LiteForex's analytics

[LF.Anastasia]

26.07.2012

GBPUSD: Analysis and forecast

1. Current trend of GBPUSD

British pound sterling continues to fall against the U.S. dollar. This fall has lasted for four days. The reason for this trend is the negative statistics. GDP of UK in the second quarter decreased by 0.7%, which is the sharpest fall since 2009. The volume of production in the services sector declined by 0.1% in the second quarter. Industrial production fell by 1.3%, while site area fell by 5.2%. These figures are evidence of significant problems in the British economy. In this regard, the Bank of England has launched a program of easing, additionally involving to the economy 50 billion pounds. Although, taking into account such a significant recession, there will be more economic stimulus measures needed than planned before.

2. Important levels (support and resistance)

An important level of resistance, today, will be the level of 1.5505, overcoming it the price could reach 1.5545. Resistance levels are 1.5465 and 1.5420.

3. Best entry/exit points

The best entry point for Buy orders will be at 1.5510, with Stop Loss at 1.5460. For Sell orders is it better to enter at 1.5455, with Stop Loss at 1.5500.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

27.07.2012

USDJPY: Forecast for 27.07.2012

1. Сurrent trend of USDJPY
If we examine an hour chart, we can note that this week a pair USDJPY has been traded in a range of 78.80 - 78.01, and in general, the "bearish" moods dominate in this pair.
In the recent speeches, the head of FRS said about a possible softening of monetary policy, as a measure to stimulate the U.S. economy.
Although Bernanke did not say anything specific, but investors' expectations about the stimulus from the FRS provoked the fall of the U.S. dollar against major currencies, including the yen.
The most likely scenario for today is a continuation of the dollar's descending against the Japanese yen against the background of weak macroeconomic data from the U.S.

2. Important levels (support and resistance)
In case of further fall of the pair, the first level of support can be at 78.05, from which the descending will continue to 77.40.
In case of resumption of the upward movement, the first level of resistancewill be at 78.35, from which the increase is possible to 78.50 and then to 78.80.

3. Macroeconomic data that should be taken into consideration today:
15:30 GDP of USA (the previous value - 1.9%, forecast - 1.5%).
15:30 GDP deflator of USA (the previous value - 2.0%, forecast - 1.6% ).
15:30 Index of prices expenses for personal consumption of USA (the previous value - 2.6%, forecast - 0.8%).

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USDCHF

USDCHF, H4
Let's examine the four-hour chart. Tenkan-Sen line crossed the Kijun-Sen one from top downward above the price chart, forming a "Death Cross" figure. A sharp downward movement resulted in the cloud breakdown and price fixing under the last clouds. Chinkou Span line following the price fell to 140 points and crossed the chart from top downward. Then the cloud turned over. The expected level of support is the last extreme of Chinkou Span (0.9765).

USDCHF, D1
On the day chart the downward movement looks more like a correction than a trend reversal. Tenkan-Sen line is above the Kijun-Sen one, and the price is between them. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, the current cloud trend is upward. Further way down for the price is blocked by the level of Kijun-Sen (0.9710-0.9720). Meanwhile, Tenkan-Sen line becomes a resistance level (0.9855).

Key Levels
Resistance levels: 0.9855.
Support levels: 0.9765, 0.9710 - 0.9720.

Trading tips
The best time to open a short-term order is in the middle of the day with Stop Loss in the Kijun-Sen line. In the long term the upward trend is expected to continue if the price does not overcome the level of Kijun-Sen.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

31.07.2012

Pair EURUSD is in anticipating of ECB meeting

1. Current trend of EUR/USD

The pair EUR/USD is being corrected. The price has been gradually dropping down since closing session of the last week and at the end of the New-York session on Monday has reached the level of 1.2250. Up-to date the price got stuck in the narrow channel of 1.2250. After the rise in the pair EURUSD last week amid positive statements of Mario Draghi and promises that the ECB would do all possible to preserve the Eurozone, the price has rolled back slightly and is now in anticipation of the meeting which will be held on Thursday, 2 August. The European Central Bank may announce the resumption of the program to repurchase bonds in order to reduce the cost of servicing the Italian and Spanish debts as early as on 2 August. However, many experienced traders and analysts do not that the meeting would have significant outcome and try to be cautious.

