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[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: EURO STRENGTHENSAT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK

The pair EUR/USD goes up at the trading session onTuesday as positive statistics from Eurozone has produced an effect on the Forexcurrency market.
Trades on Monday closed at the level of 1.3220 versus starting level at 1.3140.
The data on Eurozone released yesterday has become the reason forenthusiasm: balance of payment surplus of ECB increased for the reportingperiod amounting to 4.5 billion euro against 3.3 billion euro. Earlier we wereable to observe attempt to release tension over the major acute issue- Europeandebt problem. Market received grounds to start purchases due to the statementof the Greek Prime Minister about resuming growth of GDP in less than two yearsperiod, while new restructure of the debt will not be required.
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3230-1.3310 at thetrading session on Tuesday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: BRITISH POUND ISAIMED AT 1.5930

At the Forex currency market the pair GBP/USD goes up on Wednesday due to overall weakness in the American currency andspeculative demand for the Euro.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pairGBP/USD remains in the positive area; we can observe the rise, indicating thatbuy signal is being maintained. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the overboughtzone and is giving a buy signal.
Forex recommendations: testing and breakdownof the level 1.5930 are going to take place,if these succeeds, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.6010. Specifiednarrow range represents strong resistance for pair’s quotes; long-termtrend is upward.
Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Broadbent noted last week, that he did not approve abolition of the economicstimulus program in short term. He believes that scrapping of the stimulus programcould be well grounded later but only if dramatic improvement will be made inthe lending and financing sector.
Representative of the Bank of England Mr.Miles noted earlier that inflation in Britain will continue to decline, andthis will be triggered by reduction in a number of jobs and decline in reservecapacity. At the same time, policy of quantitative easing will promote the risein assets price and increase in demand. Miles found it difficult to assess theimpact of assets purchase; however he believes that if it were not for QE,domestic demand would have been significantly affected.
Mr.Weale noted earlier that the rates couldbe raised earlier than the regulator would start to roll back stimulusmeasures. At the same time, Weale does not think that easy attitude toinflation for the sake of economic stimulus is a good idea.
According to the released data, total volume of mortgage lendingin the UK amounted to 10.7 billion pounds in February against 10.65 billionpounds in January. The data demonstrates stability in the construction market,which is favourable for the national economy in short term.
Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February,number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector preventseconomic recovery of the country in general.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: JAPANESE YEN REMAINSUNDER PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY

The Japanese Yen rate maintains trend to weaken at the Forex currency market this week. Unrestrained growth ofthe currency pair USD/JPY has been going on for seven consecutive tradingsessions: from the level of 76.50 to the current highs of 84.00 and targeted growth at 84.75.
Forex forecast: MACD indicatorfor the pair USD/JPY is going up in the positive area and maintains a buysignal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving abuy signal.
Forex recommendations: in case ofbreakdown at 84.00 the pair will go to 84.00 and 84.75.
No changes took place at themeeting of the Bank of Japan in March: the Regulator left the interest rate inthe range of 0-0.1% per annum; assets repurchase program has not been revisedeither.
Presently, volume of assets repurchase program amounts to 30 billion yen; it has been expanded by 10billion yen a month earlier. Government insisted on expanding QE again; howeverthe Bank did not take such decision.
The Bank of Japan clarified that at the moment they have been working on expansion of lending program aiming to stimulate economic growth up to 3.5 trillion yen from 3 trillion yen earlier.
The head of the Bank of Japan Mr.Shirakawa noted earlier that the regulator intends to easy monetary policy untilinflation reaches the target of 1%.
Minutes of the February meeting of the Bank of Japan showed that some members of the Bank think that it wouldbe expedient to establish thres hold for inflation target at the level of 1-2%,while one vote was given for the target at 2%.
Note: that GDP has been revisedupward although it is still in the negative zone. Trade balance of the countryremains in deficit.
Statistics released earliershowed that real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. Inaddition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against theforecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/qlast quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q.
In addition, decline in the Yenwas caused by rumours about revolution in China. There has not been anyofficial information about it, however mass media in the West reported unexplained motions in Beijing and an increase in number of police and combat equipment.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: SWISS FRANC KEEPS ONGROWING AGAINST USD ON WEDNESDAY

