0.9780 and 0.9725, with stop-losses at 0.9800 and 0.9750.

4. Supporting facts

The MACD histogram is in the positive area, but below the signal line and continues to decline, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone and is generating an opposite signal. So, indicators give conflicting signals, confirming current uncertainty.

FOREX: Analytics and forecast of the pair EUR/USD

1. Current trend of EUR/USD

The Unified European currency continues to fall rapidly against the USD. On Tuesday, the pair EUR/USD reached the new local lows of 1.2235.

2. Fundamental data

Sales in the Euro were triggered by the news about decline in the industrial production index in Italy, which fell by 7% in May. Many experts believe that optimistic plan of the Italian prime-Minister to reduce budget deficit by 4.5 billion euro will not be implemented, amid high unemployment rate and decrease in the business activity in the country. It is obvious, that decline in the industrial production will negatively affect taxes and budget. So, great hopes differ from tough reality.

Leaders of the European Union made another attempt to reassure the debt market and support economy. It became known politicians approved the rescue plan of Spain. Anti-crisis Fund EFSF-ESM is ready to allocate 30 billion euro; part of this fund will be used to support banking sector after stress-test of the troubled banks. As soon as this decision became known, yield of Spanish bonds had dropped below 7%; however the pair EUR/USD continued to decline.

The Unified European currency also suffers from pressure provided from preliminary hearing in the Constitutional Court of Germany on the ratification of the current anti-crisis fund ESM and fiscal pact of the European Union. No doubt, that this case precludes from making up common plans to combat European crisis.

3. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

The most significant resistance levels are: 1.2293, 1.2323 and 1.2354.
The most significant support levels are: 1.2193, 1.2162 and 1.2132.

4. Best entry/exit points

Currently, the best target for sale is the level of 1.2193, with protective order around 1.2234.
Recommended buying level is above 1.2293, with protective order at 1.2266.

USD/CAD. Investors are waiting for statistics on Canadian exports

1. Current trend of the currency pair USD/CAD

The USD/CAD rate has maintained ascending trend since the beginning of the month. Previous slump in the Canadian dollar was caused by the decline in oil prices and the negative data on employment. Unemployment rate in the country was above experts’ expectations and amounted to 7.2% in June. On Tuesday, the USD/CAD rate reached the highs of the month, at the level of 1.0229; trying to break through this level the pair encountered significant resistance, and after the failure, it rolled back to 1.0212, which represents the level of current trading.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Initial support level is still at 1.0231; support level is at 1.0209. On Wednesday, investors are waiting for the data release on the Canadian imports, exports and foreign trade balance for May. The most feasible scenario: the CAD price will break through the level of 1.0231 and rush to the target level of 1.0251. If this level is broken down, it will go to 1.0273. It is unlikely, that economic statistics will be positive and help the Canadian dollar to strengthen. However, in such case, the price will break through the level 1.0209 and will try to reach the lowest prices of the month at the level of 1.0120.

3. Best entry/exit points

In case of the first scenario, it is advised to enter the market at the level of 1.0236, with protective stop orders at the level of 1.0211. If the Canadian dollar strengthens, and the price breaks through the level of 1.0209, the position can be opened at the level of 1.0204, with protective order at 1.0233.

4. Supporting facts

Presently, the Canadian dollar is under pressure from the negative Chinese news. Domestic demand in the country considerably reduced in June, which was driven by significant decline in the volume imports from China. Reduction in the volume of import will definitely have an impact on the CAD rate, as China is the second largest trade partner of Canada after the US. Stock market cannot support the CAD either. Canadian stock market index S&P/TSX 60 has been declining for the second week in a row, as the most of the stock indexes. On the other hand, Oil price provides some support to the CAD, as since early morning, it is making attempts to regain from yesterday’s fall.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

12.07.2012

Silver: Analysis and forecast

1. Current trend of the pair XAG/USD

Silver has traded in the range of 28.40 - 26.10, amid uncertain situation both in Europe and US. As we can see on the hour chart (fig.1) the price is in the “bearish” channel. Since the price failed to break the key “bearish” level of 26.10, it might make a new attempt in the near future.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Currently, the price tries to exceed the level of 26.71 and go down to the next level of 26.44 and further down to the key support level of 26.11. If this level is broken down, long-term downward trend will take place.
However, in case of correction, the key price levels will be 27.25 and 27.80. Now, the key resistance level is 28.33.