2. important levels (Support and Resistance)

Correction will continue for a few days and the price will move in the range of the initial resistance level of 1.2320 and initial support level of 1.2225. We can expect significant price movement on Thursday after the meeting of ECB. Many skilled traders do not expect positive news from the ECB meeting and think that Draghi will not get support from the ECB board members. Market expects that the ECB will reduce interest rate and lower deposits rates. If the initial support level is broken down, the price will go down to 1.2175 and 1.2110, targeting at reaching the recent lows of .2040. Much will depend on fundamental data. The price may soar up to the main resistance level and the highs of the month at 1.2390 if radical measures to exit the crisis will be adopted at the meeting.

3. Best entry/exit points

The most feasible scenario: flat until the end of the week with further sharp downward movement. We cannot rule out possibility of ascending trend if ECB meeting will have positive outcome.
In such case it is advisable to put short-term positions in the corridor. Short-positions are preferable in the end of the week.

4. Supporting facts

Investors refrain from making risky actions in advance of the key political meetings of the European Central Bank and US Federal reserve.
Many people do not believe that ECB will be capable to develop specific plan to exit from the crisis and make initial steps in this direction, therefore traders are reluctant to buy the Euro.
Histogram MACD is in the positive area above its signal line; however it is directed downward, which is likely the signal for short-term downward correction.

GOLD: Analysis and forecast

1. Current trend of gold

The rate of gold has increased at the end of the last trading week. The first resistance level which was broken down by the “bulls” was the level of 1600. The level of 1610 was broken down next. However this was not the end of the rise. Finally, the price for gold went up to $1630 per ounce. Presently the gold traded in the range of 1622 – 1625; the level of 1630 has not been exceeded by the “bulls”.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

The key resistance level today is 1630.00, if this level s broken down, the next target will be at 1640.00. Support level is 1620.00 the next target for the “bears” will be 1601.00.

According to many analysts gold will strengthen its positions in the market in the long-term. Therefore, it is advisable to enter the market at the point of 1631.00 with protective order at 1619.00. It is also possible that slight correction up to the support level will take place. In this case order for buying should be placed at the level of 1618.50 with protective order at 1629.00.

3. Supporting facts

The rise in gold has been driven by a number of factors. First of all it is decline in the USD that was caused by promises and statements made by ECB. Secondly, it is expectations of the investors that the third round of quantitative easing will be launched by FOMC, the meeting of which will be held this week. If it happens the price will be able to exceed the level of $1640.00. The fact that, despite decline in a number of long positions by 26%, the price for gold continues to grow is another supportive factor. All these facts foster expectations that in the future the rise in price for the precious metal will continue.

Technical analysis of the trading instrument XAG/USD

1. Current trend of XAG/USD

All last week we witnessed that silver has been steadily rising in price. (fig.1) At the moment “Bullish” sentiment dominates at the market. However, short-term correction is possible. MACD indicator also indicates that decline in price is possible.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

After breaking down of the key level of 27.81, the price went to the next resistance level of 28.34. If “bulls” break through this level, they will try to exceed the price level of 28.60. The key level is now 29.00.
If correction takes place, the price will go to the nearest support levels of 27.81 and 27.42. The main target of “bears” is the level of 26.60.

3. Best entry/exit points

It is most likely that the rise in the rate will continue. In this case the best points to enter the market are the levels of 28.40 and 28.75 with stop losses at 28.15 and 26.45.
If resistance levels are strong and the rate starts to decline, short positions are recommended at the levels of 27.75 and 27.25 with protective orders at 28.05 and 27.50.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

01.08.2012

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4
On the four-hour chart the price went below the red line and entered the area between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen . Both lines are horizontal. The price chart remains between the red Tenkan-Sen and blue Kijun-Sen. The line Chinkou Span is above the chart, current cloud is ascending. Expected support level is Kijun-Sen (1.5619), resistance level is Tenkan-Sen (1.5677).

