Latest forex analysis

[ForexAnalysis]

Latest Forex Analysis - 12/03/08

Daily Forex Analysis


Overnight Asia/Europe

• USD initially firmer in Asia, breaks lower in Europe
• Traders note stop-driven trade
• Demand for EURO from Middle-East accounts noted

Today’s Economic Reports

• None of note in the US

Looking Ahead

• All eyes on US CPI Friday forecast +0.3%, core +0.2%
• Speculation growing for 75 BP rate cut next week by FOMC

Summary
The USD is lower to start New York after a firm start in Asia evaporated into European trade. Despite firmer equities overnight and follow-through from Tuesday’s strong rally the Green back failed to hold onto gains and the majors reversed back into their highs on mostly stop driven trade. Overnight desks report that demand for EURO was seen by Middle-Eastern accounts and rumors of some semi-official buying off the lows around the 1.5350 area helped push the rate into stops at the 1.5390 area. Once those stops were triggered the rate saw waves of stops layered between 1.5400, 1.5430, and 1.5450 for a high print at 1.5479 before offers capped the move again under the 1.5500 psychological barrier. Stops being triggered close-in within range is often a sign of weak hands liquidating suggesting there is a lot of early interest in the short side from the highs; I think the two-way action and covering the same ground twice is a good sign of a top trying to form. Aggressive traders can ADD to short EURO positions from the 1.5450 area. In my view, the EURO continues to be severely overbought and a top is inevitable sooner or later. If this is the top forming for the correction then there should be more clues by the end of the week and with US CPI on Friday. Forex Trading Market tops don’t need much of an excuse to break so be nimble if you are on the long side of EURO. Cable followed EURO higher into strong resistance at the 2.0200/20 area and found it tough going at the triple-top; high prints at 2.0218 were quickly sold and the rate is on the 2.0160/60 area to open New York. USD/JPY held firm most of the overnight session first holding on to the 103.20/30 area through Asia and resisting the sell-off seen in the other pairs until late in the European session; lows eventually found at 102.43 after stops under the 102.80 area were triggered. Traders note that across the board the interest in the majors appears thinner than previous highs suggesting that large names may be staying away from the long side or trying to buy dips; in either case that argues for a more limited upside near-term. Look for the USD to continue two-way ahead of CPI on Friday as the news is light until then. Expect a bout of profit taking by the shorts soon.



EURO/USD Daily

R3: ?
R2: 1.5490/1.5500
R1: 1.5470/80
Current Price: 1.5466
S1: 1.5420/30
S2: 1.5400
S3: 1.5380

Rate technically still an inside range day, highs at 1.5479 drawing good selling and overhead resistance is getting thicker with the 1.5500 figure drawing a lot of protective option defense. In range stops to the upside seen as the main driver overnight suggesting lots of early sell interest. Stops under the market likely to be close in also due to late buyers or short-term buyers. Look for a sharp break on “Fed-Speak” from Bernanke this week or Trichet overseas; the market is looking for direction in my view.



GBP/USD Daily

R3: 2.0250
R2: 2.0210/20
R1: 2.0180/90
Current Price: 2.0160
S1: 2.0120
S2: 2.0100
S3: 2.0080

Rate tries for highs one more time and is turned back at the triple-top at the 2.0220 area making the resistance a quadruple-top; very strong resistance in my view. OK to ADD to shorts from the 2.0180 area looking for a break back to the 100 bar MA again. Close under the 2.0070/80 area likely to draw a long-liquidation break. Stops likely close-in and in-range again on the way down from late longs; likely building in the 2.0130/40 area as that was good resistance on the way higher.