3. Best entry/exit points

The most feasible scenario will be further decline in the rate. If it happens, the entry points should be around 26.35 and 26.00, with stop losses at 26.55 and 26.30.
If support levels will be strong and the rate will begin to grow, it is advised to open long positions at the level of 27.35 and 27.65, with protective orders at the levels 27.15 and 27.50.

USD/JPY Yen continues to strengthen

1. Current trend of the currency pair USD/JPY

Since the beginning of the month the American dollar rate continues to decline against the Japanese currency. Correction in the rate on Wednesday was triggered by the US corporate data; however on Thursday morning the Yen started to regain positions, trying to reach Wednesday’s lows of 79.13.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Currently, USD/JPY traded in the narrow range of 79.37-79.23. Breakdown of the level 79.23 can be expected in the near future and after that the rate will slide down to the target level of 79.12 and further to 78.77. There are no clear signals for market reversal. However, if the Bank of Japan takes measures to reduce exchange rate of the Yen, breakdown of the level 79.37 will be possible and further price rise up to the two-week highs of 80.09.

3. Best entry/exit points

Breakdown of the level 79.23 can become a signal for opening short positions; in such case, the best entry point will be at the level of 79.17 with protective orders at the level of 79.40. If the price exceeds support level of 79.54, it will be reasonable to open position at the level of 79.61, with protective orders at 79.35.

4. Supporting facts

On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan left the rate of refinancing unchanged at the level of 0-0.1%, which, according to experts can lead to the further growth in the Yen. Decline in stock market indexes was caused by the JPY growth, which is unfavourable for the Japanese companies, involved in exports. Thus, Japanese stock index Nikkei has been declining for the sixth consecutive day. On Monday the index dropped below important level of 9000 points. Nevertheless, the Yen continues to strengthen.

Oil: analysis and forecast

1. Current trend of BRENT crude oil

On Wednesday, the price for the Brent crude oil increased up to $100. This happened due to reduction in the US oil reserves.

Weekly review of the Energy Information Administration in the US Department of Energy provided information that commercial oil reserves in the US (excluding strategic reserves) for the week ending on 6 July have reduced by 4.7 million barrels or 1.2%, up to 378.2 million barrels.

At the same time, overall reserves of gasoline increased by 2.8 billion barrels or 1.4% and amounted to 207.7 million barrels.

Stocks of distillers increased by 3.1 million barrels or 2.6%, amounting to120.9 million barrels.
According to the report of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), released on Tuesday, upward trend in price was driven by the reduction in the volume of oil production in Saudi Arabia and the effects of international sanctions in Iran.

Currently, the price is in the range of 99.80 - 100.80.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

The most significant support levels will be: 100.80, 101.45 and 102.25.
The most significant resistance levels will be: 99.70, 98.70 and 97.80.

3. Best entry/exit points

Presently, the most appealing target for sale will be at the level of 98.60 and protective orders around100.00.
The level for buying is 101.20, with protective orders at 99.60.

4. Supporting facts

Investors are in anticipation of Friday’s news, as Chinese macro-economic data will be made public. It is assumed that statistics will be negative, which will affect the volume of consumption of the “black gold”. Oil prices are still under pressure from the debt crisis of Eurozone.

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD

Let’s look at the chart with timeframe H4. The line Tenkan-Sen is below Kijun-Sen, and they both are directed downwards. Current cloud is downward, the line Chinkou Span is below the price chart. The price chart broke through the lower boundary of the cloud and remains below the cloud. The levels Open and Close of the four-hour candlestick 04:00-08:00 is below 0.7957. It seems that “bearish” trend will continue: however the lower flat boundary of the cloud may be an attractive level for the price and the chart will be focused around it for a couple of days.

Now, here is view of the daily chart. The picture here is opposite to the above. The line Tenkan-Sen is above Kijun-Sen and they both are directed upward. Current cloud is upward, the line Chinkou Span is above the price chart. After breaking through the cloud, the price moved back to the channel between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The line Tenkan-Sen will be the resistance level, while upper flat boundary of the cloud (the line линия Senko Span B) is going to act as the support level. Scenario that also may develop on the daily chart is as follows: the price will decline to the level of Senko Span B (0.7887) and remain in the area in a long flat.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

16.07.2012

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD

Let’s have a look at a four-hour chart. Tenkan-Sen crosses Kijun-Sen below the cloud, forming “Golden Cross”. This pattern indicates that “bearish” trend is coming to the end and will shift into correction, or probably into the opposite trend. However, this signal is not strong enough to open position. It is advisable to wait for the confirmation from the line Chinkou Span, which should cross the price chart from bottom to the top.

