Fundamental Analysis by FxPro

[Jatuh Cinta]

The single currency returned under 1.0700 after three days of decline. Late last month, EURUSD failed to consolidate above the 50-day moving average, confirming the prevalence of the downtrend.

The bounce in the pair in the second half of last month should be seen as a technical correction after accumulated oversold conditions after 12 months of a downtrend. That bounce lost its strength on the approach of the 50-day moving average and near the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement line. Such shallow corrections are characteristic of strong trending markets, setting up for a further leg down.

The EURUSD is in a reduced volatility mode waiting for another ECB decision tomorrow. Earlier, in AUD and NZD examples, we saw that raising the rate by 50 points does not guarantee a surge in the currency, even if the decision was more hawkish than the markets expected.

The lull in the euro could be a case of waiting and looking for a suitable excuse to resume a selloff in EURUSD, and the ECB meeting followed by a press conference looks like a significant one.

The market is prepared that the ECB will not change policy now but will signal a rate hike at the end of July and complete its QE purchases by the end of this month. On the fundamental analysis side, this stance is much softer than competitors, continuing to put pressure on the euro.

Helping the euro not to repeat the fate of the yen tomorrow might be the unexpected resolve of the ECB and a higher speed of monetary policy normalisation compared to the US. The euro zone’s monetary authorities are bound by the region’s weak macroeconomic performance and high debt burdens in several countries. Europe finds itself somewhere in the middle between the US and Japan regarding the balance of economic growth and the ability to digest rate hikes. The single currency could find itself in its dynamics against the dollar and yen somewhere between these poles.

 

[Jatuh Cinta]

The British Pound is retreating for a second day, returning below the 1.25 level, failing to build on the positive momentum at the start of the week.

The pressure appears to be driven by rising government bond yields in global markets, starting with but not limited to the US.

The intraday dynamics of GBPUSD show methodical intraday selling. This is another sign of the rebound’s local exhaustion, and we might expect a new round of declines later.
A pullback of the FTSE100 from the local highs above 7600 is also working against the Pound. The British currency often has a positive correlation to the demand for risks, and its reduction contributes to selling the Pound in forex.

The final point of a new move down could be the 1.1500 area - near the March 2020 low. But before directing the pair to these historical levels, the bears have yet to prove their strength.

The first test of the sellers’ intentions may be in this week’s low, at 1.2430. Should it fail below May’s low at 1.2150, there may be a more meaningful signal. The GBPUSD could make its first move today in case of a sell-off in the equity markets. A move to test 1.2150 could take a couple of weeks.

 

[Jatuh Cinta]

The European Central Bank has kept its key rate unchanged and officially announced that it will stop buying as part of its asset purchase programme from July 1. In an accompanying commentary, the ECB explicitly indicated that it intends to raise the rate by 25 points at its next meeting, depriving the markets of intrigue for the coming weeks.

However, the ECB also indicated that it intends to tighten policy in September and could raise the rate by 50 points.

Quite expectedly, the ECB's stance looks much softer – dovish – compared with that of the central banks in the USA, UK, Canada, Australia and several others that are many months ahead of the European Central Bank in their policy reversal. Moreover, the ECB has lowered its GDP forecasts for this year and the next, from 3.7% to 2.8% in 2022 and from 2.8% to 2.1% in 2023.

With such a clear difference in policy and worsening forecasts, it was unexpected to see a positive reaction from the single currency. In our view, this assessment by the market could reflect short-term speculative buying on the policy reversal, similar to how the Pound and Dollar strengthened before respective rate uplifts. Nevertheless, with a comparable rate of inflation, the ECB has a lag in policy normalisation, and this gap promises only to widen in the coming months. This is terrible news for the single currency, so we should not be surprised if we continue to see the euro selling off on intraday growth attempts.

 

[Jatuh Cinta]

Yesterday’s US inflation data spurred market expectations that the Fed will raise rates by 100 points at the end of July, although about a month ago, Powell called a 75-point increase abnormal.

The revision in expectations for monetary policy of the US central bank again highlighted the contrast with Japanese monetary policy and triggered a new momentum of yen weakness.

The USDJPY is already up to 139.20 at the time of writing, the highest since September 1998. But even then, almost 24 years ago, it was a turbulence zone, where the pair spent less than three months, making a quick reversal in the backdrop of a flaring financial crisis in Russia. Even earlier, in 1990, the USDJPY spent about half a year above 140, but then the dip below was a recovery of the long-term downward trend.

Either way, the 140 area in USDJPY looks like a potential area of turbulence where more volatility is expected. In previous weeks we have heard more verbal interventions from the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance, as well as their joint statement (a rare event).

The new lows in the yen this week and its more than 1.4% fall since the start of the day on Thursday make it necessary to keep events around the Japanese currency on the periphery of attention so as not to miss a possible spike in volatility in one direction or the other.

The yen’s weakening is a legitimate market trend linked to interest rate differential dynamics. But the speculation that the BoJ will not change policy by moving to higher interest rates and that the Ministry of Finance will not be burning through foreign currency for interventions is now embedded in the quotations.

 

[Jatuh Cinta]

The annual inflation rate in New Zealand accelerated to 7.3%, a new high since 1990 and above average forecasts for 7.1%. The quarterly price growth of 1.7% also remains elevated, showing no deceleration in the last quarter. Short-term inflation figures above expectations have triggered a “classic” strengthening of NZD buying. However, we believe that the market played the kiwi higher, relying on the heightened risk appetite that prevailed in the morning rather than on fundamentals.