GBPUSD, D1
On the daily chart the price is inside the cloud. Indicator gives warming that opening of the position is undesirable. Both lines Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are horizontal and below the price chart, current cloud became upward after recent reversion. Expected resistance level is Senko Span B (1.5784), support levels ― Tenkan-Sen (1.5612) and Kijun-Sen (1.5579).

Key levels
Resistance levels: 1.5677 and 1.5784.
Support levels: 1.5619, 1.5612 and 1.5579.

Trading tips
On the chart with the lower timeframe downward movement should be confirmed by the breakdown of the level Kijun-Sen . If this happens in the next couple of days, it will be highly probable that the cloud would be broken through from below, as the distance between Senko Span A and B will be minimal in the period from 20:00 1.08.2012 to 4:00 3.08.2012. In the long-term exit from the cloud is expected, which will be confirmed by the breakdown of the level of Senko Span A or B.

Anastasia Glushkova
Analysts of LiteForex Group of Companies

USDCAD. Analysis and forecast

1. Current trend of the currency pair USDCAD

Last week the USD weakened against the CAD by more than 200 points.
Growth in the Canadian dollar was driven by the statement of Mario Draghi that ECB would do everything to support Eurozone.
This week the USD/CAD rate will depend on the decisions made by US FR, Bank of England and ECB.
It should be also noted that the US FR may launch another round of Quantitative easing (QE3) which will make the USD weaker against major currencies including the CAD.
Currently, the Cad has potential to strengthen against the USD.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Support levels: 1.0025 after that decline to1.0005 and 0.9980 is possible.

Resistance levels: 1.0055 and 1.0065, after that ascending movement to the levels of 1.0105 and 1.0170 may be possible.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

03.08.2012

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USDCHF

USDCHF, H4
Have a look at four-hour chart. The line Tenkan-Sen has crossed Kijun-Sen from bottom to the top under the chart, forming a figure “Golden cross” However the price has not reached the level of Senko Span A and went down to Tenkan-Sen again. The line Chinkou Span is approaching the price chart from above, current cloud is downward. Support levels are Tenkan-Sen(0.9785) and Kijun-Sen (0.9764).

USDCHF, D1
The chart with the higher timeframe is between the red Tenkan-Sen and blue Kijun-Sen; both lines are horizontal. The line Chinkou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is upward. The levels of support and resistance are Tenkan-Sen(0.9832) and Kijun-Sen (0.9717) respectively.

Key levels
Resistance level: 0.9832.
Support levels: 0.9785, 0.9764 and 0.9717.

Trading tips
Feasible scenario on the chart with the lower timeframe: the price will go back to the level of Senko Span A and the cloud will be broken down from above. However, horizontal line of Senko Span B will probably impede further rise in price. Confirmation of the trend reversal on H4 should be displayed on D1, if the price moves away from the level of Kijun-Sen and exceeds the level of Tenkan-Sen.

Anastasia Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[LF.Anastasia]

09.08.2012

EURUSD: When will European economy start to recover?

1.Current trend of EURUSD

After sharp rise in the pair EURUSD last week the price is being corrected this week with minor surges up and down. On Wednesday the Euro declined against the USD due to pressure caused by weak economic data from Germany. In June, volume of industrial output in Germany fell more than expected. Reports demonstrated to investors that although leaders of Eurozone and ECB do all possible to support the Euro, economies of the leading countries of Eurozone and a whole Europe continue to decline.
The Euro had dipped slightly under pressure and then consolidated at the level of 1.2360. Some traders and investors have concerns about the European currency; therefore many of them sell the Euro and buy the currencies of the countries with higher interest rates and better growth outlooks. This fact added more pressure on the pair EUR/USD.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Situation in the pair EURUSD is ambiguous. On the one hand leaders of Eurozone and European Central Banks expend a lot of efforts to support the Euro. On the other hand, economies of the EU countries, even the largest of them, continue to deteriorate, troubled countries, such as Spain, Italy, Portugal are in suspense, situation in Greece is even more complex and ambiguous.
Due to these facts, the pair EUR/USD has calmed down in anticipation of further news and is moving in the channel of 1.2330 – 1.2400. If “bearish” sentiment dominates and the price breaks down the initial support level, the pair may fall to the next support level of 1.2255. If the price consolidates at this level and in case of no news from European trading floors, downward movement may continue up to the key support level of 1.2160.
The rise in the pair EURUSD will be also possible if the leaders of Eurozone and European Central Banks will gather strength and implement plans to support European currency.