Analysis by: www.Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[avirdurdja]

amende nie bro

 

[daoss]

tulongla kasi ajar sket..huhuhu

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Latest Forex Analysis - 13/03/08

Daily Forex Analysis


Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD gives back Tuesday’s gains
• Volumes lighter but sentiment relentless
• EURO scores another new high

Overnight Preview

• Traders expect two-way action
• Likely to have downward bias continue

Looking Ahead

• 7:30 AM CDT Friday CPI forecast +0.3%, core 0.2%

Summary
The USD took it on the chin again today giving back all of yesterday’s hard-won gains and breaking to new lows against the EURO late in the session. Traders note that although the price action was two-way and seemed to be technical in nature, the volumes were lighter and stops did most of the work. Most of the chatter was concerned with who was on what side of the stops desks report and there seemed no shortage of people selling into the highs across the board; but it was not enough to overwhelm the residual bids. All the major pairs started on the defense in Asia but where quickly reversed by Middle-Eastern demand for EURO and Cable traders say. Most of the action was fairly subdued until the start of European trade when light stops were elected in EURO and GBP. Cable rallied along with EURO as stops were elected in layers; noticeably absent was the usual suspects on the Yen crosses as a technical correction was expected after the Yen’s reversal yesterday. Cable continued to climb into the 2.0200 handle by the start of New York following EURO into a high print at 1.5493 in early New York. After a brief selloff the rates got down to wrecking balance sheets as first a sharp rally followed by a sharp break followed by a sharp rally happened up to the London fix; then it was high after high washing out any selling interest into the end of New York. Forex Trading. High prints in EURO at 1.5560 and 2.0280 in GBP. USD/JPY made a show under the 102.00 handle for a low print at 101.67 but not before bids tried to lift the pair on each break from 102.50 all the way down to 101.80; traders note that both bulls and bears are thoroughly confused at this point and liquidation was seen from both sides. In my view, the lack of follow-through selling in the majors after such a nice head-start on Tuesday underscores the euphoric nature of trade at this point. In my view, traders need to be flat and wait for more clues before switching sides or again looking for the highs. No matter how you slice it, when price action begins to create more questions than it answers it is best to be sidelined until you get some answers. Until you get better clues to price direction instead of this whipsaw, stay flat and enjoy the madness.

EURO/USD Daily

R3: ?
R2: ?
R1: ?
Current Price: 1.5549
S1: 1.5520
S2: 1.5480
S3: 1.5450

Rate continues to give the bears no quarter and powers to three separate attempts at highs attracting sellers all the way. Rhetoric from ECB governors today did nothing to help the bullish momentum. Lots of reasons to stand aside and in my view it might be a good move to flatten out before switching to the long side or looking for a top. This market will not act rationally at this point and it is WAY overdue for a correction. Look for more upside to the “Oh my god!” level.

USD/JPY Daily

R3: 102.70/80
R2: 102.30/40
R1: 102.00
Current Price: 101.76
S1: 101.40/50
S2: 101.20
S3: ?

Pair retraces buying pressure from yesterday completely negating upside potential, two-bar continuation pattern likely means further declines; no chance of a rally without a change in sentiment or a “surprise” in my view. Bulls completely demoralized I think and they will likely not be looking to buy without a strong reversal pattern. Stops under the ten-year lows likely to be moved up to the 101.50 area as a break looks inevitable. No bottom in sight and a test of the 100.00 level looks next.

Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[Mohammed]

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[daoss]

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[ForexAnalysis]

Latest Forex Analysis - 18/03/08

Forex Daily Analysis


Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD takes another plunge on Fed action and liquidity fears
• Equities have violent day, end positive
• Lots of jawboning for a better USD

Overnight Preview

• Expect volatility and more rhetoric
• Traders expect the majors to pullback soon to correct

Looking Ahead

• Fed has FOMC meeting starting tomorrow, traders expect 75 BP cut
• 7:30 AM CDT Housing Starts and PPI forecast 995K and +0.3%, core +0.2%