Other option is to open long positions when the price reaches the level above Senko Span A (0.7983). At the moment, the price is inside the cloud, support levels are assumed to be at Senko Span B (0.7957) and Kijun-Sen (0.7929).

Daily chart shows correction in the “bullish” trend. Price chart is between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen; Tenkan-Sen is horizontal, а Kijun-Sen is moving upwards. The line Chinkou Span is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. Strong support level is flat upper boundary of the cloud (0.7887).

Forex: Analysis and forecast of the pair GBP/USD

1. Current trend of GBP/USD

Friday, 13 July was a favourable day for the British currency. The Pound has grown against the USD, due to the positive financial news from the UK. Investors were encouraged by the data on production in the construction sector. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, ONS, output in the construction sector rose by 6.2% against the fall of 13.6% in April. The pair was also supported by the announcement made by the Bank of England and the British Treasury about the details of the new scheme- FLS (financing loans) that will help banks obtain funds at the interest rate from 0.25% to 1.50% depending on the terms and volumes of the loan.
The price was in the range of 1.5415 - 1.5500.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

If ascending trend continues, resistance level will be at the level of 1.5590 and the next target for the “bulls” will be the level of 1.605. If downward trend will develop, support levels will be1.5515 and 1.490.

3. Best entry/exit points

The best point to enter the market is 1.5520 with protective order around 1.5550.
Buying is recommended above 1.5590 with protective orders below the level of 1.5550.

The pair USDJPY is under pressure

1. Current trend of USD/JPY

Correction in the pair USD/JPY continues and despite the display of emotions in the last few days, dynamics of movement remained unchanged. The pair USD/JPY was under pressure in the opening session. Severe storms in the South of Japan helped raise negative dynamics. At the moment, after slight correction we can expect further decline in the pair USDJPY, targeted at the recent local lows at 78.60, and after that at 77.66.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

At today’s trading session initial support level of 79.10 was exceeded. We can expect the breakdown of the other key support level of 78.78. If “bearish” sentiment will be able to push the price below the basic level of 78.60, it may reach the key level, which is also the local lows over the last few months, that is 77.66. It is unlikely, that reversal will take place at one of the initial support levels and the price will go up to the key resistance level of 79.80.

3. Best entry/exit points

Feasible scenario for today is downward movement to the local lows of 77.66; minor correction to the initial support level. Stop for sale is recommended below support level of 78.78.
It is also possible that correction to the initial resistance level 79.50 will take place after the formation of the downward wave. In this case, limits for sale are advisable around resistance level of 79.50 and profit taking at 77.90.

4. Supporting facts

It is the day off in the Japanese Banks. Therefore, only news on the American currency can influence on the USD/JPY rate.
MACD goes down, indicating downward movement and short positions will be likely; MACD reversal will indicate correction.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

17.07.2012

Analysis and forecast of USDCAD

An hourly chart shows that the USD has weakened against the Canadian dollar for more than 300 points over the last month. Fundamental changes in the rate are not expected in the new future.

The USD began to decline, since statistics released earlier showed that the US retail sales had decreased.
According to the released data, the US retail sales fell by 0.5% in June, while economists had expected growth of 0.2%.
It is worth noting that the US retail sales have been declining for three months in a row.

The chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Mr. Ben Bernanke will make a speech today. The CAD shall rise if the head of the FR announces easing of the monetary policy to stimulate economy.

It is well-known that earlier similar easing of the monetary policy had already led to the rise in price for raw materials and supported the Canadian dollar, as the Canadian economy depends on exports of raw materials.

Most analytics tend to believe that FR chairman, Bernanke will announce decision in favour of easing of the monetary policy.
Resistance levels are: 1.0172 and 1.0203. It is most likely that breakdown of the level of 1.0203 will generate ascending trend, targeted at 1.0240.

Support levels: 1.0130, 1.0120 and 1.0095. If the level of 1.0095 is broken down, the next target of “bears” will be the level of 1.0045.