3. Best entry/exit points

European currency remains under pressure and positive prospects are not expected. Most likely further decline in the pair EUR/USD will take place in advance of news from leaders of EU and ECB.
Today, it is advisable to set short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.2260 (70), around the key support level.

4. Supporting facts

MACD indicator is in the positive area below the signal line and is directed downward, which gives a clear signal for opening short positions.
In the near future recovery of the European economy is unlikely, as all indicators demonstrate that decline will continue.

Crude oil BRENT

1. Current trend of crude oil BRENT

On Wednesday, due to positive US statistics, the rate of crude oil BRENT rose and reached the highs of the mid- May at the level of 113.22.
Labour productivity in the US increased by 1.6% in Q2 2012 against the forecast of 1.4%.

Number of vacancies in the US rose to the highest level in 4 years, up to 3.76 million.

Report of the US Ministry of Energy (EIA) also has its effect on the BRENT rate. According to this report, inventories of oil and oil products in the US reduced far more than expected.

Reduction of inventories, concerns about the situation in the Middle East and optimism about economic stimulus provide support to the rate of BRENT and push it to 3-month highs.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Support levels: 111.95 and 111.63. Breakdown of the level 111.10 will open the way to 110.45.

Resistance level: 112.78 and 113.22. In case of breakdown of this level, the way to the level 114.00 will be open.

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD

NZDUSD, H4
At the four-hour chart the lines Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen crosses above the cloud, forming the pattern “Dead cross”. The line Chinkou Span is approaching the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The lines Senko Span A and B are coming closer to each other. Resistance level is Kijun-Sen (0.8154), support level is ― Senko Span A (0.8120).

NZDUSD, D1
On the daily chart the situation is different. The line Tenkan-Sen is crossing Kijun-Sen from bottom to the top, which indicates continuation of the ascending trend. The line Chinkou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is upward. Although the price has rolled back to the level of Tenkan-Sen, strong support level is still at Kijun-Sen (0.8015).

Key levels
Support levels: 0.8120 and 0.8015.
Resistance level: 0.8154.

Trading tips
In the short-term intersection of the lines Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen will be one of the signals to open short positions. However, there is rather thick cloud on the way of the downward trend. Therefore, we shall expect confirmation from the line Chinkou Span or reversal of the current cloud. Daily chart does not confirm changes in the trend direction.

Anastasia Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[LF.Anastasia]

10.08.2012

USDCAD. Canadian dollar is steadily growing

1. Current trend of the currency pair USDCAD

The Canadian dollar has been growing against the USD for the whole week. On Thursday the USDCAD rate has reached the lows of 0.9912 since this May. Strengthening of the Canadian dollar was caused by high prices for raw materials and strong economic performance in Canada. The governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney said on Thursday that economy of the country has not been significantly affected by the crisis and may require tightening in the monetary policy. This statement inspired confidence in the “bears” and the rate of USDCAD continued downward movement. Currently the pair traded in the narrow channel of 0.9927-0.9910.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Initial resistance level: 0.9927; support level: 0.9910. It is most likely that the Canadian dollar will continue to strengthen next week. In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.9910, the price will continue downward movement to the target level of 0.9892, if this level is broken through, the price will move to the level 0.9856. Nevertheless we cannot rule out temporary correction of the rate. If the “bulls” breaks down support level of 0.9927, upward movement to the level 0.9951will be possible.

3. Best entry/exit points

In case of the first scenario, it will be reasonable to place an order for sale at the level of 0.9904 with protective order around 0.9942. Breakdown of the resistance level of 0.9927will be the signal for opening long positions, in this case it is better to enter the market at the level of 0.9936 with protective order around 0.9897.

