Latest forex analysis

[ForexAnalysis]

Latest Forex Analysis - 25/02/08

Overnight Asia/Europe

• USD starts Asian firmer, extends gains into early New York
• Volumes are light
• S/R holds to start

Today’s Economic Reports

• 9:00 AM Existing Home Sales forecast 4.8M

Looking Ahead

• Overnight German GDP and IFO (expect contraction to continue)
• 7:30 AM CST Tuesday PPI forecast +0.4%, core +0.2%
• 9:00 AM CST Consumer Confidence forecast 83.0

Summary
The USD was modestly higher in overnight Asian trade but volumes remained light and ranges were tight. Heading into the European open the USD looked poised to advance to start the week as traders note light stops close-in triggered from CTA-type accounts in USD/JPY began the advance. Higher prints for the rate at 108.00 before offers capped the rally; traders say that firm equities overnight and technical trade helped the advance. Rumors that SWF will be buying Yen-denominated assets also helped the rate some desks report. GBP is lower to start but is finding support as expected around the 1.9600 handle in early trade; low prints at 1.9614 overnight Europe. Traders note stops close-in at the 1.9650 area triggered the fall but the rate is recovering to the 1.9640 area in early New York; expect resistance between 1.9650/60 areas. Aggressive traders can look to SELL GBP/USD anywhere over the 1.9660 area in my view and you may get another chance this morning. EURO is softer but still holding support around the 1.4800 area; low prints at 1.4793 on light volumes. Traders note that the rate is slipping a bit in sympathy with Cable but also note cross-spreading for Yen and Sterling may be pressuring the USD slightly higher this morning. In my view, the EURO is topping again and a pullback is likely from current levels; aggressive traders can SELL EURO/USD above the 1.4825 area and you might get another chance this morning as technical trade may lift the pair to challenge the resolve of the bears back at the high prints of 1.4842. In my view, the USD is technically ready to advance after last week’s shakeout but I’m expecting S/R to offer two-way trade all week. The Greenback will likely pull-back a bit at existing S/R levels as an overall advance takes place so day-traders and short-term traders may have a lot of opportunity this forex trading week; the USD may cover a lot of the same ground more than once. Look for an orderly decline in the Europeans and overhead resistance in USD/JPY to hold. Tomorrow’s data will likely show a bit of an increase in inflation pressures to help encourage a USD advance; today’s data will likely show continued weakness in the housing sector helping the USD bears.

USD/JPY Daily

R3: 108.50
R2: 108.20/30
R1: 108.00
Current Price: 107.79
S1: 107.20/30
S2: 107.00
S3: 106.80

Rate holds inside triangle consolidation again suggesting that at least one more attempt at the highs is in the works. Aggressive traders can liquidate longs into the 108.20/30 area if you get it today as the bearish sentiment is still enough to rotate the pair lower again to probe for residual stops. I think the coiling will result in an upside breakout but the last group of over-committed late shorts needs to make their move first. Housing data likely to create some volatility so be nimble if taking an initial position.

GBP/USD Daily
R3: 1.9720
R2: 1.9700/10
R1: 1.9680
Current Price: 1.9658
S1: 1.9600/10
S2: 1.9550/60
S3: 1.9520

Rate continues to meet upside resistance at the 1.9700 area, sell-off overnight aided by close-in stops suggesting the late longs were squeezed out. Rebound to the 1.9660 area on light volume so far and technically the rate is still an inside range day. Close under the 1.9600 area likely to pressure a bout of long-liquidation. Today’s data likely will create a rush of bids but if no new high happens expect a retreat; aggressive traders can sell above the 1.9660 area with confidence in my view.

Analysis by: Jason Alan Jankovsky in Association with The Forex Edge
Publisher: ForexPros.com

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 27/02/08

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD starts firm in Asia, get’s hammered in New York
• Closes on record lows against EURO
• PPI at 27 year high

Overnight Preview

• Look for a round of profit taking by the USD bears ASAP
• Move was very sudden and unexpected

Looking Ahead

• 7:30 AM CST Wednesday Durable Goods forecast -3.5%
• 9:00 AM CST Wednesday New Home Sales forecast 600K