The RBNZ still missed its chance to catch up with the pace of Fed policy tightening, as at the July 13 meeting, they raised their rate by 50 points, which is lower than the 75 points by which the Fed raised their rate.

It is widely priced in by markets that both central banks will repeat their steps next time. Additionally, the next Fed meeting is in 9 days versus 30 days for the RBNZ, which widens the yields differential even more.

The kiwi is now locally overbought in the dollar, which forms a pullback in risky assets, and traders use fundamental news to take profits from the previous strong move.

As part of the rebound gaining momentum, it is worth paying attention to the dynamics of the pair NZDUSD near 0.7200, the level of the previous local lows. An active rise in the pair above these levels would indicate that we are seeing a broader recovery rather than a local rebound. But that will require a global dollar retreat and a sustained reversal of the markets to the upside. For now, we see a bear market with regular bounces

 

[Skyliu55]

Pound British cuba kembali ke tahap di atas 1.2000. Tekanan ke atas pound meningkat pada petang Isnin, bersama-sama dengan pengurangan permintaan untuk aset berisiko selepas pasaran AS. Hari ini pound perlu melawan angin baru dalam bentuk statistik makroekonomi tempatan di pasaran buruh UK.



Bilangan orang yang menerima faedah pengangguran turun sebanyak 20k pada bulan Jun, separuh daripada jumlah yang dijangkakan dan 34.7k sebulan lebih awal. Jumlah peluang pekerjaan untuk tiga bulan hingga Jun ialah 1,294k berbanding 1,297k untuk Mac-Mei dan 1,295k untuk Februari-April. Pasaran buruh yang terlalu panas telah mula sejuk.



Angka gaji juga menunjukkan ini. Mengambil kira bonus, pendapatan meningkat 6.2% dalam tiga bulan hingga Jun berbanding tempoh yang sama tahun sebelumnya. Data inflasi rasmi menunjukkan peningkatan 9.1% YoY pada bulan Mei, manakala data Jun, yang dikeluarkan pada hari Rabu, dijangka meningkat kepada 9.3%, menandakan pecutan kejatuhan dalam pendapatan sebenar pekerja. Di samping itu, statistik ini keluar lebih lemah daripada yang dijangkakan, yang mungkin berfungsi untuk melemahkan pound berbanding pesaingnya.

Walaupun data pasaran buruh tidak memberangsangkan, GBPUSD memperoleh keuntungan untuk sesi dagangan ketiga, yang sepatutnya dikaitkan dengan keinginan pasaran untuk mengambil keuntungan daripada rali sebelumnya dalam dolar.



Mata wang AS meningkat terlalu jauh dan terlalu cepat, dan kini tertakluk kepada tekanan teknikal jangka pendek. Sehingga mesyuarat Fed pada 27 Julai, kita mungkin melihat lantunan pembetulan yang mampu meratakan kedudukan pasaran dan menyediakan potensi untuk langkah dua hala pada hasil mesyuarat kritikal FOMC.



Di peringkat tempatan, walaupun data lemah hari ini dan bacaan inflasi yang berpotensi membimbangkan pada hari Rabu dan jualan runcit pada hari Jumaat, GBPUSD mungkin tidak mempunyai halangan yang ketara untuk lantunan semula sehingga 1.2200 - kawasan sokongan pada bulan Mei dan tahap anjakan semula Fibonacci 76.4% daripada aliran menurun Februari-Julai . Ini akan melegakan beberapa kedudukan terlebih jual pasangan itu tetapi tidak cukup untuk memecahkan aliran menurun jangka sederhana pasangan itu kerana ekonomi UK perlahan lebih cepat daripada AS, mengalami harga komoditi dan tenaga yang diimport yang tinggi.

 

[kuilforex]

ini sangat menarik sekali setelah 20 tahun euro jatuh dibawah usd, apakah yang akan terjadi kedepan ?

 

[Skyliu55]

Satu set statistik baru dari UK menunjukkan bahawa inflasi masih tidak perlahan. Kadar pertumbuhan harga pengguna meningkat kepada 9.4% y/y pada bulan Jun selepas mereka menambah 0.8% untuk bulan tersebut, empat kali ganda purata kenaikan bulanan jangka panjang sebanyak 0.2%.



Tetapi, lebih membimbangkan, petunjuk inflasi utama tidak berhenti mengejutkan. Indeks Harga Belian Pengeluar menambah 1.8% pada bulan Jun berbanding jangkaan 1.2%, kepada 24% y/y. Indeks Harga Keluaran Pengeluar meningkat sebanyak 1.4% (jangkaan 1.0%), kepada 16.5% YoY.

Penerbitan berasingan mencatatkan pecutan dalam pertumbuhan harga rumah daripada 11.9% YoY kepada 12.8% pada bulan Mei. Terdahulu, pegawai Bank of England bercakap tentang keperluan untuk mempercepatkan pengetatan dasar untuk melawan inflasi. Laporan baharu menunjukkan bahawa Jawatankuasa Dasar Monetari akan menilai keperluan untuk menaikkan kadar sebanyak 50bp atau lebih dalam dua minggu akan datang, beralih daripada langkah 25bp yang diukur.



Walaupun mempercepatkan normalisasi dasar monetari berpotensi untuk menyokong paun, ini adalah berita kenaikan harga untuk pasaran saham dan permintaan risiko keseluruhan. Pound adalah sensitif kepada turun naik dalam selera risiko, jadi jangan harap ia akan membuat pulangan yang berterusan kepada pertumbuhan berbanding dolar tanpa pasaran menaik saham terlebih dahulu.