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate keeps on growing this week, due to short term improvements inthe situation with Greek debt problem and investors’ speculative sentiments.
Forex forecast: MACD indicatorfor the pair USD/CHF goes down in the negative area and is giving a sellsignal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into the oversold zone and is alsogiving a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: in case ofbreakdown at 0.9110 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9070 и0.9050.
Macro-economic situation in Switzerland is stable on Wednesday morning.
According to statistics released earlier, unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4% in February-nochanges have been reported.
GDP in the country rose by 0.1%q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This isgood data, indicating that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates thesigns of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 pointsin February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Mondays howed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growthby 1.7% y/y in January.
Inflation fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8%y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. This has been thefourth consecutive decline in the index and maximal fall since October 2009.
The regulator expects thatinflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо+0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.
Last year interventions cost 17.8billion francs to Swiss National Bank. Mr. Jordan from SNB commenting this information said that restriction in the growth of Franc has had its effect onthe market and helped to stabilize outcomes of the year.
Trade balance amounted to -1.553billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50 billion francs. Thereport demonstrated that export reduced by 3.4% last month against preliminary expectations of growth of 6.1% last month; import rose by 3.6% (preliminary forecast was +7.6% m/m).
Three- month Libor rate of SwissNational Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB views onmonetary policy remained unchanged.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD:AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR REVERSED DOWNWARD TO THE SUPPORT LEVEL AT 1.0370

At the Forex currency market theAustralian Dollar rate had reached its target level at 1.0640 yesterday andafter that quotes reversed downward. First support level was reached quickly at1.0500. Current target for decline is at the level of 1.0370. Specified levelsare oversold foundations for slow moving average of Ichimoku indicator.
Forex forecast: MACD indicatorfor the pair AUD/USD has shifted into negative area, after moving through thesignal line from top to bottom and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillatorgoes down, pushing away from the overbought zone and is not giving a clearsignal.
Forex recommendations: in case ofbreakdown at the level of 1.0500 the pair will go to 1.0400 and 1.0370.
Comments of the BNRC Company hasa negative impact on the rate of the AUD. Company’s management wasstrongly concerned and circulated a press- release expressing dissatisfactionwith the tax on royalties; the AUD traders were quick to close positions. Dueto these comments the pair AUD/USD instantly fell to 1.0550.
China is one of the main tradingpartners of Australia; therefore the AUD reacts strongly to statistics fromthis country. Latest statistics from China did not make investors happy either.
It became known earlier thatinflation expectations in Australia were at the level of 2.7% in March againstthe level of 2.8% in February.
Inflation in Q4 showed zerogrowth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis.Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%.
Statistics released earliershowed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier.Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5thousand.
Such data can trigger the reviseof the interest rate in ARB next month.
Meeting of the RBA last week hasneutral outcome: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of 4.25% perannum. Comments of the Bank’s Governor Mr. Stevens were just plain: hesaid that the state of Australian economy enables to keep monetary policyunchanged.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD:NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR IS AIMED AT SALES IN SHORT-TERM

At the Forex currency market theNew Zealand rate has interrupted upward movement, reflecting overallstrengthening of the positions of the USD at Forex market. Quotes are to go upto the support level of 0.8150 on Wednesday.
Forex forecast: MACD indicatorfor the pair NZD/USD goes down in the positive area reflecting“bull” divergence and indicating low purchases and starting sales.Stochastic Oscillator has left overbought zone and goes down in the neutralzone giving a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: off themarket: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8170 the pair will go to 0.8150 и0.8090.
Activity index in the servicesector fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to+NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November.However, this positive factor has already been incorporated into the price. GDPin New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of+0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) against thelevel of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1.
Statistics released last weekshowed that that activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand increasedby 1.3% in Q4 against the decline of 1.4% earlier. The data supported thecurrency.
Situation in New Zealand seemsstable in terms of macro-statistics. External background bears the mostinfluence on NZD.
Earlier Reserve Bank of NewZealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% as expected. RBNZnoted in the comments that there is no point to revise interest rate at themoment.
According to the data releasedearlier, export prices in New Zealand rose by 1.7% q/q in Q4 against -4.0% inQ3. Import prices increased by 3.2% on quarterly basis for the reporting periodagainst previous decline of 3.4%.
Index of business activity BNZ inthe service sector rose to 53.6 points in January against preliminary expectationsof 50.9 points. The report showed that growth has been recorded in four out offive components of the index; orders of new companies have become the maincatalyst for growth. Employment in the sector increased to 54.2 points which isthe maximum since November 2007.
House price index REINZ fell by1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 2011 againstthe level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. The data is positive and indicates thatemployment sector as one of the main supportive factors for the economy canguarantee stability even in case of external pessimistic impact.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: EUROGAVE WAY TO USD IN FIGHT FOR THE LEVEL OF 1.3230

The EUR/USD is being corrected onWednesday as the Forex currency market has been affected by the comments of theU.S. Federal Reserve head about problems in the economy of the country.
Trades stopped at the level of1.3220 on Tuesday against starting session level of 1.3240.
Enthusiasm for the USD wasstirred up by declaration of Mr. Bernanke that economic situation willultimately improve, prospects for economic development are optimistic.
Members of the U.S. Federalreserve intend to continue to watch closely outgoing data on economic reportsand analyze financial indices.
Mostlikely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3230-1.3150 at the tradingsession on Wednesday.