Summary
After a firm start in Asia the USD came under some selling pressure overnight Europe as German and UK data was mildly supportive for those respective currencies. Stops initially drove early New York trade but once PPI was released the USD started into a decline that eventually became a freefall. PPI out at +1.0% front number and +0.4% core was way over expectations; y/y PPI running at a 7.4% rate the highest since Oct. 1981. Initially thought to be supportive for the Greenback as traders speculated that the Fed has less room to lower rates but as the day wore on stops above the markets in the majors proved to be the USD’s undoing. Stops were elected across the board suggesting that active selling in recent days is being squeezed out. Large sellers were no match for the rally and the USD broke through several layers of support making a mess of the charts and balance sheets. Cable saw the 1.9780 area give way with more stops layered above the 1.9800 handle for a high print at 1.9876 with waves of active buying. Traders note that the rate has tested the monthly opening range and expect a lot of follow-on buying overnight but I doubt the rate has more in it so early. EURO rallied into stops above the 1.4860/80 area with more at 1.4900 and 1.4920; shorts eventually throwing in the towel for a late New York print at 1.4984 a new lifetime high. If you would have told me that we would have seen lifetime highs in EURO after PPI came out strong I would have said impossible but there it is. Forex Traders are expecting more follow-on buying but like in Cable, I don’t think it will be there so soon. Record high closes attract profit-taking by longs so I would say that any follow-on buying would be late. USD/JPY remained coiling again and traders are beginning to think the rate will never leave the comfort of the 107.00 handle. Low prints late in New York at the strong support area of 107.10/20; highs overnight at 108.16. Stops on either side of the market still remain in play and with such a large move by the USD elsewhere is appears the USD/JPY will breakout for the stops under the market first. Look for the USD to consolidate overnight. US data tomorrow likely to be overshadowed by technical trade unless wildly USD supportive.

EURO/USD Daily
R3: ?
R2: ?
R1: 1.5000
Current Price: 1.4975
S1: 1.4920
S2: 1.4860/70
S3: 1.4820

You have got to be kidding but there it is: lifetime highs and a close over the previous high print. Volumes larger traders say suggesting the rate saw active buying as well as rampant short-covering. Stops completely cleared leaving order books thin; very small chance of follow-on buying but I would look for the longs to liquidate first; I think late longs will look for a dip to buy. Fallback into previous resistance may mean a head-fake in the works but the jury is still out. 1.5000 is psychological resistance but after that; ?

GBP/USD Daily

R3: 1.9940/50
R2: 1.9900/10
R1: 1.9880
Current Price: 1.9862
S1: 1.9800
S2: 1.9750/60
S3: 1.9700

Sell signal from yesterday completely negated and rate closes near monthly opening range. Sellers likely to try again on strength over the 1.9900 handle as that is previous resistance prior to the big break. If range is forming a sell over the 1.9900 area is your best bet near-term; stops likely above the 1.9950 area and again at 2.000. Longs must be getting nervous around current area so expect a pullback but that pullback will be bought. Close under the 1.9700 handle needed to negate this rally.

Analysis by: Jason Alan Jankovsky in Association with The Forex Edge
Publisher: ForexPros.com

 

[NEMO]

menakutkan la USD ni

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Forex Latest Analysis - 28/02/08

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD continues decline, EURO at lifetime highs
• Durables data worse than forecast
• Bernake comments hint at further fed ease

Overnight Preview

• USD likely to remain on the defense but consolidate
• Traders likely to square positions ahead of US GDP tomorrow

Looking Ahead

• 7:30 AM CST Thursday Q4 GDP forecast +0.7%
• No AM Broadcast Friday—out to Denver

