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[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen was still set to weaken

In the forex currency market rate of the Japanese yen on Thursday, spent the day, a little strengthening, which does not change the general tendency to weaken.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic oscillator remains in the overbought area and retains the same signal strength.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 83.40 pair will go to 83.60 and 84.00.

The macroeconomic situation in the Japanese economy remained stable in the final week.

Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q / q (-0.7% y / y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled-Y437, the forecast of 3 billion + Y322, 3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q / q with growth forecast at 0.3% q / q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.

At a meeting of the Bank of Japan, all remained the same: the controller has kept interest rates in the range of 0-0.1% per annum, refusing to be reviewed and the amount of the asset repurchase program.

At the moment the asset repurchase program of 30 billion yen, it was extended only a month earlier to 10 billion yen. This time the government once again urged the BOJ to extend QE, but the bank has not taken such a decision.

The Bank of Japan explained that the extension is now engaged in lending programs to stimulate economic growth to 3.5 trillion yen from 3 trillion yen previously.

In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar is preparing for the recovery

Australian dollar on the forex currency market trading with an increase in the area after the departure of local minimal on Thursday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, and decreased signal to sell. Stochastic oscillator starts to grow, starting from the oversold, and generates a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0550 the pair will go to 1.0560 and 1.0580.

Recall that the sale of the Australian dollar in the middle of the week because of the increased interest in reducing the risk to investors.

It became known yesterday that inflation expectations in Australia in March were at 2.7% vs. 2.8% level in February.

Australian dollar earlier in the week regain the publication of weak data on the Chinese economy, which came out below expectations - in particular, we are talking about the levels of exports and the size of the trade deficit. As China's largest trading partner of Australia, the Aussie is actively responding to statistics from the Middle Kingdom.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% qoq. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

RBA meeting last week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand.

Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m / m (-14.6% y / y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household.
However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CAD: Canadian dollar remains within the range

In the forex currency market Canadian dollar remained in the corridor have losses on Thursday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is trading in negative territory along the signal line and do not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is aimed at the lateral movement and does not give a specific signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 0.9900 the pair will go to 0.9880 and 0.9870.

Canadian dollar supported by high oil prices.

Previous statistics showed that in the IV quarter of economic growth in Canada slowed down - the real GDP in December, up 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m, but in general, in the final quarter of last Gozha Canadian economy grew by only by 0.4% against 1.0% in the III quarter. It affects a strong external influence and the decline of interest in the world to energy in the final year.

According to the head of the Bank of Canada, Mr. Carney, the current levels of interest rates correspond to the monetary situation. Recall that in mid-January, the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 1.0% per annum, which in general the market is not surprised. Bank of Canada expressed concern on the eve of the state of the housing sector - according to the regulator, 10% decline in this segment may lead to a reduction in consumption by 1%, despite the fact that the bulk of home equity loans used to finance consumption.

CPI in December dipped by 0.6% m / m (+2.3% y / y) vs. -0.1% m / m Despite the evidence, the data require some explanation. The annual CPI increase was minimal in February 2011, but she declined due to inflation decrease the cost of gasoline and other fuels.

Current account balance in the IV quarter was-CAD $ 10,33 billion in pending-CAD $ 9,6 billion in January, prices of manufactured goods to Canada grew by 0.3% while the forecast growth of 0.1%. At the same time the main driver of growth was oil prices.

Last week it was reported that the unemployment rate in Canada in February fell to 7.4% from 7.6% previously, while the number of jobs decreased by 2.8 thousand.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro traded peacefully on Friday

The EUR/USD in the forex currency market trading stable on Friday morning.

By 10.20 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3089 against the close of trading yesterday at 1.3079.

The International Monetary Fund agreed on a package of participation in the program for Greece - 1.65 billion euros will be allocated immediately. In general, the news is already reflected in current prices, so the market is not particularly reacted to the information.

Investors are waiting for the evening, the block statistics on the U.S., which could support the dollar.

