USDJPY rises as government bond yield differential supports the dollar
The probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike as early as October is 55%.
USDJPY forecast: key takeaways
According to Reuters, the market estimates the probability of another rate hike at the October meeting at around 55%
The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 1.25%
USDJPY forecast for 23 September 2026: 158.90
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY currently remains largely in favour of the dollar despite the Bank of Japan's tighter monetary policy. On 16 September, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%.
The Bank of Japan has also shifted towards tighter policy. On 18 September, the regulator raised the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
JP 225 under BoJ pressure: record-high rate weighs on Japanese equities as AI tries to support the market
After rising, the JP 225 index is forming another downward wave under pressure from high interest rates. The current price stands at 65,453.0.
JP 225 forecast: key takeaways
Japanese equities are supported by AI and semiconductor stocks
The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 1.3%
JP 225 forecast for 24 September 2026: 66,160.0 and 64,960.0
Fundamental analysis
The JP 225 forecast for today, 24 September 2026, takes into account that the fundamental backdrop remains mixed: Japanese equities are supported by AI and semiconductor stocks, while rising JGB yields and tighter BoJ policy create opposing pressure.
Following a strong rally in the US technology sector, Japanese manufacturers of AI components and equipment received fresh momentum.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US Tech has reached a new all-time high and is now correcting. The current price is 30,682.
US Tech forecast: key takeaways
The US Services Purchasing Managers Index rose to 58.7
The yield on 30-year US Treasuries rose to 5.44%, the highest level since 2004
Fundamental analysis
The combination of two factors — a sharp rise in long-term US Treasury yields and a much stronger-than-expected services business activity index — is creating a primarily negative backdrop for US Tech. This does not point to a deterioration in the US economy.
This is particularly important for US Tech. Technology companies are valued to a large extent on the basis of expected cash flows and profits to be generated many years into the future.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
EURUSD loses ground amid hawkish Federal Reserve expectations
The EURUSD pair has resumed its decline, with traders focusing on the 1.1360 support level. The rate currently stands at 1.1380.
EURUSD forecast: key takeaways
US consumer inflation expectations rose in September
The market estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October at 69.2%
Key US inflation and labour market data will be released this week
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate is declining after a correction that lasted for two consecutive trading sessions. The price is actively testing the 1.1360 support level; a breakout below this mark could accelerate the downward move and strengthen bearish momentum.
Meanwhile, Friday’s data showed a smaller-than-expected deterioration in US consumer confidence in September. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 48.1 points.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Gold (XAUUSD) plunges 4% as market tests the 4,110 USD level
Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain just above 4,100 after falling by around 4% in the previous session, with virtually every factor currently weighing on the precious metal.
XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways
Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations is supporting oil prices and increasing inflation risks
The market estimates the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October at around 70%
Treasury yields are also reaching new multi-year highs
Fundamental analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 4,100 after falling by approximately 4% in the previous session. Pressure on XAUUSD persists due to high oil prices and the associated inflation risks, which are fuelling expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening.
Oil prices have resumed their rise following reports that Iranian representatives doubt an agreement with the US can be reached before the November midterm elections.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