AUDUSD. Australian dollar continues to strengthen

1. Current trend of the currency pair AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rate remains in the ascending trend, trying to move away from the two-week lows of 1.0099, which the AUD reached last Thursday. Slump in the Australian dollar was caused by the negative macro-economic statistics, which showed that employment rate in the country fell sharply. Nevertheless, due to support from high prices for raw materials, the AUD resumed its growth.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Currently, initial resistance level is 1.0300. Most likely, breakdown of this level will lead to the further rise in the AUD/USD up to the target level of 1.0403. In case of breakdown of this level the price will go to the level of 1.0475.
Initial support level is 1.0205. If this level is broken down, the price may reach the key level of 1.100; however this scenario is hardly probable in the near future.

3. Best entry/exit points

Breakdown of the resistance level of 1.0300 can become a signal for opening long positions. In such case it is advisable to enter the market at the level of 1.0307 with setting protective orders at the level of 1.0274. If the price reverses and breakdown of the support level of 1.0205 will take place, you can open position at the level of уровне 1.0194 with protective orders at the level of 1.0244.

4. Supporting facts

High prices for the raw materials provide support to the Australian currency at the moment. The price of the BRENT crude oil soared up to 103 USD per barrel, commodity index CRB is also increasing. The Austrian stock market index is trading higher for the second week in a row. The Bank of Australia keeps refinancing rate above the rate of inflation and the price of loans in the Australian interbank market is maintained in the range of 3.4-3.6%. All this facts help the Australian national currency to continue its growth.

Forex: Analysis and forecast of the pair EURUSD

1. Current trend of EUR/USD

The Unified European currency has steadily increased against the American dollar at trades on Monday afternoon. Up to date the pair EUR/USD traded in the range of 1.2288 - 1.2257.

2. Fundamental data

The Euro has strengthened due to the poor US macro-statistics, which led to the decline in the USD versus major world currencies. According to Bureau of Statistics, retail sales in the US fell by 0.5%, while economists had expected the growth of 0.2%. The data demonstrates weakness of the US economic recovery that may trigger a new round of quantitative easing to support employment and manufacturing sectors in the USA. Experts believe that the US Federal Reserve will be forced to print more currency soon. Tomorrow’s speech of Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US FR, will be devoted to this subject.
Inflation in the European Union is still under control, which gives the ECB a chance to use some new tactics to adjust interest rates. If situation deteriorates, we may see decline in the interest rate in the near future, which will have a negative impact on the European currency. It is also worth noting, that an issue of providing aid to the banking system of Spain in the amount of 100 billion euros, will be brought to a vote in Germany on Thursday. This is a fact that problems have not been resolved, despite general understanding in EU on how to exit from the crisis. The Euro continues to be under pressure, large institutional players keep selling the currency.

3. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

The key resistance levels: 1.2302, 1.2332 and 1.2363.
The key support levels: 1.2206, 1.2175 and 1.2144.

4. Best entry/exit points

The most attractive target for the purchase is the level of 1.2288 with protective orders around 1.2250.
Sale is recommended below support level of 1.2206 with protective orders around 1.2245.

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAUUSD
Now, we will examine a four-hour chart. After formation of the “Golden cross”, the line Tenkan-Sen is above the Kijun-Sen, and they both are horizontal. The line Chinkou Span has crossed the price chart from below to above; nevertheless current cloud is still descending. Although, breakdown of the cloud has been confirmed this morning, the price has stopped near the flat upper boundary. Senko Span A (1588.27) will become a support level.

On the chart with a large timeframe we can see that all components of Ichimoku indicator indicate that a flat is going to be long-lasting. The cloud which is next to the last one has several flat upper limits. Regardless recent reversal, it is too early to speak about change in trend. The line Chinkou Span has shifted backward and follows after the price chart, not demonstrating obvious intersections. Both, Tenkan-Sen и Kijun-Sen are horizontal. Resistance level is the line Senko Span B (1605.02).

 

[LF.Anastasia]

19.07.2012

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USDCHF

USDCHF, H4
First thing that calls attention on the four-hour chart is the fact that the price has entered the cloud. After formation of the “Dead cross” the line Tenkan-Sen, which is below Kijun-Sen, is sharply heading down. However, Kijun-Sen is horizontal, so it is too early to expect a new trend. The line Chinkou Span has crossed the price chart from above to below; the lines Senko Span A and B have nearly converged in one point. Reversal of the cloud is expected. Resistance level is still the line on the Kijun-Sen (0.9811).