Summary
As if the USD was suddenly determined to be the cause of cancer, traders sold, liquidated or simply ran from the Greenback the past 24 hours. Initially starting firm in Asia after Tuesday’s rout, the USD came under renewed attack as stops and aggressive buying fueled an advance by the majors into lofty levels; US data this morning adding to the bearish conditions. Durable Goods data came out below expectations suggesting that the US economy is worse than expected; traders added fuel to the fire and the EURO scored more lifetime highs as other pairs were also hit during New York trade. Fed Chair Bernake comments before congress underscored the market belief that the Fed intends to further cut rates to stimulate growth; Bernakes’ comments seen as suggesting the Fed will continue to ease all through 2008 and for another 100 BP. Forex Trading Traders saw a wave of aggressive buying in EURO to propel the rate to the 1.5100 handle during New York trade placing the rate a full 300 points higher since Monday’s open; a rather spectacular move and quite possibly an exhaustion top. High prints in EURO at 1.5145 and a firm close suggests another round of buyers waiting in the wings. GBP had a high print during the buying frenzy at 1.9974 but then reversed on the day to trade lower into the New York close; lows made near the close at 1.907. GBP saw Russian selling overnight and the daily studies are all overbought suggesting that Cable is done for the upside near-term. Aggressive traders can sell GBP and EURO into the close as the USD is likely bottomed for the week. USD/JPY fell into stops under the triangle consolidation overnight but managed to stave off a melt-down like the other pairs have seen; low prints at 105.94 were followed by a quick recovery to the 106.50 area suggesting the real-money demand seen under the 106.00 handle is still there. Traders look for the upside stops to be tested next as the amount of selling seen was significantly less than expected from such a long sideways coiling. Tomorrow is GDP and watch for book-squaring tonight, USD is looking very oversold in my view.

USD/JPY Daily

R3: 107.00/10
R2: 106.80
R1: 106.50/60
Current Price: 106.39
S1: 106.00/105.90
S2: 105.80
S3: 105.40/50

Brate breaks out but finds less than spectacular stops and finds support at previous are of semi-official demand and real money account demand at the 106.00 area. Although technically a breakout the volumes were not impressive suggesting that the move may be a head-fake. Look for inside range day closing higher and late shorts to put stops close-in overnight. Lows for the week may be in so look for the rate to back-and-fill the next 24-48 hours.

GBP/USD Daily

R3: 1.9990/2.000
R2: 1.9950
R1: 1.9880
Current Price: 1.9824
S1: 1.9780
S2: 1.9700/10
S3: 1.9650

Rate completes an inverted hammer formation and fails from the monthly opening range suggesting a reversal is in the works. Rally from the 1.9450 area was on relatively light volumes arguing for a bull-trap. Look for rate to fall back the next 24-48 hours; aggressive traders can sell GBP over the 1.9800 handle. Stops likely from late longs to be resting under the 1.9780 area and likely to be in size. Look for upside to attract selling and for a weak close again tomorrow.

Analysis by: Jason Alan Jankovsky in Association with The Forex Edge
Publisher: ForexPros.com

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Latest Forex Analysis - 3/03/08

Overnight Asia/Europe

• USD two-sided in technical trade
• Equities weaker pressuring USD/JPY
• Carry trade liquidation seen

Today’s Economic Reports

• 9:00 AM CST ISM Index forecast 49.0

Looking Ahead

• Later in the week: ISM Services, ADP private payrolls, NFP and Housing numbers
• Eurozone GDP Tuesday overnight

Summary
The USD starts the week sideways in two-way technical trade for the most part after taking a beating last week; traders note that liquidation of carry trades is helping the USD as non-USD pairs are sold for Yen most notably Sterling-Yen. Traders are selling most major pairs and buying Yen which appears to be liquidation pressures as crosses reach near-all-time highs and a lot of money was made on the move. Some book-squaring is noted also as several fundamentals are due out this week that might create volatility for USD players; beige book is out this week and OPEC is meeting also. All US data due is expected to show continuing contraction in the US economy which is pressuring the USD but some traders remind that a 75 BP interest rate cut by the Fed is fully factored into prices now suggesting that a case of “buy the rumor/sell the fact” may be building momentum as this week’s news may already be completely factored in. Should that be the case a sharp rally may be in store and is likely given the current oversold nature of the USD after last week’s break. Cable is solidly trading the 1.9800 handle; high prints at 1.9894 and lows at 1.9807. Forex Traders note that the rate came on the board in Asia on the defense and found stops close-in at the 1.9820 area; most likely from late longs set on Friday. EURO continues to trade with a buoyant tone but traders note that offers were plentiful above the 1.5200 handle for a high print at 1.5238; stops were close-in at 1.5180 area for a low print at 1.5160. Bids are said to be layered under 1.5150 with stops a risk under the 1.5130 area but with the recent strength in EURO traders expect the downside to be limited. In my view, the EURO is overbought and a correction back to test the 1.4800 area where the breakout started building for the upside would be reasonable to test the tenacity of the bulls. USD/JPY fell to another low to start the week as Yen is bought across the board but the low prints at 102.60 put the rate at multi-year lows; a significant risk for an upside correction. In my view, the USD is severely oversold and euphoria is driving trade. The late USD seller is at risk and I would be looking for the USD to recover into the end of the week.


