Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY rises as government bond yield differential supports the dollar

The probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike as early as October is 55%.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• According to Reuters, the market estimates the probability of another rate hike at the October meeting at around 55%
• The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 1.25%
• USDJPY forecast for 23 September 2026: 158.90

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY currently remains largely in favour of the dollar despite the Bank of Japan's tighter monetary policy. On 16 September, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%.

The Bank of Japan has also shifted towards tighter policy. On 18 September, the regulator raised the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 under BoJ pressure: record-high rate weighs on Japanese equities as AI tries to support the market

After rising, the JP 225 index is forming another downward wave under pressure from high interest rates. The current price stands at 65,453.0.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• Japanese equities are supported by AI and semiconductor stocks
• The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 1.3%
• JP 225 forecast for 24 September 2026: 66,160.0 and 64,960.0

Fundamental analysis

The JP 225 forecast for today, 24 September 2026, takes into account that the fundamental backdrop remains mixed: Japanese equities are supported by AI and semiconductor stocks, while rising JGB yields and tighter BoJ policy create opposing pressure.

Following a strong rally in the US technology sector, Japanese manufacturers of AI components and equipment received fresh momentum.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US Tech rises on optimism in the AI sector

US Tech has reached a new all-time high and is now correcting. The current price is 30,682.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

• The US Services Purchasing Managers Index rose to 58.7
• The yield on 30-year US Treasuries rose to 5.44%, the highest level since 2004

Fundamental analysis

The combination of two factors — a sharp rise in long-term US Treasury yields and a much stronger-than-expected services business activity index — is creating a primarily negative backdrop for US Tech. This does not point to a deterioration in the US economy.

This is particularly important for US Tech. Technology companies are valued to a large extent on the basis of expected cash flows and profits to be generated many years into the future.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team