USDCHF, D1
On the daily chart we can see correction of the ascending trend. The line Chinkou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. Tenkan-Sen is above Kijun-Sen is directed sharply upward. However the price is between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen, while the latter becomes the level of support (0.9647). Expected resistance level is the last extremum of the line Chinkou Span (0.9841).

Key levels
Resistance levels are: 0.9811 and 0.9841.
Support level is: 0.9647.

Trading tips
It is recommended to wait for the reversal of the cloud on the four-hour chart or breakdown of one the cloud limits. In the long-term opening of the long positions is possible when the price exceeds the line Tenkan-Sen.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

20.07.2012

NZDUSD New Zealand dollar may reach the highs of July

1. Current trend of the currency pair NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar has kept a tendency for strengthening for the second week in a row. Investors are disappointed with the weak US economic statistics, primarily in the real estate and employment sectors and they prefer to invest into high- liquidity commodity currencies. On Thursday, the NZD has reached the two-week highs at the level of 0.8054 and currently traded not far from this level in the channel of 0.8047 - 0.8014 with no chances for the further growth.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

At the moment, the level of 0.8047 is the initial resistance level. If this level is broken down, the price may reach the highs of July, exceeding the level of 0.8075 and moving up to the target level of 0.8117. Although the chance is low, however temporary downward correction in the NZD rate may also take place. In this case the price can breakdown of the support level of 0.8014 and drop to the target level of 0.7981.

3. Best entry/exit points

Breakdown of the level 0.8047 will be the signal for opening long position and in this case the best level to enter the market is the level of 0.8051 with protective order around 0.8007. In case of correction, position can be opened at the level of 0.8004 with protective order around 0.8045.

4. Supporting facts

The New Zealand Dollar gains support from the negative expectations of investors associated with the European and Chinese economies. Commodity index CRB, which is correlates with the New Zealand currency has been growing for a month. The index NZX 50 traded higher. Monetary policy of the government also has a positive effect on the NZD growth. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been maintained high interest rate at the level of 2.5% throughout a year, which also encourages investors’ interest to a stable and expensive currency.

Forex: Analysis and forecast of the pair EURUSD

1. Current trend of EUR/USD

At the Forex currency market trading volume in the pair EUR/USD remains low. Trades for the Unified European currency continues in the narrow range of 1.221 -1.2317. Large number of buying orders is in the range of 1.2320 -1.2330, which make this level attractive for opening long positions.

2. Fundamental data

It became known today that German Bundestag members approved the aid for Spain. The sum of the anti-crisis package will amount to 100 billion euro. A significant portion of these funds will be transferred to support banking sector of Spain. According to anti-crisis regulations to improve situation in the country, Spain should reduce budget deficit to 6.3% of GDP this year, to 4.5% next year which is unfeasible task for the government amid fiscal problems and slowdown in the manufacturing sector. It also became known yesterday, that the bond yield has exceeded 7% as investors are still very pessimistic.

3. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Key resistance levels are: 1.2296, 1.2327 and 1.2357.
Key support levels are: 1.2205, 1.2174 and 1.2144.

4. Best entry/exit points

Currently, the best target for buying is the levels of 1.2320 -1.2325 with protective order around 1.2295.

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAUUSD

XAUUSD, H4
On the four-hour chart the price is inside the cloud, which is rather risky for opening new positions. The line Tenkan-Sen has crossed Kijun-Sen from bottom to top, which gives us a “bullish” neutral signal. The line Chinkou Span is below the price chart; current cloud is ascending. Expected resistance levels are: last line of extrema Chinkou Span (1585.10-1585.20) and Senko Span B (1589.17).

XAUUSD, D1
On the chart with timeframe D1, Tenkan-Sen is below Kijun-Sen, and they both are horizontal. The line Chinkou Span is below the price chart. Current values of Senko Span A и B are almost the same, which suggests that the flat will be long-lasting. The price is below the cloud; resistance level will be the line Kijun-Sen (1590.77), support levels ― last line of extrema Chinkou Span (1573.17 и 1572.13).

Key levels
Resistance levels: 1585.10-1585.20, 1589.17 and 1590.77.
Support levels: 1573.17 and 1572.13.

