USDJPY hits new lows: the yen returns to last year’s levels
The yen continues to strengthen, with the USDJPY pair falling to a seven-month low. The USDJPY rate currently stands at 153.47.
USDJPY forecast: key takeaways
Japan’s GDP data did not affect the USDJPY rate
The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has risen to around 62%
The market is awaiting the release of US inflation data on Friday
Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis for 9 September 2026 shows that Japan’s GDP data strengthens the fundamental case for further yen appreciation and puts pressure on the USDJPY pair. According to the released data, Japan’s economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, compared to a forecast of 0.3%, although the pace of growth slowed slightly from the previous 0.5%.
This factor is negative for the USDJPY rate. Rising rates in Japan are gradually narrowing the significant yield gap between US and Japanese assets, which in previous years was one of the main drivers of the yen’s weakness.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
JP 225 falls for the third consecutive session amid rising oil prices and bond yields
The JP 225 index is declining for the third consecutive trading session, driven by rising oil prices, higher US bond yields, and a stronger yen. The price currently stands at 64,683.
JP 225 forecast: key takeaways
Rising oil prices are fuelling inflation risks and expectations of an imminent interest rate hike
Additional pressure on Japanese stocks comes from higher US Treasury yields and the yen strengthening to a nearly seven-month high
JP 225 forecast for 10 September 2026: 63,650
Fundamental analysis
The Nikkei 225 index is down by around 1% on Thursday, trading below 64,600 and marking its third consecutive session of declines. Rising oil prices are adding to pressure on the Japanese market, increasing inflation risks and supporting expectations of near-term monetary policy tightening.
Another negative factor is the weak performance of US stock indices. US Treasury yields rose after the US Treasury announced plans to buy back up to 6 billion USD of long-term debt.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US Tech rebounds from the lower boundary of the consolidation range
The US Tech is attempting to end a three-day losing streak, with the price currently at 29,279.
US Tech forecast: key takeaways
Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are being reassessed, increasing risks for the technology sector
High oil prices are intensifying inflation risks, which could limit the Federal Reserve’s room to ease monetary policy
Fundamental analysis
The US Tech index is attempting to recover after declining for three consecutive trading sessions. The price has almost reached the key support level at 29,000 and is attempting to recoup yesterday’s losses. Pressure on the technology sector increased after US government bond yields rose and stronger-than-expected wholesale price data was released.
The primary driver of the previous session’s sell-off was an acceleration in the annual growth rate of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) to 5.4% in August.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
BTCUSD is under pressure amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the price currently hovering at 77,842.
BTCUSD forecast: key takeaways
The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike has risen to 86%
Investors are reducing positions in risk assets amid changing expectations for US monetary policy
BTCUSD forecast for 14 September 2026: 73,825
Fundamental analysis
The BTCUSD price is recovering after testing the key support level at 76,505 USD, although selling pressure persists. The main negative factor for the cryptocurrency market remains the shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy following the release of fresh US inflation data.
Additional pressure on Bitcoin comes from outflows from US spot ETFs. From 8 to 11 September, the funds recorded combined net outflows of around 462.6 million USD, marking a notable reversal following strong inflows earlier in the month.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The US 500 index has stabilised following the US market decline earlier in the week, but pressure from the technology sector, high oil prices, and rising yields persists.
US 500 forecast: key takeaways
The semiconductor sector saw increased selling following new warnings about the risks of rapid artificial intelligence development
The likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday stands at 92%, while high oil prices and rising yields are adding further pressure on stocks
US 500 forecast for 15 September 2026: 7,615 and 7,575
Fundamental analysis
US stock index futures stabilised on Tuesday after the major indices declined at the start of the week. On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.56%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.48%, and the Dow Jones declined by 0.29%. The technology sector came under the greatest pressure.
Investor sentiment deteriorated after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slowdown in the pace of artificial intelligence development due to risks associated with the continued expansion of model capabilities.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US 30 declines as probability of a rate hike exceeds 90%
The US 30 outlook for today is negative, as US government bond yields have exceeded the psychological 5% level. The US 30 price currently stands at 52,177.0.
US 30 forecast: key takeaways
US CPI for August came in at 3.4% year-on-year
Today, the market will await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision
US 30 forecast for 16 September 2026: 51,530.0
Fundamental analysis
The market estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, from the current 3.50–3.75% range to 3.75–4.00%, at around 92.4%. The likelihood of the rate remaining unchanged is only 7.6%.
For the US 30 index, the situation remains moderately negative. A higher interest rate increases borrowing costs for companies, makes government bonds more attractive, and at the same time reduces the relative appeal of stock.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