Summary
The USD got slammed again overnight trading to some of the worst levels in history against some pairs. The US Fed added liquidity and so did the BOE and traders fear the worst is yet to come in the liquidity “crisis” now panicking Wall Street. JP Morgan agreed to buy Bear Stearns today for $2.00 a share which amounts t around five cents on the dollar leaving investors furious; it’s only a matter of time before the lawsuits, Federal Probes and fines start happening. Traders note that the Greenback was sold heavily on high volumes during the overnight sessions but has stabilized during the New York sessions leaving some to suggest that the majors are going to take a breather for a short time; other desks report that their order books are wiped clean expect for stops on winning positions and the major pairs are less than tradable at this point. Apparently the market needs a correction of some kind or a word from someone who has the credibility to support the “crisis” and stabilize the USD. The only exception to the USD crash was the GBP; cable broke sharply along with the USD today. Making an early high at the 2.0231 number the rate started to sink on cross-rate liquidation breaking over 700 points against the yen and trading to a 1.9990 low for USD; traders note that the rate has closed below the 100 bar MA again making for a technical reversal. Aggressive traders can ADD to open shorts for additional weakness into the next level of support around the 1.9750 area. EURO rallied to an overnight high at 1.5905 before reversing but holding the overnight opening range at 1.5675 area. Forex Traders note that the rate is technically ready to advance again to the 1.5950 area but the large wick and head scratching suggest that the rally was used by longs to get out. USD/JPY and Swissy too both traded to significant lows; but both pairs have signs of reversals beginning. Low prints in USD/JPY at 95.76 were bought hard and the rate rallied to 97.70 area into the close; Swissy same story rallying off .9640 lifetime low back to the .9870 area into the close. Potential reversal in the works I think. Look for a Fed cut to be factored in.

EUR/USD Daily

R3: 1.5900/10
R2: 1.5850
R1: 1.5780
Current Price: 1.5745
S1: 1.9670/80
S2: 1.9620
S3: 1.9550

Rate takes the path of least resistance on the news but as the day wore on no follow-through was seen. Long selling wick on the day is the largest wick on daily action in over a year suggesting that volatility is being sold near-term. Late longs likely have stops under the daily low and bids may have been pulled after the highs so far away were hit; traders note that longs likely selling out into the highs. Expect volatility but a top is certainly forming near-term.

GBP/USD Daily

R3: 2.0200
R2: 2.0150
R1: 2.0080
Current Price: 2.0011
S1: 1.9990/2.0000
S2: 1.9940/50
S3: 1.9900

Rate falls back from resistance at the 50% fib defense area, close under the 100 bar MA argues for a near-term continuation of down trend. Look for the rate to open and stay weaker overnight and suffer intraday volatility around FOMC announcement and overseas data. Wait for the close before adjusting positions as I think the volatility will all be small day-traders; not big money accounts. Aggressive traders can add to open shorts and roll protective stops to B/E.


Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Latest Forex Analysis - 19/03/08

Latest Forex Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• Big news is Fed rate cut, 75 BP
• Markets are “disappointed”
• USD begins rally

Overnight Preview

• Look for more USD short-covering and book squaring
• Volumes likely to surge if close-in stops hit in Asia

Looking Ahead

• No real news until Friday’s Philly Fed forecast -18.0

Summary
The USD is gaining ground making highs on the day against several pairs as the markets react to a “disappointing” 75 BP rate cut by the FOMC. Market gurus were touting a 100 BP rate cut due to the liquidity “crisis” but in my view, that was a reactionary point of view after the USD’s decline on Monday and the panicky nature of the market. Cooler heads are prevailing as a bout of short-covering is lifting the USD into the best levels of the day; Cable is dropping to new US lows as the selling takes hold. GBP highs just prior to the rate announcement at 2.0276 making for a huge range in the pair but heading into the close the rate is forex trading back under the 2.0150 area leaving a large selling wick on the day’s action and generating a “strong sell” signal. Traders note that the buying ahead of the news was e-platform accounts and CTA type accounts who are traditionally late to the party; stops close in under the 2.0200 handle helped break the rate lower. EURO has completely reversed from earlier highs above the 1.5800 handle; traders note that official and semi-official selling above the 1.5800 handle helped keep the rate in check until the news. Making lows on the week under the 1.5700 handle for a low print at 1.5666; EURO has found stops close in as well but a slight bid tone remains most likely from stubborn longs traders say. Most technical indicators in all the majors are over-bought and EURO making lows on the week after the news is an obvious clue that a correction is beginning in my view. USD/JPY is roaring back making a two-bar reversal and high prints back over the 99.00 handle at 99.51 as stops are triggered. The rate looks set to regain the 100.00 handle later today and in Asia you can expect more follow-on buying as the Japanese have been large buyers of USD the past two week on the break lower. In my view, the Fed easing was “baked in the cake” and the USD rally after the news confirms that the oversold USD is starting a relief rally. Look for the USD to continue firming up overnight and to end the week stronger across the board. Aggressive traders can buy USD across the board on a minor dip the next 24 hours.