USD/JPY Daily

R3: 104.20
R2: 104.00
R1: 103.50/60
Current Price: 102.96
S1: 102.60
S2: 102.00
S3: 101.50/60

Rate now about 100 points above a 12 year low; significant support seen at the 101.50 area and a short-covering rally is almost a given at that point. Aggressive traders can look to be buyers on further weakness to the low 102.00 handle numbers; a slam-dunk buy in my view on a dip to the 101.50/60 area. Stops a risk above the previous support areas at 103.60 and 104.00; traders note that there is trend-line support at today’s lows. Look for a short-squeeze during the week.


EURO/USD Daily

R3: ?
R2: ?
R1: 1.5230/40
Current Price: 1.5202
S1: 1.5150/60
S2: 1.5100
S3: 1.5060

Rate has three highs at the 1.5220/30 area suggesting that resistance is forming around the 1.4230/40 area, traders note that the rate appears firm at these numbers but the recent run-up may be out of steam and some desks are resigned to a pullback sooner or later. Buy the dip seems to be the strategy/rumor but the quality of that buying is a concern; lot’s of model/momentum accounts some desks say. Look for the rate to suffer a sell-off this week.

Analysis by: Jason Alan Jankovsky in Association with The Forex Edge
Publisher: ForexPros.com

 

[ForexAnalysis]

Latest Forex Analysis - 06/03/08

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD has volatile day
• US data no help
• EURO sets another record high

Overnight Preview

• Traders are watching ECB closely, expect hawkish rhetoric
• Book squaring likely

Looking Ahead

• ECB and BOE rate announcements early Thursday, press conferences to follow
• 9:00 AM CST Pending Home Sales forecast –1.5%

Summary
After a solid overnight session of strong gains the USD reversed to trade lower in the New York session blowing through several layers of hard-won resistance. Big news on the day is EURO at a new lifetime high of 1.5304 on average volumes. Traders say that only a few large names were seen bidding the market higher suggesting that everyone else is sidelined. Several shops report that stops again were the first driver triggering at 1.5260 are and again at 1.5290 area but no follow-through at the highs and offers kept the rate dropping all afternoon for a post-London fix low at 1.5254; close in the 1.5260 area is below the previous high suggesting some selling pressure is coming on. Most forex traders don’t see much more upside despite potentially hawkish ECB rhetoric on Thursday; one trader asks “How Hawkish can Trichet be with EURO at 1.5300?” Today’s US data was disappointing and no doubt helped with the downside reversal today; ADP private payrolls suggest a poor NFP on Friday. ISM data today showed the second month of contraction adding fuel to the argument that the US is in a recession. Both news items contributed to a sharp sell-off from the highs seen ahead of the New York open. EURO rallied from a low of 1.5144 to post lifetime highs, Cable rallied off a 1.9718 low to post a high print at 1.9969, USD/JPY posted a 104.20 high before turning lower to post a low for the day in New York at 103.27. Other USD pairs suffered the same and across the board the USD was unable to hold gains anywhere. Traders remind that the USD is oversold and due for a relief rally. With shorts exposed to potential short-covering it would be reasonable to expect a bout of book-squaring ahead of more US data tomorrow and Friday, Pending home sales likely to be soft again but look for signs of a bottom forming. Bothe the ECB and the BOE have rate announcements tomorrow and traders expect both banks to hold rates steady. The statements will be heavily scrutinized for clues moving forward but no one expects the ECB to lower rates soon. Look for two-way action to consolidate USD ahead of tomorrow.

EURO/USD Daily

R3: ?
R2: ?
R1: 1.5300/10
Current Price: 1.5268
S1: 1.5240/50
S2: 1.5200
S3: 1.5140/50

Rate scores another high with no relief in sight near-term. Sentiment getting extreme and regardless of how bullish someone is they are staying away as this kind of price action is very unlikely and unusual. Rally off the lows driven by model and momentum accounts first getting stopped out of longs and then re-setting them traders say. Volumes into the highs not impressive and stops still building on either side making for potentially violent trade. Aggressive traders can sell over the 1.5200 handle.