4. Supporting facts

Currently the Canadian currency is supported by high prices for raw materials. Index CRB has been growing for over two months and the price of a barrel of crude oil BRENT has reached 113 USD this week. In general Canadian economy continues to grow moderately; however problems still remain. In May GDP grew by 0.1%, which was below expectations, foreign trade deficit increased by 1.02 billion CAD. It should be noted that Canadian economic statistics will be made public on Friday, including unemployment rate and number of jobs. If statistics will be positive, it will contribute to further strengthen of the Canadian currency.

5. Technical indicators

Moving average line of the indicator on the four-hour chart “Bollinger bands” shows that descending trend will continue; however price chart is below the line that is giving a chance to open short-term position for buying. Histogram MACD is below the zero line and has not reached its minimum, confirming downtrend in the market.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

13.08.2012

EURUSD: Price has shifted into correction stage and is waiting for a new momentum

1. Current trend of EURUSD

Smooth downward movement was observed in the pair last week. The price went down by 100 points; however there were no sharp surges that were caused by the traders’ concerns about European currency and low volatility. Situation with the Euro is ambiguous. Analysts of large banks do not expect that the Euro will recover in the near future. Currently, the pair is very vulnerable to the fundamental data. European currency may either start recovery or continue weakening depending on fundamental news.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

There is a lull in the pair EURUSD, the price is moving in the narrow channel without specific direction. Last week the price fell slightly and broke down the first support level of 1.2325. Now the price is moving between initial support level of 1.2335 and support level of 1.2240. Fundamental impetus is required in order to break down one of these levels, so that the price will go further to the key level. It is most likely that today European currency will continue to weaken and downward movement will go on.

3. Best entry/exit points

In the current situation it is advisable to place pending orders for sale, such as “stop”, slightly below the initial support level of 1.2240 and orders of purchase above the initial resistance level of 1.2335.
At the entrance of the market short position is more feasible.

4. Supporting facts

MACD indicator is in the negative area below the signal line and is moving downward, which is a clear signal for opening short positions. Looking at the pair with the help of indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, we can see on the four-hour price chart that the pair is being corrected and is moving in the cloud.
The following fundamental data has had an impact current situation:
It is expected that German index of economic expectations ZEW will improve.
Industrial output in Eurozone will probably reduce in June.
Economy of Eurozone seems to decline in Q2 this year, as debt crisis has affected confidence, demand and investment plans.

Forex: Analysis and forecast of BRENT

1. Current trend of crude oil BRENT

After slight decline on Friday, oil prices continue to rise up to three-month highs.
The fall in quotes on Friday has been associated with the decline in the forecast of demand in oil made by the International Energy Agency (IEA). By the end of the week the price of oil BRENT has consolidated below the level of $113per barrel. IEA has confirmed the decline in demand of oil and oil products in the USA and China and has predicted that demand in oil will drop by 300 thousand barrels per day in 2012-2013.
It is worth noting that monthly report of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did not agree with IEA forecast.
According to OPEC, demand for oil from the largest oil consumers (Japan, US, India), has grown in July.
In India demand for diesel fuel for generators increased after large-scale power cuts.
In Japan demand for oil has been growing, due to reduction in consumption of atomic power after the earthquake.
In the US consumption of oil has grown by 1.9% in July.
IEA and OPEC agree on one thing: the world’s stock of oil is expanding. Supplies of oil in 2012 will exceed its consumption.
However, the price of oil continues to grow despite gloomy forecasts.
On Monday the price of crude oil BRENT has exceeded $114 per barrel, amid fears of supply disruptions.
Prime-Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that chances that Iran will obtain nuclear weapons, outweighs all other threats to Israel.
Difficult situation in the region and a threat of military acts against Iran provides significant support to crude oil BRENT.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Support levels: 113.94, 113.10 and 112.36
Resistance levels: 114.65 and 115.55.

Analysis and forecast of the currency pair GBPUSD

1. Current trend of the currency pair GPBUSD

Throughout last week the British Pound traded in sideways trend in the range of 1.5560-1.5683. After the release of inflation report of the Bank of England and press-conference of Mr. King, the rate of GPB/USD has soared up sharply against the other currencies, despite the fact that GDP growth in the UK as well as inflation forecasts has been reduced.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Resistance level of 1.5683 has been a target of “bulls” since the beginning of the month. They tried to break through this level several times; however all their attempts were unsuccessful. At the moment, the pair traded around the level of 1.5683. If this level is exceeded, the price will go up to the new level of 1.5723 and further up to 1.5747.
If resistance level will be strong and the level will not be broken down once again, the price will go down to 1.5638 and 1.5560.