EUR/USD Daily

R3: 1.5820
R2: 1.5780
R1: 1.5720/30
Current Price: 1.5685
S1: 1.5650/60
S2: 1.5600/10
S3: 1.5580

Rate completes an inverted hammer formation and marks new weekly lows from an inside range day; classic images of a failed high in my view. Close in stops under the Monday low triggered but bids mixed in for an initial bounce. Aggressive selling likely overnight as late longs are forced to cover back and early shorts press their advantage. More downside is likely and aggressive traders can sell the rate on any bounce. Look for continued weakness ahead of Philly Fed Friday.

USD/JPY Daily

R3: 100.80
R2: 100.30/40
R1: 100.00
Current Price: 99.36
S1: 98.80
S2: 98.20/30
S3: 97.80

Rate completes a two-bar reversal adding an exponential reversal signal; good signs of an extended correction in the works. Rally on stop driven trade likely to take a few days as late shorts will need time to take their beatings. Stops likely over the 100.50 area in large size as that was where the sentiment turned “really negative” last week. Rhetoric likely to drive additional buying as early longs are encouraged by BOJ and other Asian officials “welcoming” the fed move.


Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Latest Forex Analysis - 24/03/08

Forex Daily Analysis


Overnight Asia/Europe

• USD two-sided
• Volumes light
• Most of Asia closed, Europe closed for Easter Break

Today’s Economic Reports

• 9:00 AM CDT Existing Home Sales forecast 4.86M
• 9:00 AM CDT Consumer Confidence forecast 75.0

Looking Ahead

• Durable goods on Wednesday
• Educational Broadcast on Wednesday

Summary
The USD resumed trading after the three-day Easter holiday on the offense in a very light session overnight; most of Asia was closed and Europeans are on their Easter break. Most large banks had light staff on the desks and the Greenback is trading mostly in a technical consolidation traders say. News overnight was sparse with today’s US data likely to cause little price action most agree. Overnight ranges were mostly within existing ranges from last week and the tone of the majors appears to remain more consolidative and possibly defensive. The USD was two-sided overnight as light volumes kept everybody on the sidelines most desks were reporting. GBP had a narrow 94 pip range and opens New York near the highs; high prints at 1.9851 and lows at 1.9757. Although the GBP continues to trade with a weak tone the 50 bar MA is offering some support while the 21 day MA is offering resistance suggesting that the rate is trapped in a consolidation sideways. In my view, any rally is a sell and aggressive forex traders can add to open shorts on a pop above the 1.9900 handle. EURO is two-way also with a more reasonable range of 117 pips but is unable to find buyers in size despite the rally into the 1.5450 area; high prints at 1.5457. Lows in the rate were at 1.4340 and traders report light stops on the break into new lows below last week’s lows but fib defense at 1.5330/40 area appears to be offering a bit of support near-term. Traders note that volumes in the EURO are very light as Europeans take a break also. In my view, the EURO has put in a top for an expected correction and I would look to sell strength into the 1.5550 area; anything over the 1.5480 area is a solid sell I think. Overnight USD/JPY regained the 100.00 handle again looking like a more aggressive rally could result. Lows at 99.38 followed by highs at 100.17 making for a tight range but that is due to thin conditions no doubt. Lack of news from Asia likely to keep the USD two-way but news from the US may help the rate into stops likely to be around the 100.50 area or slightly higher. For the day; look for the USD to continue sideways.

EUR/USD Daily

R3: 1.5500
R2: 1.5480
R1: 1.5450/60
Current Price: 1.5434
S1: 1.5400
S2: 1.5380
S3: 1.5330/40

Rate finds some support at 38.2% fib defense but light volumes and thin conditions may exaggerate the bounce; so far holding a “doji” pattern after attempt to rally failed early. Likely that stops are now rolled up under the 1.5330 area for a weekly low; should the low be broken a deeper correction to the 1.5280 area likely. I think the rate continues to soften as the worst in the USD is over for now and look for the 1.5000 handle to fail as the correction deepens in the next few weeks.