GBP/USD Daily

R3: 2.0050
R2: 2.0000
R1: 1.9950/60
Current Price: 1.9907
S1: 1.9860/70
S2: 1.9820
S3: 1.9780

Rate nearly engulfs the past five trading days after starting lower on good volume, upside move just looks unconvincing as resistance caps the rally even after close-in stops were elected. Look for inside range day tomorrow as no one was looking for an upside move like this today. Traders caution that the BOE may say something dovish hinting at a rate cut leaving the GBP vulnerable to a pullback. Stops likely all over the place on both sides as the volatility is getting large.

Analysis by: Jason Alan Jankovsky in Association with The Forex Edge
Publisher: ForexPros.com

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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[ForexAnalysis]

Latest Forex Analysis - 11/03/08

Daily Forex Analysis


Overnight Asia/Europe

• USD recovers in Asia, falls in late Europe
• German ZEW better than expected, EURO rallies to new high
• Cable follows EURO higher

Today’s Economic Reports

• 7:30 AM CDT Balance of Trade forecast -59.5B

Looking Ahead

• Friday CPI forecast +0.3%, core +0.2%

Summary
The USD is softer this morning after staging an early recovery in Asia. Initially trading to highs for the week against Cable and showing signs of potential upside against the other majors the USD came under selling pressure in late European trade after the release of German ZEW Sentiment date. Although the number was lower at -32 vs. -39.5 last month it was above median forecasts of -40.0 giving traders a boost to buy EURO. EURO rallied on the news first finding stops above the 1.5400/10 area and then with active buying rallied above the previous highs last Friday for a new lifetime high at 1.5496 before offers expected ahead of the 1.5500 figure capped the move. Russian names, US investment names were seen on the bid traders say; offers were from profit-taking by longs and option defense ahead of the 1.5500 number. EURO remains firm ahead of today’s Balance of Trade data due out this morning but traders don’t see any surprises in the works. The slowdown in the USD economy will likely have slowed the trade deficit so even a better-than-expected number is actually “expected”; traders suggest that another round of USD short-covering may result but sentiment remains almost 100% bearish—which is scary in my view. When the EURO finally corrects it could be an absolute blood bath in my view. Cable followed EURO higher with Middle-Eastern names seen buying as the pair rallied into stops at the 2.0150 area for a high print at 2.0214 before falling back. Opening New York at 2.0270 area suggests a bit of selling pressure is coming on as the rate hold below previous printed high and below the 50% fib defense. Traders note that volumes in both GBO and EURO were average so far today. USD/JPY has found good support after seeing a break lower in Asia. Low prints at 101.41 were bought by semi-official names and real money account and the rally extended into the 102.20 area just ahead of the New York open. Stops were seen close in at 102.20/30 for a high print at 102.33 with more stops said to be resting at 102.50. Today’s US data is most likely going to be a non-event although a very good number could spark a modest USD rally; most traders are watching CPI on Friday. Speculation that the US Fed will cut rates by 75 BP remains high and a strong inflation number may stifle that enthusiasm.

EURO/USD Forex Daily

R3: ?
R2: ?
R1: 1.5490/1.5500
Current Price: 1.5473
S1: 1.5400/10
S2: 1.5380
S3: 1.5340/50
Rate powers higher in a relentless march to score high after high; all this bullish sentiment is an accident waiting to happen in my view. A correction is long overdue and a liquidating break is inevitable sooner or later; be very careful holding longs. Aggressive traders can sell 1.5450 area. Stops likely rolled-up under the 1.5350 area and late longs likely to have their in range. If option defense can’t cap the move for a correction the rate has stops from shorts likely at the 1.5520 area.

GBP/USD Forex Daily

R3: 2.0280
R2: 2.0250
R1: 2.0210/20
Current Price: 2.0160
S1: 2.0120
S2: 2.0080
S3: 2.0040/50
Rate finds offers capping strength in the 2.0200/20 area as expected and is falling back to test support at or around the 2.0100 area; look for a reversal later should stops be found under the 2.0080 area from late longs. Strong sell signal given today also suggests rate is topping, aggressive traders can sell above the 2.0180 area if we get it again today. Stops above the market at 2.0240/50 area likely out of reach today. Close under the 2.0080 area opens the door for a test of the 2.0000 area in my view.

Analysis by: Jason Alan Jankovsky in Association with The Forex Edge
Publisher: ForexPros.com


Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.