3. Best entry/exit points

In case of further growth, the best point to open long positions will be the levels of 1.5706 and 1.5738 with stop-loss at 1.5665 and 1.5710.
If resistance level 1.5683 will be strong and the price goes down, short positions are recommended around 1.5670 and 1.5620 with protective orders at the levels of 1.5690 and 1.5660.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

14.08.2012

XAUUSD: Long-term trend is positive

1. Current trend of XAUUSD

At the beginning of this week the pair XAU/USD fell sharply. During the opening NY session on 13 August gold dropped from the level of 1622.00 to 1607.70. Now, after downward movement we can observe correction and upward surge; the price has consolidated at the level of 1615.00. Competent analysts and many large investors predict that gold will grow significantly in the near future.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Currently, the pair has consolidated near initial resistance levels of 1616.00 and 161780. If the price breaks down these levels, further upward movement to the key resistance level of 1628.60 will be possible. If “bullish” sentiment continues to dominate, movement may reach the key resistance level of 1645.00, which are the local highs for the last three months. As for the long-term outlook for XAUUSD, many reputable publications and large investors believe that gold will significantly grow and the price of gold will increase up to 1900 USD for an ounce.

3. Best entry/exit points

The most feasible scenario for today is correction and further growth.
It is advisable to place long positions with profit taking at the level of 1628.00 and further at1644.00.
It is also possible that pending orders will be placed with the limit on purchase around 1609.00 with profit taking at the level of 1628.00 and more risky level of 1644.00.

4. Supporting facts

MACD indicator is in the positive area below the signal line and is directed downward, giving a signal for downtrend correction movement.
Long-term trend is positive that was secured by negative real rates. The consolidation period has been lasting for around a year and shall be completed soon. Gold will have one more growth lap, during which the price of gold will rise above 1900 USD per ounce.

Dmitry Likhachev

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USDCHF

USDCHF, H4

At the four-hour chart, the price broke through the lower bound of the cloud and rolled back to the horizontal area of Senkou Span A. The line Tenkan-Sen is above Kijun-Sen, and both lines have nearly merged. The line Chinkou Span is above the price line; current cloud is descending. Resistance levels are Kijun-Sen (0.9740) and Senkou Span A (0.9735).

USDCHF, D1

Let’s look at the daily chart. The Tenkan-Sen has crossed Kijun-Sen from below to above under the cloud, forming the pattern “Dead cross”. We got the second signal from the line Chinkou Span: intersection of the price chart from top to bottom. Current cloud is still ascending; however it is rapidly getting thinner. Support level is the upper bound of the cloud- the line Senkou Span A (0.9628).

Key levels

Support level: 0.9628.
Resistance levels: 0.9735-0.9740.

Trading tips

At the chart H4, intersection of the lines Tenkan-Sen as well as Kijun-Sen and the signal from Chinkou Span is confirmation of downtrend. It is the best moment to open sell position. Daily chart also indicates downward movement.

Anastasiya Glushkova

Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[LF.Anastasia]

15.08.2012

BRENT: Factors that promote growth

1. Current trend of crude oil BRENT

At the trades on Tuesday September’s futures price of crude oil Brent has soared up to the level of $114.03 per barrel, rising in price by $0.43. This price dynamics was driven by the publication of positive statistics from France, Germany and USA.

Volume of retail sales in the US rose by 0.8% in July 2012 compared with June, against analysts’ forecast of 0.2%. GDP in France grew by 0.3% per annum versus forecast of 0.2%. Among all European countries it was Germany that showed the best performance, as usual. Last quarter German GDP rose by 0.3% against previous reporting period, contrary to analysts’ expectations of growth of 0.2%.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Important resistance level today will be 114.50, if the price consolidates above this level the next target will be the level of 116.00. In the long-term the price may go up to 120.00 USD. The levels of 113.20 , 111.20 and 104.00 will become support levels.