Trading tips
It is recommended to wait for the signal from the line Chinkou Span (intersection with the price chart) on the four-hour chart or a breakdown of one of the cloud limits. Exit from the flat is expected in the long-term with the breakthrough the cloud or support level.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

23.07.2012

The yen continues to strengthen against the dollar

1. Current trend of USDJPY

All previous week the pair USDJPY kept the downward trend. The pair has slipped even lower in the opening of the session. Japan's currency maintains its status of "refuge" at a high level in the conditions of possible easing in U.S. monetary policy, and continues to strengthen against the dollar. It can be assumed that the negative trend in USDJPY pair will maintain during the current week, with the possibility of correction in the support levels. As of today, the price has fixed at 78.20 (10) and tends lower to the target level of 77.70. But, despite the constant strengthening of the yen, we can not exclude the possibility of the intervention threat by the side of Japanese authorities, which is constantly taken into consideration by the market for currency transactions with Japan.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

For today, the price is slowly aproaching a recent local minimum of 77.70. Further, we can expect reaching the next significant support level of 76.60, if the price is fixed below the level of 77.70. But it is also possible that the situation will be developed upon a different scenario - the rapid ascent of the pair USDJPY, in case the Japanese authorities hold intervention, and good news comes from American site for the U.S. currency.
Resistance levels: 79.15, 79.80, 80.10, 80.60.

3. Best entry/exit points

The most actual scenario is the gradual downward trend to a local minimum of 77.70, and if the price is fixed below this level of support, further downward trend to a key support level of 76.60 will be with minor corrections. It is reasonable to set Stop Loss below 77.70 support level, or limits on Sell order in the first level of resistance - 79.15.
Also, we do not exclude the possibility of a sharp upward leap to a key resistance level of 80.60, if the Bank of Japan interfiers into the strengthening of the yen. It is reasonable to set Stop Loss on Buy order above 78.50.

4. Supporting facts

The MACD histoprogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a clear signal to Sell, short positions are actual.

Forex: Analysis and forecast of the pair EURUSD

1. Current trend of EUR/USD

On Friday, July 20, the euro has reduced its value against the U.S. dollar. Despite the fact that Spain will receive financial assistance from the EU in amount of 100 billion euros, the region remains to be one of the problem centre of the debt crisis on the European map. That is exactly negative news from Spain that has become the reason for the significant drop of the euro / dollar pair. Acute financial problems experiences the Spanish region of Valencia, which needs refinancing of its debt obligations. Also, the profitability on ten-year loan has reached 7%.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Important levels of resistance are 1.2160 and 1.2195. Resistance level is 1.2100, the next level on the way of bearish traders is 1.2050.

3. Best entry/exit points

Sell contracts look more promising. In this case, it's worth entering the market at 1.2090 with a set of Stop Loss at 1.2130.

4. Supporting facts

At the moment, the economic situation in Europe remains extremely unstable. Even in those countries that are considered to be leading in the EU, there is some decline. The index of business climate in business community of Germany, according to the experts, is expected to decline, as well as the composite index of Purchasing Managers.
Preliminary data on consumer trust in the euro zone will come this week. Experts expect that because of continuing unstable situation, the trust will decline in comparison with the June data.

BRENT continues to descend

1.Current trend of crude oil Brent

The trend of crude oil BRENT has remained a steady upward trend over a month. On Friday, the price reached its highest level within the last three months, getting to 108.13. The growth of oil quotes was due to the macroeconomic statistics published by the U.S., according to which the crude oil and petrol supplies in the U.S. have dramatically reduced. Also the arising tension over Syria became a reason for this growth. However, on Friday the price of BRENT began to fall, and it still continues. Investors reacted negatively to the deteriorating economic situation in Spain, which gave a rise to new concerns in deepening of European debt crisis, slowing of global economy and reducing demand for energy.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

The initial level of support of BRENT at the moment is the one of 102.96, the closest resistance level is the one of 104.56. The most likely scenario is the one where oil prices continue their decline during the week, the price will make the breakdown of 102.96 level and will gently descend to the target level of 100.98. However, there is a possibility of temporary correction of the course, due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East. In this case, the BRENT price can make a breakdown of the resistance level of 104.56 and reach the target level of 107.04.

