Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

AUD found support in statistics. Overview for 21.03.2024

The Australian dollar has shifted to an upward trend against the US dollar. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6621.

The Aussie received significant support from the Australian employment market statistics. The number of jobs increased by 116.5 thousand, surpassing the forecasted rise of 40.0 thousand. The unemployment rate in February dropped to 3.7% compared to the expected 4.0%.

Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate at 4.35% per annum. It has remained stable for the third consecutive meeting. The current interest rate is the highest in 12 years.

In its commentary, the RBA refrained from signalling further interest rate increases. This shows that the RBA is confident in the inflationary outlook and sees evidence of price cooling.

Additionally, the AUD benefits from the decline in the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBP found itself amid bears. Overview for 22.03.2024

The UK pound sterling weakened noticeably against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2643.

As expected, the March BoE meeting ended predictably, with the interest rate kept at 5.25% per annum. The regulator's commentaries were restrained. The BoE indicated that the monetary policy would remain restrictive for as long as necessary to control inflation fully.

The Bank of England's inflation target remains at 2%, which the regulator believes can be achieved by the end of Q2 2024. However, no indication was given as to what the BoE intends to do after that.

It appears that the Bank of England is diverging from the general strategy of other global banks regarding interest rates, which is why the pound crashed.

The GBP exchange rate is under additional pressure from the US dollar, which has strengthened noticeably.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBP has suspended its decline. Overview for 25.03.2024

The UK pound sterling suspended its falling against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2607.

Last week, GBP suffered a lot. It dropped 1% against USD on Thursday and 0.5% more on Friday after the Bank of England left the interest rate without a change. Everything turned out just as expected but the tone of the BoE’s comments remained rather soft. Two policymakers from the monetary committee denounced their previous calls for raising the lending cost.

However, the experience of the Swiss National Bank that suddenly raised the interest rate last week opens similar doors for other regulators.

The UK pound is not expecting much important statistics. Still there are things to take a look at: on Thursday, the UK GBP reports for Q4 2023 will be presented. According to preliminary estimations, the economy might have dropped by 0.2% y/y after rising by 0.3% previously.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUD is inclined to growth. Overview for 26.03.2024

The Australian dollar has moved into positive territory against the US dollar. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6540.

Consumer sentiment in the Australian economy in March retreated from its 20-month peak as concerns about the economic prospects and household finances have come to the fore. According to Westpac observations, the consumer sentiment index lost 1.8% in March after rising by 6.2% in February. The index reached 84.4 points, indicating that pessimists still outnumber optimistic consumers.

The February data provided hope that consumer discouragement that prevailed for the last two years was finally beginning to dissipate. The March report does not confirm this. At best, the momentum will be slow and leisurely.

Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% per annum. It softened its commentary on the likelihood of future interest rate hikes and described the economic outlook as well-balanced.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JPY is the worst-performing currency of the quarter. Overview for 27.03.2024

The Japanese yen resumed weakening against the US dollar. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 151.75.

The latest economic data from the US has cast doubt on whether the Federal Reserve will decide to lower interest rates soon, which pushed the JPY to a 30-year low. The current levels are the ones at which Japan conducted currency interventions in 2022.

The yen is now at its lowest level since the mid-1990s.

This morning, in their commentaries, the Bank of Japan's monetary policymakers and the Ministry of Finance used very similar language to that in 2020, which preceded interventions. While this may not necessarily occur this time, the probability cannot be completely ruled out.

The yen is becoming the worst-performing currency this quarter among those in demand, even after the Bank of Japan abolished the negative interest rate regime. The reason is the huge difference in the cost of borrowing.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR continues to lose weight. Overview for 28.03.2024

The primary currency pair is heading downwards on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0823.

Overall, the market sentiment easily fits into consolidation as the decline does not appear agitated. Investors are conserving energy before new economic statistics from the US are released, particularly before tomorrow's Core PCE report. This is the Federal Reserve's favourite inflation indicator.

The general expectation is that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points.

Simultaneously, the likelihood of an interest rate decrease by the European Central Bank in June is estimated at 81%, compared to a 64% probability for the Fed.

The main market movements are expected today because tomorrow is a public holiday in most Catholic countries for Good Friday.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR has dropped even lower. Overview for 29.03.2024

The primary currency pair continued to decline on Friday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0775.

Market activity will be limited today as Catholic countries observe the Good Friday public holiday. However, this is a stock market date, not a federal one, so statistics will still be published, although investors will not utilise them until Monday.

Today's statistics focus on February's US Core PCE report, the leading price index of personal consumption expenditures. The indicator is expected to have risen by 0.3% that month, slightly lower than in January. On a year-to-year basis, Core PCE could remain at the 2.8% level.

Price pressures remain elevated, allowing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high. This, among other things, supports the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR dropped to the mid-February lows. Overview for 02.04.2024

The primary currency pair remains under significant pressure on Tuesday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0730.

US statistics released yesterday triggered a substantial strengthening of the USD. The data included the March ISM Manufacturing PMI. The report showed an increase to 50.3 points from 47.8 points the previous month. Firstly, the indicator surpassed the 50-point threshold that distinguishes between decline and growth. Secondly, it halted a 16-month downtrend.

The components of the new release appeared varied. Manufacturing parameters recovered, and the number of new orders increased. However, employment in the sector remains low, and commodity price pressure persists.

According to CME FedWatch, the market has slightly adjusted its expectations regarding the US Fed’s interest rate cut in June.

Today, the market focus is on the March manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and the February manufacturing order report in the US.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBP has found support. Overview for 03.04.2024

The UK pound sterling, paired with the US dollar, has entered positive territory. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2579.

Fresh statistics indicate that sentiment within the UK business sector is notably optimistic. The Manufacturing PMI for March rose to 50.3 points from the previous 47.5 points. The fact that the indicator has crossed the psychologically significant threshold of 50 points is undeniably positive.

Mortgage lending volume in February saw an increase to 1.51 million, up from 1.07 million the previous month. Net lending to individuals also expanded noticeably to 2.80 million from 0.69 million earlier.

The primary catalyst lies in the recovery of domestic demand.

British authorities expect that households will be inclined to increase spending this year.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EUR recovered its losses. Overview for 04.04.2024

The primary currency pair is moving upwards on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0844.

The euro's recovery against the US dollar is due to yesterday's comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding future interest rates. In fact, he merely confirmed that the Fed would rely on recent statistics when making interest rate decisions. The market responds positively to this, suggesting stability, and the Fed is gradually preparing for an interest rate cut in June.

Considering this, the US employment market statistics for March, which are due for release on Friday, are critical.

The consensus forecast suggests that the unemployment rate remained at 3.9%, while average wages surged by 4.1% y/y compared to 4.3% previously. The nonfarm payrolls report might show a 205 thousand increase after skyrocketing by 273 thousand in February.

The probability of an interest rate rise in June is currently estimated at 60%.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team