 

[Shuvalov]

GBP: BRITISH POUND LOSES TIME BEING SLOW IN COMING TO THE LEVEL OF 1.5930

At the Forex currency market the British Pound rate is volatile on Thursday since speculative demand for the Euro hasbeen resumed.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; we can observe the rise, which indicates that buy signal is being maintained. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the overbought zone and is giving a buy signal.
Forex recommendations: testing and breakdown of the level 1.5930; if these succeed, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5950 and 1.6010. Specified narrow range above represents strong resistance for pair’s quotes; however long-term trend is upward.
Representative of the Bank of England Mr.Broadbent noted last week, that he did not approve abolition of the economic stimulus program in short term. He believes that scrapping of the stimulus program could be well grounded later but only if dramatic improvement will be made in the lending and financing sector.
Representative of the Bank of England Mr.Miles noted earlier that inflation in Britain will continue to decline, and this will be triggered by reduction in a number of jobs and decline in reserve capacity. At the same time, policy of quantitative easing will promote the risein assets price and increase in demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of assets purchase; however he believes that if it were not for QE, domestic demand would have been significantly affected.
Mr.Weale noted earlier that the rates couldbe raised before the regulator would start to roll back stimulus measures. At the same time, Weale does not think that easy attitude to inflation for thesake of economic stimulus is a good idea.
Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general.
According to the latest data, total volume of mortgage lending inthe UK amounted to 10.7 billion pounds in February against 10.65 billion pounds in January. The data demonstrates stability in the construction market, which is favourable for the national economy in short term.

 

[Shuvalov]

USD REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED IN PAIRING WITH ROUBLE

At the trading session in the currency section of the MICEX, the Russian Rouble rate remains virtually unchanged in pairing with the USD which can be explained by differently directed movement at the world capital markets. Starting session did not bring any changes in the pair USD/Rouble.
The trading session for the USD started at the level of 29.27roubles (+6 kopeks). The Euro amounted to 38.76 roubles (+12 kopeks).
Dual currency basket value started at 33.53 roubles on Thursday (+3 kopeks).
Therefore, strengthening in the USD and the rise in the Euro is associated with reduction of the global prices for oil and general strengthening in European currency at Forex amidpreservation of uncertainty in the world capital markets.
Presumably the pair USD/Roublewill be in the channel of 29.10-29.35 Roubles for USD at the trading session onThursday.

 

[Shuvalov]

CHF: SWISS FRANC GOT STUCKIN THE NARROW RANGE

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to consolidate at the level of 0.9110 on Thursday amid tension which has been built up in Europe over further development oflevers of pressure on peripheral countries of Eurozone. Declaration of the headof the U.S Federal Reserve about reluctance to assist Europe in solving debtproblems has had its impact as well.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone and is also giving a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9110 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9070 and 0.9050. The top level of the pair is restricted 0.9135.
Macro-economic situation in Switzerland is stable on Thursday morning.
The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо+0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.
Last year interventions cost 17.8 billion francs to Swiss National Bank. Mr. Jordan from SNB commenting this information said that restriction in the growth of Franc has had its effect onthe market and helped to stabilize outcomes of the year.
Trade balance amounted to -1.553 billion francs in January against the forecast of -2.50 billion francs. Thereport demonstrated that export reduced by 3.4% last month against preliminaryexpectations of growth of 6.1% last month; import rose by 3.6% (preliminaryforecast was +7.6% m/m).
Three-month Libor rate of Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB views onmonetary policy remained unchanged.
According to statistics releasedearlier, unemployment rate in Switzerland amounted to 3.4% in February-nochanges have been reported.
GDP in the country rose by 0.1%q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). This isgood data, indicating that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it demonstrates thesigns of recovery. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 pointsin February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics released on Mondayshowed that real retail sales increased by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in January.
Inflation fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8%y/y) in January against expectations of decline of 0.2% m/m. This has been the fourth consecutive decline in the index and maximal fall since October 2009.