3.Best entry/exit points

Implementing the first scenario it would be reasonable to enter the market at 102.72, with the Stop Loss level at 105.11. Breakdown of the resistance level of 104.56 can serve as a signal for opening a long- term position, in this case it would be reasonable to enter the market at 104.71, with the Stop Loss level at 102.27.

4.Supporting facts

Now oil is pressured by negative economic news from Europe and China. Investors believe that in conditions of global economic slowdown the demand for energy may be reduced. These concerns are confirmed by statistics from the U.S.. Demand for oil in this country fell in June by 3% comparably with last year, while demand for petrol and distillates fell by 2.5% and 0.7% respectively. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions over Iran and Syria gives support to BRENT course. Thus, the Iranian parliament on Friday backed up with majority vote the bill on damming Strait of Hormuz, via which these days up to 35% of global oil shipments are carried. Implementation of the Iranian government's threats will inevitably lead to oil prices higher.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

25.07.2012

USDCAD. Canadian dollar continues to fall

1. Current trend of USD/CAD

At the end of the last week the Canadian dollar began to fall in price against the U.S. one. On Tuesday, the USD / CAD updated two-week maximum, reaching 1.0226. And it has all the prerequisites for a new maximum update on Wednesday. The reason of the Canadian dollar weakening is worsening of the debt crisis in Euro zone countries. Economic slump leads to a decrease in consumption, which negatively affects the prices of raw materials, that, in their turn, pressure CAD.

2. Important levels (Resistance and Support)

Now there can be seen lateral trend on the market. The price is testing 1.0228 resistance level. It is most probable that the price of USD / CAD will fix above this level and continue rising to the target level of 1.0250, and in case of breakdown - to the level of 1.0303. However, in case of positive market signals receiving from the European Union a temporary trend correction is possible towards the minimum Tuesday’s value of 1.0157; meanwhile there will be the breakdown of the important support level at 1.0199.

3. Best entry/exit points

When implementing on the market the first scenario, it would be reasonable to open an order at 1.0236, with Stop Loss at 1.0197. The breakdown of support level of 1.0199 will be a signal to open a short-term position; in this case, you can enter the market at 1.0192, with Stop Loss at 1.0227.

4. Supporting facts

As it was earlier mentioned, the Canadian dollar is pressured by negative economic news from Europe. The slowdown of the European economy reduces demand for raw materials. CRB Index of raw materials has been reducing since the end of last week, which also puts pressure on the Canadian currency. In addition, according to most experts’ opinion, the increase of interest rates by Central Bank of Canada, which could support the bullish traders’ moods, won’t happen in the near future.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

26.07.2012

EURUSD pair still tends to decrease

1. Current trend of EURUSD

After a significant decline over the past few sessions, and reaching of two-year minimum, the price leaped back from 1.2040 level, and rushed up. The price has scored about 100 points, and has fixed at about 1.2150. More positive mood on European markets and the development of new political measures of debt crisis control in Euro zone influence this rise. But these moods are very fragile and short-term. Euro still has a trend to descend against the background of continuing concerns about debt problems in Europe.

2. Important levels (support and resistance)

Although the price has rolled up, we still see that the "bearish" moods are predominant. Today, the price has fixed at 1.2150. If the moods stabilize, and the drastic steps to overcome the debt crisis in Euro zone are taken, the price can go further rising, and reach the next resistance level of 1.2210, and then of 1.2270. But another scenario is more relevant. Further reduction of the pair EURUSD is possible, due to the fact that several EU countries are on the verge of default, and some other countries have been in deep debt. It is very difficult to get out of this deep recession. Based on this scenario, the price will break the first support level of 1.2070, then of 1.2040, and further will rush to the key level of 1.1950.

3. Best entry/exit points

The main scenario is downward trend of EURUSD pair, but there is a possibility of a short-term rise.
While the price is at the stage of correction, it is possible to open short-term orders in the range of 1.2150 - 1.2040. And further, short-term orders are more preferable.

4. Supporting facts

MACD is directed downward and the histogram is in the negative zone, which gives a clear signal to open short-term orders. The moods in the Euro zone are tense and fragile, a single negative news is enough for the price on EURUSD to rush down again.
Greece may not get another financial assistance, as it has failed to meet its fiscal plans. An additional negative factor is the statement made by MOODY "S about recount of forecasts based on rates of Holland, Luxembourg and Germany on the negative ones.