Thus, the main couple has a chance to spend the final weeks of calm.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will auction Friday in the range of 1.3010-1.3120.

 

[royan]

CHF: Swiss Franc resumed growth

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate has beentraded with the increase at the end oflast week due to stable external background and positive investors’ sentiments.

Forex forecast:MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes up in the negative area and is givinga buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the overbought zone and isgiving a sell signal.

Forexrecommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9150 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9130and 0.9110. Consolidation close to the current levels is possible.

Marco-economicsituation in Switzerland is stable on the Monday morning.

GDP in the countryrose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero changes (+1.1%y/y). The data is quite good, which means that Swiss economy is getting used toexpensive Franc. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however itdemonstrated the signs of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increasedto 49.0 points in February against theforecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Monday showed that real retailsales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y inJanuary.

According to thedata released earlier unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4% inFebruary, with no changes.

Last year interventionscost 17.8 billion francs to Swiss National Bank. Mr. Jordan from SNB saidcommenting this information that restriction on the growth of Franc has itsaffect on the market and helped to stabilize outcomes of the year. Trade balanceamounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50billion francs. The report demonstrated that export reduced by 3.4% last monthagainst preliminary expectations of growth by 6.1% last month; import rose by3.6% (preliminary forecast was by +7.6% m/m).

Three month Liborrate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general,the view of SNB on monetary policy has not changed except for the forecast foreconomy. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be from 0.6% tо +0.6%, growth of GDP will be 1.0% this year.

Inflation fell by 0.4%m/m (-0.8% y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. Thishas been the fourth time in a row of the index decline and at the same time itbecame the maximal fall since October 2009.

 

[royan]

JPY: Japanese Yen started to strengthen gradually on Monday

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen has beentraded slightly upward at the end of last week continuing the trend ofThursday. Buyers are reluctant to come back to JPY after mass sales.

Forex forecast:MACD indicator is going up in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY andmaintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zoneand maintains a previous signal.

Forex recommendations:in case of breakdown at 83.40 the pair will go to 83.60 and 84.00.

It became known earlierthat revised index of coincident indicators in Japan amounted to -0.3% m/m inJanuary, revised index of leading indicators demonstrated growth of 1.1% onmonthly basis.

Minutes of the Februarymeeting of the Bank of Japan said that some members of the Bank think that itwould be expedient to establish threshold for inflation target at the level of1-2%, while one vote was given for the target at 2%.

No changes tookplace at the meeting of the Bank of Japan in March: the Regulator left theinterest rate in the range of 0-0.1% per annum, assets repurchase program hasnot been revised either. Presently, volume of assets repurchase program amountsto 30 billion yen; it has been expanded by 10 billion yen a month earlier.Government insisted on expanding QE again; however the Bank did not take such decision.The Bank of Japan clarified that they have been dealing with expansion oflending program targeted at stimulation of economic growth to 3.5 trillion yenfrom 3 trillion yen earlier.

Statisticsreleased earlier showed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y)in Q4. In addition, balance of current account amounted to -Y437.3 billion againstthe forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4%q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.

Note that GDP hasbeen revised upward although it is still in the negative zone. Trade balance ofthe country is still in the state of deficit.

In addition, index of economic observers in Japan reduced to 45.9 points in February against theforecast of 46 points. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa notedearlier that the regulator intends to easy monetary policy until inflationreaches the target of 1%.

 

[royan]

AUD: Australian Dollar runs a surplus

The Australian Dollar rate has run a surplus at the Forex currency market last Friday dueto the surge of market enthusiasm.

Forex forecast: MACDindicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the positive area, it is ready to crossthe signal line from top to bottom and maintains a sell signal. StochasticOscillator goes up pushing away from oversold zone and is shaping a buy signal.

Forex recommendations:in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0590 the pair will go to 1.0610 and1.0630.

Recall that salesof the Australian Dollar intensified in the middle of last week due to decreaseof interest in risk among investors.