USD/JPY Daily

R3: 100.80
R2: 100.50
R1: 100.10/20
Current Price: 99.75
S1: 99.20/30
S2: 99.00
S3: 98.80

Rate continues to build on early bid interest on the potential rejection of the exhaustion break. Exponential reversal still valid and building credibility for a sustained rally to the 105.50 area of the 50 bar MA; look for stops to be massive layered in the 101.50/60 area through the 102.20 area; that was where the panic selling started from. Sellers likely to get scarce as the rising wedge pattern gains security. In my view, the rate is set to rally and dips are a great buy.

Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 25/3/08

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• Quiet volumes and subdued price action

• US data encouraging but not market moving

• Traders note thin conditions likely to continue


Overnight Preview

• Look for consolidation and continued two-way trade

• No market-moving news due from overseas


Looking Ahead

• 9:00 AM CDT Tuesday Consumer Confidence forecast 75.0

Summary
The USD is ending New York a bit mixed in Two-way trade as holiday-thinned markets and lack of volume keeps the majors trading sideways. Overnight action was a bit on the buy-side early for USD as there was a slight bout of follow-through buying in Asia but with most of the Asian markets closed the action was light. Into European trade the USD continued to trade two-way and remained in tight ranges until the release of US data. Existing Home Sales were better than expected coming out at 5.03M units sold beating the forecast at 4.86M; inspiring a brief rally in the Greenback. USD/JPY rallied for new Monday highs finding stops over the 100.50 area as expected for a high print at 100.75 before going two-way; most of the day the USD continued to grind higher setting a few highs for a final high print just ahead of the New York close at 100.91. Traders note the rate looks ready to continue advancing in technical action the next few sessions or until resistance at the 102.50/60 area is tested. The Japanese are behind schedule picking a new BOJ chief and that may be adding to the corrective nature of the USD/JPY of late. Cable dropped into the 50 bar MA support area for the second time overnight for a low print at 1.9757 which went unchallenged all day. Briefly touching highs at 1.9879 the rate appears stuck in a sideways consolidation. Aggressive forex traders can look to add to open shorts above the 1.9900 handle looking for further strength to fail on a test of the S/R area of 1.9950. EURO fell into stops overnight under the 1.5380 area for a low print at 1.5340 making a solid retracement from the highs. A “dead cat bounce” is likely from the 1.5340 area but expect a rally to fail at the 1.5480 area ahead of 1.5550; a short will gain credibility on a test and failure of the 1.5500/50 area in my view. For the most part today the USD remained two-way and consolidative. Traders expect more of the same overnight and with the release of Consumer Confidence tomorrow the Greenback may get another push in the upward direction; but don’t count on it. I think the majors will continue to consolidate and cover a lot of the same ground twice. Expect quiet trade overnight.


USD/JPY Daily

R3: 101.80

R2: 101.50

R1: 101.00/10

Current Price: 100.82

S1: 100.40/50

S2: 100.20

S3: 99.80

Rate continues to gain a foothold for a relief rally but light volumes hamper the potential and are a bit of a warning. Look for volumes to pick up in the coming days as traders continue to debate a recovery; stops likely to be rolled closer to the market. Late shorts will fuel advance short-term so look for offers at technical levels then buy the dips. Rally to the 102.50 area likely to attract a round of early long-liquidation but a correction under the 100.00 area should be short-lived.



GBP/USD Daily

R3: 1.9950

R2: 1.9900/10

R1: 1.9880/90

Current Price: 1.9852

S1: 1.9800

S2: 1.9740/50

S3: 1.9710/20

Rate has a very clear technical pattern and a slight rally is very likely but should hold the 1.9950-2.0000 area on a bounce. Traders note the rate is attracting cross-spreaders who are buying for Yen which should keep the upside pressure on near-term. Look for a test of the 1.9950 area to fail as that level is previous major S/R which has turned resistance. Stops likely under the 50 bar MA and a close under there likely to cause the longs to bail. Bears trying to get control and when they do it’s new lows I think.


Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.