3. Best entry/exit points

The best entry point for purchases will be the level of 114.70. For placing contracts for sale it would be reasonable to enter the market at the level of 112.50.

4. Supporting facts

Currently, there are several factors that support the price of the North Sea crude oil Brent. First of all, it is the reduction in supplies from the North Sea in August and September, due to maintenance. Secondly, it is ongoing political instability in the Middle East countries (Libya, Iran, Syria). And finally it is the prospect of additional quantitative easing. Main news for investors today will be the release of the data on oil inventories from the US Department of Energy.
Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect reduction in inventories of the “black gold” at the wholesale warehouses of the country by 1.75 million barrels, which will support growth of quotes of oil futures.

AUDUSD Australian dollar is under pressure

1. Current trend of the currency pair AUDUSD

The Australian dollar started this week with the decline, losing more than 80 points by Wednesday. The weakening in the Australian currency was driven by negative economic news from Europe. GDP in Eurozone fell by 0.2% in Q2 compared with the previous quarter, which agreed with experts’ forecasts; on annual basis the fall amounted to 0.4%. Situation was deteriorated by the ongoing recession in the economies of Greece and Italy and zero growth rate in the economy of France.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Currently, the price is actively testing support level of 1.0479, however “bears” have not been able to consolidate steadily below this level. If they manage to do so, downward price movement to the target level of 1.0441may continue; if this level is broken down, the price will go to 1.0381. This scenario is the most feasible amid sustained weakening in the European and world economies. Temporary correction will be possible only in case of favourable news from the US and China. In this case the price can break down resistance level of 1.0501 and continue to move up to 1.0527.

3. Best entry/exit points

In case of the first scenario it is advisable to enter the market at the level of 1.0471 with protective order around 1.0514. Breakdown of the resistance level 1.0501 will be the signal for opening short positions for buying. In this case position can be opened at the level of 1.0506 with protective order around 1.0451.

4. Supporting facts

The Australian currency is traditionally supported by high commodity prices; index CRB resumed its growth after three days of decline. The price of the North Sea oil Brent remains high as well; however its positions are weakening and it traded at the level of 113.5 USD per barrel. Oil prices exert pressure due to the information that large Hedge Funds have reduced amount of bets on growth of commodity assets, reflecting investors’ pessimistic sentiment. The fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia revised forecast of GDP growth in 2012 from 3.0% up to 3.5% had a positive effect on the AUD rate. Nevertheless, high pressure on the AUD is caused by continuing deterioration of economic situation in the countries of Eurozone.

5. Technical indicators

On the daily chart the indicator “Bollinger bands” is not giving clear signals, while moving average line is directed upward, which may be a weak signal for continuation of the uptrend. Histogram MACD is in the positive area and is crossing the signal line from top to bottom, giving a signal that uptrend will shift into downtrend. In addition, the price chart indicates possibility of forming double M-shape top that may be the signal of significant fall in the rate of AUDUSD in the medium-term.

Technical analysis of the current pair USDJPY

1. Current trend of USDJPY

As we can see on the daily chart trades are taking place in the average downward channel. Since the support line of 78.15 had not broken down, the “bulls” made another attempt and the pair went up to the level of 78.80. Histogram MACD is still in the negative area above the signal line. Stochastic Oscillator has left the oversold zone. Both of these factors indicate probability of correction in the near future.

2. Important levels (Support and Resistance)

Currently, the pair USDJPY traded around the level of 78.80. Next resistance levels will be 78.90 and 79.10.
These levels are the major target for the “bulls” with further growth target up to the level of 79.50.
The main target of “bears” is resistance level of 78.15. It is hardly probable that they will approach this level in the near future.

3. Best entry/exit points

It is most likely that the exchange rate of USDJPY will grow up. In this case it is advisable to enter the market at the levels of 79.00 and 79.20 with protective orders of 78.85 and 79.05. If resistance will be strong and the rate starts to decline, short positions shall be opened around 78.55 and 78.35 with stop loss at 78.70 and 78.50.