According to the recentrelease of the National Association of Retailers in Australia, growth ofinternet sales has became a catalyst for decline in employment sector in the retail trade sector. Forecastof the Association shows that by 2015 sector of retail sales will lose half ofjobs: it will happen if government does not abolish taxes for companies in thissector and government will not promote abolishing of import duties on goodspurchases.

According tostatistics of the Association, internet sales amounted to 4% of total sales in2011 by 2015 this index can rise to 9.5%.

It became knownearlier that inflation expectations in Australia were at the level of 2.7% inMarch against the level of 2.8% in February.

Australian Dollarrate has to regain from weak data on Chinese economy which was beyondexpectations; it concerns levels of export and size of foreign trade deficit inparticular. As China is one of the main trade partner of Australia the AUDreacts actively to statistics from this country. Inflation in Q4 showed zerogrowth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis.

Retail sales fellby 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Meeting of ARB lastweek has neutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of4.25% per annum. Comments of the Bank Governor Mr. Stevens were quite stock. Henoted that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policyunchanged.

Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast ofgrowth of 5 thousand. Such data can cause revise of the interest rate in ARB next month.

 

[royan]

NZD: New Zealand Dollar is ready to resume growth

At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollarrate was traded upward last Friday reflecting positive sentiment in the market.

Forex forecast:MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD it is going down, andis prepared to break signal line from top to bottom and is giving a sellsignal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and is giving abuy signal.

Forexrecommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8250 the pair will goto 0.8260 and 0.8290. Consolidation at the current level is possible.

Situation in NewZealand seems stable in terms of macro-statistics. External background bearsthe most influence on NZD.

Earlier ReserveBank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% asexpected. RBNZ noted in the comments that there is no point to revise interestrate at the moment.

Index of businessactivity in the service sector BNZ rose to 53.6 points in January againstpreliminary expectations of 50.9 points. The report showed that growth has beenrecorded in four out of five components of the index; orders of new companieshave become the main catalyst for growth. Employment in the sector increased to54.2 points which is the maximum since November 2007.

House price indexREINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectationsof decline 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country declined to 6.3% in Q42011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive andindicates that employment sector being one of the main supportive factors forthe economy can enable stability even in case of external pessimisticinfluence.

Statisticsreleased last week showed that activity in the manufacturing sector of NewZealand increased by 1.3% in Q4 against the fell of 1.4% earlier. The datasupported the currency. According to the previous data export price in NewZealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4 against -4.0% in Q3. Import prices rose by 3.2%on quarterly basis for the reported period against decline of 3.4%.

Activity index inthe service sector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balanceamounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion inNovember. However positive factor of the index has already been incorporatedinto the price. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3against the forecast of +0.6% on Quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q(+1.5% y/y) against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1.

 

[royan]

ROUBLE rose again in pairing with USD and EURO

In the currency section of the MICEX on Friday, the Russian Rouble rate concluded trades with the rise in pairing with the USDamid positive sentiments at the world capital market.

The trading session for the USD closed at the level of29.35 roubles. The Euro finished at the level of 38.43 roubles.

Dual currency basket value amounted to 33.46roubles (+4 kopeks).

Therefore, theRouble has gained support from generally favourable sentiments in the marketand the rise of Euro/USD at Forex.

Presumably thepair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 29.30-29.45 Roubles for USD at thetrading session on Monday.

 

[royan]

EUR/USD: Euro has got the ground for growth at the end of last week

The pair EUR/USD concluded trading session with thegrowth on Friday amid positive American statistics.

Trades on Fridayconcluded at the level of 1.3174 versus the start level at 1.3080.

The U.S. data releasedlast night became the reason for enthusiasm. Number of claims for unemploymentbenefits decreased by 14 thousand within a week, to the level of 351 thousand whichwas above the forecast. In addition, index of producer prices rose by 0.4% m/min February which also supported positive sentiments at the trading floors.

As long as sharpissues of European debt problems went to the sidelines, the market has theground to start purchases.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3050-1.3220at the trading session on Monday.